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da ruse:Quote:
Originally Posted by FPS_Russia
"Beginning in October, 2015, Powerball® became an even larger combined large jackpot game and cash game. Every Wednesday and Saturday night at 10:59 p.m. Eastern Time, we draw five white balls out of a drum with 69 balls and one red ball out of a drum with 26 red balls."
I know a dude who showed me $80 in quick picks and not a single powerball pick was over 25. I see druffs and they're under 25 also.
Powerball goes up to 69 right? If so then that's odd. Odd my ass that's straight up fraud alert!
edit nevermind
Powerball's hard
http://powerball-simulator.com/
http://money.cnn.com/2016/01/09/news...pot/index.html
$900 million Powerball is really worth $558 million -- and that's BEFORE taxes.
Whole thing is a scam.
Not a scam at all! The winner can choose the option to take 900 million over 29 years. How is this a scam? It's simply the winners choiceQuote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
When is this draw?
Might cross the border if it goes to a billion.
The odds and payouts are publicly announced beforehand. Therefore, it isn't a scam.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
On the other hand, unless the jackpot is above about $2 or $3 billion, it's a bad EV play. But what other opportunity does an ordinary person have to become a multi-millionaire with little to no effort? That's why most people buy those tickets.
Ten bucks for 5 tix and only hit one number lol
Most people are unaware of the "asterisk" that you're not really getting $900 million, but rather $900 million paid at zero interest over 20 years. That's not a real $900 million, because money devalues over time.Quote:
Originally Posted by MumblesBadlyThe odds and payouts are publicly announced beforehand. Therefore, it isn't a scam.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
On the other hand, unless the jackpot is above about $2 or $3 billion, it's a bad EV play. But what other opportunity does an ordinary person have to become a multi-millionaire with little to no effort? That's why most people buy those tickets.
It's a dirty trick. If they're giving you $558 million as the lump sum because that's what $900 million is really worth when paid over 20 years, then you're winning $558 million, not $900 million.
Airballed everything, but look at how this one was kinda close:
Actual: 16, 19, 32, 34, 57, Powerball 13
Ticket: 13, 19, 36, 43, 57, Powerball 14
So looking in chronological order:
- My first number missed by 3
- My second number hit the second #
- My third number missed by 4
- My fourth number was the reverse of the actual fourth # (34/43)
- My fifth number hit the fifth #
- My Powerball was one more than the actual
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rXPMYA7EqYE
:gay
Most people buying lottery tickets have no fucking clue how bad the odds are even if you recite them to them verbatim. And this is largely due to a psychological bias that humans have regarding the likelihood of low probability events. Research has shown that people usually consistently overestimate the likelihood of low probability good outcomes (e.g. winning the Powerball jackpot), while underestimating the outcome of low probability bad outcomes (e.g. being hit by lightning). Meaning, even if you tell people the correct odds, they use more favorable ones for themselves in their own internal analysis that leads to their decisions.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan DruffMost people are unaware of the "asterisk" that you're not really getting $900 million, but rather $900 million paid at zero interest over 20 years. That's not a real $900 million, because money devalues over time.Quote:
Originally Posted by MumblesBadly
It's a dirty trick. If they're giving you $558 million as the lump sum because that's what $900 million is really worth when paid over 20 years, then you're winning $558 million, not $900 million.
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science...60982211011912
All true, but at the very least they should be honest about the prize you're receiving.Quote:
Originally Posted by MumblesBadlyMost people buying lottery tickets have no fucking clue how bad the odds are even if you recite them to them verbatim. And this is largely due to a psychological bias that humans have regarding the likelihood of low probability events. Research has shown that people usually consistently overestimate the likelihood of low probability good outcomes (e.g. winning the Powerball jackpot), while underestimating the outcome of low probability bad outcomes (e.g. being hit by lightning). Meaning, even if you tell people the correct odds, they use more favorable ones for themselves in their own internal analysis that leads to their decisions.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science...60982211011912
$900 million and $558 million are two very different numbers. Learning that $900 million is actually $900 million only if you take it over 20 years at no interest is a pretty sobering reality, and I guarantee that most people buying these tickets honestly believed that they are shooting for a real $900 million, not $900 million split over 20 years and not allowed to earn interest until you receive each piece.
Can you get 900 million, yes or no?Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan DruffMost people are unaware of the "asterisk" that you're not really getting $900 million, but rather $900 million paid at zero interest over 20 years. That's not a real $900 million, because money devalues over time.Quote:
Originally Posted by MumblesBadly
It's a dirty trick. If they're giving you $558 million as the lump sum because that's what $900 million is really worth when paid over 20 years, then you're winning $558 million, not $900 million.
Thanks for posting the numbers here. The odds of winning when buying a few tickets is so low that I don't even bother to take the time to check if any of the few I buy in cases like this are winners unless I later hear in passing, such as on the news, that the lottery officials are waiting for a winner from the store where I bought my tickets comes forward to claim their prize.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
You do realize there's many more prizes than just the big one right?Quote:
Originally Posted by MumblesBadlyThanks for posting the numbers here. The odds of winning when buying a few tickets is so low that I don't even bother to take the time to check if any of the few I buy in cases like this are winners unless I later hear in passing, such as on the news, that the lottery officials are waiting for a winner from the store where I bought my tickets comes forward to claim their prize.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Yes, but I do eventually go through them after I've collected enough to make it worth my time to visit the websites to check the numbers. And I do have a $2 winner from Idaho from this past summer that I'll cash when I travel through there again while over the road.Quote:
Originally Posted by jsearles22You do realize there's many more prizes than just the big one right?Quote:
Originally Posted by MumblesBadly
Current powerball game is even harder than this simulator is showing, the jackpot they are using is 1 in 175m but they changed that recently to 1 in 292 million...Quote:
Originally Posted by FPS_Russia
Ticket sales accelerate faster than the size of the jackpot. This prevents anyone from ever gaining an edge. An exception could be if some hard-to-imagine fluke event depressed sales without postponing the drawing, or possibly inside information about the selection distribution. Maybe you can sneak into lottery HQ and fill some of the balls with helium.
Can't believe nobody won this shit. $1.3 billion is the current estimate for Wednesday but $1.5 billion or higher wouldn't surprise me the way the tickets are selling.
Wow. (Even the taxes/lump sum shouldn't make a difference now...not like they did at $900mm either, but c'mon!)...and agree with BnP...this is going higher than $1.3B (Fever Alert)....Quote:
Originally Posted by BeerAndPoker
nobody won lol.....unreal
was a lot more fun than me shooting it off on acr
good game pfa lotto pros
cant win if you don't play!
FiveThirtyEight nails it again! From this past July:Quote:
Originally Posted by Forum WarsWow. (Even the taxes/lump sum shouldn't make a difference now...not like they did at $900mm either, but c'mon!)...and agree with BnP...this is going higher than $1.3B (Fever Alert)....Quote:
Originally Posted by BeerAndPoker
New Powerball Odds Could Give America Its First Billion-Dollar Jackpot
By WALT HICKEY
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...ollar-jackpot/
But I bet even the author of the article is surprised it only took 6 months.
Quote:
Based on a basic model I built that simulates Powerball jackpots over the next five years of play, the odds change makes a huge, huge difference. Under the old (1 in 175,223,510) odds, there was a billion-dollar lottery in only 8.5 percent of the simulated five-year periods. But under the new (1 in 292,201,338) odds, there was a billion-dollar lottery in 63.4 percent of the simulated five-year periods.
Would take the 1.3 billion over the 20 years so I don't busto it all within 5 years. That's presuming the payments wouldn't stop if I died.
1.3 billion also sounds like a challenge for the greatest con artists on earth to somehow get that draw rigged.
You don't rig the draw, you strong-arm the winner whitey bulger-style.Quote:
Originally Posted by Lord of the Fraud
Quote:
Originally Posted by Crowe DiddlyYou don't rig the draw, you strong-arm the winner whitey bulger-style.Quote:
Originally Posted by Lord of the Fraud
Had to google wtf you were on about, but it led me to a film called Black Mass, which is auto stored on my tivo box. Rated highly on imdb. Shall give it a whirl later.
$1.4 billion now.....but the lottery's RNG might also be rigged but we'll all keep buying tickets b/c #whynot
Jackpot-fixing scandal isn't stopping Powerball's success; watchdog calls astronomical $1.4 billion prize a 'scam'
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/nati...3237?cid=bitlyQuote:
Most players, instead of choosing their own numbers, buy "Quick Pick" tickets that feature randomly generated numbers.
Those tickets are often duplicated, meaning lottery players are receiving the same losing numbers as players in other states, Nettles said.
"This is a scam," Nettles said. "With the odds being what they are, it's a scam."
So I just looked at my powerball ticket from Saturday, I hit the powerball only.. $12.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shizzmoney
MP3 file: http://k003.kiwi6.com/hotlink/h6s57wib1v/scam.mp3
http://toddwitteles.com/pics/chucktalk.gif
Win the lottery for even $500k in a black neighborhood and you better fear for your life.
http://www.walb.com/story/31020589/r...-home-invasion