Originally Posted by
Dan Druff
To me this isn't particularly complicated.
Israel has wanted to do this ever since 10/7/23. With Trump in office, they figured they had a legit shot. By their own admission, this plan has been in the works for 8 months. That puts preparations starting in mid-October 2024 -- right around when it was starting to look like Trump was the favorite to win the election.
I'm guessing Trump has known most of the way -- possibly soon after he got re-elected, and has just been quietly waiting for Israel to make its move. This is actually ideal for the US, because they don't have to send any troops or actively join the war, and at most they will quietly provide funding or weaponry.
According to reports, Iran lost their 3 top nuclear scientists, and the facilities have severely been damaged. If they attempt to repair and restart, the same thing can happen again.
I'm assuming that Israel's goal here is to make Iran realize that they're going to get the shit bombed out of them every time they attempt this nuke program from now on, so not to bother. It's also probably a message along the lines of, "You keep fucking with us? We're gonna fuck with you."
Iran has to be a bit shaken by this. Not only did they lose a number of top IGRC guys, but their own facilities were used against them to disable or destroy their anti-aircraft weaponry, as Mossad apparently gained access to this stuff within Iran, which is crazy.
This was basically punching the bully really hard in the face, knocking him on his ass, and saying, "Stop what you've been doing, or you're getting it much worse next time."
The question becomes what Israel does if Iran puts up more of a retaliation than just firing some rockets into Tel Aviv. If it gets to the point where Israel has to start obliterating Tehran itself from the air, this can get really, really messy. But it's probably a gamble they're willing to take. The alternative is to allow Iran to develop nukes, which will pretty much be game over for Israel's deterrent power in the region.