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By the way, if you are pessimistic about the GOP's Senate candidates, and think they'll go 0-4 in the tossups (NV/AZ/GA/PA), you can get +900 right now on betting 49.
The big problem here is Laxalt. You're fading his likely victory, and even if he does get upset, then you have to fade all 3 other close races. I think you're much better off just betting on a 50-51 combo, or betting on just 50.
Here is another market you might want to look at on Predictit -- how many incumbent Senators will be reelected.
The maximum is 28, yet laughably there are (1 cent) markets for 29/30.
The 28 incumbents running are as follows. I will bold the ones in races likely to be close.
John Thune SD
Tim Scott SC
Ron Wyden OR
James Lankford OK
Chuck Schumer NY
John Hoeven ND
Chris Van Hollen MD
John Kennedy LA
Rand Paul KY
Jerry Moran KS
Todd Young IN
Tammy Duckworth IL
Mike Crapo ID
Chuck Grassley IA
Brian Schatz HI
Richard Blumenthal CT
Alex Padilla CA
John Boozeman AR
Lisa Murkowski AK
Mike Lee UT
Patty Murray WA
Marco Rubio FL
Michael Bennett CO
Maggie Hassan NH
Ron Johnson WI
Catherine Cortez Masto NV
Mark Kelly AZ
Raphael Warnock GA
So 24-28 winners is basically a lock.
The way it looks right now, Johnson, Kelly, and Warnock will win, and Masto will lose. That would make 27 the most likely outcome.
Here is the market: https://www.predictit.org/markets/de...lected-in-2022
This does allow you to bet on the overall Senate outcome without having to worry about the Fetterman/Oz fiasco in Pennsylvania, which is probably the least predictable of the close races.
However, I'm not really crazy about these markets. 26 and 27 are both +300, which don't pay nearly as well as the 50/51 overall GOP Senators markets. The 28 market, which is +669, seems good on the surface, but keep in mind you can get Masto for +200 now, which means you're basically doing a 4-Senator parlay on Masto/Kelly/Warnock/Johnson, which makes the +669 less exciting. This is especially true because you can get +900 on 49 GOP Senators, which is actually a semi-likely result if Masto pulls it off, so you're better off betting on 49 there.
I think I'll skip this market.
By the way, don't underestimate the willingness to split-ticket vote nowadays.
We saw a lot of that in 2020, which is why Dems had a horrible House result despite Biden winning. Not a single "lean GOP" House candidate lost in 2020, yet many "lean Dem" candidates went down to defeat, and nearly all of the tossups went the GOP's way. Even a few "safe Dem" seats went to the GOP! It was a complete disaster.
This occurred because many voters, especially moderate suburban women, hated Trump but were turned off by Democrats, so they felt that Biden without all three houses was the most desirable outcome.
The same might happen here in places like Arizona.
Arizona is almost over in both races. Kari Lake will win by 10 and Masters will pull it out as well.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
We haver to remember to literally add 5 points for the (R) to almost every poll except Trafalger. Even RCP is calling it a toss up right now and pretty much every "toss up" is going to go republican. We have seen this movie before. They will lie cheat and steal and are more desperate than they have ever been to try to misinform.
The red wave is getting bigger by the day as crunch time approaches.
Also problem is that Walker in GA and Oz in PA are now betting favorites per a radio report this morning (possibly from a guy who is on a nationwide radio show and founded Outkick). Polls are closing quick in AZ as well and while I think Thiel's buddy Masters is a clown for sure Kelly is potentially going to be a victim of the Biden backlash over the border and gas prices (not to mention Phx has the highest inflation of the entire country currently). Its literally shrunk massively in the last week plus and thats from 538. Masters is coming out of nowhere to pull even given another couple weeks he could very well win by 5% on the 8thQuote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Mastriano is on Tim Pool tonight I gotta watch this one.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xDzm0guKgig
https://nypost.com/2022/10/21/poll-s...overnors-race/Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan DruffYou're correct that NYC has become a shithole, much like several other big cities which had improved over the years. For example, I haven't been to San Francisco with Benjamin since he was a toddler. I would love to show him SF, hang off the cable car, and walk/drive around the city with him. However, the place has become a shithole, so I don't even bother.Quote:
Originally Posted by country978
This might be an election where backlash against Democrats for the degradation of big cities is more of a factor than people think. That's one problem with this election, in fact. There are a number of factors making it hard to predict. The GOP has the Roe thing and several extreme candidates working against it (to where the latter might even affect other races), and Democrats have incompetent Biden, inflation, crime, and over-wokeness working against them.
But I just don't see Hochul losing in NY. From what I've observed in recent years, NY is one of those states where Republicans briefly get excited about making inroads, only to fall way short of whatever chance they thought they had. George Pataki and his second lieutenant governor are still the last Republicans to be elected to statewide office in NY.
Zeldin now up 2 points in New York!
Quote:
Originally Posted by NaturalBornHustler
I just saw crist get booed off the stage inside of 5 minutes of the debate start. Trying to tell the crowd ron was wrong on covid.
Anything that isn't -500 on ron is a good bet
Any place to get action down on Desantis other than Predictit?
Predictit's fee structure makes it cost prohibitive to make -500 type bets, even if that's a good line.
Desantis is a freaking lock to crush this.
He is popular, Florida is increasingly red, this will be a bad election for Democrats, Crist is a shit candidate, and Crist picked a horrible running mate.
Crist decided to go woke and pick a Hispanic female as a running mate. The problem? The existing lieutenant governor is already a Hispanic female! So he's not going to win any votes via this dumb identity politicking move. But even worse, his running mate Karla Hernandez-Mats has a ton of baggage, between far-left positions (highly unpopular in Florida), past pro-Castro statements, is a longtime teachers union stooge (again, very unpopular), and worst yet, was supportive of an awful pedo teacher who was raping 14-year-old girls for years.
Desantis takes this by at least 8, and possibly 10+.
Regarding Zedlin, I just don't see him doing it. It would be awesome if deep blue NY ended up with a Republican governor in a 1994-style shocker, but I just can't picture it happening. I think we're going to see something similar to what we did in the 2021 NJ race -- an unexpectedly close one where the Democrat pulls it out, but it's by an embarrassingly thin margin.
I think a lot of you are underestimating how much hatred there is for Republicans throughout NY. Biden won by 23 points (!!) in 2020. Unlike Oregon, there is no third party candidate dragging votes away from the Dem.
Oregon is already red, except for Portland. Nine counties so far have voted to secede from Oregon and join Idaho....and a couple more counties are expected to do the same this election day.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
John Stossel just did a short piece on election betting markets. He mentioned a few sites.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
https://youtu.be/y3QXA0b81PU
Fetterman owns you cucks
Fetterman debate was a disaster. I'm shocked they put him up there. It was obvious what would happen.
While he would take some criticism for avoiding the debate, actually doing it and being completely unable to string a sentence together is far worse.
I think quack Dr. Oz was just given a huge gift here, and will probably win now.
Everett Stern, an inconsequential independent PA candidate for US Senate, has decided to drop out because he's afraid Fetterman is going to lose.
https://twitter.com/EverettStern1/st...76258693492736
When it comes to polls if the Repubs are even, they are leavin'.....and they have been even in PA for the past month pretty much. Tonight just sealed Frankenstein's fate.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Focus groups favored Oz 85-15, that is how bad it was. The fracking question.......just an unmitigated disaster.
I know 2 very successful African Americans (50 mill +) here in GA and they are completely institutionalized by their TVs,. They hate Hershel; and both these guys are former athletes. The propaganda machine nukes Walker daily on t.v. and they lap it up. Slurp, slurp...
Antidotal, but i don't see how he wins if he can't get support from what should be a slam dunk demographic.
You want to be all in on the incumbent negro.
Agree. One of the dumber moves from either party in recent history, which says a lot.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff