So coronavirus is definitely going to kill a few of us.

i should say i don't blame trump for this, and druff's right, we might not be in any better situation with a democrat president. i don't think this is a democrat vs. republican thing.

that said, trump's aversion to science and predisposition to thinking that the deep state is out to get him was not helpful.

we'll never know if trump would have ordered domestic manufacturers to produce ventilators sooner if he believed this threat was serious, rather than something that would miss us. maybe he would have shut down travel from anywhere, which, in hindsight, he should have.

trump telling us from the start that this is not a big deal and will not even hit us was also terrible as it may have increased the spread of the virus due to people dismissing its severity. can't prove that one though and i kind of doubt it cause no one takes him seriously.

If 40% of the USA population gets this and 1% die, that is over 1,300,000. Saying 100,000 will die is a pipe dream.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by blake

trump telling us from the start that this is not a big deal and will not even hit us was also terrible as it may have increased the spread of the virus due to people dismissing its severity. can't prove that one though and i kind of doubt it cause no one takes him seriously.

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You don't feel that some/most on the left would have done everything to discredit him and react the other way? Hasn't this been the M.O. of their party since day 1?

He says right, they go left. He says up, they go down. The sky is blue, no its green. There is 4 years of evidence of throwing everything in his face to try to derail him from his objectives. I'm not surprised though. He isn't a politician and part of their inner political circle so why would they give him a chance I guess

Quote:

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Originally Posted by blake

i should say i don't blame trump for this, and druff's right, we might not be in any better situation with a democrat president. i don't think this is a democrat vs. republican thing.

that said, trump's aversion to science and predisposition to thinking that the deep state is out to get him was not helpful.

we'll never know if trump would have ordered domestic manufacturers to produce ventilators sooner if he believed this threat was serious, rather than something that would miss us. maybe he would have shut down travel from anywhere, which, in hindsight, he should have.

trump telling us from the start that this is not a big deal and will not even hit us was also terrible as it may have increased the spread of the virus due to people dismissing its severity. can't prove that one though and i kind of doubt it cause no one takes him seriously.

---

how many times are you gonna write the same exact post? do you think adding more words is the way to go? we get it, you're suffering from TDS, shut it down

Quote:

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Originally Posted by dwai

Quote:

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Originally Posted by blake

i should say i don't blame trump for this, and druff's right, we might not be in any better situation with a democrat president. i don't think this is a democrat vs. republican thing.

that said, trump's aversion to science and predisposition to thinking that the deep state is out to get him was not helpful.

we'll never know if trump would have ordered domestic manufacturers to produce ventilators sooner if he believed this threat was serious, rather than something that would miss us. maybe he would have shut down travel from anywhere, which, in hindsight, he should have.

trump telling us from the start that this is not a big deal and will not even hit us was also terrible as it may have increased the spread of the virus due to people dismissing its severity. can't prove that one though and i kind of doubt it cause no one takes him seriously.

---

how many times are you gonna write the same exact post? do you think adding more words is the way to go? we get it, you're suffering from TDS, shut it down

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dwai, it’s batshit crazy that you spend all day on a site and somehow manage to contribute literally nothing. how are you adding anything to the discussion?

sometimes it almost seems like you’re not that bright.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by blake

Quote:

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Originally Posted by dwai

how many times are you gonna write the same exact post? do you think adding more words is the way to go? we get it, you're suffering from TDS, shut it down

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dwai, it’s batshit crazy that you spend all day on a site and somehow manage to contribute literally nothing. how are you adding anything to the discussion?

sometimes it almost seems like you’re not that bright.

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ur mom goes to college

Quote:

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Originally Posted by dwai

Quote:

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Originally Posted by blake

dwai, it’s batshit crazy that you spend all day on a site and somehow manage to contribute literally nothing. how are you adding anything to the discussion?

sometimes it almost seems like you’re not that bright.

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ur mom goes to college

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got me.

Chinese data...

:lol2

Embedded Tweet

Quote:

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Originally Posted by splitthis

If 40% of the USA population gets this and 1% die, that is over 1,300,000. Saying 100,000 will die is a pipe dream.

---

As of right now.

818,000 worldwide confirmed cases and 39,784 deaths.
So current death rate is hovering around 5% with 605,000 cases still active and only 173,000 recovered.... death rate can only increase in the short term.

Italy 11% death rate with 3/4's of their cases active.
Spain about 9% death rate with 3/4's still active.

If your hospitals are overwhelmed expect the death rate to mimic Italy and Spain.

1% is extremely optimistic IMO. Depends on how many asymptomatic that have not been recorded.

chris cuomo has it

mike francesa, a huge trump supporter who thought the mueller investigation was a witch hunt, isn't pleased

"We’re watching one thing happen in our city on the 11 o’clock news every night, we’re watching people die, and now we know people who died. And we’re not seeing one or two people die now in our neighborhood, we’re seeing them die by the tens, and twenties, by the day. They’re bringing people out of the hospital in Queens in body bags, five minutes from where he grew up. We here know this isn’t right. You get the guys in the metropolitan area and ask the cops in New York if it’s right right now, ask the firemen in New York answering those ambulance calls if it’s right right now. Ask the nurses and the doctors in that hospital if it’s right right now, they know it’s not. They don’t have the supplies they need. So don’t give me the My Pillow guy doing a song and dance up here on a Monday afternoon when people are dying in Queens. Get the stuff made, get the stuff where it needs to go, and get the boots on the ground. Treat this like the crisis it is.”

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Salty_Aus

Quote:

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Originally Posted by splitthis

If 40% of the USA population gets this and 1% die, that is over 1,300,000. Saying 100,000 will die is a pipe dream.

---

As of right now.

818,000 worldwide confirmed cases and 39,784 deaths.
So current death rate is hovering around 5% with 605,000 cases still active and only 173,000 recovered.... death rate can only increase in the short term.

Italy 11% death rate with 3/4's of their cases active.
Spain about 9% death rate with 3/4's still active.

If your hospitals are overwhelmed expect the death rate to mimic Italy and Spain.

1% is extremely optimistic IMO. Depends on how many asymptomatic that have not been recorded.

---

That’s why I am saying 100k deaths is a pipe dream. On a brighter note, I still have to go into patients homes and high rises and talked to Johnny and he has a N95 mask for me. I have been pondering and praying how I could protect myself and my prayers have been answered. Being a hoarder has its perks.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Salty_Aus

Quote:

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Originally Posted by splitthis

If 40% of the USA population gets this and 1% die, that is over 1,300,000. Saying 100,000 will die is a pipe dream.

---

As of right now.

818,000 worldwide confirmed cases and 39,784 deaths.
So current death rate is hovering around 5% with 605,000 cases still active and only 173,000 recovered.... death rate can only increase in the short term.

Italy 11% death rate with 3/4's of their cases active.
Spain about 9% death rate with 3/4's still active.

If your hospitals are overwhelmed expect the death rate to mimic Italy and Spain.

1% is extremely optimistic IMO. Depends on how many asymptomatic that have not been recorded.

---

I've seen recent data that death rate is likely under 1%. Somewhere between 0.5-1%. Keep in mind the prevailing belief is that in most countries the majority of cases are not even diagnosed.

Also still waiting on birth of my child (we induce this Saturday if nothing).

Hospital not allowing any visitors except support people in Ontario. If I show as much as a cough I won't be allowed inside the hospital for delivery. I'm also not allowed to leave the hospital room and if I do I cannot return... finally if its a C section I'm not allowed to be there except afterwards...

Quote:

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Originally Posted by BetCheckBet

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Salty_Aus

As of right now.

818,000 worldwide confirmed cases and 39,784 deaths.
So current death rate is hovering around 5% with 605,000 cases still active and only 173,000 recovered.... death rate can only increase in the short term.

Italy 11% death rate with 3/4's of their cases active.
Spain about 9% death rate with 3/4's still active.

If your hospitals are overwhelmed expect the death rate to mimic Italy and Spain.

1% is extremely optimistic IMO. Depends on how many asymptomatic that have not been recorded.

---

I've seen recent data that death rate is likely under 1%. Somewhere between 0.5-1%. Keep in mind the prevailing belief is that in most countries the majority of cases are not even diagnosed.

Also still waiting on birth of my child (we induce this Saturday if nothing).

Hospital not allowing any visitors except support people in Ontario. If I show as much as a cough I won't be allowed inside the hospital for delivery. I'm also not allowed to leave the hospital room and if I do I cannot return... finally if its a C section I'm not allowed to be there except afterwards...

---

Good luck. If it is any reassurance it appears that new mothers and infants are not a group that this disease is particularly deadly for, even when they get it. There are a small number of anecdotal reports, but the exception proves the rule.

If 40% of the US population was infected I agree that much more than 100,000 people will die. I think that we will slowly get more serious about non-pharmaceutical intervention and virus spread will eventually slow down so that in this first wave the number of people ultimately infected is A LOT lower than 40%. Even Wuhan, Italy, Spain will end with much, much lower than 40% infected IMO (at least in this first wave).

I suspect when things slow down and we can take inventory the death rate will be above 1% (under the best circumstances), even accounting for all the asymptomatics. It would't surprise me if things ended up was a confirmed positive death rate of 4%, with a real death rate around 2% (accounting for non confirmed); with things getting worse as medical systems get overwhelmed.

This is of course assuming a first world population distribution. The developing world, with a much younger age pyramid, may do considerably better just do to this. The fact most of the developing world is in places that get very hot in summer, and heat does appear to have a small effect on RO, will help too.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Salty_Aus

Quote:

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Originally Posted by splitthis

If 40% of the USA population gets this and 1% die, that is over 1,300,000. Saying 100,000 will die is a pipe dream.

---

As of right now.

818,000 worldwide confirmed cases and 39,784 deaths.
So current death rate is hovering around 5% with 605,000 cases still active and only 173,000 recovered.... death rate can only increase in the short term.

Italy 11% death rate with 3/4's of their cases active.
Spain about 9% death rate with 3/4's still active.

If your hospitals are overwhelmed expect the death rate to mimic Italy and Spain.

1% is extremely optimistic IMO. Depends on how many asymptomatic that have not been recorded.

---

When it’s all said and done and the books are written 1% may turn out to be a very pessimistic number.

The number of people who have Corona is drastically under reported maybe in the hundreds of thousands in the USA alone

Surprised Washington Post hasn't deleted this article yet, which claimed the flu was likely worse than Corona.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/healt...e99_story.html

Interesting facts:

1. Entire school districts in Tenn. and Ohio had to be shut down in January after the flu swept through.
2. 95,000 estimated flu deaths in the US for the 17-18 flu season

Time article about how the flu was so bad in 17-18 that temporary tent hospitals had to be set up:

https://time.com/5107984/hospitals-h...-flu-patients/

Nobody cried and demanded the economy be shut down in 17-18, now this is going to become a yearly thing.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Daly

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Salty_Aus

As of right now.

818,000 worldwide confirmed cases and 39,784 deaths.
So current death rate is hovering around 5% with 605,000 cases still active and only 173,000 recovered.... death rate can only increase in the short term.

Italy 11% death rate with 3/4's of their cases active.
Spain about 9% death rate with 3/4's still active.

If your hospitals are overwhelmed expect the death rate to mimic Italy and Spain.

1% is extremely optimistic IMO. Depends on how many asymptomatic that have not been recorded.

---

When it’s all said and done and the books are written 1% may turn out to be a very pessimistic number.

The number of people who have Corona is drastically under reported maybe in the hundreds of thousands in the USA alone

---

I doubt there is as many underreported cases as we hope there is. The data we have seen so far just doesn't support that hypothesis.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by verminaard

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Daly

When it’s all said and done and the books are written 1% may turn out to be a very pessimistic number.

The number of people who have Corona is drastically under reported maybe in the hundreds of thousands in the USA alone

---

I doubt there is as many underreported cases as we hope there is. The data we have seen so far just doesn't support that hypothesis.

---

To give you an idea. A study out a month ago reported that up to 86% of cases in Wuhan were undetected. And that the majority of COVID 19 spread is from undiagnosed individuals.

Our head health official in our city of speculated that we have about 10k cases based on spread and individuals who were out in the community for weeks before receiving a diagnosis. The official count is 130....

Odds USA has more than 1 million cases 99%

Quote:

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Originally Posted by BetCheckBet

Quote:

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Originally Posted by verminaard

I doubt there is as many underreported cases as we hope there is. The data we have seen so far just doesn't support that hypothesis.

---

To give you an idea. A study out a month ago reported that up to 86% of cases in Wuhan were undetected. And that the majority of COVID 19 spread is from undiagnosed individuals.

Our head health official in our city of speculated that we have about 10k cases based on spread and individuals who were out in the community for weeks before receiving a diagnosis. The official count is 130....

Odds USA has more than 1 million cases 99%

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We probably do have over 1 million cases.

Death rate lags infection by up to 3 weeks. There are currently 3,000 dead. If there wasn't a single infection from this day forward, we would probably have well over 20,000 dead by the end of April.

20,000 dead out of 1 million cases is a 2% death rate.

I hope you are right, but I don't think you (and a lot of experts) are factoring in how much death lags infection into their models that are showing sub 1% death rates.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by verminaard

Quote:

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Originally Posted by BetCheckBet

To give you an idea. A study out a month ago reported that up to 86% of cases in Wuhan were undetected. And that the majority of COVID 19 spread is from undiagnosed individuals.

Our head health official in our city of speculated that we have about 10k cases based on spread and individuals who were out in the community for weeks before receiving a diagnosis. The official count is 130....

Odds USA has more than 1 million cases 99%

---

We probably do have over 1 million cases.

Death rate lags infection by up to 3 weeks. There are currently 3,000 dead. If there wasn't a single infection from this day forward, we would probably have well over 20,000 dead by the end of April.

20,000 dead out of 1 million cases is a 2% death rate.

I hope you are right, but I don't think you (and a lot of experts) are factoring in how much death lags infection into their models that are showing sub 1% death rates.

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Ok, so the experts are not factoring it in. But you are. So that makes you something light years beyond an expert. Got it.