Risk Win
(1) Los Angeles Rams/Tampa Bay Buccaneers o41 ½ (-110)
Header: Los Angeles Rams (1-1) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-1)
Scheduled: 09/25/16 4:05 PM (EST)
Sport: Football - NFL - Game (#479/480)
Risk/Win: $22.00/$20.00
Rotation#: 479/480
Printable View
Risk Win
(1) Los Angeles Rams/Tampa Bay Buccaneers o41 ½ (-110)
Header: Los Angeles Rams (1-1) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-1)
Scheduled: 09/25/16 4:05 PM (EST)
Sport: Football - NFL - Game (#479/480)
Risk/Win: $22.00/$20.00
Rotation#: 479/480
I'll take Cuse +180 on Saturday. Shit they looked better vs Louisville then FSU.
I say again.... What the fuck are the good students of ULL and Tulane doing tonight that we can't put them on ESPN2 tonight?
:whatQuote:
Originally Posted by Daly
Crap, I'm going to lose this one.
Ah... so nice when there's no sweat and your pick just cruises the whole way. Col blows out StL 11-1.
Guaranteed winning day, but will Greinke help me get that elusive 2-0? If this guy can't shut down San Diego, he's really lost it.
Thursday Night FB: Houston Texans -1½ (-105) Bovada
Hit both baseball bets today.
Too bad I put on my skirt and was afraid to pick the third game I wanted, Philly +140. That one easily won.
I've turned it around a bit since my brutal 1-8 slump (worst of the season), going 5-2 since then, including a +130 hit.
I hate to do this, but I will be betting against my beloved Dodgers today. For some reason, the horrendous Brett Anderson (who has been destroyed since attempting to come back from his long injury) is a big favorite today against the Rockies and Tyler Chatwood. Chatwood has a sparkling 1.77 road ERA this year. He's had big problems at home in Denver, but today's game is in Los Angeles.
Will also be betting against another failpitcher today, Ryan Vogelsong, who just keeps getting shellacked in every start. He has allowed 5-6 runs in each of his past 4 starts.
Milwaukee (C. Anderson) -101 vs. Pittsburgh (Vogelsong)
Colorado (Chatwood) +170 at Dodgers (B. Anderson)
So we're betting on one Anderson and against another. Confused yet?
Also, I would wait on firing on Milwaukee, because they have moved from -108 to -101, and it seems they may be a slight dog by the time the game goes off at 5:10pm PDT.
You should line shop on Colorado, as that one is all over the place, ranging from +165 to +180 right now.
gronk expected to play...gonna guess that doesn't matter much because I cant imagine theyre gonna put this game in brissett's hands to win...Quote:
Originally Posted by Reno
I played these tonight
Over Scott 4
Under Scott 66.5
Over Jeune 2
42-12 last week 88-34 YTD CFB props
Anyone who is not strategizing with Daly who I know that wants to make money shoot me a PM
I'm on the Texans -1 -105
Check your bonuses on Bovada through the website. They randomly the past few weeks have gave me free $10 to $25 with 1x rollover on the website you just have to claim it under the bonus section by clicking the button. It's not much but free is free.
http://i65.tinypic.com/dlkf14.jpgQuote:
Originally Posted by BeerAndPoker
Bennett under 3.5
Hopkins under 6.5 -130
Fuller under 4.5 +110
Brissett over 19
Collins over 6.5 -120
Gallman under 110.5
Pats -1
GT +10
Over 106.5 +140Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
Hope I don't get my arm cut off
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C-DeI3ohVbY
Gallman 108
He is capable of going over. I'm betting that GT is able to shorten the game.
Very possible, I had no play on this till the line moved and went to a +$xxxQuote:
Originally Posted by Daly
Took Boston ML and the Under 8 1/2 runs today against my Baltimore Orioles.. Yes I love my Os but I'm also practical and the sweep is all but certain and this series they haven't gone over 8 runs yet combined.. Got just over 2-1 for the parlay.. We shall see
Besides Baltimore will be looking to get healthy and sweep the listless AZ Diamondbacks coming into BMore starting tomorrow
Cut it close.... 5-3 barely got the Under at 8 runs total
Col currently at +200. Don't understand it. Anderson pitched well in his one AAA rehab start, but so what? He pitched fairly well last time in this spot about a month ago, and then just got crushed in every start at MLB.
Chatwood has been excellent on the road all year. How is this game so much in the Dodgers' favor, and why does everyone love the Dodgers so much here?
Also, with a 6 game lead, honestly the Dodgers aren't feeling much urgency to win at this point. They have an outside shot at catching Washington for a better record, but probably not.
Public also liked Pitt, but not as steeply as Dodgers. Game moved to Mil +100 by the time it went off, which is what I bet. Why they have any faith in Vogelsong versus a fairly consistent Chase Anderson is beyond me.
We will see tonight if I turn out to be correct, or if the public does. So far I've already got a 2-0 lead in the Mil game. Dodgers start in 2 hours or so.
http://youtu.be/igx0nazlpfEQuote:
Originally Posted by chinamaniacOver 106.5 +140Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
Hope I don't get my arm cut off
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C-DeI3ohVbY
First time I bet against the Pats in several years and probably the last. This team is superbowl bound if they play defense like they did tonight. Bet against the GOD of coaching and I deserve to lose. I'm also cursed on picks I post as of late since I took Clemson a couple nights ago and they covered.
Sorry for the Brissett loss guys. I'll do better.Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
Looks like we have company aboard.... All the way down to +3/+125 nowQuote:
Originally Posted by Daly
I just got down in La Tech at +170/175. I mean I do make MTSU the favorite here but at 1.7-1 I think it's a decent bet. 3-4-5 points ain't going to mean shit in this game. It's going to be high scoring.
Might get a good line to bet against them next week.Quote:
Originally Posted by BeerAndPoker
What a heartbreaker.
I bet triple units (something I rarely do) on Colorado because I loved the value so much. Bet 1.4 units on Milwaukee +100, too.
Milwaukee won first, so I was happy for the moment.
Then Rockies break out 3-0 in the 2nd. Even happier.
Then Rockies are up 4-1 after 5, and I'm still happy.
Two horribly played balls make it 4-2 in the 6th, and then came the assfucking in the 7th. Walt Weiss left Boone Logan in to pitch when he couldn't throw strikes. Gave up a single and walked 3 straight batters. STILL left him in to face Yasmani Grandal, and.... BAM... grand slam. 7-4 Dodgers. Ended up the final.
So frustrating. My 3 bets averaged out to almost +190, it would have been like winning 6 -110 games in a row, had this held.
Fucking joke to lose this way. Why leave a pitcher in like that to flail when he can't throw strikes? Guess the Rockies just don't give a shit.
I think I saw that game closed at like +230 too , What was up with all the line movement there?Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
No idea... and sadly I was pretty much right with my bet, and horrible managing fucked me.Quote:
Originally Posted by chinamaniacI think I saw that game closed at like +230 too , What was up with all the line movement there?Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
:solidgoldQuote:
Originally Posted by DalySorry for the Brissett loss guys. I'll do better.Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
never noticed this before, nate silver runs quant on sports: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...ex_cid=rrpromo
Teaser: Utah +3½ / U51½
Taking one more shot against the Dodgers today, despite how they broke my heart yesterday. This is only because Scott Kazmir, coming back from injury, has not had any minor league rehab starts, and admits he had discomfort during a 35-pitch bullpen session 3 days ago! This start has FAIL written all over it. Jon Gray looked excellent last time out.
Also going back to my bread-and-butter and taking the Phillies, who have a +133 line behind Hellickson, who has been very dominant over his last 2 starts. He faces Gabriel Ynoa, a rookie reliever who has never gone more than 4.3 innings this season.
Philies (Hellickson) +133 at NY Mets (Ynoa)
Colorado (Gray) +155 at Dodgers (Kazmir)
Warning: Both Hellickson and Gray threw CG shutouts last time out, which may affect their stamina.
You just broke more rules of teasing in one play then should ever be allowed.Quote:
Originally Posted by Reno
Never cross zero.
Never tease a total
Absolutely positively never tease a total over 55
:thisQuote:
Originally Posted by DalyYou just broke more rules of teasing in one play then should ever be allowed.Quote:
Originally Posted by Reno
Never cross zero.
Never tease a total
Absolutely positively never tease a total over 55
I used to bet teasers a lot back when they were viable +EV bets in NFL. I miss those days.
Teasers are actually very -EV in most cases, but there is an opportunity in football (especially NFL) to take advantage of them if odds are good enough.
The basic premise is that you want to cross the "3" and the "7" with a 6-point teaser. So you would tease from -7.5 to -1.5, or +2 to +8. If your teaser bet is not "crossing" both 3 and 7, don't make it.
Of course, the reason for this is the common scores in football games often being separated by 3 or 7 points (since those are the amounts a team gets for a field goal and touchdown).
You don't tease totals because they cannot take advantage of this 3/7 factor.
You are also preferably looking for low total games when teasing the sides. This is because you want the extra 6 points you get to be more meaningful, which it is more likely to be in a low scoring contest.
Furthermore, you should avoid teasing teams which have a tendency to get blown out, as the 6 points will be meaningless in those situations. Ideally, you will tease a team which frequently finishes close to the spread.
You should also stick to NFL for teasing, rather than college.
However, even if you do all of the above, teasers are still -EV unless you get a proper line for them. You want +300 for a 4-teamer, +180 for a 3-team teaser and +100 for a 2-teamer. You won't find these lines on any reputable books anymore.
And never tease college football!!Quote:
Originally Posted by DalyYou just broke more rules of teasing in one play then should ever be allowed.Quote:
Originally Posted by Reno
Never cross zero.
Never tease a total
Absolutely positively never tease a total over 55
2-1 Phillies early.
To be honest, neither pitcher looks good so far. Both teams have blown scoring chances already.
Ugh.
Just like yesterday.
Phillies up 3-1, pitcher stops throwing strikes, no one takes him out, 6 runs score.
Well, they took him out after 3 runs scored, then the reliever gave up a 3-run HR.
If Rockies can win, I still can win today.
I've had so many leads blown in past 2 weeks.
Ole miss -7 is a steal, book it while it's still at -7
Iowa/Rutgers U56
GL
Purdue -5.5
Oconnor u18.5
Oconnor under 243.5
Mckenzie under 107.5 -125
Engrahm under 120.5
Francois under 25.5
Francois under 305.5
Flowers under 264.5