* OFFICIAL 2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination Race Thread *

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03-01-2020, 02:39 PM
TheXFactor

Quote:

Originally Posted by SPIT this

Quote:

Originally Posted by duped_samaritan

If Bernie has a significant lead, I'm not so sure. They definitely have to factor in all the 'corrupt DNC rigged it' sentiment. 'I told you so! Biden is only in this race because the DNC cheated!' would probably be an effective attack during the General.

Right now Biden is leading in the popular vote, and Sanders is leading in the delegate count. Sanders is benefiting from an electoral college like system. What ever happened to respecting the will of the voters?

In what? A national poll of 50 crack addicts in South Carolina?

Are you fucking nuts?

The only other state besides South Carolina that Biden is winning is North Carolina. Every other state Biden is losing.

https://image.cnbcfm.com/api/v1/imag...69&w=678&h=381
03-01-2020, 02:46 PM
SPIT this

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheXFactor

Quote:

Originally Posted by SPIT this

Right now Biden is leading in the popular vote, and Sanders is leading in the delegate count. Sanders is benefiting from an electoral college like system. What ever happened to respecting the will of the voters?

In what? A national poll of 50 crack addicts in South Carolina?

Are you fucking nuts?

The only other state besides South Carolina that Biden is winning is North Carolina. Every other state Biden is losing.

Uhh... in the actual vote totals of people who have voted so far. Look it up yourself. It's not an opinion, it's a factual statement you can see.
03-01-2020, 02:47 PM
SPIT this

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheXFactor

The only other state besides South Carolina that Biden is winning is North Carolina. Every other state Biden is losing.

Bet. I'll give you 10 to 1.
03-01-2020, 02:53 PM
SPIT this

States where Biden is likely to win:
Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Florida, Louisiana, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Tennesse, North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware.

I'll take even odds for Biden winning any one of these states. Pick your favorite state where Biden's a lock to lose. I'll take Biden and you can have the field. Druff will escrow.
03-01-2020, 02:58 PM
TheXFactor

These are the only vote totals that mean anything.

Bernie Sanders...58 delegates

Joe Biden...50 delegates

Pete Buttigieg...26 delegates

Elizabeth Warren...8 delegates

Amy Klobuchar...7 delegates

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EQ6nKt-XYAEtfWI.jpg
03-01-2020, 03:07 PM
SPIT this

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheXFactor

These are the only vote totals that mean anything.

Bernie Sanders...58 delegates

Joe Biden...50 delegates

Pete Buttigieg...26 delegates

Elizabeth Warren...8 delegates

Amy Klobuchar...7 delegates

Ahh... so you are in favor of DNC rigging instead of letting voters decide. Just checking.

EITHER we should abide by the popular vote, OR we should abide by the DNC rules. You can't abide by DNC rules when it suits you and abide by popular vote when it doesn't. That's trying to have your cake and eat it too.
03-01-2020, 03:09 PM
sonatine

honestly

the margin of improvement that literally any one of these candidates would present over the status quo, is so overwhelming, that i genuinely dont care which of them gets nominated.
03-01-2020, 03:36 PM
BCR

Quote:

Originally Posted by SPIT this

States where Biden is likely to win:
Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Florida, Louisiana, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Tennesse, North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware.

I'll take even odds for Biden winning any one of these states. Pick your favorite state where Biden's a lock to lose. I'll take Biden and you can have the field. Druff will escrow.

I would have to do the math, but my guess is the amount Biden beats Bernie by in all those states combined doesn’t equal what Bernie will beat Joe by in California alone. The biggest would be Florida where 1.5 million voted last time. California had over 5 million when it was way later after it was already decided. I would guess they’ll be at 7 million this time around. Then he’s going to crush him in Colorado and beat him soundly in Texas also. Neither the delegates nor the popular vote will be close after Tuesday. Bernie will have a sizeable lead in both.
03-01-2020, 03:42 PM
SPIT this

Quote:

Originally Posted by BCR

Quote:

Originally Posted by SPIT this

States where Biden is likely to win:
Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Florida, Louisiana, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Tennesse, North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware.

I'll take even odds for Biden winning any one of these states. Pick your favorite state where Biden's a lock to lose. I'll take Biden and you can have the field. Druff will escrow.

I would have to do the math, but my guess is the amount Biden beats Bernie by in all those states combined doesn’t equal what Bernie will beat Joe by in California alone. The biggest would be Florida where 1.5 million voted last time. California had over 5 million when it was way later after it was already decided. I would guess they’ll be at 7 million this time around. Then he’s going to crush him in Colorado and beat him soundly in Texas also. Neither the delegates nor the popular vote will be close after Tuesday. Bernie will have a sizeable lead in both.

Texas might be closer than you think. But I agree with you, and it's why Bernie is still the favorite. But, things could definitely turn around. March 17th will be a big primary day when Florida, Illinois, Ohio, and Arizona vote. All big delegate states. Biden will be a big favorite in Florida. Then in the other 3 states, Sanders is a favorite right now, but these are all states where Biden /could/ win. Arizon would be the hardest, but if Biden pulls an upset and wins Florida, Ohio, and Illinois, this race becomes a toss-up. There's also the final debate on March 15th, which could shake things up. Some other possible events that would really shake the race up:
- Bloomberg drops out right after Super Tuesday and throws his resources behind Biden (pretty good likelihood)
- Obama endorses Biden, or trashes Bernie without explicitly endorsing Biden (unlikely, but possible)
- Bernie has another heart-attack (unlikely, but Pence is praying for it)
03-01-2020, 04:04 PM
TheXFactor

Bloomberg, Warren, Bernie and Biden will stay in until the Democratic convention.

Trump prefers to go up against Sanders and he is urging his supporters to help make Bernie the democratic nominee.

Be careful what you wish for.

https://www.snopes.com/tachyon/2020/...rg_sanders.jpg
03-01-2020, 04:10 PM
SPIT this

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheXFactor

Bloomberg, Warren, Bernie and Biden will stay in until the Democratic convention.

You make a lot of very dumb statements, but never back it up with your wallet. Which makes me think you don't actually believe the things you're saying, or you're totally broke. Either way, waste of time.
03-01-2020, 04:13 PM
MrTickle

Pete dropping out! bye felicia
03-01-2020, 04:21 PM
SPIT this

Quote:

Originally Posted by MrTickle

Pete dropping out! bye felicia

Biden endorsement pending
03-01-2020, 04:22 PM
Dan Druff

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheXFactor

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5P4ubDTpjhI

This is true, everyone would have to pay more in taxes in order to implement Bernie Sanders socialist programs.

Yes, a lot of wealthy people pay a great deal in taxes, however a lot of them know how to cheat the system and transfer money to overseas tax shelters. The system of taxing businesses is not fair. Why does Home Depot pay 36% in taxes and Amazon 0%?

LOL at how obvious it's become that CNN is the DNC's puppet.

I mean, he's not wrong in the video, but 100% this was produced because they are trying to bash Bernie on behalf of their DNC buddies who hate him.

I love how the Bernie Bros are finally waking up and saying, "Oh wow, Trump actually had a point about the biased media!"
03-01-2020, 04:22 PM
BCR

Quote:

Originally Posted by MrTickle

Pete dropping out! bye felicia

This helps Joe big time to be viable in California. Joe still gets killed, but certainly viable. Helps him elsewhere also. I heard he was wavering last night. Makes sense he’d be the easiest to push out. He has a future to worry about. The rest are ancient.
03-01-2020, 04:30 PM
Dan Druff

I was just talking with Master Scalir about the primary last night, and he asked what I thought about Pete.

I told him that Pete has 40 years remaining to try to become President, so he has no urgency here. I also stated that I don't think Pete wants to hitch has wagon as VP to a fail candidate, which is pretty much what he'd be doing regardless of who the Democratic nominee ends up being.

Pete probably feels that he accomplished all he could, and that given a lack of realistic path to victory in any of the remaining states, he might as well drop out and use this as a building block for next time. He won Iowa and finished a very close 2nd in NH. As a 38-year-old former mayor, that's enough for the moment. Rather than get embarrassed throughout the remainder of the election, he dropped out and can hit the continue button in 2024 and beyond.

Pete is probably hoping that two things can change by the time he runs again. First, perhaps he will develop a better strategy to reach out to minorities and get their essential support, which for him was nonexistent. Second, he is probably hoping that as years pass, black people start to warm up to gays as the rest of the country has, and will be more willing to vote for him.

Believe it or not, Pete could also reinvent himself as a Republican, and then he won't need the black vote to win. He would still have to win over the Christian conservative vote, which might be tough, but he might be able to squeak by without a large portion of them.

He's such an insincere phony that I think he'd make any transformation possible in order to further his political career.
03-01-2020, 04:33 PM
Dan Druff

I do think that Pete might back Biden, possibly just to give a middle finger to Bernie, whom he clearly doesn't like.
03-01-2020, 04:33 PM
SPIT this

Quote:

Originally Posted by BCR

Quote:

Originally Posted by MrTickle

Pete dropping out! bye felicia

This helps Joe big time to be viable in California. Joe still gets killed, but certainly viable. Helps him elsewhere also. I heard he was wavering last night. Makes sense he’d be the easiest to push out. He has a future to worry about. The rest are ancient.

As usual your analysis is spot on. In states where Warren, Biden, Bloomberg, and Buttigieg were competitive, it'd be hard for all of them to get to 15%. Now it's a lot easier. Also helpful to Warren in MA and Klob in MN.
03-01-2020, 04:35 PM
sonatine

i have to assume a lot of the candidates are just hanging on long enough to gain name recognition for 2024 but not long enough for it to be awkward.
03-01-2020, 04:41 PM
TheXFactor

The reason Bloomberg and Warren are staying in the race is that they are hoping for a contested convention and that somehow the DNC superdelegates will make them President.

Why Elizabeth Warren thinks she can still win the nomination

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/0...ination-118319

https://www.bostonherald.com/wp-cont...9234.jpg?w=525

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*** OFFICIAL 2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination Race Thread ***

* OFFICIAL 2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination Race Thread *