The most hated player by the Dodgers is returning back to where all the controversy began.
Carlos Correa is coming back to the Astros.
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The most hated player by the Dodgers is returning back to where all the controversy began.
Carlos Correa is coming back to the Astros.
Friars have to be thinking of stretching Miller back out next year for the rotation, otherwise wouldn't have given up De Vries.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Twins fans bitching about Duran trade, but I dont mind it. Bullpen studs always overrated. Abel has everything but command. Not ideal, but plenty of guys who took awhile to harness their stuff. Good catcher prospects are hard to come by also, kid might be something.
Lol and live, Correa back to Astros. Can't wait to see the details there....$$$$ covered by Twins vs prospect return
On Weds Padres had the number one bullpen ranking last 30 days. Trade didn’t hurt none.
Morally obliged to sprinkle +850 on Padres winning NL West.
I thought trading Rushman would be a monster move. He’s a waste playing behind one of the top 2 catchers in the game - who also got signed to a long term deal. Woulda yielded a haul.
Maybe Rushman gets converted to SS.
Oh boy, Twins really cleared house. High debt ratio + team for sale. Lol MLB.
they paid Correa 33m to go away in return for a 26 year old in A ball
Padres shipped away tons of its prospects.Quote:
Originally Posted by gut
They're going all in to finally get that ring this year, and they still probably won't win the division.
They got Ramon Laureano and Ryan O'Hearn, the latter being a prized target by many teams.
This should be an interesting stretch run for the Dodgers, who basically said fuck it, we're riding with what we have. Dodgers and Brewers were criticized by some for not doing enough given their obvious contender statuses.
Remaining strength of schedule. Dodgers continue to fumble the bag?Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
In a continued summer tradition Red Sawks collect some Dodgers garbage.
Dustin May to Boston
Slot him behind Buehler
Red Sox derate velocity as a corporate philosophy. Superior coaching might save Gingergaard. Doubt it
Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarRemaining strength of schedule. Dodgers continue to fumble the bag?Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Yeah the Dodgers' easy schedule at the end is negated by the Padres having the same. It's a 2-team race now that the Giants fell out of contention, and the Dbacks fell even further out. At one point it looked like the NL West might have 4 strong teams.
Interesting that the Reds were buyers. They're going to have to pass either the Padres, Cubs, or Phillies, and all of this is a tough order. They're 3 behind the final wildcard spot held by the Padres right now. AL wildcard race is far more interesting, with a ton of teams within striking distance of 57 wins, which is currently the mark held by the Mariners and Rangers for the last spot.
i've been continuously betting the mets, phillies and dodgers to win the ws since opening day in an exact result with many AL teams other than the nyy because the odds were lower with them. those are the only 3 teams i like to take it all.
before the season started this dodger team was suppose win 110 games and the odds were much lower the mets/phillies. i do have la/tor at 100-1 and mets/phils at around 150/200-1 and have bet it down more as it's gotten lower. with the jay's surge, i stopped the last few weeks because the market corrected itself.
with around 60 games left there's plenty of things that could happen in the AL
i still think the AL is open for any team that happens to make the postseason. i'm still married to those 3 NL teams winning it. not really worried about an AL team winning the ws or the cubs. one team i don't have a figure on or any action is the brewers who have been hot for over a month now.
the mets did an outstanding job at the trade deadline.
as for which team will win the AL? like i said i don't see any clear favorite. texas weathered the storm and is playing better, sea finally got a couple bats and hopefully they will score more. the sox seem like a playoff team right now as well.
det/houston have been low for some time now. i don't know how houston continues to win.
all my exact result bets are over 30-1.. the 30-1 are LA mostly.
I read your post 3x and found zero mention of the Brewers. They can manufacture runs and possess superior pitching and defence. Those are playoff credentials. Druff can verify.Quote:
Originally Posted by mulva
You’ve put together a legendary career with long shots and no doubt must have your reasons.
The Brewers have Freddy Peralta (good), Jose Quintana (mediocre), Brandon Woodruff (good, but health in question), Jacob Misiorowski (excellent, but maybe not experienced enough for postseason), and Quinn Priester (mediocre).
If Woodruff stays healthy and Misiorowski doesn't wilt under the playoff lights, this will be a tough team to beat, even if the offense scuffles.
If Woodruff gets hurt again (or shows cracks due to his previous injury), and Misiorowski is either fatigued or has a hard time with the postseason pressure, this could be another disasterous playoff jaunt for the Brew Crew.
Their fans are irritated that they didn't do anything to improve their offense. They can manufacture runs, as Sanlmar stated, but they also lack much punch. They're 23rd in MLB in home runs, and lag FAR beyond powerful offenses like the Dodgers, Yankees, and Cubs.
I understand pitching tends to win championships, but when you've got Andrew Vaughn manning your 5-spot, you know your team has room for offensive improvement.
I'm actually surprised the Dodgers have struggled so much against them this year, because usually they dominate teams with good pitching and low-power offense. It's teams like the Cubs which worry me more, but the Dodgers have been given fits by the Brewers.
High powered offense?
MILW is #1 Team Ranking Net Expected Runs per Plate Appearance last 30 days. Dodgers are 21st.
MILW is #3 Rotation Rankings Net Expected Runs per Plate Appearance last 30 days. Dodgers are 11th
MILW #4 Bullpen Rankings Expected yada yada. Dodgers 16th
Other than Dodgers I’m watching Brewers most often. They make me feel good about baseball when I do. They are unique like that. All $94m of them.
With Mulva I’m talking value in long shots and with MILW you have that in spades
You know the Dodgers have been shit for the past month, but overall there's no question the Dodgers offense has a lot of power, and the Brewers do not.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Their own fans are angry at the front office for not correcting this.
We will see if it ends up mattering. The Brewers don't exactly have a history of postseason success.
Dodgers have been bad.
I don’t bet the team that took the field in April. I bet what I see. Teams adjust. Cat and mouse.
I have a preference for teams with defense and can manufacture runs in the playoffs. It’s too late to get into the whole discussion about why playoffs are a different game once again.
It’s 6 moneyline favorites vs trade deadline sellers tomorrow. The only way I don’t end up in debtors prison is that I think I’ll have CLV up the ass. Each game has a powerful lineup argument.
We both know that it’s wrong but it’s much too strong to let it go now
Cubs
Phila
Brewers
Mets
Guards undisputed favorite bet of the day
Padres
Dodgers are hoping Alex Call will be the 2025 Tommy Edman. I don't see it, but that's what they're hoping.
Last year the Dodgers straight up robbed the Cards and White Sox by getting Edman and Michael Kopech for Miguel Vargas and two trash minor leaguers. Edman and Kopech both made a difference in their eventual World Series win, especially Edman.
On deadline day, the Braves and Reds both scored 8 runs in the 8th against each other.
Braves were up 11-3 after the top of the 8th, only to have it tied by the bottom half.
They still won in extras.
I don't think I can name even half the guys who will be in uniform for the Twins today.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
You mean Rushing. Unless "Rushman" is a joke I don't understand, but I would think that "Rushmore" (a reference to an obscure 2000 movie) would be more clever.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
You're right that Rushing is blocked long term by Smith. This is especially true since Smith has kicked his offense up another notch, and is on a (relatively cheap) long-term contract. I believe he is being trained to play OF, so the Dodgers can get his bat in the lineup eventually. Otherwise, he's permanently blocked by a top catcher and top DH, so he has no path.
I don't think the Dodgers want to trade him because they truly see a path to make him an outfielder.
+850 on the Padres is a great bet. Dodgers have been wildly inconsistent, and Padres piled on a lot of talent at the deadline.
If you have access to a ROY bet, take a look at Cade Horton.
Odds should be fairly long, as everyone is focusing upon Misiorowski and Baldwin, but Horton is the sneaky choice.
After struggling in the minors in 2024, Horton ate up the hitters there in 2025, and was promoted. He was then uneven for awhile, but now is really coming into his own. With 5 more shutout innings today, he has now strung together 3 consecutive shutout appearances, and brought his ERA down to 3.42. If he continues dealing in August and September, he could be the surprise winner, especially if Baldwin and Misiorowski don't finish strong.
Horton was a high-ranking prospect, so this isn't just a case of a fish on a heater. I'm not saying he's anywhere near a favorite, but a longshot bet has value right now, as nobody is paying attention to him. He's not flashy like Misiorowski.
Rushing has more value as a catcher with good bat. As an outfielder he would be a dime a dozen. He could have solved a few problems for the Dodgers as a trade pieceQuote:
Originally Posted by Dan DruffYou mean Rushing. Unless "Rushman" is a joke I don't understand, but I would think that "Rushmore" (a reference to an obscure 2000 movie) would be more clever.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
You're right that Rushing is blocked long term by Smith. This is especially true since Smith has kicked his offense up another notch, and is on a (relatively cheap) long-term contract. I believe he is being trained to play OF, so the Dodgers can get his bat in the lineup eventually. Otherwise, he's permanently blocked by a top catcher and top DH, so he has no path.
I don't think the Dodgers want to trade him because they truly see a path to make him an outfielder.
+850 on the Padres is a great bet. Dodgers have been wildly inconsistent, and Padres piled on a lot of talent at the deadline.
Similarly, Will Smith is an infinitely more valuable player behind the dish than he would be in left field.
It’s math. Just makes no sense at all. Fraudman genius yo
Not sure who needs more whips from the reeds, San or Druff.Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarRushing has more value as a catcher with good bat. As an outfielder he would be a dime a dozen. He could have solved a few problems for the Dodgers as a trade pieceQuote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Similarly, Will Smith is an infinitely more valuable player behind the dish than he would be in left field.
It’s math. Just makes no sense at all. Fraudman genius yo
San (IMO) was confusing Orioles Rutschman with Rushing.
Druff not figuring that out led to this post.
Rushing sitting in the dugout eating sunflower seeds night after night is barely worth remembering at all.Quote:
Originally Posted by gutNot sure who needs more whips from the reeds, San or Druff.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
San (IMO) was confusing Orioles Rutschman with Rushing.
Druff not figuring that out led to this post.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
https://x.com/TalkinYanks/status/1951480118833988035
Additionally, Pittsburgh lost 17-16 in Colorado, thanks to 5 runs allowed by newly anointed closer Dennis Santana.
13-12? 17-16?
Looks like football season is really here.
A couple nights ago I went to bed when the Braves were up 8 runs on the 8th inning, yes 8 runs in the 8th inning. I had the Braves it was basically even mid game spread which I bet before the run up. They (Reds) scored 8 run scored 8 in the bottom of the inning. Braves won 12-11, and it was a push. I am done until football season. What I have found is how important a guy like Mariano Rivera was. Teams simply have no bullpens any longer fucking scabs, no closers exist. I can't tell you how much money I have lost in the 8th or 9th inning. Just done.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Dodgers 26 strikeouts last 2 games against vaunted RaysQuote:
Originally Posted by Dan DruffYou know the Dodgers have been shit for the past month.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Catchers can wear down fast. Will Smith is 30. Dodgers signed Smith for 10 years because it was $14m/year and they foresaw that he'd likely be asking for (and getting) over $100m for a shorter time period, so they figured they might as well save a bit in advance, and get him longer. That was actually a smart move, as weird as it looked in March 2024.Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarRushing has more value as a catcher with good bat. As an outfielder he would be a dime a dozen. He could have solved a few problems for the Dodgers as a trade pieceQuote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Similarly, Will Smith is an infinitely more valuable player behind the dish than he would be in left field.
It’s math. Just makes no sense at all. Fraudman genius yo
They're under no delusion that he will be valuable to them in 2033.
Rushing is 24. They can put him in OF until Smith is ready to become a bench player. Not ideal, but they don't want to send him away and see him become a superstar. They were aware of Rushing when they signed Smith to that deal.
Their recent catcher history is funny. Dodgers were bouncing from mediocre hitting catcher to mediocre hitting catcher since trading Piazza, but were waiting for the ascension of Keibert Ruiz, who was drafted in 2014 as a 17-year-old, and then seemed to be a far better hitter than the expected. They drafted Will Smith in the first round at overall pick #32 in 2016. They were semi-high on him, but he was not expected to be a long term solution at catcher -- more of a stopgap they could use until Ruiz was ready. He only hit .243 in his minors career. But being 3 years older, he beat Ruiz to give it a shot, immediately started hitting, and Ruiz became expendable.
They correctly saw Ruiz at that point as a guy whose bat was never going to be elite, so he was expendable. So was Hunter Feduccia, who was just sent out. Rushing they still believe can be valuable from his bat alone, so they're willing to wait.
The better question is why they didn't trade Alex Freeland, who was believed to be trade bait, but ultimately didn't move. Looks like they're going to sink or swim with what they already have this year.
There are no closers anymore, or you could alternatively say everyone is a closer.Quote:
Originally Posted by tgullA couple nights ago I went to bed when the Braves were up 8 runs on the 8th inning, yes 8 runs in the 8th inning. I had the Braves it was basically even mid game spread which I bet before the run up. They (Reds) scored 8 run scored 8 in the bottom of the inning. Braves won 12-11, and it was a push. I am done until football season. What I have found is how important a guy like Mariano Rivera was. Teams simply have no bullpens any longer fucking scabs, no closers exist. I can't tell you how much money I have lost in the 8th or 9th inning. Just done.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
30 years ago you'd spend 8 innings hitting vs some junk throwing starter/middle relievers throwing 87-90mph fastballs. Then when a Billy Wagner of Trevor Hoffman came in the 9th firing 98mph heat it meant something. Threw hitters off.
90% of pitchers today are throwing like a Wagner or Hoffman every pitch, every inning.
What? You are icing The Miz and stashing him on IL hours before my MILW bet?
No problem for the best team in baseball
14-1 or some such foolishness
I set fire to fiat on my Ghost Ohtani HR bet today. Still a ghost. “Due Factor” astrology nonsense
Here's a weird stat I bet you didn't know:
Justin Turner has been in MLB for 17 seasons, and a starter for most of them. He's now 40 years old.
He had some huge moments with the Dodgers, and was one of the league's better hitters in the mid-2010s.
How many regular season walkoff HR do you think he had?
Zero... point... zero.
I'm shocked by this. Turner hit a walkoff HR today, and it was the first of his career in the regular season. He's done it in the postseason before.
One of the biggest wastes of money is signing a reliever to a long term contract for a lot of money. Almost always ends in disaster. Look at how much the Dodgers wasted on Kirby Yates and Tanner Scott this year.Quote:
Originally Posted by gut
The smart play is to pile up a lot of cheap relievers and go with the hot hand. Many relievers are excellent for a year or two, then fall apart. I'm not just talking about closers. This is also true for setup men and middle relievers. Look how great the Dodgers bullpen was last year, yet it was comprised of a bunch of cheapo no-namers.
Every once in awhile you'll get a Trevor Hoffman or Mariano Rivera, and those super elite guys are worth the money and the long contracts. But for the vast majority of "closers", you are wasting your money if you sign them to a long term deal.
Dodgers holding a bobble head night for their AAA pitcher. Very inclusive
You have to give Yamamoto credit so far. He was not only valuable during their 2024 World Series run, but he's also gone the entire 2025 season so far without injury, and has pitched very well.
The foursome of Sasaki/Glasnow/Snell/Ohtani has contributed virtually nothing pitching-wise this year.
Dodgers being in first place is pretty amazing considering that it's been Yamamoto and a gaggle of failpitchers thus far. They're in a virtual tie for 4th most runs allowed in the NL. To be fair, some of that is due to a few extreme blowout games where position players pitched.
This is how difficult it is to determine ROY odds.
Pre-season odds:
AL
Jasson Dominguez +300
Jackson Jobe +550
Roman Anthony +700
Kristian Campbell +700
Jacob Wilson +1000
Will Wagner +1200
Coby Mayo +1200
Kumar Rocker +1200
Christian Moore +1400
NL
Roki Sasaki +185
Dylan Crews +350
Matt Shaw +425
Quinn Mathews +900
Bubba Chandler +1000
Jordan Lawlar +1100
Today the runaway candidate for the AL is Nick Kurtz, followed by Roman Anthony and Cam Smith. In the NL, Drake Baldwin leads, Isaac Collins and Agustin Ramirez are virtually tied for second, injured Jacob Misiorwoski in fourth, with Cade Horton and Matt Shaw the other two candidates.
In short, none of the expected NL candidates even show up (except maybe Matt Shaw, a very distant 5th), and only Roman Anthony shows up in the AL version, with Kurtz not even originally listed.
Horton is +3500 on Bovada. You can probably find better elsewhere.
Even +3500 is great value. Nobody is running away with it in the NL. Baldwin is losing playing time due to the crowded C/DH situation in Atlanta, and he has no HR in weeks. Misiorowski is injured and may not pitch much more in 2025. Isaac Collins is nothing special. Agustin Ramirez is very streaky and also has an OBP under .300. Matt Shaw was bad in the first half and he will lose playing time thanks to the Cubs acquiring Willi Castro.
If Horton continues on his hot streak, he could easily be the favorite, unless Baldwin goes on another hot run, or Ramirez crushes it again.
The following could equally have been posted in the wagering thread but the line between profit and editorial is murky when it comes to my Dodger action. I prefer this be considered informative and that you grow from my wisdom.
Sonny Gray over 5.5 strikeouts thrown -105
Doyers 3rd highest K% vs RHP last 3 weeks (Druff’s “Dodgers have been shit last month” principle)
Gray got hit around recently but he still got his K’s. Gray is better on the road K% 27.5%. Higher K% vs Lefties and Ohtani should contribute 3 alone.
I do this for you. Show some gratitude
Dodgers prolly move Mookie to the cleanup position in the lineup.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Description
Risk To Win
Sonny Gray/StrikeoutsO 5½ -120
GL2US
You’re not at Circa or SouthPoint are you. Juice matters.Quote:
Originally Posted by TellafriendQuote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Description
Risk To Win
Sonny Gray/StrikeoutsO 5½ -120
GL2US
Please post picture from Circa sportsbook. Consider it a religious pilgrimage
Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarYou’re not at Circa or SouthPoint are you. Juice mattersQuote:
Originally Posted by Tellafriend
online. my site is tough.
and you know where i am staying.