🇺🇲 FINAL NATIONAL POLL: NYT/Siena 2-WAY 🟥 Trump: 48% 🟦 Harris: 48% Last poll (9/26-10/6) - 🔵 Harris+3 —— FULL FIELD 🟥 Trump: 47% 🟦 Harris: 46% 🟩 Stein: 2% 🟪 Other: 2%
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🇺🇲 FINAL NATIONAL POLL: NYT/Siena 2-WAY 🟥 Trump: 48% 🟦 Harris: 48% Last poll (9/26-10/6) - 🔵 Harris+3 —— FULL FIELD 🟥 Trump: 47% 🟦 Harris: 46% 🟩 Stein: 2% 🟪 Other: 2%
NYTIMES 2020 poll: Biden+10
NYTIMES 2024 poll: Tie
Poll Salad but you get the point.
RCP Average 2024 2020 2016
National Harris +0.1 Biden +8.0 Clinton +5.1
Wisconsin Trump +0.2 Biden +5.5 Clinton +6.0
Pennsylvania Trump +0.6 Biden +4.8 Clinton +5.2
Ohio Trump +7.0 Trump +0.6 Trump +1.0
Michigan Trump +0.2 Biden +9.0 Clinton +10.0
Arizona Trump +1.5 Biden +2.2 Clinton +1.5
Nevada Trump +0.7 Biden +5.2 Clinton +3.9
North Carolina Trump +0.8 Biden +1.2 Clinton +2.2
Georgia Trump +2.2 Biden +0.7 Trump +3.3
Florida Trump +8.4 Biden +1.8 Clinton +2.4
I've kicked limitles from the thread for spamming.
It's looking pretty bad for Kamala. I have optimism that Trump wins this one. I thought he would lose both 2016 and 2020.
When Virginia is in play, you know something is up. It's like 20 pages ago in this thread, but when I said when you see candidates or their surrogates going to places they should not be, well Biden just went to New Hampshire. I believe the election is breaking hard for Trump.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Why is Kamala in Texas, I know Houston is blue but she has no shot
I believe its a reaction that Trump sold out MSG this weekend and trying to react. The reality is Trump grew up in Jamaica NY and has ties there. So I get it. I doubt Kamala has ever been to Houston. Both states are never going to swing, but one is reacting to the other, and well..Quote:
Originally Posted by Texter
How will betting sites react if Jamie Raskin's plan of DQing Trump and denying his inauguration on Jan 6th is implemented?
https://x.com/TheEXECUTlONER_/status...38849217712482
🔴 Trump: 49% | 🔵 Harris: 49% | 🟡 Independents: Trump+3 | Last poll: Harris+1 | Emerson | 10/23-24 | N=1,000LV
This fucking guy had his son commit suicide at the age of 25. You would think he would show humility, and just exit the public spotlight. Maybe focus on what you could have done differently as a parent, self reflection, what were the warning signs? No not him, his TDS is so severe you get these absurd quotes.Quote:
Originally Posted by Deal
Just as I predicted, when you see candidates going to "other states" it is about as predictive as it gets.
Early Voting results and this poll mean that VA may be a shocker. That's why Trump has a rally there with Youngkin: #NEW VIRGINIA poll 🔵 Harris: 49% (+6) 🔴 Trump: 43% Washington Post | 10/19-23 | N=1,004LV
Not sure what you talking about here. If she is up 6 points this late he should pull out.Quote:
Originally Posted by tgull
Trump should live in PA, Mi and Wi for the next 2 weeks. Should never leave the rust belt.
You missed my point. In 2016 Trump began 10 days out basically living in MI. Everyone was like what are you doing? The MSM had him 8-10 points down in MI. He won the state, based on internal polling. Internal polling is unskewed with a much larger sample size. He is there in VA for a reason. The same reason Biden was just in New Hampshire. Just like James Carville said a week ago, this election is not going to be close. Going to take a election week surprise to derail Trump's momentum, which admittedly could happen, one just would assume it would have come out the last decade. It's not John Kelley's Nazi comments, which people don't realize are recycled.Quote:
Originally Posted by DalyNot sure what you talking about here. If she is up 6 points this late he should pull out.Quote:
Originally Posted by tgull
Trump should live in PA, Mi and Wi for the next 2 weeks. Should never leave the rust belt.
Harris donors actually gave their money for this. Enjoy.
BREAKING: Beyonce reportedly got paid $10 million for her 2 minute speech last night.
BOOM! HEADSHOT!
Sunday, October 27
Montana: Trump vs. Harris The Hill/Emerson
Trump 58, Harris 39
Trump +19
dude why are you so eager to believe this they will cheat in arizona he has 0 chance
in a fair election DJT wins by a landslide, i wouldn't say he won by a landslide in 2020 but he won probably somewhat comfortably, if you think this is only place they are trying to do this you got a another thing coming... it has only just begun and they will get away with murder again... the election will be rigged by mail in ballots, the rigged voting machines and probably 1 or 2 more things that we haven't seen yet ( hearing rumors about foreign ballots from over seas showing up )... seen a clip on twitter/X where a CNN election correspondent was going over the real possibility of DJT winning the popular vote.... BUT still very possible he still loses the Electoral College...LOL... anyways no way in hell they let DJT win, the fix is in...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N6WZ3_8YgSU
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HUw9p_6qj7Q
this election isn't going to be close enough for the dems to cheat.
i feel like the most/all the swing states are AA tranches that will fall.
undecided on loading up on trumpy taking penn or just winning outright
Same poll shows Tim Sheehy up by only +4. What the Fuck is wrong with 15% of the people willing to vote for Trump but then a Dem Senator? This race controls the Senate, crazy!Quote:
Originally Posted by tgull
as much as i want Trump to win and really the whole world needs him to win... it doesn't take much to screw with them voting machines... or better yet submit a fraudulent thumb drive after "downloading" the results from said voting machines/ having the results predetermined in fraudulent thumb drives... no way in hell do they let Trump win...Quote:
Originally Posted by mulva
funny i mentioned that the whole world wants/needs a Trump win...
https://x.com/atensnut/status/185055...EENLDqSWyJ3hng
2 to 1 reached. I still maintain that we will see a couple days of 3 or 4 to 1 across all markets before the election.
It’s so funny that you Republicans are too stupid to catch us. You tried over 50 times in the last election and got your asses kicked in every court. BTW, where’s Rudy these days?Quote:
Originally Posted by 1dollarboxcaras much as i want Trump to win and really the whole world needs him to win... it doesn't take much to screw with them voting machines... or better yet submit a fraudulent thumb drive after "downloading" the results from said voting machines/ having the results predetermined in fraudulent thumb drives... no way in hell do they let Trump win...Quote:
Originally Posted by mulva
Montana is loaded with veterans that Tester has bought and paid for. But I’m confident Tester gets beat this time.Quote:
Originally Posted by The BozSame poll shows Tim Sheehy up by only +4. What the Fuck is wrong with 15% of the people willing to vote for Trump but then a Dem Senator? This race controls the Senate, crazy!Quote:
Originally Posted by tgull
@Jayjami saysit's kind of funny that the corrupt Democrat Judges wouldn't even let the cases proceed so evidence could be heard... they all kicked the cases because of "standing"... should the roles be reversed this election and Scamala wants to challenge the election... i would bet all her cases would NOW have "standing".... the fix is/was in....Quote:
It’s so funny that you Republicans are too stupid to catch us. You tried over 50 times in the last election and got your asses kicked in every court. BTW, where’s Rudy these days?
Wonder if that drop box is in a primarily democrat or republican area, are there any republican areas in Portland?
https://x.com/EricLDaugh/status/1851058001156907354
12.9% increase from 2020. Maybe Trump winning the popular vote is closer to a coin flip.
Quote:
Originally Posted by VaughnP
For what its worth the Trump and Harris adds seem way way down the past week plus down here in Americas Penis. Im sure Harris has bigger fish to fry in the rust belt.
The big ad buys seem to be on the constitutional questions for Weed and Abortion. Both of which are non stop.
Quote:
Originally Posted by DalyQuote:
Originally Posted by VaughnP
For what its worth the Trump and Harris adds seem way way down the past week plus down here in Americas Penis. Im sure Harris has bigger fish to fry in the rust belt.
The big ad buys seem to be on the constitutional questions for Weed and Abortion. Both of which are non stop.
what do you make of how off the betting markets were 2+ or so months ago ?
Quote:
Originally Posted by TellafriendQuote:
Originally Posted by Daly
what do you make of how off the betting markets were 2+ or so months ago ?
I don't think they were “off”. It’s obviously a heavily watched process by millions of active, and informed (to different degrees) voters.
When Biden shit himself at the first debate that caused a major move, and deservingly so.
When they swapped her out it was a major event and the masses thought she had a better chance than Biden and the markets adjusted. There is an inherent numbers advantage electing a democrat for president….. unless said candidate is of poor quality. So the numbers adjusted.
The masses, Id argue, are seeing the candidate is of poor quality. Well the markets adjusted again.
That all being said we have moved from the speculative phase to more of a information driven phase. Take the timing of the national anthem bet at the super bowl. At the onset the performer is announced and based on speculation money is bet. Then research happens and other factors are considered and the numbers flux based on information on prior performances, who is performing with them, what instruments….. until the ultimate data point, the practice run. At that point its more of a forgone conclusion. Right now we have actual results and not just polling.
Took this in slightly different direction than what you asked and it’s all obvious…. But I view this as just markets reacting to data. Could have broke the other way.
𝐅𝐢𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐀𝐭𝐥𝐚𝐬𝐈𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐥 𝐩𝐨𝐥𝐥𝐬: 🔴 𝐀𝐙: 𝐓𝐫𝐮𝐦𝐩+4.2 | 🔴 𝐆𝐀: 𝐓𝐫𝐮𝐦𝐩+3.1 | 🔴 𝐏𝐀: 𝐓𝐫𝐮𝐦𝐩+2.1 | 🔴 𝐌𝐈: 𝐓𝐫𝐮𝐦𝐩+1.3 | 🔴 𝐍𝐕: 𝐓𝐫𝐮𝐦𝐩+0.9 | 🔴 𝐖𝐈: 𝐓𝐫𝐮𝐦𝐩+0.6 | 🔵 𝐍𝐂: 𝐇𝐚𝐫𝐫𝐢𝐬+0.1 | 𝐀𝐭𝐥𝐚𝐬𝐈𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐥 | 𝟏𝟎/𝟐𝟓-𝟐𝟗 | 𝐋𝐕𝐬