Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
By far the biggest lesson I learned the hard way during 30 years of stock and option trading.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
By far the biggest lesson I learned the hard way during 30 years of stock and option trading.
What about the boss man likes a mean decaffeinated espresso and open up that second button?Quote:
Originally Posted by TellafriendQuote:
Originally Posted by Daly
By far the biggest lesson I learned the hard way during 30 years of stock and option trading.
It's true, scientific studies claim there are more psychopaths percentage wise in the
stock market than any other trade. It does you well to have no thought for your customer.
Quote:
Originally Posted by limitlesWhat about the boss man likes a mean decaffeinated espresso and open up that second button?Quote:
Originally Posted by Tellafriend
It's true, scientific studies claim there are more psychopaths percentage wise in the
stock market than any other trade. It does you well to have no thought for your customer.
You are pathetic. Even your insults suck. Just like your life. What's worse, you actually came back and edited that babble.
Just go ahead and get it over with.
:noose
i need help and im swallowing my pride and asking for it.
i had an edible earlier to unwind and shortly thereafter stumbled across this:
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/29/one-...cking-800.html
some mope bought 900 june call options on tsla at .... $800 strike.
please explain to me why on earth anyone does this, what outcome is he expecting here... assuming that price per share was correct at the time he's spending almost $3m and if the stock trades at anything less than $800 by expiration, he loses *his whole 2.7m*.
please connect the dots for me because im tired and high and i dont understand.
he's got some underlying position he's trading around...
literally zero shot anybody with a brain is laying out $2M in naked premium like this...
Quote:
Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis
real talk was it a drunk mouse click? what possible position could be helped there?
same premium against a $640 strike price:
$800 in june = +$2m.
remember the option lesson...each option has a corresponding length (shortness) to it (the delta)...
could have a short stock position that he wants to flatten out a little or protect against an absurd move upwards...
could have a long PUT position that he wants to flatten out...
could think volatility is cheap at that strike (kinda doubtful)…
there's a litany of stock positions or options positions that this person probably has that he's looking to hedge against...
I will say that it seems odd that he's going that far out-of-the-money in that short of a time frame, but again I highly doubt this is just a naked gambbbbbbol...you don't have $2M to make this kinda bet if it's just a naked gamble...
Quote:
Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis
absolutely fascinating. i cant imagine you ever being bored enough to do this but id love to see examples / graphs where that makes sense, im having trouble imagining where its advantageous compared to the 2nd example i posted. and i 100% believe/know youre right, im just not seeing the angle.
ill be real with you 'tine, I have zero fucking clue...ive never had a trade structured where I was buying deep out-of-the-money options as part of a bigger position...selling yeah, selling covered calls and shit like that or selling way out of whack calls that are deep out-of-the money, but nothing like this...
one of the reasons you buy out-of-the-money calls is to buy gamma...so as the stock rises and your calls start to get closer to the money, you start to get longer and your gamma accelerates, which makes you get even longer...with something this far out of the money, gamma is non-existent and will be non-existent for a few hundred dollars...
This kinda reminds me of craps. The longer you "play" the more money you are eventually laying out.
Exactly. Gamma hedging.Quote:
Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis
Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatineQuote:
Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis
absolutely fascinating. i cant imagine you ever being bored enough to do this but id love to see examples / graphs where that makes sense, im having trouble imagining where its advantageous compared to the 2nd example i posted. and i 100% believe/know youre right, im just not seeing the angle.
It's about the underlying volatility. You are scalping the acquired probability of the option finishing in the money. It gives you the ability to buy low and sell high without having directional risk. The downside is no movement or movement in only one direction. If it moves around a lot, you will have huge scalps and they easily will pay for the option premium.
you mean scalping by trading around the underlying stock, correct? I just don't get why the guy would go all the way out to the $900s instead of picking something a bit closer to the money...obv it has to do with premium outlay, but just don't get buying all that premium with non-existent gamma...Quote:
Originally Posted by monsterjQuote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
It's about the underlying volatility. You are scalping the acquired probability of the option finishing in the money. It gives you the ability to buy low and sell high without having directional risk. The downside is no movement or movement in only one direction. If it moves around a lot, you will have huge scalps and they easily will pay for the option premium.
like I said I never got to the point where I was trading the underlying against an options position...the dumbass I worked for did that a lot...
I get the theory behind delta-gamma hedging a position, but just wouldn't know how to execute it...
fuck id love to see some sort of graph demonstrating this concept. im sure ill bump into one eventually but until i see it expressed like that im probably not going to really 100% grasp the theory.
He very well could have a huge short position and made a puke point. Almost nobody naked buys or sells options besides small retail investors. It's almost entirely as a hedge or a prediction based mispriced option volatility in which they will scalp gamma either long or short.Quote:
Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenisyou mean scalping by trading around the underlying stock, correct? I just don't get why the guy would go all the way out to the $900s instead of picking something a bit closer to the money...obv it has to do with premium outlay, but just don't get buying all that premium with non-existent gamma...Quote:
Originally Posted by monsterj
like I said I never got to the point where I was trading the underlying against an options position...the dumbass I worked for did that a lot...
I get the theory behind delta-gamma hedging a position, but just wouldn't know how to execute it...
The Natenberg book is the Bible for the traders in Chicago(all options or futures go through Chicago). The strategies are now much more complicated and derivative, but it is the basics.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
I was gonna say that initially but didn't think it was correct given how far OOM those are...glad I was possibly sniffing up the right tree on that one...Quote:
Originally Posted by monsterjHe very well could have a huge short position and made a puke point. Almost nobody naked buys or sells options besides small retail investors. It's almost entirely as a hedge or a prediction based mispriced option volatility in which they will scalp gamma either long or short.Quote:
Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis
ok i just read this:
"if a trader buys a call because he/she thinks premium is cheap, he/she would then hedge off some of the directional risk by selling stock short against the calls."
and lo and behold the premium on that june 900 option was $20, and now its $34 or something.
so there's a piece of the puzzle falling into place.
Quote:
Originally Posted by monsterjThe Natenberg book is the Bible for the traders in Chicago(all options or futures go through Chicago). The strategies are now much more complicated and derivative, but it is the basics.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
LOL...I think I read that fucker a dozen times trying to pound the concepts into my head...Quote:
Originally Posted by monsterjThe Natenberg book is the Bible for the traders in Chicago(all options or futures go through Chicago). The strategies are now much more complicated and derivative, but it is the basics.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
memories...
Being long, you can win two ways. You can profit off your scalp from the underlying hedges, and you can sell your premium if it goes up more than the loss in dirextional underlying.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
thinking out loud here...
trump gets acquitted, dow surges, then stack puts on USO?
Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
will be after SOU now, so might want to see what they project his goals will be first.
is there a tool online where i can simulate what would have happened if i attempted a Weird Straddle at some arbitrary time in the past?
eg i enter a call placed on Jan 1 for market value strike price + 20% on Ford for a feb 7 call or whatever, and another put for strike price -20% on Disney, same date / duration. and i want to see what sort of profit/loss over time it generates?
if not ill write one but id rather not re-invent the wheel.
Option Alpha has a backtest program that I hear is pretty good but there is a cost to use. It's expensive but less I'm sure than what you lost on those TSLA puts. ;-)Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
https://optionalpha.com/members/options-backtesting
Quote:
Originally Posted by tony bagadonutsOption Alpha has a backtest program that I hear is pretty good but there is a cost to use. It's expensive but less I'm sure than what you lost on those TSLA puts. ;-)Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
https://optionalpha.com/members/options-backtesting
this is fucking dope but im not ready for a $500 headshot.
I hear you me either, but if I do I'll report.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatineQuote:
Originally Posted by tony bagadonuts
this is fucking dope but im not ready for a $500 headshot.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/finance/ot...-99/ar-BBZxpLsQuote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
Quote:
Originally Posted by SPIT thishttps://www.msn.com/en-us/finance/ot...-99/ar-BBZxpLsQuote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
yeah he actually posted about it on his website. he called out a chinese virologist as the source of the wuhan plague, in so many words.
not a lot of sympathy tbh.
Quote:
Originally Posted by tony bagadonutsI hear you me either, but if I do I'll report.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
i found some open source / python packages that do similar things and a website thats offering API access to historic data for stocks/etfs/etc. quite cleverly they appear to have one account tier that does stock historics and another that does the etf historics, but even if i get both its less than $100 a month, so im likely going to take the plunge.
if i get this shit up and running ill let you know.
https://github.com/AndrewRPorter/yahoo-historicalQuote:
Originally Posted by sonatineQuote:
Originally Posted by tony bagadonuts
i found some open source / python packages that do similar things and a website thats offering API access to historic data for stocks/etfs/etc. quite cleverly they appear to have one account tier that does stock historics and another that does the etf historics, but even if i get both its less than $100 a month, so im likely going to take the plunge.
if i get this shit up and running ill let you know.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Belly Busterhttps://github.com/AndrewRPorter/yahoo-historicalQuote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
interesting:
aniki:~$ python3 test.py
Date Open High ... Close Adj Close Volume
0 2007-01-03 12.327143 12.368571 ... 11.971429 10.416352 309579900
1 2007-01-04 12.007143 12.278571 ... 12.237143 10.647548 211815100
2 2007-01-05 12.252857 12.314285 ... 12.150000 10.571726 208685400
3 2007-01-08 12.280000 12.361428 ... 12.210000 10.623935 199276700
4 2007-01-09 12.350000 13.282857 ... 13.224286 11.506466 837324600
... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...
2513 2016-12-23 115.589996 116.519997 ... 116.519997 111.307320 14249500
2514 2016-12-27 116.519997 117.800003 ... 117.260002 112.014214 18296900
2515 2016-12-28 117.519997 118.019997 ... 116.760002 111.536598 20905900
2516 2016-12-29 116.449997 117.110001 ... 116.730003 111.507927 15039500
2517 2016-12-30 116.650002 117.199997 ... 115.820000 110.638626 30586300
its unclear why it truncated it to 5 entries from either direction tho.
im going through the source code in /usr/local/lib/python3.7/site-packages/yahoo_historical/fetch.py and not seeing anything that would dictate that behavior which makes me think, sadly, this is a yahoo side deprecation.
will tuck in regardless, nice catch and thank you.
edit.. holeup. changed it to an ETF and adjusted dates for 2020,1,1 -> 2020,2,1 and suddenly..:
aniki:~$ python3 test.py
Date Open High Low Close Adj Close Volume
0 2020-01-02 12.80 12.85 12.70 12.81 12.81 12509100
1 2020-01-03 13.27 13.32 13.03 13.18 13.18 34603600
2 2020-01-06 13.30 13.32 13.12 13.16 13.16 20787300
3 2020-01-07 13.10 13.18 13.01 13.13 13.13 13936600
4 2020-01-08 13.06 13.07 12.39 12.66 12.66 55347400
5 2020-01-09 12.45 12.54 12.29 12.49 12.49 27515600
6 2020-01-10 12.43 12.48 12.34 12.41 12.41 16134000
7 2020-01-13 12.31 12.31 12.16 12.20 12.20 22868200
8 2020-01-14 12.27 12.32 12.20 12.28 12.28 18693700
9 2020-01-15 12.20 12.22 12.05 12.18 12.18 15054100
10 2020-01-16 12.20 12.36 12.20 12.29 12.29 15686500
11 2020-01-17 12.33 12.37 12.24 12.33 12.33 17766100
12 2020-01-21 12.22 12.34 12.21 12.24 12.24 13677100
13 2020-01-22 12.03 12.04 11.88 11.90 11.90 25571700
14 2020-01-23 11.60 11.71 11.50 11.66 11.66 30868200
15 2020-01-24 11.49 11.50 11.31 11.43 11.43 24408200
16 2020-01-27 11.11 11.24 11.02 11.10 11.10 25140700
17 2020-01-28 11.16 11.32 11.11 11.25 11.25 24389600
18 2020-01-29 11.28 11.29 11.09 11.16 11.16 21763800
19 2020-01-30 10.93 11.09 10.85 11.08 11.08 29517200
20 2020-01-31 10.88 10.98 10.70 10.84 10.84 32402900
thats fucking dope dude.
All the data is there, it's just the display output is truncated. Will PM technical details.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatineQuote:
Originally Posted by Belly Buster
interesting:
aniki:~$ python3 test.py
Date Open High ... Close Adj Close Volume
0 2007-01-03 12.327143 12.368571 ... 11.971429 10.416352 309579900
1 2007-01-04 12.007143 12.278571 ... 12.237143 10.647548 211815100
2 2007-01-05 12.252857 12.314285 ... 12.150000 10.571726 208685400
3 2007-01-08 12.280000 12.361428 ... 12.210000 10.623935 199276700
4 2007-01-09 12.350000 13.282857 ... 13.224286 11.506466 837324600
... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...
2513 2016-12-23 115.589996 116.519997 ... 116.519997 111.307320 14249500
2514 2016-12-27 116.519997 117.800003 ... 117.260002 112.014214 18296900
2515 2016-12-28 117.519997 118.019997 ... 116.760002 111.536598 20905900
2516 2016-12-29 116.449997 117.110001 ... 116.730003 111.507927 15039500
2517 2016-12-30 116.650002 117.199997 ... 115.820000 110.638626 30586300
its unclear why it truncated it to 5 entries from either direction tho.
im going through the source code in /usr/local/lib/python3.7/site-packages/yahoo_historical/fetch.py and not seeing anything that would dictate that behavior which makes me think, sadly, this is a yahoo side deprecation.
will tuck in regardless, nice catch and thank you.
edit.. holeup. changed it to an ETF and adjusted dates for 2020,1,1 -> 2020,2,1 and suddenly..:
aniki:~$ python3 test.py
Date Open High Low Close Adj Close Volume
0 2020-01-02 12.80 12.85 12.70 12.81 12.81 12509100
1 2020-01-03 13.27 13.32 13.03 13.18 13.18 34603600
2 2020-01-06 13.30 13.32 13.12 13.16 13.16 20787300
3 2020-01-07 13.10 13.18 13.01 13.13 13.13 13936600
4 2020-01-08 13.06 13.07 12.39 12.66 12.66 55347400
5 2020-01-09 12.45 12.54 12.29 12.49 12.49 27515600
6 2020-01-10 12.43 12.48 12.34 12.41 12.41 16134000
7 2020-01-13 12.31 12.31 12.16 12.20 12.20 22868200
8 2020-01-14 12.27 12.32 12.20 12.28 12.28 18693700
9 2020-01-15 12.20 12.22 12.05 12.18 12.18 15054100
10 2020-01-16 12.20 12.36 12.20 12.29 12.29 15686500
11 2020-01-17 12.33 12.37 12.24 12.33 12.33 17766100
12 2020-01-21 12.22 12.34 12.21 12.24 12.24 13677100
13 2020-01-22 12.03 12.04 11.88 11.90 11.90 25571700
14 2020-01-23 11.60 11.71 11.50 11.66 11.66 30868200
15 2020-01-24 11.49 11.50 11.31 11.43 11.43 24408200
16 2020-01-27 11.11 11.24 11.02 11.10 11.10 25140700
17 2020-01-28 11.16 11.32 11.11 11.25 11.25 24389600
18 2020-01-29 11.28 11.29 11.09 11.16 11.16 21763800
19 2020-01-30 10.93 11.09 10.85 11.08 11.08 29517200
20 2020-01-31 10.88 10.98 10.70 10.84 10.84 32402900
thats fucking dope dude.
chinese stock exchange is banning shorts as of feb 3.
Great idea. And im banning twinks not swallowing my 4 day loada after I face fuck them.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
hot fucking take alert:
UAL is down something like 21% since 11/19 and I think it could lose another 30% in the next 12 weeks. its extremely exposed to coronavirus impact and a market thats starting to demand more than the current fed injections to stay buoyant.
weekend spread says the market likes what china's cooking vis a vis containment/response so we might see a big recovery from the bath of blood last week but it aint gon' last.
37 minutes until shanghai opens.
More like ShangoodbyeQuote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...lms-virus-fear
everything's going to be fine guys, the china stimulus package has this thing on the run.
7 minutes until ammunition, antibiotics, and insulin start to become the only forms of currency that matter.