*** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

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Originally Posted by Sanlmar

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Originally Posted by Daly

Really really simple bet.

Fade the presidents cup winner.

Works like a charm

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Chasing the NHL all time record instead of load managing will be discussed and referenced long past our deaths.

Ullmark gets hurt in a meaningless game and here you are.

I’m pretty sure I posted FLA was the side. No way Boston was 2.5x better than Panthers. People kept saying it was an “emotional hedge’ for me. I kept responding with math. It finally dawned on me what they meant.

I won that game nine ways to Sunday. Only thing I lost was a -1.5 +280 Fla.

Next year I resolve to focus on ties. I think I need a separate fund for ties to give me confidence. It was reg +430 @ 3-2 and I just couldn’t push button. I cannot explain

FLA will wreck Toronto

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LOL LOAD MANAGEMENT. THATS NOT A THING IN THE NHL, THATS FOR PUSSY ASS NBA PLAYERS.


ALSO LOL AT FLORIDA WRECKING TORONTO.

Yeah probably going to lose this. Scoring totally died, nobody even hitting now. Very tilting to have 5 runs in 1.5 innings, in a game where everyone keeps getting on base, and can't get that last run home.

2 out, top 5 now. I don't see this one coming through.

:fail2

Boy it sucks as a Dodgers fan trying to count on shipped out guys like Justin Turner and Kike Hernandez to deliver. Sawks very big on Dodgers castoffs.

Got a leadoff runner bottom 5, but Turner weakly flied out. 2 outs left.

Edit: Devers grounds into DP. 8 hits for Sawks and can't get a third run in 5 innings.

Game over for me. Ugly.

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

Sawks very big on Dodgers castoffs.

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Thank Andrew Fraudman protege L’Chiam Bloom

This is so funny. Dodgers collected Sawks garbage for years. You and I had a lot of fun at your expense.

My favorite? Hard to choose. AGon, Machine gun Kelly? The list is so long.

You got it in good today Druff. It’s poker.

I have a hard on for Toronto and that saved me.

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Originally Posted by Sanlmar

I forgot to mention I’m on Rangers larger than usual.

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Devils took down Rangers wire to wire. Devils never ever posed any threat and that isn’t hyperbole. Akira Schmidt is special.

I was massively wrong on this.

I bailed when it was still 0-0 -111. Rangers couldn’t stay in Devils zone for shit.



Devils Akira Schmidt hot goalie with 2 years professional experience. The calmest mofo. Not a wasted motion and not a twitch under the most intense pressure.

Recency is a powerful thing and I think the Canes are fraudulent so I’m rudderless on a handicap Canes Devils.

I’m watching Dodgers and finding weird relief in them winning. I’m a whore

Oh c’mon Druff, I’m kidding

Here’s a peace offering. Tell me what you think



I made a Mafia Luchese joke last time and we won. He’s 2.19 1.05 and throws a lot of “stuff”. He’s a guy. He’s facing Lorenzen the former outfielder 7.07 1.64

Mets got smacked up by Braves today. Twice. That’s like the only reason this line is so low. BOL still has -138. DK is higher. Buy now or trust somebody knows something.

The weather will be 42 degrees and crappy feeling much colder.

It’s really such a mismatch at a great price but it’s crappy cold Detroit. Mets really need to tuck it up after today’s beating and take the win. It’s a bargain your people will appreciate what with the suffering and all.

I did a half unit.

Still browsing. Weather research just blows these days.

Cleveland NYY under 7.5. Phenomenal pitchers - new kid Bibee & Cole. NYY dinged up. Wind helps a bit. Fanduel has it maybe one of your outs has it. Grab it now cause it’s disappearing

Dog of day
Reds Ashcroft vs SDP Wacha Wacha (take some back). F5 +160. I don’t care obv

Phillies Strahm v Dodgers Urias
Getting tired. Not a huge fan of Urias but he is a victim (like his wife) of bad luck. Strahm is legit. Two great bullpens. Under 8.5 -114 DK

Harper is back after Tommy John and (Danger Will Robinson) it’s Will Smith back for Dodgers. I don’t care. I don’t.

Betting unders… I’ve lost my damn mind.

What if I did a consistent presentation? Consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds.

I just don't like to bet the day before. Too many potential changes. Your logic makes sense, but I will revisit all of this tomorrow.

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

I just don't like to bet the day before. Too many potential changes. Your logic makes sense, but I will revisit all of this tomorrow.

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Is it better to try and beat the closing line

Or

Is it better to bet it at the closing line and never be wrong

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Originally Posted by Sanlmar

Oh c’mon Druff, I’m kidding

Here’s a peace offering. Tell me what you think



I made a Mafia Luchese joke last time and we won. He’s 2.19 1.05 and throws a lot of “stuff”. He’s a guy. He’s facing Lorenzen the former outfielder 7.07 1.64

Mets got smacked up by Braves today. Twice. That’s like the only reason this line is so low. BOL still has -138. DK is higher. Buy now or trust somebody knows something.

The weather will be 42 degrees and crappy feeling much colder.

It’s really such a mismatch at a great price but it’s crappy cold Detroit. Mets really need to tuck it up after today’s beating and take the win. It’s a bargain your people will appreciate what with the suffering and all.

I did a half unit.

Still browsing. Weather research just blows these days.

Cleveland NYY under 7.5. Phenomenal pitchers - new kid Bibee & Cole. NYY dinged up. Wind helps a bit. Fanduel has it maybe one of your outs has it. Grab it now cause it’s disappearing

Dog of day
Reds Ashcroft vs SDP Wacha Wacha (take some back). F5 +160. I don’t care obv

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I bet this under yesterday. Will bet it tonight. Better line last night, but two bad pitchers. With Judge and Stanton out, the Yankees lineup is as impotent as Guardians. German looked like Cole and his bullpen blew it. Still only 3-2.

Yankees did hit 3 balls out on normal day but all died on the warning track. It was 13 degrees warmer during the game than projected today. This is that Cleveland playoff game I went to last year weather where it was 16 scoreless innings until Oscar hit one out.

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

I just don't like to bet the day before. Too many potential changes. Your logic makes sense, but I will revisit all of this tomorrow.

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I just find it a relaxing exercise to close out the day. It’s a quiet period that I don’t have at any time.

Some of these games crack me up as I handicap them. I find it fun. The nonsense I type echos the internal laughter going on as I look the games over. I don’t get the same enjoyment trying to figure out other sports.

If the number I come up with can be bet given what is offered, I’m happy. I liked a lot that I just had to pass.

I am providing a public service as I help refine the lines. I should get a humanitarian award

CLV? Over rated imo but styles make fights. Let the other guys and the hive mind inform your choice at the close? I get it.

I see we beat Mets at -138 vs -153 atm. Doesn’t make it right. It’s what I liked though.

The Reds F5 dog +160 —> +140. That makes me happy. I am guilty of a streak of arrogance with my picks sometimes. The Dodgers thing is an extreme example. It cracks me up.

There are countless approaches and none are “right”. I personally don’t particularly hold the books opening lines in high esteem. The Saturday Mexico game shows you how casual some of this actually is. The overnight is where stuff gets hammered out. That’s how it is supposed to work… balancing action

The Dodgers F5 last night was an absolute beat down ✅. Tasty win. Moral defeat.

MLB 7-3 +3.80 units.

Jays under 9.5 -110



Degen picks **do not bet these unless you're a true degen.

Lakers/GS under 227
Leafs -1.5 +150

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Originally Posted by Daly

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

I just don't like to bet the day before. Too many potential changes. Your logic makes sense, but I will revisit all of this tomorrow.

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Is it better to try and beat the closing line

Or

Is it better to bet it at the closing line and never be wrong

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To be, or not to be

Mets is delayed, so it may end up a moot point. But good job getting value on that, either way.

I've got one for today. There's no bigger "sleeper" disappointment in 2023 than Hayden Wesneski. Many expected him to be a Strider-like breakout candidate, and instead he's mostly been a fail. While he pitched well against the Padres (though lasted only 5 innings), he simply isn't missing bats, holding a 15/8 K-BB ratio in 22 1/3 innings, and a 5.24/1.522 ERA/WHIP.

Trevor Williams has been exactly what the Nationals were expecting. He's giving them 5-6 innings, allowing around 3 runs each time. No strong outings yet, no terrible outings yet.

This game, taking place in DC, should be more of a toss-up. The dog line is good value here.

Washington (T. Williams) +124 vs Cubs (Wesneski)

We mourn the passing of Alcantara.

That value will prolly be gone after today.

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Originally Posted by DJ_Chaps

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Originally Posted by Sanlmar

FLA will wreck Toronto

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ALSO LOL AT FLORIDA WRECKING TORONTO.

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Fla Bobo is dialed in

Look Chaps, you got a series sale price

Dallas Kraken

FanDuel and bet365 2nd P BTTS +200

It is 4-2 after 1P.

Obv pregame algo …lol

Dare I dip my toe back into the MLB under water?

Very nervous, but here goes.

Washington (Irvin) vs Cubs (Stroman) - Under 8 -115

My under went very well. A few moments where both teams could've scored and blew it, but it's been running on pace to easily win the entire time.

2-1 Nats top of the 9th.

Easy win, right?

Not necessarily. Top 9, Cubs have 1st/3rd with 1 out. If they tie it up, the extra innings shit could easily run up the score past 8. I don't care who wins this, but I want to see it end. Obv prefer Nats just get out of it and win.

Edit: Just as I hit save, slow-ass Patrick Wisdom (who does have 11 HR) grounded into a DP. Perfect. Game over.

:entertained

Now 23-14, +7.52 units


Very solid start to the MLB season for me. Most notably, aside from that outlier 0-3 day, I've had no losing streaks, and most of my winning picks have done so pretty easily, whereas a number of my 14 losses were close. From the close game variance standpoint, I should actually have an even better record.

Feeling very good so far.