*** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

One pick today. Don't like any of the O/U for various reasons.

Washington -8.5 vs. LA Lakers

Lakers are back to back on the road, and I think they are going to slip back into some bad habits after winning back to back games and likely drawing too much false confidence. Washington blew out Miami two days ago, and is one of the better teams in the east. I smell a Lakers bedshit on this game, especially because of the back-to-back on the road factor.

Kobe was tired yesterday BEFORE the game, so I bet he's even more worn out now.

My current record is 15-13-2.

I bet 770 to win 700.

Game went off at -9 so the public likes my position.

Early on, it's a typical meaningless NBA first quarter, 18-17 with 3:39 left in the first.

I expect the Lakers to collapse in the third due to fatigue. They might hang tough for the first half.

Lakeres indeed hung tough in the 1st half.

54-52 Was.

Interestingly, Lakers right now are 4-0 against the Eastern Conference and 1-13 against the Western Conference.

Just shows you how much the east sucks.

Washington easily covered, but it wasn't looking too certain in the final 2 minutes. The Lakers cut it to 4, but then the wheels fell off. Washington made a basket, Kobe tried to shoot a 3 and missed, and then the Lakers suffered repeated lapses both offensively and defensively, turning the ball over and allowing fast break after fast break (4 in a row, lol). When the smoke cleared, Washington won by 16!

I'm now 7-2 in my last 9 NBA bets.

I got all four of my recent back-to-back on the road picks (Sunday-Wednesday) correct:

Sunday: Miami at NY: Picked Miami, won
Monday: Miami at Washington: Picked Washington, won
Tuesday: Lakers at Detroit: Picked Lakers, won
Wednesday: Lakers at Washington: Picked Washington, won

So here I picked two Miami games and two Lakers games, going with them to beat a weak team ATS on the first night, and then losing ATS against Washington (a strong team) the next night.

Record now 16-13-2.

Pick for tomorrow:

Cleveland at NY: Under 197.5

New York can't score. Here are their offensive totals in the past 6 games: 83, 86, 102 (OT-- 95 in regulation), 78, 79, 93. That's an average of 85.7 points (ignoring the OT points). The last two were with Carmelo's return, so as you can see, things haven't changed much.

The Cavs, trying to adjust their strategy due to their disappointing start, are now running a more defensive game. Through November 15, they were involved in numerous high scoring contests, and most games saw both teams scoring 100+. Since then, they have kept opponents under 100 points 6 out of 8 games, and under 95 points 5 out of 8.

Here is an article about the Cavs' defensive improvement: http://www.fearthesword.com/2014/12/...nd-the-success

I think this will be another low-scoring affair.

Druff you aware that BCP does sports? Could be another set of lines to choose from

Bama +125 to win NC

ANyone else think Bears ML?

I finally got a little $ on bovada

I feel like betting but not just going to throw my money away

Im watching the Cowboys/Bears; does anyone do this live betting thing on there? Im sure most of it is a suckers bet but I didn't know if there were any props worth betting on

Thoughts?

Bet earlier today on Cle/NY under 197, then the line went up to 197.5 again.

Oh well.

After 1, it's 25-24, so right on pace. Hopefully the scoring dies down a bit in the 2nd quarter.

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Originally Posted by Gordman

I finally got a little $ on bovada

I feel like betting but not just going to throw my money away

Im watching the Cowboys/Bears; does anyone do this live betting thing on there? Im sure most of it is a suckers bet but I didn't know if there were any props worth betting on

Thoughts?

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simpdog does live betting. I'd definitely talk to him for pointers.

Fuck Bovada in their fucking ass. They have my money and they don't know what happened to it. Deposit was declined for NO reason, and now the money is neither in my netspend account nor my Bovada account. Now, according to "Akeem" on the bovada deposit #, I get to wait up to "7-10 business days" for it to get credited back to my netspend account


04217506uy3 t0y2p4qwam4wo;gitw lF/JM;AjsNG;AESKHYJTMF,L5KY,lq3k

Kind of funny. The first thing that popped in my head when Akeem told me his name was of course this:

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Originally Posted by JUSTIFIEDhomicide

ANyone else think Bears ML?

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Why on earth do you keep betting Bears ML? They are burning money.

Shit, this live betting is kind of fun, and so far im killing it!

well, percentage wise anyway...im not betting tons of $

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Originally Posted by BeerAndPoker

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Originally Posted by JUSTIFIEDhomicide

ANyone else think Bears ML?

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Why on earth do you keep betting Bears ML? They are burning money.

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Exactly. Not against decent teams anyways

Golden State/NOP over 100.5 first half -110.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Gordman

I finally got a little $ on bovada

I feel like betting but not just going to throw my money away

Im watching the Cowboys/Bears; does anyone do this live betting thing on there? Im sure most of it is a suckers bet but I didn't know if there were any props worth betting on

Thoughts?

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I like live betting at times since you get a feel of how the game is going.

Tonight took Cavs -2 in 4th quarter. It looked like the Cavs were playing a lot better just had a bad run in the 3rd. You don't get that info if you bet before the game.

Or I like to live bet outliers. If you liked the over 51 in the NFL game tonight, you could have got a far better # after the first quarter. Maybe it's down to 44 and you still take it despite the no scores in first. You know both teams will score and Cutler will likely turn it over 1-2 times.

I like the concept of live betting, but Bovada takes such awwwwwwful juice on live bets that it's absolutely not worth doing there.

On a side note, I "easily" won my NY/Cle under bet. The reason I put "easily" is because I won by 20 points, but was a hair away from a frustrating OT situation, as a last-second tying 3 went in, but was after the buzzer so it didn't count.

Now 8-2 in my last 10, 17-13-2 overall.

I hope that some of you have been riding along with my successful picks, but I wouldn't blame you if you haven't, due to my losing streak prior to it.

I dont usually bet against the Bears, but I had to tonight. They completely blow. I will probably bet against them the rest of the season, knowing how shitty they are. The press keeps crushing them here. We are stuck with Cutler for quite a while.

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Originally Posted by DRK Star

I dont usually bet against the Bears, but I had to tonight. They completely blow. I will probably bet against them the rest of the season, knowing how shitty they are. The press keeps crushing them here. We are stuck with Cutler for quite a while.

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No offense, but you finally figured this out now?

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Originally Posted by Gordman

Fuck Bovada in their fucking ass. They have my money and they don't know what happened to it. Deposit was declined for NO reason, and now the money is neither in my netspend account nor my Bovada account. Now, according to "Akeem" on the bovada deposit #, I get to wait up to "7-10 business days" for it to get credited back to my netspend account


04217506uy3 t0y2p4qwam4wo;gitw lF/JM;AjsNG;AESKHYJTMF,L5KY,lq3k

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I've had shit like this happen so many times with bovada. Not with visa deposits, but with WU or MG deposits. I send them the money, their shady people in the Philippines pick it up, and then every single time bovada gives me some bullshit reason why they can't credit the money to my account. Usually I go back and forth arguing with them for about 24 hours, I keep telling them that I can prove that they picked up the money, and they say they are sorry but there is nothing that they can do. Then eventually I say either I have the money in my account within the hour, or I am going to file a complaint with my bank and reverse the thousands of dollars in visa deposits that I have made in the last year. Within a half hour they have the money in my account. You should threaten to reverse the charge. It works for me every time.

It really boggles my mind why they can't get the deposits right. I sometimes wonder if they are just fucking with me because I play poker, and win more than I lose, and don't play the casino or bet much sports. So maybe they just don't care, and don't really want my service?

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Originally Posted by simpdog

Golden State/NOP over 100.5 first half -110.

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Took over 52.5 3rd quarter, it won by 0.5 ftw. Didn't post on PFA and I win it.

Took under 54.5 in the 4th. Posted it on PFA. Let's see if I lose another posted pick.


Shoutout to Jay Cutler for paying for all my xmas presents tonight. Thanks bud.

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Originally Posted by SetofKs

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Originally Posted by Gordman

Fuck Bovada in their fucking ass. They have my money and they don't know what happened to it. Deposit was declined for NO reason, and now the money is neither in my netspend account nor my Bovada account. Now, according to "Akeem" on the bovada deposit #, I get to wait up to "7-10 business days" for it to get credited back to my netspend account


04217506uy3 t0y2p4qwam4wo;gitw lF/JM;AjsNG;AESKHYJTMF,L5KY,lq3k

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I've had shit like this happen so many times with bovada. Not with visa deposits, but with WU or MG deposits. I send them the money, their shady people in the Philippines pick it up, and then every single time bovada gives me some bullshit reason why they can't credit the money to my account. Usually I go back and forth arguing with them for about 24 hours, I keep telling them that I can prove that they picked up the money, and they say they are sorry but there is nothing that they can do. Then eventually I say either I have the money in my account within the hour, or I am going to file a complaint with my bank and reverse the thousands of dollars in visa deposits that I have made in the last year. Within a half hour they have the money in my account. You should threaten to reverse the charge. It works for me every time.

It really boggles my mind why they can't get the deposits right. I sometimes wonder if they are just fucking with me because I play poker, and win more than I lose, and don't play the casino or bet much sports. So maybe they just don't care, and don't really want my service?

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thanks for this bit of info, im probably going to try this tomorrow. Never in the history of me using a Visa et al, have I had something sitting in limbo. ESPECIALLY for a flat out DECLINE (which it shouldn't have been in the first place) As of now it's been about four hours, and they told me that it would be reversed within a half hour LOL. My Netspend statement is showing some pending transaction to Shanghai...well, that's reassuring!
Oh well, im sure Akeem is working hard on my issue as we speak...

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Originally Posted by SetofKs

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Gordman

Fuck Bovada in their fucking ass. They have my money and they don't know what happened to it. Deposit was declined for NO reason, and now the money is neither in my netspend account nor my Bovada account. Now, according to "Akeem" on the bovada deposit #, I get to wait up to "7-10 business days" for it to get credited back to my netspend account


04217506uy3 t0y2p4qwam4wo;gitw lF/JM;AjsNG;AESKHYJTMF,L5KY,lq3k

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I've had shit like this happen so many times with bovada. Not with visa deposits, but with WU or MG deposits. I send them the money, their shady people in the Philippines pick it up, and then every single time bovada gives me some bullshit reason why they can't credit the money to my account. Usually I go back and forth arguing with them for about 24 hours, I keep telling them that I can prove that they picked up the money, and they say they are sorry but there is nothing that they can do. Then eventually I say either I have the money in my account within the hour, or I am going to file a complaint with my bank and reverse the thousands of dollars in visa deposits that I have made in the last year. Within a half hour they have the money in my account. You should threaten to reverse the charge. It works for me every time.

It really boggles my mind why they can't get the deposits right. I sometimes wonder if they are just fucking with me because I play poker, and win more than I lose, and don't play the casino or bet much sports. So maybe they just don't care, and don't really want my service?

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No, it's just general incompetence.

My WU deposits have always gone through without problem, except in the case where WU themselves hold it up because they think I'm being romance scammed.

With that said, Bovada customer service is awful, and it is infuriating dealing with them. They're open 24/7 and can be reached by telephone, but it's maddening how incompetent/powerless/clueless most reps are.

Here is a pick for tomorrow:

Lakers at Boston - Over 216

This should be another monster scoring output, similar to the 239-point game we just saw with Lakers and Minnesota.

Here are the last scores of games where Boston played teams which typically score a lot of points:
109-105 (Atlanta)
94-88 (Portland)
118-114 (Phoenix)
122-121 (Cleveland)
110-107 (Toronto)
118-113 (Dallas)

So the only game where few points were scored was versus Portland. In every other example, a lot of points were scored and the game went OVER.

The Lakers are even more extreme:
129-122 OT (Toronto)
120-119 (Minnesota)
101-94 OT (Denver)
140-106 (Dallas)
114-109 (Atlanta)
136-115 (Golden State)
112-106 (Phoenix)
127-104 (Golden State)
118-111 (Clippers)
119-99 (Phoenix)

So again, every single one of these went over with the exception of one -- the Denver game (which I sadly bet on, and actually had a line of 221!)

So basically you have two teams which don't play any defense, and both of these teams have a fast style which also runs up their own score.

Lakers have allowed a whopping 111.1 points on average, but much more than that against high-scoring teams, as you can see above.

Boston has allowed over 107 points on average, and again more than that against high-scoring teams.

Both teams still score nearly 104 points per game themselves, despite both having poor records.

I think this line of 216 is a bargain.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by BeerAndPoker

Quote:

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Originally Posted by JUSTIFIEDhomicide

ANyone else think Bears ML?

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Why on earth do you keep betting Bears ML? They are burning money.

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lol two weeks in a row i've had this awful idea...

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Originally Posted by JUSTIFIEDhomicide

Quote:

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Originally Posted by BeerAndPoker

Why on earth do you keep betting Bears ML? They are burning money.

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lol two weeks in a row i've had this awful idea...

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The first step to recovery is admitting you have a problem.

Lakers shot up to 218 before it even came on the board on Bovada.

Right now it's 218 -105 on Bovada, 218 -110 in Vegas.

I took 945 to win 900.

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Originally Posted by Hockey Guy

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Originally Posted by JUSTIFIEDhomicide

lol two weeks in a row i've had this awful idea...

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The first step to recovery is admitting you have a problem.

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I am pretty much

Somehow I missed this one:

Washington (at home) -4.5 -105 vs Denver

Washington playing well recently, 12-5 overall. Denver is a middling 9-9 and is much more formidable at home in the altitude.

Bovada was -4.5 -115 instead of 105, so it cost me an extra $70 in risk to attempt to win the same 700.

Hope it wins. The line went to -5 -105 right after I bet (on Bovada), so I moved it.

Boston overs have been a tasty little secret for the past couple of weeks.

don't bet often but decided to take a flyer with a local bookie. $100 on a 3 team parlay

Oregon -14
Wisconsin -4
Baylor -7.5

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Originally Posted by Sloppy Joe

Boston overs have been a tasty little secret for the past couple of weeks.

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Unfortunately today's game is leaving more of a bad taste.

My late pick on Washington was a huge success -- won by 30 points when the line was -4.5.

However, Boston/LA hasn't scored at the pace I expected, and there are only 177 points with 6:55 remaining.

It's pretty much screwed, unless the Lakers come back from 11 down and force it to OT.

Oh well.. good pick in theory, just looks like it's not happening. Too bad I bet a little extra money on it.

Edit: Problem has been the Lakers. Boston has scored 100 already.

Yup, gonna be 1-1 tonight.

111-88 right now with 1:33 left.

Lakers are sooooooooooooo bad, scoring so little against a horrible defending team like the Celtics.

Now 18-14-2.

So gross I get greedy and take Pacers moneyline because they are 0-15 with Cousins out of lineup. Kings win on last second shot.



Dec 05, 2014 06:59:31 PM
3 Team Parlay #382098242

Basketball - NBA Lines (Game) Moneyline

(823) Indiana Pacers +140 Dec 05/14@08:05p

Competitor: (824) Sacramento Kings

Football - College First Halfs (1H) Point Spread

(Arizona @ Oregon) - 1st Half

(108) Oregon -7½ (-120) Dec 05/14@07:00p

Competitor: (107) Arizona

Basketball - NBA Lines (Game) Point Spread

(821) Orlando Magic +5 Dec 05/14@07:05p

Competitor: (822) Utah Jazz
Web US$ 100.00 US$ 740.00

My favorite bet for today is Baylor -7.

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Originally Posted by BeerAndPoker

My favorite bet for today is Baylor -7.

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:this


I like TCU as well


So take ISU

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Originally Posted by JUSTIFIEDhomicide

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Originally Posted by BeerAndPoker

My favorite bet for today is Baylor -7.

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:this


I like TCU as well


So take ISU

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Dec 06, 2014 11:43:33 AM
Single #382209082

Football - College Lines (Game) Total

Joan C. Edwards Stadium - Huntington, WV.

Single #382196717

Football - College Lines (Game) Point Spread

(111) Iowa State +35 (-105) Dec 06/14@12:00p

Competitor: (112) TCU

Web US$ 75.00 US$ 71.43

Web US$ 75.00 US$ 71.43
Dec 06, 2014 11:21:36 AM
Single #382196788

Football - College Lines (Game) Total

(111) Iowa State vs. (112) TCU

Under 70 (-115) Dec 06/14@12:00p

Web US$ 75.00 US$ 65.22