:lolQuote:
Originally Posted by snake_in_the_ass
Brewers should have been +10000. Game over already.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Glad I didn't take that one.
As I said, it was a long shot.
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:lolQuote:
Originally Posted by snake_in_the_assBrewers should have been +10000. Game over already.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Glad I didn't take that one.
As I said, it was a long shot.
Shitty reliever O'Flaherty is killing my ATL bet.
Ugh.
Seattle about to shit the bed on my +124 bet on them.
4-2 in the 9th. Run scores after a single, wild pitch, and single. 4-3.
Trout singles, attempted throw to 3rd not in time, Trout takes second. Pujols walked intentionally to load bases. 1 out.
I've seen this play out so many times before.
Pretty sure I'm fucked.
Braves ended up getting blown out, too.
:gay
Marte whiffs on 3 pitches.
Need to get Adrelton Simmons. Come on. 0-1 count.
Angles are such a failteam that the stadium is whisper quiet in this exciting moment.
:lol
2-1 count
DO NOT FUCKING WALK HIM
Kyle Seager makes a diving stop at 3rd, hops up, fires a great throw on a bounce to 1B, game over. Close as it gets.
Gotta agree with OSA. Those Seager brothers are awesome.
This saves my day, as I go 1-1 with a small profit overall. This did snap my 5-game winning streak.
:yes
NEVERMIND got the time mixed up because I thought Druff was late for radio sweating this game
So have they basically shut down all credit cards these days from depositing? WTF. Tried credit card....nope. Tried my debit card...nope. I mean I have like 10 credit cards will any of them go through??
This is bullshit.
Time to get with the Bitcoin program, NBH
Tiger Sox. Buccholz - a legit whack job
Sox lineup looks like a spring training split squad after last nights rain delay in Baltimore and 1pm game in Detroit http://www.baseballpress.com/team-lineups/BOS#
This is a hate bet. So there is that but it's still righteous
Mobile - Baseball - MLB - 964 Detroit Tigers -130 for Game
Lol ex Red Sox GM Dan Duquette dragged Orioles rain delay 8-1 out. Ex Tigers GM Dombrowski was told by Tigers to stuff it when he tried to adjust today's start time.
I had Angels +450 bases loaded & 1 out in 9th 4-3. Just one run and we have value. That is why Angels are the Angels.... and I am a loser
ok seattle and cubs today ML. cubs finally back to mowing over everyone. but the pricing is getting so bad this may be the last series i bet on them. maybe sprinkle for RL. eyeing the nationals Atlanta over.
Another epic Red Sox bullpen collapse. So satisying on a beautiful summer day.
So even when you are wrong they make everything right.
Tigers? You talkin about playoffs? Just stop
Any hopes the Tigers had to make the playoffs are most likely gone with the injury bug.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
When they were starting to peak as JD Martinez returned and Zimmermann made an attempt at returning wasn't ready Castellanos, Maybin, and Igelsias all get hurt winding up on the DL. Cabrera actually got hurt the other night with a bicep strain but he seems to be ok. They were only 2 games back of the Indians about two weeks ago holding down a wildcard spot having a the best record after the all star break in the AL (20-9 I believe it was) but injuries will crush a team.
I don't like betting against the Dodgers because it hurts me to do, but I have to this time.
Ross Stripling is a fringe rookie who is only starting for the Dodgers because they are full of starting pitching injuries. In fact, I give the Dodgers credit for holding it together and taking first place via SF's collapse, despite their threadbare pitching staff.
But Ross Stripling isn't worth -160 on the road, especially against a Phillies team which isn't all that bad, and against Eickhoff who has thrown a number of good games this year (he allowed 0-1 runs in 2 of his 4 past starts).
So...
Phillies (Eickhoff) +150 vs. Dodgers (Stripling)
Sorry, Dodgers. I promise not to bet against you again.
I think.
It is really unbelievable how the Dodgers have hung in this season. For that reason I passed on this game, especially against the LOL Phillies. GL though. My Cubs bet won, so I am rolling it all onto Seattle! Time to start looking at RL Cubs bets again against weak teams. Speaking of weak teams, time for the Angels to give it up early against Seattle. Come on baby. SEATTLE ML.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Tasty live betting morsel
Eickhoff's ERA is 12.71 in the sixth this season.
Stripling is new to Phillies, I think. Could get whacked around in 6th after a few looks by batters.
Might scratch that itch. I might not.
Justin Turner just punished me for betting against my team.
3-run HR in the 1st, and right away I'm in a 3-0 hole.
:gay
From watching the Dodgers this year, I can tell you that they rarely shoot off 3+ run leads.
Bullpen actually has a deceptively good ERA due to shutting opponents down once the Dodgers are a good deal ahead.
So I'm not too optimistic about this one.
But who knows... it's not like Stripling is Kershaw.
I saw Dodgers bullpen rated 6th somewhere. The back end is almost lights out.
Stripling being Stripling, and the Phillies have a shot here.
Now 4-3 (was down 4-1 one point), bases loaded 2 out.
Regardless of how this ends, this is why I wanted this game at +150.
Edit: FAIL, Paredes strikes out to end inning.
Still 4 innings to play, Stripling just about out of the game, so it's going to be a bullpen game.
Go Franco!Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Druff pulls another stunt like that and he risks getting his account shut down
Yup, another close one but I move to 7-1 in last 8.
Phillies have the ability to score runs and okayish pitching, so I liked getting them at home against a fringe pitcher like Stripling.
Fyi I've won a very high % of Phillies bets this year.
Thanks for another great pick Druff. The games you have been picking have been so exciting to sweat.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
How is everyone feeling about NFL teams that may outperform their estimated win totals? I'm liking Arizona Over 9.5 (some books have this @ 10), Falcons Over 7.5, Rams Under 7.5, and 49ers under 5.5. Thoughts?
grr 1 and 1 yesterday, except I rolled the cubs W $ into a Seattle L, so really 0 and 2. oh well
KC, Seattle, Wash, Cubs and NYY today.
Gonna be disciplined with the Tigers ace vs Sawks. I wanna hate bet the Sawks and the bullpen but BnP's post about injuries to Tigers is real.Quote:
Originally Posted by Charham
In the end you gotta hit. Give edge to Sawks offense but it feels like anything can happen. Just a good take for now.
I'll just wait for Druff's picks
ok 4 and 1 yesterday, that pays! Taking the Nats, Royals, and Seattle again. Dropping the NYY and Cubs for various reasons today.
LAD and AZ game overs.
GL boys on your UFC bets.
Why is Toronto only -101?
I know they're OTR but Sanchez is very good. The other guy meh. Power vs power.
I feel like I am missing something obv
Edit
Description:
Tablet - Baseball - MLB - 971 Toronto Blue Jays -103 for Game W
Donaldson & Tulo back for Jays. Maybe not 100% but that helps.
Goes off in 20 minutes but...
Pittsburgh (Kuhl) -122 vs Marlins (Phelps)
ok 4 out of 5 today, and some live bets so $$. I passed on the yankees and cubs and they hit 2. Lets see how the line ups shake out tomorrow, but eyeing same series again.
Well, that sucked.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Pittsburgh's bats were asleep, aside from Harrison.
Sadly I almost went with Phillies & Blue Jays, and both won.
LA Dodgers (Urias) -129 at Cincinnati (DeScalfani)
St. Louis (Leake) -112 at Phillies (Velazquez)
Texas (Perez) +118 at Tampa (Smyly)
ML: KC, NYY, Cubs and AZ (my road dog)
no o/u ers. small bets.
Chatham,
Care to talk about your process?
Yeah, we are all geniuses working in a vacuum. Are you really watching that many games yourself?
Druff has elected to stay mum on this.
If it works and you got a good process - take the money.
What is the site or resource you click when you are thinking baseball. Who do you like? I gather you are a seamhead first & a gambler second.
On a nice heater. Keep it up
I've read some books have posted a Diaz/McGreggor 3 like as -170/+150.
If you can bet +150 on Diaz back up the truck.
Serbia +15.5 is tempting in the gold medal game today. A majority of these teams have played USA Basketball close.
why not discuss, requires you to focus your thinking.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
I rarely watch any games. Sometimes the Cubs when I go to the games, but I rarely if ever bet on the home team for fun. I would rather party at the game than stress $. Frankly up until a few years ago fading the Cubs made me $$, as fading the White Sox last year made me $$.
Two ways I look at it: 1. short term momentum (last 10-20 games), pitchers and home/away, and then see how the line is priced relative to the three factors. e.g. the pricing has been the problem with the cubs of course this year. you can bet 3 homes games and all it takes is one loss and you lost $. I have still bet them selectivly, but hold my nose every time given the pricing. 2. Away favorites coming off of a loss I take a serious look at, and either bet the W or the over depending on pitchers and last 10 game momentum. September gets tricky for me in baseball as teams like the Angels and Braves seem like easy money to fade. Except strong teams against them will give their guys a day off, try a rookie pitcher or whatever, so it becomes a crap shoot. I will be easing off baseball over the next two weeks.
I usually use espn for write ups, and stats. They have a good database, and you can look up things like the stronger bullpens, etc. Their live game tracker is good for in game stats to use for live betting.
I scan pregame for ideas (an ongoing thread gave there gave me the idea for the road favorite coming off a losses bets). A guy with a model there has showed the data and it has panned out all season, so I jumped on it, with a few slight variations. Obv most of pregame is garbage and I do not pay for anything, but anyone willing to write up their thoughts is worth reading.
I scan Daly's posts for prop bets and Nascar!
Otherwise I focus on hockey betting. No edge in NFL, MMA, basketball or college sports so nada else for me.
WSOP: Cliff Josephy +225
A solid player with a solid lead. He will only lose if he gets coolered.
Seat Player Country Chips
1 Griffin Benger Canada 26,175,000
2 Vojtech Ruzicka Czech Republic 27,300,000
3 Fernando Pons Spain 6,150,000
4 Qui Nguyen USA 67,295,000
5 Cliff Josephy USA 74,600,000
6 Michael Ruane USA 31,600,000
7 Gordon Vayo USA 49,375,000
8 Kenny Hallaert Belgium 43,325,000
9 Jerry Wong USA 10,175,000
Some reports coming out that Paxton Lynch is going to be the starting QB week 1. Anything +3000 or better for OROY is great value.
One Zeke injury to a knee and you got a great ticket on your hand.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
I think Diaz gives up a ton of power advantage at 155 and I'm not convinced he can get Conor to the ground there. So I gotta say, I have concerns..