*** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Sanlmar

If you're looking for some comfort Druff this isn't going to help.

Imagine for a moment that you were a Cubs fan and not Todger. You would still be getting the same action.
Consider the lost value.

Also, I honestly do not know what Druff and BG are referring to when they talk about 10 or 20 cent lines.

Nevermind, I see the great lesson above. Thx

Ok, Why do I care about the other side? I am having trouble understanding this properly. I examine each price offered in isolation. Where there is "value" (whatever that is) I accept the offer.

Why do I care about the rest of the board?

Maybe I gotta reread your post more times but I feel I am missing something.

Walk me through a $100 wager as an example.

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Each book establishes a line on a game which is supposed to be even value (0 EV). Sometimes this is skewed by betting patterns on either side, but we will ignore that for this example.

So let's say it's Marlins at Dodgers, and the line established is -160.

A 10-cent line will take 5 cents off each side, so it would be Marlins +155 and Dodgers -165. This is how the book makes guaranteed money, when both sides are bet on evenly.

If it's a 20-cent line, then you're looking at Dodgers -170 and Marlins +150, which sucks. They are literally taking $ out of your pocket that should have been yours, by charging this extra juice.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Sanlmar

If you're looking for some comfort Druff this isn't going to help.

Imagine for a moment that you were a Cubs fan and not Todger. You would still be getting the same action.
Consider the lost value.

Also, I honestly do not know what Druff and BG are referring to when they talk about 10 or 20 cent lines.

Nevermind, I see the great lesson above. Thx

Ok, Why do I care about the other side? I am having trouble understanding this properly. I examine each price offered in isolation. Where there is "value" (whatever that is) I accept the offer.

Why do I care about the rest of the board?

Maybe I gotta reread your post more times but I feel I am missing something.

Walk me through a $100 wager as an example.

---

Each book establishes a line on a game which is supposed to be even value (0 EV). Sometimes this is skewed by betting patterns on either side, but we will ignore that for this example.

So let's say it's Marlins at Dodgers, and the line established is -160.

A 10-cent line will take 5 cents off each side, so it would be Marlins +155 and Dodgers -165. This is how the book makes guaranteed money, when both sides are bet on evenly.

If it's a 20-cent line, then you're looking at Dodgers -170 and Marlins +150, which sucks. They are literally taking $ out of your pocket that should have been yours, by charging this extra juice.

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:this

Never bet into a 20 cent line. Unless u r drunk.

Thats real value talk. LOL

Druff u r very well spoken!! I had everyone confused. Thats y u r the best Radio host in poker show history,

Your reads are not always right though.. Like thinking I was black!!

But you have a mind and voice for radio!!

BTW Im half black only the bad half.

#5 days

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Sanlmar

If you're looking for some comfort Druff this isn't going to help.

Imagine for a moment that you were a Cubs fan and not Todger. You would still be getting the same action.
Consider the lost value.

Also, I honestly do not know what Druff and BG are referring to when they talk about 10 or 20 cent lines.

Nevermind, I see the great lesson above. Thx

Ok, Why do I care about the other side? I am having trouble understanding this properly. I examine each price offered in isolation. Where there is "value" (whatever that is) I accept the offer.

Why do I care about the rest of the board?

Maybe I gotta reread your post more times but I feel I am missing something.

Walk me through a $100 wager as an example.

---

Each book establishes a line on a game which is supposed to be even value (0 EV). Sometimes this is skewed by betting patterns on either side, but we will ignore that for this example.

So let's say it's Marlins at Dodgers, and the line established is -160.

A 10-cent line will take 5 cents off each side, so it would be Marlins +155 and Dodgers -165. This is how the book makes guaranteed money, when both sides are bet on evenly.

If it's a 20-cent line, then you're looking at Dodgers -170 and Marlins +150, which sucks. They are literally taking $ out of your pocket that should have been yours, by charging this extra juice.

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Thank you. You were very clear.

I wasn't so dense as to not have noticed that pehenomenon. I never knew there was a term for this. Love the language.

Live betting takes this to an extreme that often still freezes me in my tracks me when seconds count. You simply can't rationalize how those unbalanced numbers are generated. Mistakes still occur. We are not flipping coins. Especially live we are human performance vs math. You aren't even fighting the public.

Juice is juice and they provide a service. This isn't craps with predictable math vs odds that aren't true - which come home to roost in very few hours. I am not high volume.

GL

Any solid picks today Daly or Druff?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by G0lfer

Any solid picks today Daly or Druff?

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ocoOqgVwkTE

Game in 5 min.

Money running hard to Sox from a small dog originally.

Tablet - Baseball - MLB - 909 Boston Red Sox -116 for Game W


Tablet - Baseball - MLB - 910 Boston Red Sox/Cleveland Indians over 9 -103 for Game L

Totals is THE WAY TO GO

Got nicked for $3 in juice on Sawks. The Ballin.

Similar program tonight.


Tablet - Baseball - MLB - 918 Seattle Mariners/Los Angeles Angels under 8½ +105 for Game W


Accepted: 08/15/2016 4:30:54 PM
Description:
Tablet - Baseball - MLB - 917 Seattle Mariners -132 for Game W

SD (Perdomo) at Tampa (Smyly) Over 8 -110

ML nationals.

No good props tonight. Going with over 10.5 in Colorado for action.

Running pretty bad lately here.

Tampa and SD have two bad pitchers going (especially SD). I get over 8. True to form, it's already 3-1 in the bottom of the 2nd, with 2 men still on base for Tampa. Then they fail to score more, and nobody can score, or even threaten for that matter.

Almost through 6, and it's still 3-1.

:gay

Sad thing is I also considered Rockies +185 but thought that the distance between Scherzer and De La Rosa was too big, even though it's in Colorado which tends to equalize pitchers.

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

Sad thing is I also considered Rockies +185 but thought that the distance between Scherzer and De La Rosa was too big, even though it's in Colorado which tends to equalize pitchers.

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From Wikipedia: De la Rosa also holds the Rockies all-time record for best winning percentage in Coors Field with a .763 winning percentage.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by snake_in_the_ass

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

Sad thing is I also considered Rockies +185 but thought that the distance between Scherzer and De La Rosa was too big, even though it's in Colorado which tends to equalize pitchers.

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From Wikipedia: De la Rosa also holds the Rockies all-time record for best winning percentage in Coors Field with a .763 winning percentage.

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And he just gave up a 2 run shot as I posted that. LMAO!

Rays push across 2 in the 8th. Still had 1st and 2nd with 2 out in a 5-1 game.

Kevin Kiermier smacks a HR, and it's a 8-1 game.

:yes

3-1 Monday

Wanted to jump on hot Pirates (Taillon love this kid) vs Giants @ home (Samardzija slumping) before lines changed.

Tablet - Baseball - MLB - 963 Pittsburgh Pirates +103 for Game

The rest can wait

Congrats Druff. Dodgers prolly take 1st tomorrow.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Charham

ML nationals.

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Winner! Interesting game. Nothing jumps out at me for the day. Lots of fill in pitchers today.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Sanlmar

3-1 Monday

Wanted to jump on hot Pirates (Taillon love this kid) vs Giants @ home (Samardzija slumping) before lines changed.

Tablet - Baseball - MLB - 963 Pittsburgh Pirates +103 for Game

The rest can wait

Congrats Druff. Dodgers prolly take 1st tomorrow.

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Afternoon 1:20p
Cub (Cahill - first outing 2016 knee, journeyman bum) Brewers (Garza)

Fighting the urge to be a hero by taking Brewers ML. I can see Cahill getting lit up. We'll do totals.

Tablet - Baseball - MLB - 952 Milwaukee Brewers - Game #1/Chicago Cubs - Game #1 over 9 +107 for Game L

Edit
Cahill was pretty good or Brewers are inept. Never had a chance here

What the fuck is up with books these days? I just tried to deposit $500, it let the card go through but then said I had to contact them to get it it actually get the money in my account. Usually it loads to my account in about 5 seconds (although I haven't actually deposited in a long while, but still) Emailed them, and they gave me a reference number and all this bullshit I am like WTF for a deposit??? This is fucking ridiculous. They have 12 hours to get that sht in my account or I am cancelling all of it.

Oh and BTW....if Dylan Bundy is pitching, bet the Orioles. (Houston, Thursday). This kid is pretty much unhittable when you combine that with our bullpen....good luck

Cincy (Descalfani) -120 vs. Miami (Urena)
Toronto (Estrada) -108 at NY Yankees (Pineda)
Texas (Harrell) -123 vs. Oakland (Triggs)
Cardinals (Garcia) +161 at Houson (Keuchel)

Taking the lefty and the big offense against Orioles. Line was even last night and now -118 but I'll take that info as insurance.

Tablet - Baseball - MLB - 967 Boston Red Sox -118 for Game

I take no pleasure in Sox & Dodgers in 1st place. Could be a difficult night for me.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by BCR

As someone who doesn't bet baseball, but watches every Indians game, I'd be taking the over in all games v left-handed heavy line-ups like the past few series v Twins and Yankees. I don't have the inclination to go back through season and find the exact numbers given I didn't bet any, but it's been an all-season thing. I had withdrawn almost all my btc winnings like 10 days ago, variance caught up to me in all my poker games and I dropped my 3k circle limit before yesterday's game. I started to go through the coinbase process furiously last minute only to realize they required me to ship my ID and I didn't have time to get verified before first pitch. I was going to bet that o 8 last night for whatever they'd allow as Tomlin v Pineda at o 8 felt free, and ended up being 21.. For you guys betting a lot of baseball, Indians v left handed line-ups and overs is a real thing. They give up double digits half the time, and they aren't hitting poorly themselves.

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Going for it.

Baseball - 971 Chicago White Sox/Cleveland Indians over 7½ -105 for Game

Will be thrilled to get out of this day 2-2.

Jays getting crushed 5-0.

Reds up 5-2, hopefully that holds (probably will).

Cards jumped to 2-0 lead, but Garcia has been awful, and is lucky to only be down 3-2.

Harrell was terrible for Texas, but again, was lucky to only give up 1 run before being pulled. Down 1-0 there.

Blue Jay's massive comeback

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

Cincy (Descalfani) -120 vs. Miami (Urena)
Toronto (Estrada) -108 at NY Yankees (Pineda)
Texas (Harrell) -123 vs. Oakland (Triggs)
Cardinals (Garcia) +161 at Houson (Keuchel)

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Looking good. MLB GURU

Fuck 2-2

All 3 remaining games winning now, and already won Reds.

Let's see 4-0!!

Quote:

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Originally Posted by NaturalBornHustler

Oh and BTW....if Dylan Bundy is pitching, bet the Orioles. (Houston, Thursday). This kid is pretty much unhittable when you combine that with our bullpen....good luck

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Was just announced Bundy is pitching tomorrow in place of Tillman. Tillman pushed back a day.

Buck Showalter said it was a little strain but that is awfully convenient. But we need the win, and Bundy is hands down our best pitcher right now.

i just sprinkled a little on David Johnson RB Ariz at 100-1 for NFL MVP.

This kid has gotten some massive hype out of camp. I personally think they are a decent bet to have the best regular season record. Best player on the best team at 100-1 and I'm in.

One of my weirdest nights betting baseball ever.

The only standard game was Reds/Marlins. Technically it was a comeback win with Reds down 1-0 early, but they went up 5-1 in like the 2nd inning, and never gave up the lead.

Cardinals/Astros saw St. Louis go up 2-0, but Garcia looked absolutely terrible from the start. Astros caught them 2-2 right away, then went up 4-2. Garcia settled down some, but Cards put up 2 in the 4th and 4 in the 5th, going up 8-4 and winning 8-5. So that was nice, given it was a +154 underdog (that's what I was stuck betting it at, even though it was +161 on most books when I posted it).

Blue Jays were down 6-0 to the Yankees after 5. There was a rain delay in the 5th, but only after the game was official. I remember thinking, "Damn, if only this happened a few minutes earlier and became a rainout...", but amazingly the Jays put up 4 in the 6th and 8 in the 8th, blowing out the Yankees 12-6 in what looked like a lost cause after 5 innings.

Then there was Texas. Harrell looked terrrrrrrrrrible. Coudln't throw strikes. Lasted 2 innings and 47 pitches. Walked 4. Somehow wiggled out of it with just 1 run allowed (one he walked in). Then the bullpen did a great job, enough for Texas to plate a run in the 6th and another in the 7th, going up 2-1. However, Texas' closer Dyson couldn't save it, giving up an RBI single with 2 out, and it was time for extras. In the top of the 10th, it looked like a lost cause. Oakland put 2 more runs on the board. However, in the bottom of the 10th, John Axford was wild. With 1 out, Chinos walked, Lucroy walked, and Desmond walked, to load the bases. Beltran looped a nice little single to center, and it was a tie game, with men still on first and second and 1 out. Then the REALLY WEIRD decision was made to walk Beltre, loading them up. No idea why you would ever put the winning run on 3rd with 1 out, but that's what Oakland did. Game ended with Odor being hit by the first pitch thrown to him, for a walkoff.

So that's 4-0 for me.

In all four games, my team was behind at one point.

In one game, I won despite being down 6-0 in the 6th.

In one game, I won despite being down both 1-0 in the 6th and 4-2 in the 10th.

In one game, I won despite being down 4-2 in the 5th, and my team's pitcher looking horrible.

Ugly way to go 4-0 for sure, but I'll take it.

:yes

That was an astounding night.

Getting all 4 right at this point in the season - 4 that were not huge favorites - is greatness.

Cincy in particular at +162

Winning in extra innings and all that. May never feel that way again.


What's up with the Bundy Orioles line? How long does one have to wait for service around here?

I can't wait to see the price for dipshit Price vs Bundy. Marry the dreadful Sox bullpen and we have something to talk about.

4-2 since Monday. We get paid weekly but payday just changed from Thurs to Weds.

SportsBookReview shows my book as having Orioles +116

Yet my book does not have it offered yet.

I have always been curious about the feed to SBR.

Am I playing this game wrong? Serious question

Edit
I think the dumbass poker side is shutting down soon. Maybe a maintenance issue preventing this new line and pitcher.

Guarantee the number collapses.

The missing day of rest for Bundy. That can mess some guys up a bit. Oh hell, maybe it's a sign.

We will see. I sure as shit am not staying up for this. If I did I'd be live betting the Nippon Ham Fighters in Japan. That game can be beat.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

Then the REALLY WEIRD decision was made to walk Beltre, loading them up. No idea why you would ever put the winning run on 3rd with 1 out, but that's what Oakland did. Game ended with Odor being hit by the first pitch thrown to him, for a walkoff.

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Bob Melvin thought he was Buck Showalter for a moment:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xi7IPZAcP78

I am waiting for Druff's picks for tomorrow:

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

Then the REALLY WEIRD decision was made to walk Beltre, loading them up. No idea why you would ever put the winning run on 3rd with 1 out, but that's what Oakland did. Game ended with Odor being hit by the first pitch thrown to him, for a walkoff.

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Beltre is god & first ballot HOF. There is no pitch he can't hit. I will touch his hair in Cooperstown.

Accepted: 08/17/2016 2:58:46 AM
Description:
Tablet - Baseball - Japan - 91718 Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters -193 for Game

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Sanlmar

SportsBookReview shows my book as having Orioles +116

Yet my book does not have it offered yet.

I have always been curious about the feed to SBR.

Am I playing this game wrong? Serious question

Edit
I think the dumbass poker side is shutting down soon. Maybe a maintenance issue preventing this new line and pitcher.

Guarantee the number collapses.

The missing day of rest for Bundy. That can mess some guys up a bit. Oh hell, maybe it's a sign.

We will see. I sure as shit am not staying up for this. If I did I'd be live betting the Nippon Ham Fighters in Japan. That game can be beat.

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We had an off day Bundy is on normal rest.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by NaturalBornHustler

We had an off day Bundy is on normal rest.

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Forgot my drunken episode last night and the Orioles.

Who was that guy who bet the Ham Fighters? Lol, found money when I logged in.

Well, the Orioles value fell like I predicted but I will take that as confirmation and go a little bigger.

Love Happ for Toronto. He's been an ATM too.


Tablet - Baseball - MLB - 916 Baltimore Orioles +106 for Game

Tablet - Baseball - MLB - 913 Toronto Blue Jays -148 for Game

Thx for the reports from ground zero, NBH. News you can use.

Dodgers in 1st place today. This is a blessing in disguise. Poor Druff. It's just gonna hurt more.

Lol, a guy named Melvin makes my day.

7-2 Toronto 5th inn

Happ is dealin

Toronto went smooth

Remember when sites used to deposit something to your account to lure you back in?

ACR, BCP & Carbon were the last to do this in my experience. That must have been 2 years ago though

I withdrew from Sportsbook.ag a while ago and noticed I just got some casino $. I also noticed they put in some free bets over the past month or two.

If you have a dead sportsbook.ag account you might have a little something there.

GL

Seattle (Martin) +124 at Angels (Skaggs)
Atlanta (Foltynewicz) -112 vs. Minnesota (Gibson)

For those gamblers out there, you might want to take a shot at Brewers +285, as Lester hasn't been unhittable, and Nelson has good stuff but is highly inconsistent. Just saying that +285 is pretty good value, but it's a longshot. Bovada is only +255 so I'm not doing it.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

Seattle (Martin) +124 at Angels (Skaggs)
Atlanta (Foltynewicz) -112 vs. Minnesota (Gibson)

For those gamblers out there, you might want to take a shot at Brewers +285, as Lester hasn't been unhittable, and Nelson has good stuff but is highly inconsistent. Just saying that +285 is pretty good value, but it's a longshot. Bovada is only +255 so I'm not doing it.

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Brewers should have been +10000. Game over already.