So coronavirus is definitely going to kill a few of us.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by blake

notice the trump guys here ignore that trump flatout said we'd be down to 1 or 2 cases a month ago.

oh and Fox News Poll Shows Joe Biden CRUSHING Trump By 25 Points in Swing Counties

https://www.mediaite.com/news/fox-ne...wing-counties/


biden is a walking corpse at this point. great president, guys

---

Predicit shows Trump CRUSHING Biden by 50-41. I think we can all agree the most accurate 'poll' is the one where people put their money behind.

Just about every scientist says this virus will exit the US in the June time-frame. You will see historic gains in employment and in the stock market in the 3rd quarter just in time for the elections.

Biden is actually catching a break now, because he truly is battling dementia but people can't see it. Come the debates he will be 7 months older than he is today. These are not gaffes, he literally is fighting to get the words out. I'd be shocked if Trump did not win at the same margin in 2016 or even higher.

Timing is everything, and timing is on Trump's side this go around.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by tgull

Just about every scientist says this virus will exit the US in the June time-frame.

---

not for nothing but a lot of estimates for peak were optimistic, and/or based on the laughable assertion that this virus was impacted by warm weather, and/or did not consider the impact of a 6 week lag before we even started rolling out effective mitigating controls, and certainly didnt factor in those controls being ignored.

mardis gras and 'spring break' completely rewrote the timelines, for example.

also hows those drive through testing sites going lmao

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by tgull

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by blake

notice the trump guys here ignore that trump flatout said we'd be down to 1 or 2 cases a month ago.

oh and Fox News Poll Shows Joe Biden CRUSHING Trump By 25 Points in Swing Counties

https://www.mediaite.com/news/fox-ne...wing-counties/


biden is a walking corpse at this point. great president, guys

---

Predicit shows Trump CRUSHING Biden by 50-41. I think we can all agree the most accurate 'poll' is the one where people put their money behind.

Just about every scientist says this virus will exit the US in the June time-frame. You will see historic gains in employment and in the stock market in the 3rd quarter just in time for the elections.

Biden is actually catching a break now, because he truly is battling dementia but people can't see it. Come the debates he will be 7 months older than he is today. These are not gaffes, he literally is fighting to get the words out. I'd be shocked if Trump did not win at the same margin in 2016 or even higher.

Timing is everything, and timing is on Trump's side this go around.

---

we broke this down already but the entire election comes down to wisconsin. pa and michigan are lost to trump

Quote:

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Originally Posted by DonaldTrumpsHairPiece

Quote:

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Originally Posted by blake

saying "i get that the virus is real and we need to do something" while at the same time saying, "we need to implement measures like being courteous when you cough" makes you sound like a legit retard. i think that's what gordman is trying to say.

you just simply don't believe the charts you're seeing. i don't know what else to say about this but you're an idiot.

if we go back to business as usual, as you're suggesting, thousands of people will die that didn't have to.

---

Blake, which the more I say it blaaaaayk. Who names their kid Blake? Mildred and Reginald Snoflakski?

Any way, I like how you state if we get back to work thousands will die. Guess what happens if we don't. Cause and effect.

Why do I suddenly feel like I am talking to AOC.

---

cause you're not very bright

oh hey that miracle drug trump is praising, yeah so its based on a paper by a guy with a history of abject fraud.

Embedded Tweet

cool cool, ok.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by sonatine

Quote:

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Originally Posted by OSA

Up 15.6% over the past 3 months. Thanks for asking.

Reading the money bill, and I just want to clarify. If you are unemployed because of corona, you get unemployment--even if you didn't qualify regularly... AND $600 a week for 16 weeks?

Also, is this money being taxed?

I might have to ask to get fired cause I for sure ain't making any commission the next 4 months and I might as well continue to generate revenue elsewhere.

No one cut's OSA's salary.

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you dont get unemployment if you leave a position voluntarily.

you should also, perhaps, consider what i told you about reputation in your current field of employment.

---

I would obviously have them lay me off. If I would be making close to the same amount being unemployed for 4 months, why should I not do that? My CEO wants me to cut salary and WFH the ENTIRE year.

The reality is if I dont book appointments, I am going to get fired regardless. If these past 2 weeks are any indication of whats going to happen in the following 2 months, lets say, I am going to get fired soon anyway. Might as well stock up on checks now.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by sonatine

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by tgull

Just about every scientist says this virus will exit the US in the June time-frame.

---

not for nothing but a lot of estimates for peak were optimistic, and/or based on the laughable assertion that this virus was impacted by warm weather, and/or did not consider the impact of a 6 week lag before we even started rolling out effective mitigating controls, and certainly didnt factor in those controls being ignored.

mardis gras and 'spring break' completely rewrote the timelines, for example.

---

Well, you have to understand the original baseline of data came from China, who were not counting asymptomatic symptoms as positive, which terribly skewed things. I saw a Stanford PHD on Smerconish this morning. He said based on Italy, the real mortality rate is probably less that 1% worldwide. He firmly asserted this 2-4% death rate was always bullshit. I mean, how did we go from 2M dead in the US to 81,000 in a week?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by sonatine

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by tgull

Just about every scientist says this virus will exit the US in the June time-frame.

---

not for nothing but a lot of estimates for peak were optimistic, and/or based on the laughable assertion that this virus was impacted by warm weather, and/or did not consider the impact of a 6 week lag before we even started rolling out effective mitigating controls, and certainly didnt factor in those controls being ignored.

mardis gras and 'spring break' completely rewrote the timelines, for example.

---

Druff: “this emergency doesn’t fall in Trump wheelhouse”. I have been stunned silent for a bit here. Full team retard apologist idiocy.

Anyhoo,

The Falwell business, Liberty Univeristy, is open for all students’ Christian education. Jerry Falwell Jr. is a big time Trump supporter as they share similar scientific philosophies. There is a belief that THE ONLY REASON IS TO DEMONSTRATE TRUMP LOYALTY.

What is ironic is that Liberty University is one of the country’s leading online schools. I’ve written about the shocking money the sports teams have at their disposal and online is always offered as the reason why.

NY is averaging 1 fatality every 17 minutes now. April 5 Coumo says hospitals will be out of shit. Coumo April 6th is going to go on a rampage.

I was still a late stage Trump guy. I was shopping and really trying with Democrats. As of Biden, I was just gonna sit out. I am hopeful Biden dies and something miraculous happens at the DNC convention.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by tgull

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by blake

notice the trump guys here ignore that trump flatout said we'd be down to 1 or 2 cases a month ago.

oh and Fox News Poll Shows Joe Biden CRUSHING Trump By 25 Points in Swing Counties

https://www.mediaite.com/news/fox-ne...wing-counties/


biden is a walking corpse at this point. great president, guys

---

Predicit shows Trump CRUSHING Biden by 50-41. I think we can all agree the most accurate 'poll' is the one where people put their money behind.

Just about every scientist says this virus will exit the US in the June time-frame. You will see historic gains in employment and in the stock market in the 3rd quarter just in time for the elections.

Biden is actually catching a break now, because he truly is battling dementia but people can't see it. Come the debates he will be 7 months older than he is today. These are not gaffes, he literally is fighting to get the words out. I'd be shocked if Trump did not win at the same margin in 2016 or even higher.

Timing is everything, and timing is on Trump's side this go around.

---

i like that you think predictit is the best indicator of who will win the election.

predictit has the following:

which party to win the election:

pennsylvania: 62 democrat 42 republican
michigan: 68 democrat 36 republican
wisconsin 56 democrat 45 republican

just for fun, go to 270 to win and give trump every state that he's favored to win on predictit -- which you think is the most "accurate poll"

let me know how that goes.

want me to spoil it for you?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by OSA

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by sonatine

you dont get unemployment if you leave a position voluntarily.

you should also, perhaps, consider what i told you about reputation in your current field of employment.

---

I would obviously have them lay me off. If I would be making close to the same amount being unemployed for 4 months, why should I not do that? My CEO wants me to cut salary and WFH the ENTIRE year.

---

its a tough spot. also your role (sales) is fairly unique in as much there is a large turnover as people pursue better opportunities, and thats burnt into the reputation equity as well i suppose.

so yeah now that i think about it, you might be good there. but youre in for a world of hurt if you end up running out of benefits before things are sorted, or if someone nails a 3 pointer from mid court and bangs out a vaccine; youre going to be competing for job interviews with a lot of seasoned heads. thats a terrible spot compared to 'yeah i held onto my position because im a king' etc.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by blake

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by tgull

Predicit shows Trump CRUSHING Biden by 50-41. I think we can all agree the most accurate 'poll' is the one where people put their money behind.

Just about every scientist says this virus will exit the US in the June time-frame. You will see historic gains in employment and in the stock market in the 3rd quarter just in time for the elections.

Biden is actually catching a break now, because he truly is battling dementia but people can't see it. Come the debates he will be 7 months older than he is today. These are not gaffes, he literally is fighting to get the words out. I'd be shocked if Trump did not win at the same margin in 2016 or even higher.

Timing is everything, and timing is on Trump's side this go around.

---

we broke this down already but the entire election comes down to wisconsin. pa and michigan are lost to trump

---

Ok, you solved the election. It's always funny when you assert yourself time and again as the smartest guy in the room. Of course, you would never make a 5 figure bet on the election now. Why not if you are so certain? It's the old saying, put your money where your mouth is. But here again, you won't, either because you don't have the money or you don't believe in what you are spouting. 50-50 on either one.

You might want to go to the comment section on Predictit and let all the bettors know how wrong they are. Of course here again, you wont put any money down other than maybe a $20 spot.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by blake

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by tgull

Predicit shows Trump CRUSHING Biden by 50-41. I think we can all agree the most accurate 'poll' is the one where people put their money behind.

Just about every scientist says this virus will exit the US in the June time-frame. You will see historic gains in employment and in the stock market in the 3rd quarter just in time for the elections.

Biden is actually catching a break now, because he truly is battling dementia but people can't see it. Come the debates he will be 7 months older than he is today. These are not gaffes, he literally is fighting to get the words out. I'd be shocked if Trump did not win at the same margin in 2016 or even higher.

Timing is everything, and timing is on Trump's side this go around.

---

i like that you think predictit is the best indicator of who will win the election.

predictit has the following:

which party to win the election:

pennsylvania: 62 democrat 42 republican
michigan: 68 democrat 36 republican
wisconsin 56 democrat 45 republican

just for fun, go to 270 to win and give trump every state that he's favored to win on predictit -- which you think is the most "accurate poll"

let me know how that goes.

want me to spoil it for you?

---

Yes, please take time our of your Saturday and spoil it for me on an election 8 months away. It is hilarious how you get so worked up literally every day on this. Go get some fresh air.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by tgull

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by blake

we broke this down already but the entire election comes down to wisconsin. pa and michigan are lost to trump

---

Ok, you solved the election. It's always funny when you assert yourself time and again as the smartest guy in the room. Of course, you would never make a 5 figure bet on the election now. Why not if you are so certain? It's the old saying, put your money where your mouth is. But here again, you won't, either because you don't have the money or you don't believe in what you are spouting. 50-50 on either one.

You might want to go to the comment section on Predictit and let all the bettors know how wrong they are. Of course here again, you wont put any money down other than maybe a $20 spot.

---

you are attacking my finances yet you brag about fine dining in chain restaurants (in a not trying to make fun of yourself kind of way).

Beddy-bye time last night: 12 midnight.
Wakey-wake just now: 11:55 am.

Go to check that market. Down another 4% today I see.

Wait: that's the same pattern as yesterday.

D'oh, it's Saturday.

Things that would never happen in the "real world" for me, I swear.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by tgull

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by sonatine

not for nothing but a lot of estimates for peak were optimistic, and/or based on the laughable assertion that this virus was impacted by warm weather, and/or did not consider the impact of a 6 week lag before we even started rolling out effective mitigating controls, and certainly didnt factor in those controls being ignored.

mardis gras and 'spring break' completely rewrote the timelines, for example.

---

Well, you have to understand the original baseline of data came from China, who were not counting asymptomatic symptoms as positive, which terribly skewed things. I saw a Stanford PHD on Smerconish this morning. He said based on Italy, the real mortality rate is probably less that 1% worldwide. He firmly asserted this 2-4% death rate was always bullshit. I mean, how did we go from 2M dead in the US to 81,000 in a week?

---

i mean, classic statistics; always remove the most extreme models when trying to find the north star of a mean predictive model.

heres the thing tho. we still have hospital beds available. in italy, the bodycount skyrocketted once the hospitals filled up. thats when things went haywire.

georgia red lined late last week, ny has already built new hospitals that are opening for biz next week, not sure whats up with cali in general.. so the next 2 weeks are the ones where we likely find out what _our_ death rate is, because again death rate is directly tied to available resources.

but setting all that aside, i think your optimism is much more valid now than before, based on the death rates that im clocking. so you may well be right. but again when youre pinning hopes on one of two extremist estimates, that often goes poorly, so hedge.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by tgull

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by blake

i like that you think predictit is the best indicator of who will win the election.

predictit has the following:

which party to win the election:

pennsylvania: 62 democrat 42 republican
michigan: 68 democrat 36 republican
wisconsin 56 democrat 45 republican

just for fun, go to 270 to win and give trump every state that he's favored to win on predictit -- which you think is the most "accurate poll"

let me know how that goes.

want me to spoil it for you?

---

Yes, please take time our of your Saturday and spoil it for me on an election 8 months away. It is hilarious how you get so worked up literally every day on this. Go get some fresh air.

---

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by tgull

Predicit shows Trump CRUSHING Biden by 50-41. I think we can all agree the most accurate 'poll' is the one where people put their money behind.

---

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by tgull

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by sonatine

not for nothing but a lot of estimates for peak were optimistic, and/or based on the laughable assertion that this virus was impacted by warm weather, and/or did not consider the impact of a 6 week lag before we even started rolling out effective mitigating controls, and certainly didnt factor in those controls being ignored.

mardis gras and 'spring break' completely rewrote the timelines, for example.

---

Well, you have to understand the original baseline of data came from China, who were not counting asymptomatic symptoms as positive, which terribly skewed things. I saw a Stanford PHD on Smerconish this morning. He said based on Italy, the real mortality rate is probably less that 1% worldwide. He firmly asserted this 2-4% death rate was always bullshit. I mean, how did we go from 2M dead in the US to 81,000 in a week?

---

Current death rate in Italy is over 10% with most of their confirmed cases not resolved.

For it to be 1% you would need over 90% of infections to be asymptomatic and not being recorded.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by sonatine

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by OSA

I would obviously have them lay me off. If I would be making close to the same amount being unemployed for 4 months, why should I not do that? My CEO wants me to cut salary and WFH the ENTIRE year.

---

its a tough spot. also your role (sales) is fairly unique in as much there is a large turnover as people pursue better opportunities, and thats burnt into the reputation equity as well i suppose.

so yeah now that i think about it, you might be good there. but youre in for a world of hurt if you end up running out of benefits before things are sorted, or if someone nails a 3 pointer from mid court and bangs out a vaccine; youre going to be competing for job interviews with a lot of seasoned heads. thats a terrible spot compared to 'yeah i held onto my position because im a king' etc.

---

Banging out a vaccine is the least likelihood of happening though. I agree though if July 31st comes and shit hasn't gotten better I'm gonna be living on 400 a week and looking for non existent jobs. That is, if the government doesn't extend those benefits. Feel like an extension is more likelihood to have happen than a full blown " Hey were all cured now" deal.


I could tough it out and in 4-5 weeks get the boot cause I have booked like 3 meetings in that timeframe. Its so sick though, the first two weeks I had 15 booked, on track for 30 for the month, and now I am going to end with 17. They see how awesome I am, question is, are they willing to keep me along for months until this gets better. I am going to err on the side of caution and say no.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by sonatine

heres the thing tho. we still have hospital beds available.

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Not following the Boston & NYC clearly.

But aside from that always entertaining