*** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

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Originally Posted by Kalam

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Originally Posted by BCR

Well I hope you win, because I can’t. Giving 2.5. Has to be among the worst beats I’ve ever taken. That was 99.99999%.

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It should come as no surprise to anyone that I also had Ark -2.5.

The sad thing is I am not even sure that is the worst beat I had this CFB season

Utah St. not covering against Boise was arguably just as improbable.

If/When Van Pelt does a 5 worst bad beats of the season segment, I would put the O/U on 3.5 as far as me being on the losing side of them.

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We are going to be close. I forgot about the Raiders game just a week ago. That’s like maybe in my top 10 this year because I wasn’t guaranteed to win with 3.5 in OT, just likely, but that ending.

Between us, we might have top 5 covered with Druffs Vikings game. The worst part is I was jumping in car to bet on Texas Tech when I saw the score was tied and was like let me wait, maybe I’ll bet it at half and instead they just dominated from start. It ended up costing me two games unless Tech pulls an Arkansas.

That one feels different than all the rest though. I think keeping it close and exciting for ratings and influenced by crowd is more likely explanation, but either way, that game feels off in a way that I’ve never felt after a statistically improbable beat.

For all of the UNC game, I was regretting not betting on the lucrative moneyline. Would've been another heartbreaker for me, as they shot off their lead late in the game, and lost 28-27. But my +13 covered very easily, and was a virtual lock once we got to the 4th.

San Jose State almost blew a huge lead in basketball, but they held on 75-72, and my +169 hit. My other bet on Colorado State was a disaster, but that 1-1 was profitable.

Overall I went 2-2 in NCAAB and lost a little due to the vig, 1-1 in NCAAB and won a little because of the dog line, and 1-2 on some smaller bets on Daly's props.

Whether I win or lose for the day will come down to Sacramento, which is trying to make its own comeback against the Nuggets, and the Calgary Flames, currently locked up in a 2-2 tie in Seattle.

Edit: Looks like I'm fucked no matter what with the Sac game, as they are 1 point up with 0.7 seconds left, which means I can't cover 2.5. Needed them to miss their second free throw to take it to OT. Sad!

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

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Originally Posted by BCR

I just watched what I missed. I never whine about rigged, but I’ve never seen anything like that between the fumble and the onside kick. Twitter is ablaze to say the least. What a beat.

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I will say that if the goal was to fuck Ark -2.5 people, they could've no-called that targeting thing in 2OT.

But maybe they were trying to rig it for Kansas to win outright.

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Meh. I dont think they refs were rigging it to help either team beat the spread. Even after the "fumble," there was still like 1% chance Kansas was going to cover/win. More likely it was a matter of: if given a choice that would end the game anticlimactically versus another choice that would extend it and make things more exciting, they consistently chose to extend the game.

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

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Originally Posted by BCR

I just watched what I missed. I never whine about rigged, but I’ve never seen anything like that between the fumble and the onside kick. Twitter is ablaze to say the least. What a beat.

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I will say that if the goal was to fuck Ark -2.5 people, they could've no-called that targeting thing in 2OT.

But maybe they were trying to rig it for Kansas to win outright.

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the targeting was on the 2pt conv so a no call still fucks ark -2.5


i had a monster parlay and foolishly had KU ML as the last leg instead of taking the +2.5 ( juice diff of +108 vs. -116) cost me a couple grand in equity by not taking the points sigh

Probably gonna sit out all the football today, both pro and college.

I do have some NCAAB picks:

Merrimack +2.5 -115 at Fairleigh Dickinson (+110 moneyline ok, +2 -110 ok)
Appalachian State +250 at Marshall - FIRST HALF ONLY - 0.5 UNIT PICK
Appalachian State +9.5 -103 at Marshall - FULL GAME - 0.5 UNIT PICK
Middle Tennessee +2 at Charlotte (+1.5 ok)

I know FSU is supposedly a top pass D school. I understand that sharp prop plays are almost always to the under.

That all said im trying to reconcile why the Gabriel line is stuck in the 225 range.

Every syndicate on over 65.5. Huge money on FSU drove line from 7 to 10. Gameflow suggests OU will be throwing early and in garbage time in 4q.

“Its an over” so im not going to mortgage the house, but give me the rare over 225

I think you are navigating the treacherous Bowling season successfully Daly. Nice hand


Are the Leafs gonna Leaf @ Phoenix Simpdog?
+1½ PL Phoenix or +254 if Vejmelka

LAK +128 over offensively struggling and banged up AV’s is a look.

Complete meltdown in all of my NCAAB games.

Brutal.

Merriman had a big 1H lead and now is getting blown out in the 2nd half.

App State had a lead with less than 2 minutes left in 1H, then fell apart, and predictably collapsed further in 2H.

Middle Tenn was basically behind Charlotte the entire game, and lost.

:gay

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Originally Posted by Sanlmar

I think you are navigating the treacherous Bowling season successfully Daly. Nice hand


Are the Leafs gonna Leaf @ Phoenix Simpdog?
+1½ PL Phoenix or +254 if Vejmelka

LAK +128 over offensively struggling and banged up AV’s is a look.

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Both dogs came thru. Made up for my loser props yesterday

So I really only liked Washington ML today. I liked Minnesota, but I’m not laying ten with team who scores 20 half the time. But didn’t want 10 as 27-3 entirely possible.

I wanted the Washington ML, but being the greedy degenerate I am I have to push it. I liked Florida State, I just didn’t like them at-10.

So I take it all the way down to -2.5 and parlay it for value. What can go wrong with -2.5?

So of course it’s tied at 32 and I have no solo bet on Washington ML and it’s ready to kick. I liked Texas Tech last night and skipped it because I was paralyzed by that Kansas-Ark nonsense.

I wasn’t going to do that again, so I threw down solo on Washington ML and hoped for the best with FSU. Thankfully they pulled it out by a FG and preserved the parlay.

2-0 at +197 parlay and +125 makes me feel better about yesterday.


Single @
+125
Won
Dec 29 • 2022
Ticket ID: 5347521
Moneyline: Washington
Texas vs Washington

Parlay (2 Picks)Won
Dec 29 • 2022
Ticket ID: 534672
Point Spread: Florida State -2.5 @ -315
Oklahoma vs Florida State
Moneyline: Washington @ +125
Texas vs Washington
Odds:
+197

Today is pretty much all opt out plays. My logic is Maryland is passing team, and 3 of 4 top receivers out. I also think their coach is horrible. NC State coach is an an average coach who looks like a used car salesmen or politician. He did win COTY this year in ACC, and I just figure average coach versus bad coach with no receivers, he’ll figure it out.

I’d love UCLA first half if not for the hook. It fucks all the 14-10 type games, but Pitt lost QB, lost top RB, and usually that equals slow start.

ND gets their starter who went 0 and 2 and lost to Marshall back. Also their best pass catcher at TE is out.

This game is iffy. Just betting on Rattler strong finish to season carrying over. Almost bet ML, but liked having the hook. I’m usually way right(see Stanford) or way wrong(see Syracuse) on ND.




Dec 30, 2022

Filter by time
Single @
-108
Open
Dec 30 • 2022
Ticket ID: 5348834180
Point Spread: South Carolina +3.5
Notre Dame vs South Carolina


Single @
-112
Open
Dec 30 • 2022
Ticket ID: 534882
Point Spread: NC State -1.0
Maryland vs NC State

Single @
-113
Open
Dec 30 • 2022
Ticket ID: 5348842
Spread - 1st Half: UCLA -4.5
Pittsburgh vs UCLA

There is a TON of money on both Michigan and Georgia. Like 80% plus.

Now they moving in reverse across some key numbers.

If Michigan -7 and Georgia -7 both hit vegas is going broke.

I put down on Ohio St +7 -120 and TCU +8

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Originally Posted by Daly

There is a TON of money on both Michigan and Georgia. Like 80% plus.

Now they moving in reverse across some key numbers.

If Michigan -7 and Georgia -7 both hit vegas is going broke.

I put down on Ohio St +7 -120 and TCU +8

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That Ohio State is truly baffling. Available 6.5 everywhere with 85% of the bets. I’ve watched every game and I can’t imagine how exactly Ohio State hangs with them. Yet I can’t imagine anything worse than having a lot on Georgia and Ohio State pulls some miracle that I can’t even enjoy. I have cash out option for like 5% loss. I have to think on this one as I know I’ll feel like an idiot when it’s 38-7 Georgia that I cancelled it, but I might opt out and bet some number where I can cheer for Buckeyes and make a few bucks if it goes as I think.

That will probably result in Ohio State losing by 4 just to make me miserable all around.

Georgia down to -5.5 -120 or -6 -110 at my book. I have no idea what’s going on with that game.

NHL

New Jersey -110 at Pittsburgh

More NHL:

Seattle -120 vs Edmonton


NBA

Golden State vs Portland - Over 233

Devils weren't looking good, first being 1-0 for a long time, then tying it, only to fall right back behind 2-1.

However, they just nailed 2 quick goals at the end of the 2nd, and now it's 3-2.

gogogo

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

Devils weren't looking good, first being 1-0 for a long time, then tying it, only to fall right back behind 2-1.

However, they just nailed 2 quick goals at the end of the 2nd, and now it's 3-2.

gogogo

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I’ve mentioned it before …though it might be a little too “inside baseball” - 2P’s are the new 1P’s.

Add to that the desperation that surrounds this game for the Devils. A “come to a Jesus” would ensue if they lost with just 2 goals, for instance.

Nice hit San.

Devils won 4-2, but the Kraken are down at home 4-0 to the Oilers. In the mid-1st.

Wow.