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Anyway, I feel like the regulars in this thread are like a little sportsbetting family, and it pains me to be directly against the Niners pick tonight that some of you are making.
Always much nicer to be on the same side, which we usually are, but I guess tonight is an exception. As a Seahawks bettor, I am a bit concerned how Seattle is going to score very much against a team which hasn't allowed more than 17 points since October 23, but I guess we shall see.
I’m on SF -3.5 and -6 +136. Bet before I read your post, so feeling less great about it given your NFL success.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Hit the Cavs +2 and -7 +255 last night. I know you dabble on my Cavs totals a bit. Dallas has slowest pace in the league so kind of an auto fire. Was busy so I didn’t post it here, but thought I’d leave this for future Cavs total decisions.
YTD
12-4 against the bottom 15 paced teams
109 ppg, 99.9 opponent ppg
6-7 against the top 14 paced teams
113 ppg, 112.4 opponent ppg
Already have Bills in a teaser and thinking about taking them -7 now. I think everyone was just betting it down because of the over 8/over 7 number. IF it goes to 6.5 I will be scared to death I am missing something very big. Miami has LIVED on the big play. Tua ADOT is astronomical, historic. If the weather doesn't magically change, that deep game is gone. Tua does not have a strong arm either to fight through the wind and cold, man it just really feels like Miami should struggle big time. It was 55 degrees last game and Tua had a sideline heater. He is a California kid then SEC kid who quite possibly has played in Cold weather like 3 times. Buffalo cold December weather? Probably never. He hasn't played in a game (outside that 55 degree one) that has been under 64 degrees all year. Not even in preseason.Quote:
Originally Posted by 4BETThe bills have had trouble covering which is why I took det on thanksgiving. Probably can tease down to 1 with someone and be good to go. With that said Miami was awful last game, real bad. I think Miami was overrated.Quote:
Originally Posted by NaturalBornHustler
I wouldn’t be afraid to bet bills -7 only because Miami looked so bad. Not supposed to put a ton of weight into last weeks results but Miami looked so bad I can’t overlook that.
Not sure if I am betting the bills this week. I was looking at Minnesota a team that has been overrated but are a decent team that had their ass kicked last week. I look for Minnesota to have a big game this week
Lamar Jackson officially ruled out Saturday. Huntley starting.
No hard feelings, After all it’s entertaining to bet sports and if we beat the book even better. Everyone has reasons they like one team over the other.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Did I mention your defense gave up over 700 rushing last 3 games? Never mind lol
Don’t know much about huntley but if I remember right he is pretty decent QB.Quote:
Originally Posted by NaturalBornHustler
I thought 49ers were going to roll Seahawks when I first saw this line Monday. I hate going against Druff just putting a sprinkle on this one.
NBA Clippers resting Kawhi , PG and others still like them +5.5 Suns in a bad rut right now and have guys out as well including Ayton.
Grizzlies -2.5 no Jrue Holiday and home court advantage lean
NBA
Memphis -3 vs Milwaukee
Middleton probably getting tossed for bitch trip move. Good for our betQuote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Yes this ones killing it.Quote:
Originally Posted by padre33Middleton probably getting tossed for bitch trip move. Good for our betQuote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Looks right I might have been wrong about the Seahawks though. Niners defense is killing them.
Good meeting you at Commerce, though you seem to have left minutes later!
I played another few hours. My brother said he saw you crushing some lady HU recently. I plaved 125 hrs in October and 77 in November at Commerce for that whopping 4$ an hour rake back. My gf just got hired there to take advantage of the 4k bonus for poker dealers so probably be playing a lot more up there the next 4 months.. May gonna take a vacation somewhere before we spend 2 months in Vegas June and July.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan DruffYes this ones killing it.Quote:
Originally Posted by padre33
Looks right I might have been wrong about the Seahawks though. Niners defense is killing them.
Good meeting you at Commerce, though you seem to have left minutes later!
You went to 100-200 not long after we talked and looked like you chipped up quick. Do you know MAry that plays the 1-2?Asian lady super nice Hmong to be exact. She lives in Vegas and been playing mid limit and hi limit for many years.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan DruffYes this ones killing it.Quote:
Originally Posted by padre33
Looks right I might have been wrong about the Seahawks though. Niners defense is killing them.
Good meeting you at Commerce, though you seem to have left minutes later!
He is an average backup and not much more.Quote:
Originally Posted by 4BETDon’t know much about huntley but if I remember right he is pretty decent QB.Quote:
Originally Posted by NaturalBornHustler
49ers defense is so fucking fast Seattle can't handle them.
What a horrible call on Bosa. That was game over go to sleep early.
Lol have to fade the refs now, Call back pick 6 on BS Call. Still won’t be enough for Seattle
Never has 15 points looked down insurmountable.
I think I deserve bonus points on my Memphis NBA pick though.
Great start to the week!
Good game, guys. Actually had a chance to tie before that 55 yard drive iced the game.
Guess you were all right to go against me here.
I broke even today anyway because my Memphis NBA pick won by like 40.
Funny you put it was right to go against you, I put out SF and you attacked the pick. Know one thing when I put Big bet next to pick it’s because I have seen both teams plenty, I know who the best teams is, I know the injury’s, I know who the “ Sharps” have (Seattle) and I have at least one mid 4 figure bet.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
BCR should have learned that last week and you this week
Does this guarantee a win? No of course not but I like my chances.
Maybe go back and see my win% in this thread when I put “big bet”
So notice the difference when I put what I am betting, Most times I put what I am betting
don’t have a great read on the game and state as much, small bet or coin flip etc.
BTW this game was much closer then it should have been, SF is 3 touchdowns better then the bums Seattle
You picking Seattle here shows me you don’t know football that well and you have been running on the good side of EV for example under 40.5 tie game 20-20 and you win lol.
Lesson here respect 4bet BIg bet or pay the price
Best of luck to all, Even the haters
Some comments to 4BET:
Of course it wasn't a lock, that's why they call it gambling.
I have bet 65 times on the NFL this season. I won 45, lost 19, and tied 1. This includes some semi-big moneyline dogs, and zero moneyline favorites.
It is not fair to say I'm just running well. Yes, running well is a big part of it, as no NFL handicapper has ever won at this clip (70.3%) long term, and I won't either. However, note that in my first 33 picks, every result but one was either a win, a loss of 0.5-1 point, or a game where I was ahead at some point in the 4th. So out of my first 33 picks, 32 of them either won or were very close. Seriously, go look it up.
I did run well with that "under 40.5" pick you mentioned. I did NOT run well with that awful Tampa game where I was ahead 16-3 with minutes left on a +165 pick, and lost it.
You won your big bet, and that's great. I have lost 19 times out of 65. This was one of them. That's all there is to say. I'll be thrilled to have future NFL seasons which are even half as good as this one.