Today
Lester U 6.5
Wisler U 5.5 -150
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Today
Lester U 6.5
Wisler U 5.5 -150
No picks from me today. Couldn't find anything I liked.
Bovada has Wisler at U5 -115 and Lester at U6.5 -125
I'll take them both.
:entertainedQuote:
Originally Posted by Daly
Are
You
Not
Chapman hits 105 on the radar to tie his record. Better have him piss in the cup soon here.
Arod hits 696. He's going to hit 700 no denying it, but at least he's not going to pass Ruth at 714 so he's locked out of the top 3.
Chapman throws gas. Beyond dispute.Quote:
Originally Posted by simpdog
I have always dismissed stadium radar guns. I have always taken Chapman's numbers with a grain of salt. Radar was useful for relative speeds. That was my attitude. Difference between kids and a fastball and a change. That kind of thing.
Nobody ever calibrated the things and you didn't know how well they were positioned.
I have seen some stupid shit that even the pitcher himself would dismiss. Minor league stadiums have little incentive to be accurate, for instance. Bad numbers sell hot dogs.
Scouts show up with calibrated guns and position themselves accurately. Big money and their jobs are at stake. Always respected those numbers. No scout wants to say a kid throws 97 and later never be able to have that number duplicated. Scout looks like an idiot.
So for the first time I am actually wondering if these numbers ARE accurate. MLB now uses Trackman to display batted ball exit velocity and player movement. This really is a whole new world of data. Are these numbers actually right?
I can't find any good stuff on the subject of stadium radar gun accuracy with a quick search. Some kind of writers editorial.
Daly, yeah man I AM entertained. I am most entertained by the back stories and discussion. More than most, you post a thought or an attitude with your picks. I have learned a few things along the way.
In probably the lest surprising post I've ever made considering the run we are on.... Another book shut me down last night.
If anyone has access to sports books local/online/otherwise and wants to go 50/50 on an account let me know. If it's a online must pay in advance type book I'll ship/escrow ahead of time so long as you have had an account here for more than 15 minutes. I can't guarantee we will win, but i'll let me record speak for it's self.
Texas (Lohse) at Angels (Linecum) - Over 10 -115
Baltimore (Worley) at Yankees (Eovaldi) - Over 9 -110
Atlanta (Jenkins) +148 at Cincinnati (Reed)
another ACR micro freeroll winnings parlay
MLB[955] LA DODGERS
Action +108
MLB[958] CIN REDS
Action -140
MLB[976] BOS RED SOX
Action -156
MLB[977] TB RAYS v COL ROCKIES
T CHATWOOD -R/B SNELL -L o11½ -110
otherwise busto, thank god for ACR deposit bonus SNG tickets.
Ideally, which online book would you want to be on if you had to pick one?Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
I am not interested in your terms but a close brush with greatness.
I am surprised you can't solve this problem with your own runner. Family, friend, etc.
I actually have a potential runner in Vegas, my daughter the Zappos kid. This could be kind of funny. A small runner fee.
What's funny about her is she hates sports cause of me and her brother. Sports and especially baseball dominated family life. She hates Vegas and just dumped her live in boyfriend who quit his band to grind poker. She just wants to move back to Boston but I won't let her quit her plush Zappos gig.
Her reading my disturbing posts could be the incentive to keep things honest. I am jacked outta my mind on caffeine right now so bear with me.
How can you, Daly, lock out the person who creates the account. Changing passwords is not enough. They can be recovered.
You could deposit withdraw with Bitcoin. Feels smooth.
The best book to use is one that's already been opened and used for a while. You open up a brand new account and start to hammer props it doesn't tend to last as long as when the accounts been active for a while. I think the sites track long term profitably to query what accounts to cut first.
But that's aside sportsbook.ag is the king of exploitable props. I'd say Bovada is next.
The other pain (being up front) is the online books track log ins. The minute I logged into your account and tried to make a bet they would fold up the account and potentially accuse you of cheating.... And you sort of would be.
I do have 1-2 freind runners but ideally I don't like friends getting involved with my secret life unless they are flagged as a fellow degen.
I wish Vegas offered many of the props I bet. I've heard a few of the books are offering strikeout props now.... I should look into that.
I got a sportsbook.ag account. Little used. Probably only deposited with Bitcoin so no CC info.Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
So you're saying they track log in location? Really?
Hasn't sportsbook.ag had payment problems?Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
I've been using Bovada to bet on your strikeout lines, and they are usually fairly comparable to what you post. And they pay out.
If your daughter lived in NY I'd take her for a drink!Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarIdeally, which online book would you want to be on if you had to pick one?Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
I am not interested in your terms but a close brush with greatness.
I am surprised you can't solve this problem with your own runner. Family, friend, etc.
I actually have a potential runner in Vegas, my daughter the Zappos kid. This could be kind of funny. A small runner fee.
What's funny about her is she hates sports cause of me and her brother. Sports and especially baseball dominated family life. She hates Vegas and just dumped her live in boyfriend who quit his band to grind poker. She just wants to move back to Boston but I won't let her quit her plush Zappos gig.
Her reading my disturbing posts could be the incentive to keep things honest. I am jacked outta my mind on caffeine right now so bear with me.
How can you, Daly, lock out the person who creates the account. Changing passwords is not enough. They can be recovered.
You could deposit withdraw with Bitcoin. Feels smooth.
Orioles bats went to sleep. Lost yet another over by 1. I've had some pretty bad luck with those since the All-Star breaking, going 0-3.
Looked like I had some bad luck with the Braves, too, which was the more important bet at +148. It was up 4-2 in the 9th, shitty Jim Johnson gave up 2 in the 9th (because Vizcaino, the much better closer, is on the DL).
11th inning the Braves put up one.
Now the Reds have a man on 1st with 1 out. Tense moment here which will make or break my baseball day.
guy is a millionaire but sweating his balls off over $500 bets
These 500s add up quickly if you go on a bad or good run.
Anyway, I went 2-1 yesterday, including a +148 win.
Won a close one with the Braves in 11 innings, lost a close one with Baltimore/Yankees (scored 8, had over 9), and easily won the Texas/Angels over (I think it went over in the 6th).
Overall I've done very well with my underdog bets recently, winning all but 1.
My posted picks are 5-4 since the All Star break, which isn't as good as my 8-0-1 run of posted picks prior to the break. However, of those 5 recent wins, three were nice underdogs, so that actually makes it better than it appears.
Combine that with Daly's strikeout bets I've followed, and I've done well in baseball in July.
Open letter to Daly.
I'm gonna take the liberty of posting my response. A little content for your thread.
If you want to take over my account and do some damage I would enjoy that.
If you want to go 50/50, I am going to pass.
There is a little irony with my avatar being a tout. I have learned a lot of things about my tilt control over the years. First being, I need to think for myself. If I make what I feel is a sound bet in the markets or sports and lose then I can look back and say it was a solid play - I can take the loss and move on. The dollar amount isn't the issue. Just being wrong for the wrong reasons tilts me out.
If I am flipping or doing something I don't understand the reasoning behind - well self loathing and anger result and my head ain't right for a while.
I don't follow any stock forums, for instance. I mute CNBC. I actually make very few decisions except autobet kind of daytrades. I think for myself and do ok.
The props phenomenon is amazing and I enjoy following. I know someone is doing solid work. Work I can't do cause I don't know how or don't have the energy to invest.
I am a big Daly fan. I actually owe you a lot. A few of your thought processes have helped me. That you take the time to respond and post your thinking is important. I also just love the degen tale.
You can take over my account. I am manic about my privacy. No Facebook, Twitter, PayPal ... on and on. My address and the like are there. (I am kinda curious why I am compelled to do this). That's prolly your best guarantee in this partnership. Do the Bitcoin thing. I sure as shit wouldn't give CC info to any of these clowns.
Do some damage or get it shut down. Hit and run. Hopefully, you share your exploits.
I'll give you the password and you can troll around. I would prefer you do everything yourself but if you are convinced that they track IP login info then I am available.
^^^ - You probably should have pm'ed Daly if you are going to say "Hey man, I'll let you have my password to bet under my account".
Probably safe to post that since nobody knows who Sanlmar is in real life.Quote:
Originally Posted by BeerAndPoker
True but if they have the real info on Daly and somehow come across PFA (due to his picks?) they might cross the t's.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan DruffProbably safe to post that since nobody knows who Sanlmar is in real life.Quote:
Originally Posted by BeerAndPoker
Baseball today
Phillies (Hellickson) +123 vs Marlins (Chen)
Toronto (Stroman) at Arizona (Corbin) - Over 9 +100
Note that the public hates my Tor/Ari bet (though I made it anyway), and I'm also just 1-3 on Over/Unders since the All-Star break (and 4-1 on sides, with three of those wins being dogs).
I could give you a book Daly if you want, no strike out props on there though.
Exactly.Quote:
Originally Posted by simpdogTrue but if they have the real info on Daly and somehow come across PFA (due to his picks?) they might cross the t's.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
What I got out of it is Daly will send the person money to place half the max bet action (assuming it's an amount he's willing to cover) and the person can bet the other half for themselves with the picks Daly gives them.
Even if the people Daly works with he feels would be reputable their are things that can go wrong to change that relationship on both ends from the person not playing the picks, lying about how much action they can get if Daly crushes, getting pissed if Daly goes on a cold streak, dealing with methods of transferring money, disagreements with fees on cashouts etc...
I'm a bit surprised Druff don't mind account sharing discussion on Poker Fraud Alert when it is against the terms of service of the sportsbook.
I understand it's not two people sharing a poker account (even though it could happen since poker is on most of these books).
Jesus, BNP. Terms of Service? Really? If you think PFA is some bastion of morality you aren't logging in often enough.
This isn't a seminary. Information about people's actions and the actions of businesses, poker and otherwise, is being shared. Information is the best guardian against fraud. Caveat Emptor.
Nobody is playing poker. The mere thought exhausts me.
Daly wants an outlet to bet. I am giving him one.
The market is offering a line and he is accepting their offer. The offer is freely given. There is no duress. There is no fraud. Wether they offer a line to me or him is immaterial.
There is no financial partnership. The partnership is my privacy vs his bankroll. He can fund this how he chooses - rip bad lines to shreds and move on.
I don't use the book. There is some little action and it is a mature account. I got my favorites. He and I value different aspects of sports books I guess. If he kills the account I don't care.
I offered a little fun for the thread. I took some liberties. This will be my last post on this subject ever.. That is my word.
I hand this off to Daly.
I don't care about people using this site to discuss ways around certain TOS violations.Quote:
Originally Posted by BeerAndPoker
I wouldn't want a discussion about how to successfully multiaccount in poker, because that would involve cheating innocent players.
However, I think it's bullshit how some sportsbooks are only willing to provide their bets to proven losers, even though everyone pays juice. I understand that these are businesses and they have the right to refuse service to anyone, but I find the practice to be sleazy. Part of running a sportsbook should be the risk of facing people with high skill levels, knowing that almost all sportsbettors are clueless and have no chance of beating the juice long term. The tiny percentage of people who can beat them should just be considered the cost of doing business.
So these books have a right to do it, but I don't mind smart gamblers finding a way to still bet with them.
I feel like this thread has taken an unexpected turn.
I'm at work, I'll try and post later.
In short I'm not looking to get involved with some sort of major consortium here. I'm looking to put down a few bets and take a few people with me along for the ride, for better or worse.
What you're looking to do is 100% fine in my book.Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
I hope someone in the community steps up and supports your efforts (I can't help, or I would), given all of the great prop bets you've shared with this forum.
In specific response to this, I thank you but In all likelihood I'll have to pass.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
1. Because I like these relationships where we both make money. If I'm the only one who profits it makes me hard to trust a relative stranger. It's the old Hyman Roth theory from the Godfather.
2. (And more importantly) There is simply no good way for me to fund an account at one of the online books without having my fingerprints on it and being visible to them. It puts us both at risk and I wouldn't do it to either one of us.
as my book doesn't offer most of what Daly is offering if would have to be for next year, but I would be willing to open an account at Bovada, put my own money up, take Daly's advice, and give him a cut of the profits. (like a hedge fund 20%). we would have strict bet limits and types but more of an advisory type arrangement. pay out at end of season or at all star break and end of season I think. ill think about the details and PM. if anyone has thoughts please advise.
If you or anyone else wants to open up a Bovada account lets talk. PM me.Quote:
Originally Posted by Charham
But wouldn't it be safer for both parties to work this out where the original account holder places the bets as Daly requested? Not saying the site would go so far but they could do an IP lookup if they pinpoint a Daly account to this new one seeing both crushed prop bets?Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
I hate the cherry picking the sites do of who can place certain bets and them cutting people off just as everyone should. It's a racket but part of the sportsbetting business that goes on everywhere. Some places will let it go on much longer then others before cutting someone down to a small amount or completely out.
Let me just be perfectly clear I'm not against the activity here all I'm saying is trend carefully.
like Druff I am taking the toronto game over. Also taking toronto RL, Houston RL and game over, Miami Rl and game over and LAA Rl. GL boys. Sad I haven't been able to take advantage of the pitcher prop bets Daly has been posting.
We've got at least a tie on the over in the 8th.
Now we just need Encarnacion to drive in Barney for 3rd and it's over for the Toronto game.
Edit: Encarnacion CRUSHED it for a 2-run HR.
Got it.
Now I just need the Phillies to win later.
Marlins just got steamed Druff. You should of waitedQuote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Sawks Giants 4th inning
Is live betting over 22 the play here?
Wouldn't be the under.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Actualy I wouldn't bet the over either. Put it on the over tomorrow.... Like we all should be doing all summer long.
Daly, I have my month old acct at sportsbetting.ag, and I also have a virgin Bodog/bovada acct. Not sure what kind of arrangement you're looking for, whether it's just access to a fresh acct or if you're seeking partial investment... or both. You know I'm busto, but depending on what you're seeking, I might be of some help.