Anyone have a long term oil play here?
I see a bottom coming in early January.
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Anyone have a long term oil play here?
I see a bottom coming in early January.
pure oil play or just energy sector?
I'm open. Oil seems to be on sale so that would be my lean.Quote:
Originally Posted by Krypt
Not KMI for sure. Fuck they just slashed divi by 75%. Fuck. Glad I don't own it but I'm a big owner of MLPL so there will be more PAIN in my near future. If this thing hits $5 a share open your window and you'll hear the gunshot.
Honestly you could do a lot worse than ETE.
I'm interested.Quote:
Originally Posted by Pooh
Looking for other energy stocks that have been destroyed this year.... Down 70-80%
You probably have several hundred to choose from. Stay the hell away from E&P companies unless you think oil is going to $60 soon. These are LINE, BBEP, VNR, MEMP, ARP and many many others. ETE is rock solid. Paying over 8% and expecting to increase by 20% next two years due to projects coming on line. It's no Kinder Morgan, much less and more manageable debt. Be careful with refiners at this point. Once oil starts going up these will suffer although they've had a nice ride this year.Quote:
Originally Posted by DalyI'm interested.Quote:
Originally Posted by Pooh
Looking for other energy stocks that have been destroyed this year.... Down 70-80%
Or you can go my way and buy MLPL. This is yielding over 30% currently and its only invested in the midstream companies which are supposed to be safe but have been crushed lately. Just know if this thing hits $5 its automatically closed. Started the year over $60 so its down A LOT.
Here's a link to MLPL. I've gotten absolutely killed in the market this year....you'll be getting in a lot better than I did.
http://etracs.ubs.com/product/detail.../ussymbol/MLPL
And its down 40% in a month.
Full disclosure I own 5500 shares at $34. Trying to build up to 20k if it stays above $5.
This will either be my retirement stock or it will make me work an extra five years.
Ouch. Tough one Pooh.
This does seem interesting.
My line of thinking is to see what comes out of the year end tax selling season. Going to be a lot of people looking to "cash in" on losses this year who have big losses in energy. If I'm right I think we will see a reversal in energy prices in the 1Q.
No doubt. Feel free to jump in last week Dec. First week Jan. Keep in mind MLPL goes ex div around 7-9th of Jan. Divi announcement will precede that by two or three days. Prob should expect around $1.10 a share for Jan dividend.Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
I figure if its still standing by Jan we should be in the clear with this one for awhile although KMI slashing the dividend worries me even though its no longer in this index.
Buying in for $17 and getting a $1 rebate sounds interesting.Quote:
Originally Posted by PoohNo doubt. Feel free to jump in last week Dec. First week Jan. Keep in mind MLPL goes ex div around 7-9th of Jan. Divi announcement will precede that by two or three days. Prob should expect around $1.10 a share for Jan dividend.Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
I figure if its still standing by Jan we should be in the clear with this one for awhile although KMI slashing the dividend worries me even though its no longer in this index.
heads up...some of those midstream companies are gonna get crushed by class action lawsuits in the near future (already started in PA and WV is about to blow up...there are some huge cases just waiting for certification). for example, a good amount of the EQT midstream companies' income comes from artificial "gathering" costs taken improperly from lessors' royalties.Quote:
Originally Posted by PoohYou probably have several hundred to choose from. Stay the hell away from E&P companies unless you think oil is going to $60 soon. These are LINE, BBEP, VNR, MEMP, ARP and many many others. ETE is rock solid. Paying over 8% and expecting to increase by 20% next two years due to projects coming on line. It's no Kinder Morgan, much less and more manageable debt. Be careful with refiners at this point. Once oil starts going up these will suffer although they've had a nice ride this year.Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
Or you can go my way and buy MLPL. This is yielding over 30% currently and its only invested in the midstream companies which are supposed to be safe but have been crushed lately. Just know if this thing hits $5 its automatically closed. Started the year over $60 so its down A LOT.
Here's a link to MLPL. I've gotten absolutely killed in the market this year....you'll be getting in a lot better than I did.
http://etracs.ubs.com/product/detail.../ussymbol/MLPL
A dumbass like Pooh has no concept of credit markets and simply can't comprehend the implications of widening credit spreads with regards to these Junk High yield energy companies
Krypt,
You ever fantasize about walking into Cheniere's (LNG) corporate office handcuffed to a propane tank holding a lighter.
-25% in a month. A "fundamental" mistake.
Investing is for your mom.
Act your age and learn to day trade.
Remember guys, it could always be a lot worse.
Pull up a 18 month chart of UWTI.
I have to think if you dumped it all into Freeport over the next 6 months you would be a happy fellow in 5-10 years.
krapt retired from here.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
I see your wheels turning. Yeah, it's like commodities porn.Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
Did you read this?
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/whi...dist=bigcharts
I read the technical analysis and the price followed the Fib's in amazing fashion. I skipped the fundamental analysis discussion, of course.
Chart referenced in article:
Next Fib is $33. Like it but don't guess bottom. Let someone else point the direction.
What was the Krypt story? Point me there.
So since Poker has pretty much died off except for the occasional trip to the casino card room I need a new fix.
I started trading naked Calls, obviously I need some help here.
Let's say somebody had $50,000 they wanted high risk, high return type investments. Has a good amount of time to invest and learn, and has pretty much unlimited free time during trading hours if strategy required it.
What should I be reading or what do you all suggest?
BTW, bought 5000 Mar '16 Contracts @ .01 on Ford @ 17.00 a share.
My logic:
Auto Industry has been undervalued for awhile.
Hedge Funds have all taken long positions in auto in the last 3-6 months.
Ford has two major announcements in the month of January (Google/Ford CES Announcement and Earnings at the End of January)
Hoping for price bump in January based on these two events and obviously get out hopefully in the .10-.20 range on the contracts. Maybe start dumping some if it gets to .05?
See I obviously need help, help me PFA Trading Gods.
If buy trading naked calls you mean buying then its a guaranteed lose. You have the house and you have the bettor. The house is the seller and the house always wins. Like 90% out of the money puts expire worthless so you should be selling puts. Naked calls are extremely risky and you're unlikely to be granted permission to write them from the broker given your experience level. I'd sell out of the money puts if I were you. Especially if you actually want to own the security you're writing them on.
Take this $2.50 put for NMM. If you wouldn't mind owning this pig then sell puts. If the price is below $2.50 on March 18 you own it for $2.50 less the $.35 you get for selling the put. If its over $2.50 then you keep the $.35 and own no stock. Only way this stock is below that price is if they cut their distribution again which is unlikely but not impossible and March isn't far away so it's very unlikely in that time frame.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/op?s=NMM&date=1458259200
I see autos and my thoughts run to the sub-prime auto loan situation. They are desperate to move vehicles - artificially. There will be payback on the financing side and an oversold condition that will catch up with manufacturers later. Just a spectator.Quote:
Originally Posted by abrown83
Starting out trading is tough enough without the added complexity of options, imo.
Learning a trading style that works for you is just like poker. There are many ways to win. I personally don't try to out think the other guys on the fundamental side. Yeah, autos may be undervalued. They can stay undervalued (wrong) for a long time too. Knowing what the other guys are thinking right now about fundamentals is valuable. Just recognize that the market wants to take your money. Rinse you out of a trade, etc. You have an opponent.
Lots of second and third level thinking. Good times.
You talk about high risk / high reward. You know what sucks at poker and stocks? Losing. Losing blows. Booking a small win - especially starting out feels good.
I trade intraday. I got the time. It's a job. But every morning feels like game day.
Maybe you want to swing trade or God forbid, invest. You decide.
I am a chart guy. It works for me. As such, I would recommend reading a bit about Candlestick charting. Nison is the guy but there are others. You read poker books.... it's the same investment.
Candlestick charting can help identify entry points, sell near resistance or buy near support. Once you have an idea like autos, you still need to determine an entry price. Resistance and support levels, trading ranges and all that stuff.
It's interesting stuff on its own. Should amuse you at the very least.
I feel like recommending you lurk a real time trading forum just to see how others trade. I did this a decade ago and it helped me a great deal. Vad Graifer was my guy. I don't know what's out there now. Again, you got to match a forum to what you guess your style might be.
Just riffing.
Thanks for thoughts
My actual investments are managed by my father a 20 year manager of multiple five star Morning Star mutual funds. He just doesn't like speculative trading causes he thinks it is too high risk.
He basically has me invested in a strategy where he picks the best company in each industry and we reevaluate quarterly. I will say in 14 years of me saving money he has never once underperformed the S&P 500 which to me is total bananas but also probably why he managed 50+ Billion.
Pooh you have a good point about risk and selling Puts. I will for sure think about that in the future.
I think anything where I could get in and out multiple times in a day as a way to kill time would be interesting. But as I understand it day trading is pretty dead with super computing.
Oil around $34 and I love that fib level at $33. I posted a chart back there. I am definitely gonna wade in with a small start if we hit that.Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
Unlike my usual style, I will take a longer term approach.
Edit: Such a smooth decline in the market. I can't remember who my VIX boy is here. Vix is only 20. Not a rush to SP500 options. Nobody having a real problem with this decline.
Feels like we are going to have more of the same until VIX jams. People aren't panicking. Hmmm.
The market always finds/makes a great story to control emotions. I can't wait to hear what boogy monster they invent. This is fantastic. So smooth.
Took a thousand share UWTI @ $2.85
It's the 3x crude play
Whose with me?
I got out of oil with my tail between my legs a while back.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Don't tempt me.
There is so much to talk about.
We been talking about Yahoo & Alibaba. Obv two big China exposures. Yahoo got walloped.
Does this chart remind you of something? Bitcoin maybe?
Shanghai composite
Chart shows a head and shoulders after a parabolic move. Supposed to head back to 2000 level.
Until we become decoupled from China - i.e. We just get tired of the China story... we are in for some good times.
The casino stocks .... Wynn getting crushed.
The good news is the minimum wage is now $10 in Massachusetts so it's no lose for me.
Bubbles everywhere. That's the PFA theme.
UWTI $2.31 Oil about to drill $31 again. I bought UWTI when oil was around $33.Quote:
Originally Posted by simpdogI got out of oil with my tail between my legs a while back.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Don't tempt me.
You can't fight deflation. The Fed move made no sense - but they are out of bullets. Don't matter.
Gonna hang onto this just for kicks. Fighting the urge to Martingale.
Canadian dollar is 70 cents. Shit is getting real.
Real estate shorts look sooo tempting. Again the deflation thing. Timing feels perfect. Haven't ever followed this niche.
I got hurt by the bounce off lows today. Tough day.
RBS (Royal Bank of Scotland) sends out memo to sell everything.
http://www.theguardian.com/business/...rbs-economists
Quote:
Sell everything except high quality bonds. This is about return of capital, not return on capital. In a crowded hall, exit doors are small.” It said the current situation was reminiscent of 2008, when the collapse of the Lehman Brothers investment bank led to the global financial crisis. This time China could be the crisis point.
This is insane.
Straight down from open. No gap down.. You could get in early.
Almost 2000 points lost in 2 months DJIA. Oil about to print 29.xx
Edit: Just lost SP500 1900. Pooh
I wish I could find the CNBC talking heads from a month or two ago saying hold. Don't panic.
I am looking to buy now ..... Close
Edit:
Bought pretty big - gambol.
Apple Inc.160115C00098570-AAPL-CALL $98.57 expires this Friday
Call .96
Edit: AAPL $98.00 Call .75 Gonna buy more at close as we tank into close
Well, I am a member of the bloody anus club. Messed with the bear and got mauled. Calls last sale lol .64
Thought I saw something that wasn't there. Lost everything I nicked & scalped today and a ton more.
GoPro shares halted. Missed all their numbers. Closed $14 and will open $7 tomorrow
:lol2Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Fuck it right? Who gives a fuck at this point.
I'm a huge holder of NRZ, MORL, MLPL and NMM. One I have 5500 shares NRZ the other three I have over 7500 shares each. Now that's a fucking mauling.
Just sold everything @ 1.39 Miraculous comeback.Quote:
Originally Posted by Pooh:lol2Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Fuck it right? Who gives a fuck at this point.
I'm a huge holder of NRZ, MORL, MLPL and NMM. One I have 5500 shares NRZ the other three I have over 7500 shares each. Now that's a fucking mauling.
Traded as low as .25 this morning. I haven't eaten since yesterday, I felt so sick.
My avg cost $0.855
One day profit 62.5% Smashed it.
I have no clue what the close will bring. $100 is a problem methinks.
I commence drinking now.
What a sweat this am for you. Did you start working on your resume to work at a pizza joint on the East coast?Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarJust sold everything @ 1.39 Miraculous comeback.Quote:
Originally Posted by Pooh
Traded as low as .25 this morning. I haven't eaten since yesterday, I felt so sick.
My avg cost $0.855
One day profit 62.5% Smashed it.
I have no clue what the close will bring. $100 is a problem methinks.
I commence drinking now.
Well, try to get some overtime tomorrow boys to make up for your cratering 401k.
Oil is $29.60 tonight.
Dow futures down 172
China is tanking again.
The casino never closes. 4am EST. exhausted.
Edit:
Dow down 172---> 243
Nasdaq down 70
Just keep nibbling. It's too easy.
Flash crash. Gonna rip your face off in am. Epic
For those looking to sell puts to get synthetically long and take a long position if you get exercised on your short option, days like today are when you should be doing it...The panic put premium will give you a nice bang for your buck...
It's just a fucking massacre today.
I cleaned up my full mailbox. Sorry guys.
Finally figured it out, you are Knish.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar