*** OFFICIAL *** MLB 2024 Thread

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Originally Posted by Sanlmar

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

San, what say you on the Rockies game tonight?

I know you were focusing on knuckleballer Waldron. It's true. Knuckleballs don't knuckle well in Denver.

Unfortunately, Cal Quantrill, who has actually been decent in Denver the last few months, has "general foream soreness", and had to miss his last start. Today he is supposedly "okay", but obviously there's some concern.

I want to back the Rockies here but I also don't.

As usual, the Rockies continue to be one of the best home value betting teams in MLB, as they're 27-32 and a decent sized dog most of the time (including tonight). It's the road where they're absolutely dreadful, at 17-46.

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If Waldron’s knuckler doesn’t play his fastball has been dreadful. He’s gotta be throwing up in some bathroom stall right now

I bet both teams to score (BTTS) F5 2+ -115 & BTTS F5 3+ +205 earlier today. Little ladder

I know that doesn’t help you but both teams gonna get some. Gotta do it

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San, Ima guess you didn’t settle and are gambling Padres can beat both teams to the finish line. Good write up on the game tonight. Going to tail some of this. Also like your Dodgers fading Mikolakis. No clear cut favorite this year. All the teams at the top have shown to have weaknesses lately.

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Originally Posted by Sanlmar

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

San, what say you on the Rockies game tonight?

I know you were focusing on knuckleballer Waldron. It's true. Knuckleballs don't knuckle well in Denver.

Unfortunately, Cal Quantrill, who has actually been decent in Denver the last few months, has "general foream soreness", and had to miss his last start. Today he is supposedly "okay", but obviously there's some concern.

I want to back the Rockies here but I also don't.

As usual, the Rockies continue to be one of the best home value betting teams in MLB, as they're 27-32 and a decent sized dog most of the time (including tonight). It's the road where they're absolutely dreadful, at 17-46.

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If Waldron’s knuckler doesn’t play his fastball has been dreadful. He’s gotta be throwing up in some bathroom stall right now

I bet both teams to score (BTTS) F5 2+ -115 & BTTS F5 3+ +205 earlier today. Little ladder

I know that doesn’t help you but both teams gonna get some. Gotta do it

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Interesting bet. Especially BTTS F5 3+ (both teams to score at least 3 runs in first 5 innings, for those who don't know the terminology).

Very aggressive!

Definitely a reasonable line to take though. The main risk comes from one team jumping out to a giant lead, and the other kinda just going through the motions when the game seems out of reach. But then again, in Denver, the game is never out of reach.

Decided to go with a triple.

Waldron, please get bombed.

Colorado (Quantrill) +144 vs San Diego (Waldron)
Matt Waldron under 16.5 outs recorded -130
Colorado/SD Over 6 First 5 innings -110

6-2 after 3, Rockies up

Very nice so far!

Now they just need to pull Waldron before 5 2/3 hits, and I'll have 2 of 3 locked up.

Thanks for bringing Waldron to my attention, San. I knew he was a knuckleballer but for some reason it didn't "click" about Denver until you reminded me the other day.

Wow, SD just plated a 3rd run in the 4th. Great bets there San.

I almost tailed you on those.

Anyway, now I can root for SD to stop scoring in peace. The only upside to them scoring is it might chase Waldron out early if they think they have a chance to win.

Geez, take Waldron out

5 IP, getting close to 100 pitches, gives up a double to Toglia

Give me my fucking win on this


Edit: Nope. Two quick outs, and Waldron has somehow made it through 5 2/3. Guess I'll need the Rockies to win to have a winner here.

Edit 2: Waldron taken out after 5 2/3! Sad! I knew all I needed was Toglia to come home and it would be over for Waldron. Bad beat.

Glasnow IR w forearm

Miller tomorrow.

I have FD listing TBD

I have DK painting Glasnow. Wrong imo. I’m all over STL F5 TT 1.5 -125. F3 BTTS 1+ +180 & F5 BTTS 2+ +200. Express your own individuality.

San, we were almost collectively perfect.

Waldron gets pulled 1 batter earlier, we go 5-0.

I haven't been betting Rockies at home enough.

Glasnow has been hittable since late June.

Now he's up to 134 innings (career high), and he has the tendinitis. Uh oh.

That's the knock against the guy. No durability. Huge talent, no durability.

Maybe load management is the answer in the future?

The problem is that the Dodgers can't just coast this year, because the Padres and D-backs are on their tail.

https://x.com/BNightengale/status/1824642108827009149

DK still has Glasnow -170

Pinny is locked and BOL is holding the game.

There is now way DK doesn’t honor my action. I am not listed pitchers and they have had it up over an hour.

Hey, maybe Bobby Miller throws a no hitter and I need a reload bonus code. lol. Gotta be aggressive in these spots.


I literally just said a day or two ago (in my usually snarky fashion) that the pitcher fail rehab and injuries were no shock. The only surprise was Glasnow still active.

Dodgers story this year may be the wildest yet. They still won. Cash the -135 from last night. Wrob was just good enough but worse than I thought he’d be.

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

https://x.com/BNightengale/status/1824642108827009149

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Your boy Dave and the Dodgers are guilty of leaning too hard on the bullpen. No length is asked of starters. Now Dave can only work with what he’s got but a win today might have a cost down the road.

Additionally, Dave falls in love with a reliever and rides him like a rented mule. Everyone knows this. Kopech was in his first closer situation for the Dodgers and he was pressing. I saw 102. He will prolly blow his transmission and sprinkle parts all over the 405.

Kopech TJ announcement any day now.

Pray for Kopech.

Miller isn't ready. He's pitched poorly at AAA. Pallante allows a lot of baserunners his entire (short) career.

I did over 5 first 5 today.

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

Miller isn't ready. He's pitched poorly at AAA. Pallante allows a lot of baserunners his entire (short) career.

I did over 5 first 5 today.

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I want to take this opportunity to give you the praise you deserve.

I imagine these are difficult times for you. You have stood strong and profited these past few days. You have seen the board clearly regardless of personal hardship.

Continued good fortune, sir

:uhhuh

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Originally Posted by Sanlmar

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

Miller isn't ready. He's pitched poorly at AAA. Pallante allows a lot of baserunners his entire (short) career.

I did over 5 first 5 today.

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I want to take this opportunity to give you the praise you deserve.

I imagine these are difficult times for you. You have stood strong and profited these past few days. You have seen the board clearly regardless of personal hardship.

Continued good fortune, sir

:uhhuh

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Bobby Miller might be a long covid symptom

Hey Druff

MLB rumors: Zack Greinke looking for big league opportunity in 2024 after hitting free agency.

We both know he was better than Kershaw for several years when he was with the Dodgers.

https://youtu.be/qJ-57o9bmWM?si=gYZRTDYZNxgY2129

If Greinke was a little younger, he would have been celebrated for being the first major athlete clearly on the autism spectrum.

He and Kershaw were opposites. Kershaw was very emotional and let failure tilt him. Greinke was cold and didn't give a shit.

I remember Greinke not understanding why it would be an honor to represent the US at the Olympics. He asked, "How does this benefit me?"

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

If Greinke was a little younger, he would have been celebrated for being the first major athlete clearly on the autism spectrum.

He and Kershaw were opposites. Kershaw was very emotional and let failure tilt him. Greinke was cold and didn't give a shit.

I remember Greinke not understanding why it would be an honor to represent the US at the Olympics. He asked, "How does this benefit me?"

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I wonder what you meant by “a little younger”. Do you mean if Greinke was of the current generation of young athletes? The post “Elon Musk is cool” generation?

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Originally Posted by Sanlmar

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

If Greinke was a little younger, he would have been celebrated for being the first major athlete clearly on the autism spectrum.

He and Kershaw were opposites. Kershaw was very emotional and let failure tilt him. Greinke was cold and didn't give a shit.

I remember Greinke not understanding why it would be an honor to represent the US at the Olympics. He asked, "How does this benefit me?"

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I wonder what you meant by “a little younger”. Do you mean if Greinke was of the current generation of young athletes? The post “Elon Musk is cool” generation?

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I mean if he was born in 1993 versus 1983.

He stated in December that he wanted to pitch in 2024, but nobody was interested, given his age, his 5.06 ERA in 2023, and his 2-15 record that year.

Pretty amazing he didn't win the Cy Young in 2015, given his 1.66 ERA, 0.844 WHIP, and 19-3 record.

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Originally Posted by gut

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Originally Posted by BCR

Man both those bets crashed and burned. We move on. I only care when my greed cost me a 4-3 win when I bet RL. Outright losses sting less and neither was close.

Lots of Cease K props went up in flames last night. It was glaringly obvious the Pirates/Padres was going to be delayed after an inning or two with a wall of thunderstorms heading in that couldn’t miss them and they decided to start the game anyway and both starters got burnt. I never thought they would start it or I’d have fired under props on both starters as it had just hit me and I knew it was a 90 minute to 2 hour delay minimum.

Tribe double header today.

Was cheering for your Twins last night gut for Skenes ROY ticket purposes. Double kick to the balls. What’s the status if that bet atm? My book doesn’t have updated ROY odds. Or at least I don’t think they are updated as Skenes is -5000? One tweak and they shut him down and our bet goes up in smoke.

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DK has Merrill at +1400 and Imanaga at +2000. Only 2 other realistic options unless Busch goes on a tear. I did small hedges with each.

Pirates barely hanging in the periphery of the wild card race. Skenes could make 10 more starts. If they fall out of it, I don't think they would shut him completely down, they might slow him down though....extra days off/try to get him only starting at home.

Assuming everyone stays healthy, Skenes would really have to fall off a cliff to lose pole position. He has the hype, started the all-star game....read an article yesterday where the writer was pondering if he could win cy young lol.

What concerns me is wondering how many cranky traditional voter types might prefer a Merrill (2 HR's yesterday) if he finishes at .285 with a 20/20 and say 85 rbi's to boot. If the Pirates keep blowing Skenes starts, and his final w-l record is like 9-3, do they go the other way? Everyone on this thread knows pitcher wins is a bs stat that is behind the times now, but who knows who is voting.

EDIT: Just saw Skenes actually in 2nd posittion for cy young also lol. Sale +120, Skenes +200.

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@San re other thread.

Didn't see this Churio hot streak coming, but I'll sweat that.

Like I said on the above, i don't see Pirates shutting Skenes down completely. He is a draw for home games for one of the only owners who cares about hot dog sales.

Have a number of bets on this kid from Cleveland not being ready for this moment. Cleveland has success against lefties, so less sides and more so I need o.5 runs scored in 1st. Yankees to score in first at +165. Parlays with o 6.5.

Good outing for the Skenes bettors who didn't hedge because they didn't pay close enough attention.

I have 2 small San profit boost specials. Jose o1.5 bases and Guardians RL. Red ML and Stephenson over 1.5 bases. +430 and +290. Hopefully one hits. I wouldn't bet either normally, but these were based upon me betting on Betrivers Ohio and Pa app and specific to those two games. Guardians had one hit yesterday, and Eovaldi has been good, so I need 3.5/1 or more on average to even have any interest. I hit the Pirates one last night on Pirates RL parlayed with one hit by Reynolds for similar number. Also hit Yankees RL just nornal bet. They are suckering me in on these profit boosts for local games.

can someone please explain to me why the brewers and A's ML bet is basically 50-50 tonight some books even have MIL as slight dogs best price i can get is at @circa for MIL -106 OAK -104 ..... what am i missing here why do the books have this game at even? i know Yelich has been out for MIL, but they seem to be getting by just fine without him...? A's have a lefty starting but looks like MIL still hits good on lefties at .250 ba and .254 vs righties, why are the books so down on MIL @ OAK tonight?? TIA...

edit: i now have a 1/4 unit as to find out why...lol..??

Brew Crew wins 11-3, i also had them winning this pretty easily, but in all fairness not this easily, still don't understand why the sharps were so heavy on the A's ?? they scared me again and i thought i was missing something and i know not too long ago i said never again and full unit as always... but the pricing seemed too good to be true ?? i was more confused this time than last time but that was on an O/U .... really kicking myself in the ass... AGAIN !! i was really hoping some of you who are smarter than me had some answers as why the price was so cheap for MIL in this game, still baffled??!!! guess i shouldn't complain... a 1/4 unit win is a 1/4 unit win i guess?? just can't get over it though !!

i guess i was hoping you guys who are smarter than me at this stuff, would of looked at this game and said " i really don't see why the MIL price is this cheap either" ( other than sharp action ) and we could of come to a consensus it was a nice game to put some more money down, but that's ok, a win is a win i guess... i am just kinda pissed at myself for not trusting myself, but really this is my first year in trying to cap some MLB games.... i really like trying to do the O/U's in MLB...

Ohtani goes 40/40, the fastest MLB player to ever do so. Did so via grand slam walkoff.

Can he get 50/50? Possible.

Definitely a monster first year for him with the Dodgers.

Unlike some other huge contracts handed out lately (including Yamamoto's), this is one the Dodgers probably won't regret.

What an amazing talent. Hopefully the Dodgers' injury row starting staff doesn't waste it in the postseason.


Dodgers on pace to win 97.

The amazing thing? That's the best pace in baseball. They would have to go 23-10 to win 100, which is possible but not likely. There may not be any 100 game winners.

If the White Sox doesn't go better than 9-22. they will lose 120.

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

Ohtani goes 40/40, the fastest MLB player to ever do so. Did so via grand slam walkoff.

Can he get 50/50? Possible.

Definitely a monster first year for him with the Dodgers.

Unlike some other huge contracts handed out lately (including Yamamoto's), this is one the Dodgers probably won't regret.

What an amazing talent. Hopefully the Dodgers' injury row starting staff doesn't waste it in the postseason.


Dodgers on pace to win 97.

The amazing thing? That's the best pace in baseball. They would have to go 23-10 to win 100, which is possible but not likely. There may not be any 100 game winners.

If the White Sox doesn't go better than 9-22. they will lose 120.

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If you had told me even 5 years ago that the best athlete in my lifetime would be a Japanese baseball player, I wouldn’t have believed it. The Dodgers experiment of trying to win the World Series with a little league defense will fail however.

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Originally Posted by Jayjami

If you had told me even 5 years ago that the best athlete in my lifetime would be a Japanese baseball player, I wouldn’t have believed it. The Dodgers experiment of trying to win the World Series with a little league defense will fail however.

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Sho Knows Bo.

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

Ohtani goes 40/40, the fastest MLB player to ever do so. Did so via grand slam walkoff.

Can he get 50/50? Possible.

Definitely a monster first year for him with the Dodgers.

Unlike some other huge contracts handed out lately (including Yamamoto's), this is one the Dodgers probably won't regret.

What an amazing talent. Hopefully the Dodgers' injury row starting staff doesn't waste it in the postseason.


Dodgers on pace to win 97.

The amazing thing? That's the best pace in baseball. They would have to go 23-10 to win 100, which is possible but not likely. There may not be any 100 game winners.

If the White Sox doesn't go better than 9-22. they will lose 120.

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Two points

1. We don’t know at what level Ohtani will pitch. Recall your excitement about Buehler’s return. You had Buehler as your #1.

2. Jose Siri threw the 40HR ball back in the stands. No one really cared. 40 steals with the 2024 rules that enabled more base running makes the ploppy chatter sound cringe. I can’t even check a runner at first. Bigger bases. Etc etc. Making comparisons to other players in MLB history is only mildly interesting.

Ohtani likely is the best baseball player of my generation. Be great in a couple playoffs and he will be the greatest ever to play the game.

As a DH in 2024 he is reminding me of David Ortiz during the Red Sox World Series era. Clutch late inning HR’s.

Last night was epic.

Settle down and you will appear instantly smarter to your friends

Scrubbies were losing 10-3 vs PIT in the 6th inning.... Scrubbies won in regulation 14-10 scoring 6 runs in the top of the 9th...WOW... i am pretty sure i heard the announcer say that the PIT bullpen had given up 30 runs in this 3 game series...

Went to the Orioles/Dodgers game last night, saw the Dodgers lose 3-2 in a game which was close the entire way.

Great seats though, 2nd row loge behind home plate.

https://x.com/ToddWitteles/status/1828647251264372925


Some asked, "Druff, why didn't you go tonight and get the Ohtani bobblehead?"

This is why:


https://x.com/MLB/status/1828922457400521142

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

Some asked, "Druff, why didn't you go tonight and get the Ohtani bobblehead?"

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I know you’re a sentimentalist and would appreciate this.

First hit in the game on Ohtani’s Bobblehead night. Cashed ✅



Not mine but storybook. The beautiful game

Amazing. Not a terrible bet actually, regardless of results.

The only knock against him this year has been somewhat choking with runners in scoring position.

He's only hitting .269 with 3 HR with 2 out and RISP this year.

Late and close he's hitting .281 with 8 HR.

In so-called "High Leverage" at-bats, where he had 102 plate appearances, he has just a .253 average with 4 HR, and a .813 OPS.

Shohei has been human in the clutch. But other than that, he's been outstanding.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/p...&t=b#all_clutc

I really liked the Tribe tonight.

Cruising along 4-0, Rocchio tried tome fancy ball flip to get lead runner where he lost glove with one out instead of taking the easy out. You could feel the wheels come off. Lively proceeded to give up six runs without getting another out. Now down 6-4.

Thank god for Pirates bulllen.

Final 10-8.

Amount wagered included just to give sense of how badly I wanted to choke Rocchio for his idiocy. I would have killed him with my bare hands.


Single @
+135
Win
Aug 30 • 2024 At 05:47:44 PM
Ticket ID: 7824196383
Run Line: CLE Guardians -1.5
PIT Pirates @ CLE Guardians
8-10

Wager:
$1800.00
Pot. Payout:
$4230.00

I saw that game in the updates and didn't know you had bet it.

$1800... I didn't know you bet that high. From your post it seems you just bet more than usual.

Fortunately the Pirates put out two scrubs (including a spiraling Domingo German) and you got bailed out.

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

I saw that game in the updates and didn't know you had bet it.

$1800... I didn't know you bet that high. From your post it seems you just bet more than usual.

Fortunately the Pirates put out two scrubs (including a spiraling Domingo German) and you got bailed out.

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I’d say my average bet is $300-$500. Those o1.5 props and stuff a few hundred. I liked the matchup of lively versus leftie and we beat the shit out of pirates, so uncharacteristically large because I hit 2 cfb games last night and felt strongly. Pirates bullpen was so bad over last week. I figured even if I was wrong, I had shot late. Which is exactly what happened. Needed 3 in bottom of 8. Clase even gave up homer.

In a year with surprising parity, one team stands out


https://x.com/JeffPassan/status/1831114042548637936

Schwarber is on a hell of a heater right now. 4 home runs in last 7 ABs. 5 for 6 last night. Dude is going to have a 100 RBis hitting lead off.

@Druff

What do we know about Bobby Miller’s knee. His landing knee iirc.

He looked improved to me last outing. I kinda ant to involve myself on Dodgers side in some fashion but am concerned

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Originally Posted by Sanlmar

@Druff

What do we know about Bobby Miller’s knee. His landing knee iirc.

He looked improved to me last outing. I kinda ant to involve myself on Dodgers side in some fashion but am concerned

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Hard to tell. He did look improved last time. My exact thought. Hard to predict this game.