*** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

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Originally Posted by Kalam

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Originally Posted by ok25

Morris got 10 with 3 left in 1Q

Locked up

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I went to this game. Morris kinda stopped shooting after the first quarter. Clippers play a real flat rotation. He obvious can possibly score 20 points with the right game script, but IMO even with Kawhi out he is always a big dog to score 20 points, as he is never playing more than 27-29 minutes. And guys like George, Jackson and Powell are going to take a lot of shots, regardless of who has the hot hand.

This was Zion's first game back. I was of course worried he wasn't going to play, which would have been a bummer. I dont know what a good strategy for containing him is, but the Clippers didn't have it. Maybe you have to aggressively blanket him when he doesn't have the ball to deny him the ball in the first place, and/or blitz him as soon as he gets the ball.

The Clippers strategy was to basically let him get the ball in the midrange and clog the lane and dare him to shoot wide open 10-15 jumpers. However, he never did. He always just dribbled into the paint and either created a high % shot for himself or passed it to someone on the perimeter for a wide open 3. Between his big body, quickness, and his long arms it is very easy for him to create angles for high % layups, at least against that defense.

Also, as is well known his second jump is so quick when he does miss layups, he is very good at getting the rebound and putting it back up before guys like Zubac can even react.

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There are guys who run through these scenarios all day long in preparation for hammering nba player props. If you can get to the right cause and effect if a star player is out it can be money in the bank.

Single @
-124
Open
Nov 1 • 2022
Ticket ID: 5134486
Moneyline: HOU Astros
HOU Astros @ PHI Phillies


Single @
+138
Open
Nov 1 • 2022
Ticket ID: 513447
Run Line: HOU Astros -1.5
HOU Astros @ PHI Phillies


Phillies bullpen has been pitching above expectation. Time for a correction. Hopefully tonight.

These are some very dark times in professional sports wagering. My instincts to lay low have proven wise.

One man’s opinion. I can’t begin to comprehend NFL this year. NHL is creepy too. I am saddened. I may have lost my mojo but I blame the product instead.

I miss betting.

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Originally Posted by Sanlmar

These are some very dark times in professional sports wagering. My instincts to lay low have proven wise.

One man’s opinion. I can’t begin to comprehend NFL this year. NHL is creepy too. I am saddened. I may have lost my mojo but I blame the product instead.

I miss betting.

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Its a great time to be a punter. You just need to have your head about you and make sure you understand how it all works.

ND/Clemon line going from 4.5 to 3 pretty wild. Clemson -3 seems so good, it must be too good to be true. For all Clemson's offensive problems the last 1.5 years, it just seems the talent/speed gap should be too wide for ND to compete.

Also, I was listening to some podcast where a pro sports bettor said based on the numbers the O/U for Army/Air Force should be 48, and it is 40. That is a pretty big tax to be paying even for a strong trend (service academy games going under).

Its rare that i get myself into one of these situations but apparently I suck at sportsbetting like everyone else. Bet full sized on two games on Saturday. One of them being UNC -9.5

Its already down to 7.

Really cant see it. Virginia is fucking terrible. They scored 12 points vs miami and needed two overtimes to get there. The most they have scored vs a D1 team in 7 tries is 20 points. In todays naccf landscape thats abysmal.

I guess unc has played some close games because the let up some points but i just don't see how Virgina keeps up here. They have played two teams with tempo and “quicknstrike” O’s in Louisville and Duke and gave up 34 and 36 points. UNC by the numbers should hang 40 on them. I don't see how Virginia gets to 30.

Feel free to bump this when its 21-17 virginia.

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Originally Posted by Daly

Its rare that i get myself into one of these situations but apparently I suck at sportsbetting like everyone else. Bet full sized on two games on Saturday. One of them being UNC -9.5

Its already down to 7.

Really cant see it. Virginia is fucking terrible. They scored 12 points vs miami and needed two overtimes to get there. The most they have scored vs a D1 team in 7 tries is 20 points. In todays naccf landscape thats abysmal.

I guess unc has played some close games because the let up some points but i just don't see how Virgina keeps up here. They have played two teams with tempo and “quicknstrike” O’s in Louisville and Duke and gave up 34 and 36 points. UNC by the numbers should hang 40 on them. I don't see how Virginia gets to 30.

Feel free to bump this when its 21-17 virginia.

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What is the other game?

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Originally Posted by Sanlmar

These are some very dark times in professional sports wagering. My instincts to lay low have proven wise.

One man’s opinion. I can’t begin to comprehend NFL this year. NHL is creepy too. I am saddened. I may have lost my mojo but I blame the product instead.

I miss betting.

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One of the podcasts I listen to has a Vegas pro sports bettor named Steve Fezzik who says it has never actually been better to be a pro sports bettor. You just have to recognize where there is opportunity, mainly in derivative markets, and where there isn't anymore (eg. 6 point NFL teasers at -120).

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Originally Posted by Kalam

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Daly

Its rare that i get myself into one of these situations but apparently I suck at sportsbetting like everyone else. Bet full sized on two games on Saturday. One of them being UNC -9.5

Its already down to 7.

Really cant see it. Virginia is fucking terrible. They scored 12 points vs miami and needed two overtimes to get there. The most they have scored vs a D1 team in 7 tries is 20 points. In todays naccf landscape thats abysmal.

I guess unc has played some close games because the let up some points but i just don't see how Virgina keeps up here. They have played two teams with tempo and “quicknstrike” O’s in Louisville and Duke and gave up 34 and 36 points. UNC by the numbers should hang 40 on them. I don't see how Virginia gets to 30.

Feel free to bump this when its 21-17 virginia.

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Ucla -10 -120

What is the other game?

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by Kalam

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Sanlmar

These are some very dark times in professional sports wagering. My instincts to lay low have proven wise.

One man’s opinion. I can’t begin to comprehend NFL this year. NHL is creepy too. I am saddened. I may have lost my mojo but I blame the product instead.

I miss betting.

---

One of the podcasts I listen to has a Vegas pro sports bettor named Steve Fezzik who says it has never actually been better to be a pro sports bettor. You just have to recognize where there is opportunity, mainly in derivative markets, and where there isn't anymore (eg. 6 point NFL teasers at -120).

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by Kalam

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Sanlmar

These are some very dark times in professional sports wagering. My instincts to lay low have proven wise.

One man’s opinion. I can’t begin to comprehend NFL this year. NHL is creepy too. I am saddened. I may have lost my mojo but I blame the product instead.

I miss betting.

---

One of the podcasts I listen to has a Vegas pro sports bettor named Steve Fezzik who says it has never actually been better to be a pro sports bettor. You just have to recognize where there is opportunity, mainly in derivative markets, and where there isn't anymore (eg. 6 point NFL teasers at -120).

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I want to be clear - I meant betting on “pro sports” not that I’m some pro bettor, lol.

Druff is smoking it this year. He is the inverse me. I’ve never been more unable to handicap. I’m latching on to the narrative about the terrible state of quarterbacks in the NFL this year and using that as an excuse for the variance. I hear the Vegas (Circa) contests like “Last Man Standing” have experienced record mortality. Makes me feel good about my abstinence. Bottom line, I’m not adjusting like the pro gamblers (Druff).

NHL which I like as a fan is confusing, as well. NBA has been banned for years. I hate spread betting as a rule.

MLB Astros series at plus money has me spinning and scared when I shouldn’t be. I DO have a healthy respect for Phillies Dombroski - I have not pushed any buttons. I have no action on anything.

I admire the fact that I am not degen firing for kicks when I know I have no edge. I surprise myself. The void in my life can now be filled with drugs or painting in acrylics

Redundant posts from airport terminals. Sorry.

Flying is absolutely the lowest experience.

At least you're not flying with Air Canada ....then you wouldn't be flying your flight would be canceled.

Leafs -0.5 +100 first period.


and going under for MLB under 7.5

Last minute:

Washington vs Philadelphia - Under 217

starts in a few

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Originally Posted by simpdog

At least you're not flying with Air Canada ....then you wouldn't be flying your flight would be canceled.

Leafs -0.5 +100 first period.


and going under for MLB under 7.5

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Confirmed. I thought I hated US airlines until I flew Air Canada. My latest Air Canada fail involved them bashing up my new luggage.

Old, fat and ugly. American Airlines is hiring stewardesses

Some more NBA. Note that when it comes to the NBA so far, I haven't been the same guy as I've been with NFL.

Dallas -6.5 vs Utah
Memphis at Portland - Over 226.5
Miami vs Sacramento - Under 220.5 (starting soon)

Leafs came out hot but couldn’t score.

Sigh.

Let’s go Buffalo

Edit: never a doubt

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

Last minute:

Washington vs Philadelphia - Under 217

starts in a few

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They put up 73 in the 3rd unreal

Over/unders hard in NBA

73 points in the 3rd for Wash/Philly.

:fail2


Edit: Also 65 by Miami/Sac. That ones's not dead, but not a good start.

Well a 39 point 2nd quarter in the Miami game was helpful. Back on pace to win.