Printable View
Not loving this Eagles under, which going in was the only marginal one, and I landed on the side of making it.
20-3 after 1H. Funny enough I almost replaced it with Eagles -6 or whatever it was. Pretty clear they want to make a statement against Dallas. That NFC East sitting there with 3 teams exceeding expectations.
If I win this one, it will be all luck.
It steamed all the way up to 7 in my book. I took Cowboys +7. I also took Cowboys +3 2nd half. The second half bet is looking very good, and even decent chance Cowboys make this a game.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
59 yard FG attempt for the backdoor cover misses. Sigh.
Just not my year.
3-1 day, up 3 units. Lost this Eagles under by 1.
I've won 22 games (including some dogs), lost 5, and tied 1.
Of those 5 losses, one was a clear loss (though there was an unexpected injury after I bet it), two were sides which had a 50%+ chance to win at some point in the 4th, and two were unders which lost by 0.5-1 points.
None of today's wins were close. Anyway, can't complain about a +3 unit day.
Denver +185 at Chargers (+4 ok)
I wonder if Druff thrives when the sport is kinda crummy. He killed it in the waning weeks of inconsequential baseball too. TNF, SNF and now this fine MNF contest is right in his wheelhouse. Then again, Druff wins at all NFL so maybe I’m wrong.Quote:
Originally Posted by BCRYou aren’t a huge NFL fan, are you?Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
When I first got into the premier league like a decade ago, I had a year where I feel like I hit 85%. I didn’t have any pre-conceived notions or bias. I was just betting on the number and what I saw. It’s really hard to separate opinions on the past when you’re an avid viewer. Like I would have bet the Packers today because the Packers always win that game and the Jets are the Jets. That ignores I just saw the Giants smoke them last week.
I would have chalked it up to jet lag or whatever. Right now you’re just seeing value while I’m thinking Marcus Mariota against SF defense with no points? Fuck no. Because I’ve been following him since he was 19 years old and have always had a negative opinion of his game. The other two this afternoon were just good bets. Hope your late one hits. You’re killing it.
I'm not a huge NFL fan but I decided to get into it more this year, mainly because I was interested in trying my hand at betting it.Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarI wonder if Druff thrives when the sport is kinda crummy. He killed it in the waning weeks of inconsequential baseball too. TNF, SNF and now this fine MNF contest is right in his wheelhouse. Then again, Druff wins at all NFL so maybe I’m wrong.Quote:
Originally Posted by BCR
But you are correct that I analyze these games from a pure bettor's standpoint rather than an NFL fan's standpoint, which is different than how I approach MLB and NBA, also being longtime fans of those sports.
There are a few factors also working in my favor so far:
- There have been some clear underrated teams thus far, and clear overrated teams, and for whatever reason, the lines haven't adjusted much
- A lot of games expected by sharps to go under have gone under, and if they haven't, they've been close
- In general, the results have favored the positions taken by sharp and semi-sharp NFL bettors. I have seen other poker players bragging on social media that they've gotten off to a great start this year.
Nice pick!Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Chargers break out to a quick 10-0 start and offense has just been absolute shit since the mid-1st. They got a nice interception at the 17 and still couldn't get any more than a FG, and even that was close. Just watching bad play after bad play. These final 8.5 minutes can't end fast enough.
Todd - well done with the start to the nfl
Season.
Check your text. I have a idea/proposal for the freeroll $$.
Boy that was a horrendous possession. Back to Chargers ball with 2 mins left. I don't have a good feeling about this game. Broncos have no offense today. If not for that interception, they'd have 3 points since the mid-1st.
Wish I left the tv off. ArghhhhhQuote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
nice to have a 2nd screen going with the computer. If you don't have money on the game or aren't rooting for Druff's amazing run to continue its not watchable.Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarWish I left the tv off. ArghhhhhQuote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Wish I did +4 here.Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarWish I left the tv off. ArghhhhhQuote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Ugh. Likely final is 19-16 Chargers.
Oh apparently not. They're gonna run the clock down and take a Hail Mary shot.
I'd say more likely to end in tie. Both these teams stink.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan DruffWish I did +4 here.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Ugh. Likely final is 19-16 Chargers.
I heard the announcer say, “launch it downfield and see if he can get a PI”
Dreadful league. Random
Gimpy kickerQuote:
Originally Posted by Dan DruffWish I did +4 here.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Ugh. Likely final is 19-16 Chargers.
I skipped the points.
I wrote this before they failed to get that 1 yard with the 3rd down. But yeah a tie is very possible now.Quote:
Originally Posted by country978I'd say more likely to end in tie. Both these teams stink.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
This Denver offense is horrendous. The fact that they're even in OT is a miracle.