And LOL at this contact tracing. Does anyone really think in this country that will work? Tell you what, go into South Chicago 9am on a Saturday and ask some 20 somethings who they were around the last few days. See how that goes.
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And LOL at this contact tracing. Does anyone really think in this country that will work? Tell you what, go into South Chicago 9am on a Saturday and ask some 20 somethings who they were around the last few days. See how that goes.
Nice msnbc talking point. Trump said we would be doing 5 million tests a day very soon. Don't let the msm or Bill "I will take over the world with vaccines" convince you otherwise.Quote:
Originally Posted by tgull
Nice CNN talking point. There are 330M people in the country, it's NEVER going to happen. Even Bill Gates, Mr. Panic, says it's impossible. We are not set up as a country for that, the US is too big and disperse, and probably 150M will refuse to ever get tested anyway. I am not sure what planet people are living on anymore. Yeah, let's test everyone right away. LOL. If the country was serious about planning for a pandemic it would have been done like 25 years ago. Nobody gives a shit. A couple hundred thousand will die, virus will wane and people will get on with their lives next year. But please stop it with the "we need to test more". It's like telling a 400 LB guy to stop eating cheeseburgers, it's not going to happen.Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
Ever since a medical doctor friend of mine some years ago explained to me why Americans with their marketing-hype-driven obsession with nutritional supplements tend to have the most expensive piss in the world by far, I stopped becoming a regular vitamin pill/supplement consumer.
But now with the risk of getting seriously waylaid by the dreaded corona-plague, I decided today to take the plunge back into most likely wasting some hard-earned cash on such things when I spied for the umpteenth time in the impulse-buy section of a national chain truck stop store the following massively overpriced product.
Bottoms up!
P.S. It tastes pretty nasty. So, I definitely won’t be tempted to take more than one dose per day.
If Trump said that than he is full of shit too. Half the country will refuse a test, that is the way it is. Plus we have no capacity to do so on a consistent basis anyway so it is a moot point. The virus is here, probably has been since November, and it's going to run it's course until there is a vaccine. By the time there is a vaccine, it will likely have dissipated or mutated anyway. You can already see by the costal beaches people are going to take their chances anyway, the thought that 330M people are going to social distance is positively laughable. I was at the grocery store today and people were armed with their makeshift masks talking to people they knew and assumed they were just fine. I saw one guy take his mask down to cough and put it right back on.Quote:
Originally Posted by duped_samaritanNice msnbc talking point. Trump said we would be doing 5 million tests a day very soon. Don't let the msm or Bill "I will take over the world with vaccines" convince you otherwise.Quote:
Originally Posted by tgull
no offense, but you’re seeing this because you live in a low information and destitute part of the country.Quote:
Originally Posted by tgullIf Trump said that than he is full of shit too. Half the country will refuse a test, that is the way it is. Plus we have no capacity to do so on a consistent basis anyway so it is a moot point. The virus is here, probably has been since November, and it's going to run it's course until there is a vaccine. By the time there is a vaccine, it will likely have dissipated or mutated anyway. You can already see by the costal beaches people are going to take their chances anyway, the thought that 330M people are going to social distance is positively laughable. I was at the grocery store today and people were armed with their makeshift masks talking to people they knew and assumed they were just fine. I saw one guy take his mask down to cough and put it right back on.Quote:
Originally Posted by duped_samaritan
It would be a dream if that many had it already, but there is just no way imo. The five boroughs tested out at 19.9%. Bronx was the highest at 27.6% which makes sense considering they had the most cases of the boroughs. This was as of a few days ago. Antibody tests.Quote:
Originally Posted by DalyI’d be legitimately interested in hearing about the antibody test samples. You quote 15-20% which Im sure is factually true as you have proved to be well into the details of things you post about. I’ve been reading stories like the pork plant in Missouri where a few people out of the ~1000 employees started to call out so they had everyone tested. 373 of the 1000 came back as positive. Most had no idea they had it and were completely asymptomatic. Asymptomatic people aren’t getting tested. I know 10 people in Massachusetts who are 80%+ sure they have/had it but stil haven’t been tested.Quote:
Originally Posted by verminaard
In this fairy tail, and maybe that’s what it is, not 15-20% have had it but 40-50% have had it. In that case the death rate is as low as we hoped and we are closer to herd immunity.
We need testing - lots of it.
That’s the epicenter of this nightmare here. It was a fairly decent sample of 15000 tests through the five boroughs. Not conclusive, but better than a political poll with 400 respondents or something that falls within a fairly predictable MOE. I believe they said they have ordered 7 million tests
If NYC is testing at basically 20%, not even the state, but just the city, I just can’t imagine any scenario where it’s more than like 5-10% in a Missouri or Arizona or any state not on the east coast. I’d be curious to see like Washington State just to see if it’s some surprise from the lesser west coast strain, but even 10% in most places feels wildly optimistic if NYC is 20.
I would guess 1 out of 20 in the country has had this thing. I think that might be high. It would be wonderful if the whole country is 20%, but I can’t think how that is even possible given how much easier it is to spread in congested city that is only popping 20%.
It’s going to take like six waves of this thing to get to the 60-70% herd number they say is required given the RO of this virus.
This assumes the test isn’t garbage and missing half the people with antibodies. That would be the only way any of us outside NYC is more than 20% to already have had this.
hey guys great news!
https://scitechdaily.com/coronavirus...tiplies-there/
"More extensive testing using not only nose and throat swabs, but also rectal swabs or stool samples may thus be needed."
Another montage of our Narcissist-in-Chief in action during this pandemic crisis.
https://youtu.be/L8sfu9IKZGA
(Thanks, Obama.)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Walter SobchakLove the sign language interpreter LOLQuote:
Originally Posted by tommyt
The Chinese, for all their bullshit regarding numbers, were onto this way back. Their doctors wrote a lot of reports that have popped up over here as new information. We threw out pretty much everything out of China because they were so full of shit on numbers and missed a lot of good information from doctors.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
Those with gastrointestinal involvement had longer duration of illness and worse outcomes also. I’m guessing not because of anything that occurs in GI tract, but that it must move into lungs via that route. From everything I’ve read stool samples are way better test than the nasal swab.
They also wrote about men’s cases being of longer duration because of more ACE-2 receptors in the male groin way back. I don’t know if it was being vague intentionally or if it was a translation error. I never saw anything referenced on that early finding until last week when I saw an article that said they found huge amounts of the virus in our testicles when they did a few autopsies.
I guess there are a ton of receptors there and it lingers. Something about immune system working slowly to eradicate the virus when it’s lying dormant there.
Men have worse outcomes, but their cases also last longer.
They’ve been trying to get to the bottom of it, and they aren’t sure why yet, but threw that as one of the possibilities.
Originally in China and Iran they assumed it was because of men smoking far more, but as it moved around the world, women are obese more frequently than men both internationally and in the US, and the smoking rates are similar in the US and many other western countries amongst the sexes, yet men keep dying at the same higher rate despite women being a little more frequently obese. Plus this thing literally attaches to fat cells and women have much higher body fat percentages even amongst two fit people, so they are trying to figure out why men continue to die more, and our balls are one suspect.
From what I've seen in NYC over the last week he's right about people just not doing it. A few weeks ago it was a ghost town. Nice weather + people sick of staying inside their tiny ass apartments for almost 2 months seems to be changing everyone's mentality. Over the weekend I saw MAGAtards walking around arm in arm to "practice their civil liberties" and hippies mask shaming parents for letting their kids ride scooters on the sidewalk without a mask. They're all out and about though, and so was I - my 5-10 minute daily walk for my sanity turned into a much longer walk. I even went into a bodega and bought some Jamaican pattys(!)Quote:
Originally Posted by Kryptno offense, but you’re seeing this because you live in a low information and destitute part of the country.Quote:
Originally Posted by tgull
The "social distancing wont work because there are people not doing it" and "tracing is a waste of time because it's impossible to trace everyone" arguments are bull shit though. When the down side is cases/deaths growing exponentially, every little bit of effort put into stopping the spread theoretically stops a huge number of people from being infected and dying. Every time a single spread from one person to another is stopped there's a realistic chance that hundreds or thousands of infections are prevented.
Three frontline health care workers have mysteriously fallen out of hospital windows in Russia over the past two weeks, heightening public attention to the working conditions for doctors and medical professionals amid the coronavirus pandemic.
Just a misunderstanding totally normal to have doctors falling out windows.
Could be a glimpse into the future of some US states that reopen too quickly.
Quote:
Originally Posted by simpdog
they all spoke poorly of the state agenda regarding covid19.
so by your theory, they would likely be falling out of the windows of states that refuse to open up early.
also i believe it was within a week of each other and there were quite a few before that.
https://pokerfraudalert.com/forum/sh...l=1#post897235
If the additional ACE-2 receptors really is a big factor, I was smart to continue quitting the Losartan.Quote:
Originally Posted by BCRThe Chinese, for all their bullshit regarding numbers, were onto this way back. Their doctors wrote a lot of reports that have popped up over here as new information. We threw out pretty much everything out of China because they were so full of shit on numbers and missed a lot of good information from doctors.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
Those with gastrointestinal involvement had longer duration of illness and worse outcomes also. I’m guessing not because of anything that occurs in GI tract, but that it must move into lungs via that route. From everything I’ve read stool samples are way better test than the nasal swab.
They also wrote about men’s cases being of longer duration because of more ACE-2 receptors in the male groin way back. I don’t know if it was being vague intentionally or if it was a translation error. I never saw anything referenced on that early finding until last week when I saw an article that said they found huge amounts of the virus in our testicles when they did a few autopsies.
I guess there are a ton of receptors there and it lingers. Something about immune system working slowly to eradicate the virus when it’s lying dormant there.
Men have worse outcomes, but their cases also last longer.
They’ve been trying to get to the bottom of it, and they aren’t sure why yet, but threw that as one of the possibilities.
Originally in China and Iran they assumed it was because of men smoking far more, but as it moved around the world, women are obese more frequently than men both internationally and in the US, and the smoking rates are similar in the US and many other western countries amongst the sexes, yet men keep dying at the same higher rate despite women being a little more frequently obese. Plus this thing literally attaches to fat cells and women have much higher body fat percentages even amongst two fit people, so they are trying to figure out why men continue to die more, and our balls are one suspect.
You know that I'm the opposite of a MAGA "let's open everything because this isn't dangerous" guy.Quote:
Originally Posted by duped_samaritanFrom what I've seen in NYC over the last week he's right about people just not doing it. A few weeks ago it was a ghost town. Nice weather + people sick of staying inside their tiny ass apartments for almost 2 months seems to be changing everyone's mentality. Over the weekend I saw MAGAtards walking around arm in arm to "practice their civil liberties" and hippies mask shaming parents for letting their kids ride scooters on the sidewalk without a mask. They're all out and about though, and so was I - my 5-10 minute daily walk for my sanity turned into a much longer walk. I even went into a bodega and bought some Jamaican pattys(!)Quote:
Originally Posted by Krypt
The "social distancing wont work because there are people not doing it" and "tracing is a waste of time because it's impossible to trace everyone" arguments are bull shit though. When the down side is cases/deaths growing exponentially, every little bit of effort put into stopping the spread theoretically stops a huge number of people from being infected and dying. Every time a single spread from one person to another is stopped there's a realistic chance that hundreds or thousands of infections are prevented.
However, contact tracing at this point IS a waste of time. If we really get the incidence of new cases down VERY low, then contact tracing could come into play again. We are nowhere near that point. Talking about contact tracing right now is idiocy. It is spreading around too much, even with the social distancing, and we have far too many new cases.
Attempting to solve this via contact tracing is like attempting to solve an ant problem in your house by killing individual ants with your fingers. Yeah, you can try to say "every little bit counts", but in reality it's useless.
The left has become obsessed with "testing and contact tracing" over the past few weeks because they are trying to find a smart-sounding alternative to the "we gotta open the economy now" rhetoric on the right. The left can't make a case to just keep everything closed indefinitely with no game-changer coming anytime soon, so now they're trying to claim that testing and contact tracing is the answer. It isn't. It's as absurd as the 74k total deaths figure being pushed earlier this week.
In general, the value of testing has been overrated from early on. Yes, testing is useful, and yes, we need it, but it won't solve very much once the disease takes hold in the population (which it already has, obviously). The treatment of someone with COVID-19-like symptoms is the same with or without a positive test, and there's not enough known about the antibody situation for that test to be incredibly useful right now. Even if the antibodies mean you can't get infected again, and if it's eventually a super accurate test, it still won't save lives. It will just allow those who already had it return to the population without concern.
The left really needs to lose the obsession with the contact tracing and testing, and the right needs to lose the belief that the virus not being as dangerous as reported.
But yes, people are going to start pushing back on the shelter-in-place thing as this drags on longer, and there's no light at the end of the tunnel.
If it appeared we just had to tough this out until June 15 when a game-changer was expected, then people would continue cooperating. Here it just appears there's no real end and no logical time when reopening is expected to be deemed "safe", so a lot of people are rebelling.
Which is sort of understandable.
I disagree with a lot of the idiotic tactics from some morons on the right who are convinced the entire threat is a media-driven hoax, but the underlying message -- that we need to move to the next phase of dealing with this, now that we have hospital/ventilator capacity up -- and that continuing to have a shutdown with no real stated goal is absurd.
People are rebelling due to Fox News and your idiot tyrant.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Less Americans will/would die (Republicans) if these two entities were rooted in reality.
Yeah, I'll give you that. In most other ways you're very MAGA, especially when it comes to defending Trump and blaming democrats at all cost.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
If the majority of the ants were separated, and you were planning on gradually letting them start to interact with each other, and your primary goal was to drop the infection rate from potentially 1.5-2 down to less than 1...Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
The left isn't as confident as the right in just figuring out for themselves the best strategy to handle a global pandemic. They just blindly listen to what the most qualified experts in the world have to say on most things sciency.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Quote:
ANTHONY FAUCI: If you start pulling back on mitigation, physical separations, there will be infections. The real proof of the pudding of the success of this reentry is how quickly and effectively you identify them, you get them out of circulation, you give them care where needed and you do contact tracing so that you don't have a beginning of a peak.
Explain how contact tracing is going to work, when people are allowed to go to "essential" places like the grocery store.
Look at our own COVID-19-infected member Drawingdead. I asked him where he's been in the past 7 days. He said the supermarket and the auto parts store.
Okay, what next? We're stuck. It would require an insane amount of resources (and perhaps be impossible) to track down everyone at these stores when he was there (including those who were there hours before him).
If there were almost no cases in the US, then yes, all resources could be focused upon guys like Drawingdead to find any possible carrier. In a country where the cases will not be that low any time soon (even with continued social distancing), it's impossible.
Contact tracing can only work if:
1) There is a complete lockdown where nobody goes out into public at all, so it's easy to trace down who they've been in contact with
-or-
2) There are very few overall cases, so massive resources can be dedicated to trace down possible contacts of the few cases -- almost the way you'd search for a patient zero
The left lives in some fantasy world right now where we can contact trace soon if we just continue hunkering down.
The problem is that the right has a reckless plan and the left has a stupid plan.
That's where we stand at the moment.
The right just wants to "open up" and let the chips fall where they may. Some on the right stupidly think that this wasn't much of a threat in the first place.
The left wants to continue leaving things closed, and ramp up testing and contact tracing, somehow believing we can contain this because South Korea supposedly did it at one point? Nobody can explain how this is supposed to practically work. Somehow with 24,000 new cases still rolling in per day, we're supposed to be able to contact trace ourselves out of this one. L O fucking L at that.
Here's the basic problem we're dealing with.
I think abown83 said that, as a country, we're actually better off if we just get it overwith, infect as many as quickly as possible, get herd immunity, and yes, a bunch of people are going to die. However, the percentage of people dead is still relatively low compared to the country as a whole, so it can continue functioning without these people, especially with most being old/sick already, and thus a burden upon society anyway.
Harsh but sadly true. Unfortunately, we can't just take that solution because human beings aren't numbers on a balance sheet. You're not going to go along with this if it's you or your mom who ends up in the ground, just so the country can be better long term. Thus, we could not use such a solution unless we were of hive mind, which human beings aren't.
I mention this because there are some realities which both sides don't want to face.
The left doesn't want to face the reality that the economy is going to be completely fucked if we stay down for much longer, and that will also bring its own set of problems (including death and despair). At the same time, there is no game-changer which would allow us them to give a date when it's safe to open up. Therefore, they have to lie to everyone and claim that we can contact trace and test our way out of this mess.
The right doesn't want to face the reality that we are realistically looking at 300k-1m people dying from this, and that opening things up will put us closer to the higher end of that number, because these people get deprived of possible advances (treatments/vaccines) down the road. So they lie about the likely death rate and death toll, and keep trying to compare it (incorrectly) to the seasonal flu or swine flu.
And while I've always hated the King Solomon middle-of-the-road approach, as it tends to be a cowardly copout in most cases, the best solution really does lie somewhere in the middle.
We need to reopen up, but we need to do it intelligently. Testing can play a part in this, but more to discern whether or not the current phase of reopening has come with acceptable loss (or hopefully minimal loss), and this must be done about 3 weeks after each phase begins.
That's the smart way. Unfortunately, neither side is interested in being smart about this.
Contact tracing only works if you've basically contained the virus, and are getting very few new cases.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Not when you're getting 30,000 new cases per day.... that ship has already sailed for now.
You'd need to get the new infections under 500 per day in the US to realistically contact trace.
Maybe if your self confessed genius had done his job, you'd be in a position to contact trace.
Honestly, I think you should just give up and let the virus "wash over" the community, you're never going to contain it now IMHO... leave the contact tracing for first world countries. *cheeky smile*
Yes, that's what I said (the first part of what you wrote). Contact tracing only works if you've either contained it or if there are barely any cases yet. It could also theoretically work if there were virtually zero instances of people going out in public, which of course isn't possible in the US.Quote:
Originally Posted by Salty_AusContact tracing only works if you've basically contained the virus, and are getting very few new cases.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Not when you're getting 30,000 new cases per day.... that ship has already sailed for now.
You'd need to get the new infections under 500 per day in the US to realistically contact trace.
Maybe if your self confessed genius had done his job, you'd be in a position to contact trace.
Honestly, I think you should just give up and let the virus "wash over" the community, you're never going to contain it now IMHO... leave the contact tracing for first world countries. *cheeky smile*
Aus got lucky, though. The lack of spreading there was either due to a lower number of imported cases into the country, the reversed climate (it showed up in the middle of your summer), or both.
I disagree. The left knows the economy will be fucked. Most of what I've heard on the left is "listen to the experts." And the experts say we can begin to open up, but only after we are prepared to open up, which we aren't yet. the experts also say "open up in phases, and make sure each phase doesn't screw us up before we move on to the next phase." Whereas the protesters are saying "everything back to normal, right now."Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
So if you're for a phased opening, you're agreeing with the left.
We also need to be better prepared for future events of this type. And we can be, but not with people like Trump in office.
I wouldn't say it was luck.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan DruffYes, that's what I said (the first part of what you wrote). Contact tracing only works if you've either contained it or if there are barely any cases yet. It could also theoretically work if there were virtually zero instances of people going out in public, which of course isn't possible in the US.Quote:
Originally Posted by Salty_Aus
Aus got lucky, though. The lack of spreading there was either due to a lower number of imported cases into the country, the reversed climate (it showed up in the middle of your summer), or both.
In the early days of this virus we had more confirmed cases then the US, we were like 5th for total cases on the global list for a few days.
The difference being we actually tested quite comprehensively in the early days, we did nearly 10,000 tests while you guys scratched your bum and did 477 total.
We were nearly overwhelmed too, we were so busy testing those from China, Iran, Italy and the rest of Europe that we allowed travel to and from the US, and then 90% of our cases came in via the US. I honestly thought we were fucked when we were getting 500 new cases per day. (mostly directly from the US)
Yeah the weather has played a part I feel, perhaps mandatory BCG vaccinations for so many years too has helped.
Overall, I agree more with the left on this one, yes. However, I have lots of issues with their ideas, as well. The fact that we're even talking about contact tracing at this point shows that the left doesn't get it.Quote:
Originally Posted by Walter SobchakI disagree. The left knows the economy will be fucked. Most of what I've heard on the left is "listen to the experts." And the experts say we can begin to open up, but only after we are prepared to open up, which we aren't yet. the experts also say "open up in phases, and make sure each phase doesn't screw us up before we move on to the next phase." Whereas the protesters are saying "everything back to normal, right now."Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
So if you're for a phased opening, you're agreeing with the left.
We also need to be better prepared for future events of this type. And we can be, but not with people like Trump in office.
The left doesn't just defer to the experts, either. They defer to the experts when the experts say things they like. When those same experts don't say things they like, then those people are accused of saying what Trump wants them to say.
Besides, it's clear to me that we can only half-trust the information we get from the government and media, because they're engaging in what they think is lying for the greater good.
Remember all of the lies about the masks, and the subsequent admission that this was a lie for the good of hospital workers?
I believe we're still getting fed other lies and other information is being suppressed. As I mentioned before, I think they are exaggerating the true danger to people under 35, for fear that if they don't, these people won't social distance. Which is probably a valid concern, but during a crisis like this, we need truthful information, not lies meant to push us to act how they want.
The media must stop having these "experts" from the Heritage Foundation, Cato Institute and the American Enterprise Institute on these news programs and talk shows. They are not fucking "experts". They are bias representatives of conservative Republican think tanks that have an agenda. The Cato Institute was setup by Charles Koch to lie about climate change and the oil & gas industry.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
:survey
I think a booming profession to be in after quarantine is over is being a divorce lawyer.
You can bet a ton of divorces will happen once this shit ends.
Druff,
I found the scientists you mentioned during this week’s radio show who were just recently only projecting about 70,000 deaths in the US from the corona plague. They’ve updated their model and projection just a tad.
Key coronavirus model doubles projected US deaths to 134,000 as social distancing fades
https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/04/healt...ths/index.html
You are missing one incredibly important point, New York for terms of numbers that they are using isn’t 8 million. New York City including suburbs is 20 million but the issue is that spreads to a few states so maybe 12 million people? Look up the county numbers, highest counties are “New York City” but really suburbs.Quote:
Originally Posted by verminaard
Also how does 45% Brown people skew the numbers, since they seem to be more susceptible to the virus?
Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
Indeed. One of the stocks i follow, EXAS (the shit in a box for colon cancer company) has been working to get approval for just that.
you’re such a fucking clownQuote:
Originally Posted by TellafriendQuote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
Indeed. One of the stocks i follow, EXAS (the shit in a box for colon cancer company) has been working to get approval for just that.
Contact Tracing has to be the dumbest idea ever, to institute in the middle of a US pandemic. Consider:Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
1) You would have to hire probably a half a million people to do it correctly in the a country this size, both geography and population
2) You would have to screen and do back ground checks on all these people, over half would fail the initial background check
3) You would have to train all these people
4) You would have to get all these people set up on payroll, benefits, etc..
5) You would need to set up a management structure to manage all these testers. Half would quit after a month since it likely will be a dangerous job
6) You would effectively have to create a new Department like Homeland Security in the early 2000s, which took years to finally get it right
7) You would need to get Congress to appropriate the funds
The whole thing is positively laughable, but it's a CNN talking point so I can see why a select few parrot it on this site. Most people here cannot even consistently find their way to work without a GPS, so to understand the complexity of contact tracing in the US is too much to ask. Really it is. Contact tracing is something that takes years to implement, and that assumes you lock everyone down for months like you did in Wuhan and deliver 99% of groceries to it's effective prisoners. Lots of luck on that in this country. See how well beach mitigation is going in this country.
Ahh I figured out the mathQuote:
Originally Posted by abrown83You are missing one incredibly important point, New York for terms of numbers that they are using isn’t 8 million. New York City including suburbs is 20 million but the issue is that spreads to a few states so maybe 12 million people? Look up the county numbers, highest counties are “New York City” but really suburbs.Quote:
Originally Posted by verminaard
Also how does 45% Brown people skew the numbers, since they seem to be more susceptible to the virus?
13,500 people divided by 1,2000,000 to 1,600,000 infected= .8% to 1.1% death rate.
I am interested in comparing those numbers versus where I live for example...
We have tested 1 in every 182 people in the State (one of the highest in the country).
20% of our tests come back positive.
Now if we figure 40% of people show no symptoms, 40% show mild symptoms....so let's say 75% of those people never get tested.
So we actually have 3x the number of reported cases.
That gives my State a .6% death rate.
But of the 188 deaths, 87 are over the age of 80 (18.7% death rate), 75 are 60-80 (5.5% death rate), 22 are 40-60 (.6% death rate), 4 are 18-40 (.1% death rate).
My State is White and very old, NYC is younger and very brown, but has a higher death rate. Guessing this has something to do with the air pollution and minorities in NYC? Curious what your thoughts are.
Let's give me some credit here. I was the first to wave the proverbial flag on this site that obese were a target of this virus, I just was. I may have been among the first in the country. Now everyone is coming around. Not saying I was like Sonatine predicting the Wuhan lab connection in January, but it's not bad if you ask me.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...ns-closed.html
With a sub 20 BMI you're safe bottomset
https://www.latimes.com/california/s...-than-original
So that's bad news for the ol herd immunity theory
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kryptyou’re such a fucking clownQuote:
Originally Posted by Tellafriend
Still sore I pointed out that you are a broke dick? Use your $1200 to restock:
i'm sorry but i love drakkar. haven't had it since high school but still
that scale is so tiltingQuote:
Originally Posted by verminaardThis disease map has Coronavirus where it belongs IMO, and also gives some perspective just how it stacks up against other diseases pre vaccines. It aint measles, and it aint smallpox, and it aint Ebola. But it is A LOT more deadly and debilitating than flu.
What we don't know that could make it worse is how long immunity lasts or whether there is long term complications, especially following mild illness.
If this was an endemic disease chances are very high we would all just get it as kids, it wouldn't even be that bad for most, and we would have some level of immunity through our lives so that it was never a problem, until maybe you get old and your immune system starts dysfuncitoning. Noone would be having their first exposure at 40+ years of age the way we are now.
I don't know for sure this is how it would play out if it was endemic, but I think there is a fairly high likelihood.