Pro-Trump Justices TERMINATE Our Right To Vote
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uojqveY7HJY
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Pro-Trump Justices TERMINATE Our Right To Vote
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uojqveY7HJY
okay im done.... lol
was too well rested after my 3 week break
Updated PA numbers.
Mail Ballots Returned by Party Registration
Party Returned Ballots Freq. Distribution Requested Ballots Return Rate
Democrats 1,275,43 of 1,926,783 66.2%
Republicans 394,408 of 775,084 50.9%
Minor 11,826 of 25,047 47.2%
No Party Affiliation 168,730 of 331,504 50.9%
TOTAL 1,850,400 of 3,058,418 60.5%
Doesn’t really tell you much other than the obvious that Dems have likely ran it up early. In Florida they say the polling of those who have voted early is 61-37 Biden with him winning more registered republicans than Trump won registered Dems and grabbing 58sh% of NPA. That was a few days ago. With all this early voting by party identification, it’s all hard to really know much.
Trump won 2,970,732- 2,926,441 in 2016
I’d guess with an extra 300k registered voters and much higher turnout, maybe 3.2-3.4 million needed to win?
Obama did nothing
Trump pardons a lot of black people
Newest:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bZd5mZpDZAs
Hold it all for an even bigger win.Quote:
Originally Posted by thesidedish
UP 5 LARGEQuote:
Originally Posted by thesidedish
Portfolio Value$19,399.62
Gain/Loss + $5,075.35
This is what it looks like when someone who knows something schools someone who knows nothing.Quote:
Originally Posted by PLOLLmao that's not how it works. What percentage of registered voters haven't voted in 2016 yet? Do you really think voter turnout is 100%? lolQuote:
Originally Posted by BiffCo99
Look at the vote count compared to 2016 and add 15%
As Election Nears End, Efforts To Stifle Vote Intensify; History Shows: Perseverance Pays
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Eq3zPFnxNwI
DeJoy should be locked up imo little scumbag that he is
Court sets plan to make sure Postal Service delivers ballots quickly, one week ahead of Election Day
States and other groups had sought for courts to monitor and enforce the rulings they won. Sullivan's order on Tuesday essentially puts the judge in place to track the USPS operations daily, leading up to the election.
According to Sullivan's order Tuesday, the Postal Service now must provide daily updates to the court on mail delivery data and lawyers from the administration will appear daily before the judge.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/27/polit...day/index.html
That’s what it looks like when a snarky and smug wannabe poll shaman responds without addressing the actual issue. My larger point was correct, the majority of people in Pa. have not voted.Quote:
Originally Posted by Walter SobchakThis is what it looks like when someone who knows something schools someone who knows nothing.Quote:
Originally Posted by PLOL
NEW polls hot off the press
A+ rated pollster has Biden up 17 in 2 polls outta Wisconsin
Does anyone know if ABROWN has been to Wisconsin lately to let us know how it feels on the ground there and to get an exact count of trump and Biden lawn signs?
Still waiting on your rigging the election answer.
I am genuinely curious as to how an election with 150 million voters can be rigged
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...ident-general/
if you can find a better metaphor for trumpism than this, my hat is off to you:
https://www.newsweek.com/omaha-trump...hermia-1542741
trumpists bussed from parking lots miles away in for a night time rally in omaha because there's no more local parking. busses then leave. trump does his pep talk and flies away on airforce one. trumpists are left wandering around in the fucking cold, at night, for hours, literally hyperthermic and confused, because no one thought about how to get the back to their cars after the rally.
Trump campaign isn’t springing for the round trip shuttle service. It’s just 4 miles in 30 degree weatherQuote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
Entire neighborhoods in Philly were destroyed last night for no reason. Riots also broke out in Brooklyn and DC. Seems important but most libs just be like who cares.
https://twitter.com/Julio_Rosas11/st...93375287578628
bifftard- nobody gives a fuck that a rite aid and a chick filet had their windows busted out
225k dead and a virus and a president that are out of control
much bigger problems to worry about than a couple of store fronts getting bricked
What about the poor people who live in these neighborhoods? You think they care?Quote:
Originally Posted by big dick
How would you like to live in a neighborhood where everything is destroyed and there are no businesses?
Do you think businesses are going to reinvest and rebuild in these communities?
lmao @ eNtiRe NeIGhbOrHoOdS
OK elitist scumQuote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
MEANWHILE IN OMAHA
Good find. I am hearing she also tested positive for COVID this morning and is now currently on a ventilator.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
I'm happy for Blaire that she's grabbed 183k followers by playing pretend.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
Imagine being lectured about humor by people who think this is funny.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan DruffI'm happy for Blaire that she's grabbed 183k followers by playing pretend.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
TED CRUZ SAYS TRUMP SHOULD DROP THE HUNTER BIDEN AMBUSH BECAUSE ITS NOT SWAYING ANY VOTES - FOX NEWS
blake: lol but has to be fake
bruh 80% of my posts are blaire erskine routines.
Quote:
Originally Posted by big dick
if trump wins wisconsin after this, it's the end of polling.
Hard to understate how big that Wisconsin poll is by ABC/Wapo. I'm sure it's an outlier, but even as an outlier that's pretty big. They're one of the best polling firms. The best polling firms are Siena/Upshot, Monmouth, Selzer, and ABC/Wapo. They're actually being gutsy posting that number and resting the urge to 'herd', which is common amongst pollsters and led to lower quality polling towards the end in 2016. The fact that the numbers on PI are barely moving affirms to me what a joke some of the numbers on that site are.
The Rona is spiking in WI btw. Market is down again today on the Rona numbers. Market going down the final week of election is not great for the incumbent.
There is always money in telling people what they want to hear, but in general, I have to think the 538s and polls are worthless if they’re wrong again. Not that it’s Silver’s fault necessarily. He only had the polls to deal with, and if they suck, he’s fucked. I actually thought if I was him I’d be erring in trafalagar territory on being conservative. Whatever my algorithm told me, I‘D just add 20 to it. If Trump loses, people who listen to him will be so happy they won’t care. But if Trump wins again, it’s really hard to take a guy seriously who is a poll aggregator when the polls would be off again after telling us how they fixed themQuote:
Originally Posted by blakeQuote:
Originally Posted by big dick
if trump wins wisconsin after this, it's the end of polling.
national polls are kind of worthless in an electoral college system.
but my god, if abc/wapo got wisconsin *this* wrong. if that happens, i might actually buy into the idea that it was a DNC funded voter suppression poll
i'm sure everyone realizes how difficult it would be for trump to win if he loses wisconsin
He actually did. In fact many people take issue with his new model for being way too conservative. If you plug Biden's numbers into his old model it would actually show Biden up by even more than his current model does. The problem is, Biden is up by so much more in the polling than Clinton was in 2016 so it's still not bringing Trump's number up much (but he does give Trump a much better chance than the other major models). What Nate did was basically give an incumbency advantage (which I think is silly) and gave more weighting towards 'fundamentals', so for instance every time the S&P 500 goes up, it increases Trump's odds slightly. This was adding a couple points to Trump in every state, though the effects diminish closer to the election and polling becomes more important.Quote:
Originally Posted by BCRI actually thought if I was Nate Silver I’d be erring in trafalagar territory on being conservative. Whatever my algorithm told me, I‘D just add 20 to it.Quote:
Originally Posted by blake
People seem to be under the impression that pollsters haven't changed their methodology at all in response to 2016. This is not true at all. While you don't want to go crazy and overcorrect based on one outcome, at the very least pollsters are now hyper-aware of the importance of education and are more careful to weight based on education so that they don't undersample non-college educated people (who may be less likely to talk to pollsters).
If they were going to fund a poll, fund one in PA. All the betting markets are far more worried about your state than WI. WI didn’t need another great outlier poll. All the polls have been good there consistently. You’re right though, they’re toast if they miss by 17 six days before the election. They had to be scared to release it. It’s so out there it makes me want to fire on a Texas or something where the early voting has been off the hook.
anyone have any thoughts on odds for dems to take senate?
The Wisconsin poll could easily be rigged to justify an after the fact “Trump stole the election” narrative if he wins Wisconsin.
I mean, see, look at these polls a week before the election. There’s no way he could have won. He must have cheated.
I agree. I think it's probably a conspiracy involving ABC and The Washington Post to discredit the election. Possible Bezos called up his underlings and ordered it done himself. Hopefully somebody leaks the truth one day.Quote:
Originally Posted by BiffCo99
It’s called a contingency plan.Quote:
Originally Posted by PLOLI agree. I think it's probably a conspiracy involving ABC and The Washington Post to discredit the election. Possible Bezos called up his underlings and ordered it done himself. Hopefully somebody leaks the truth one day.Quote:
Originally Posted by BiffCo99
I would definitely like to see PA polled to death over the next 6 days. Having said that, flipping FL + WI would be enough for Biden to win. Also, you should look at Iowa. WI and TX are pretty dissimilar, but Biden has also had a recent poll surge in neighboring Iowa which is more correlated.Quote:
Originally Posted by BCR
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...den-way-ahead/
Nate Silver himself has promoted the idea that Trump could steal the Election. Super unbiased guy.
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/st...56153561292800
Looks to me they didn’t ask people their political party affiliation, seems like an outlier when you don’t do that and make basic adjustments for party registration.Quote:
Originally Posted by PLOL
again, it's the end of polling, focus groups, etc., if they botch wisconsin. there is just no coming back from that.Quote:
Originally Posted by abrown83Looks to me they didn’t ask people their political party affiliation, seems like an outlier when you don’t do that and make basic adjustments for party registration.Quote:
Originally Posted by PLOL
You’re right. All the left wing institutions will be in on it.Quote:
Originally Posted by PLOLI agree. I think it's probably a conspiracy involving ABC and The Washington Post to discredit the election. Possible Bezos called up his underlings and ordered it done himself. Hopefully somebody leaks the truth one day.Quote:
Originally Posted by BiffCo99
Just wait until Big Tech shuts down all right wing outlets’ ability to disseminate information on Election Night.
One thing that Donald Trump has exposed is that the media are lying pieces of shit and will do anything for ratings. Exactly like himself.Quote:
Originally Posted by blake
https://www.economist.com/sites/defa...woc172_0_0.png