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Only a 41-14 start for Milwaukee.
Can I have a massive comeback again? I'm not holding my breath. Still a 25 point game near halftime.
Oh well. I should have learned from the last game, betting against the Bullets (I can't accept this Wizards shit) that they suck balls.
76-60 as I write this. Washington looking somewhat better. Maybe I can get that +8.5 in trash time. Glad I didn't bet on that moneyline.
Edit: Ugh 81-60. Still, 8 point loss isn't impossible in trash time, so this one isn't dead.
Wow, KCP had it within 7 points at 1:56 left, but ultimately ended up a 12-point loss for Wash. Thought I had a second big comeback win. Wash just needed to keep it under 9! Oh well.
AI? Yeah, they talk about shading customers in opaque ways. Comparison made to people getting different hotel rates. Gives me the creeps.Quote:
Originally Posted by simpdog
You have to graduate to hockey analytics. This is the intro course. It is moderated by Jack Ma who is one of the last independent industry critics. There is a lot of double speak (lying basically) coming from Caesars Entertainment (JBSmoove) and DraftKings, etc. about their intentions and business models. Jack Ma, like Haralobob once did, keeps these clowns in check. The result is interesting and important.
Acquisition costs.
The heavy losses the industry has suffered so far.
Low sports wagering margins. You become part of an overall wallet including more profitable casino & poker & perhaps brick and mortar.
There is even a quick discussion toward the end of hockey being only 4% with changing rules and strategies (ex:empty net) that they are slow to model. Other sports have so many markets. Hockey hasn’t been developed at all.
https://youtu.be/SAmDjtOUjlQ
I’ve been loving this stuff for years. You’ve seen me post before. My tastes may be odd to you.
You are a resourceful lad. You will find the hockey conference.
I’m hearing Ontario is legal now. I pray for your soul. All the stuff I predicted is coming true.
Please acknowledge seeing this else I will hunt you down and you remember the last time I harassed your secretary.
Posted about Ontario in the poker forum.....segregated poker pools.Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarAI? Yeah, they talk about shading customers in opaque ways. Comparison made to people getting different hotel rates. Gives me the creeps.Quote:
Originally Posted by simpdog
You have to graduate to hockey analytics. This is the intro course. It is moderated by Jack Ma who is one of the last independent industry critics. There is a lot of double speak (lying basically) coming from Caesars Entertainment (JBSmoove) and DraftKings, etc. about their intentions and business models. Jack Ma, like Haralobob once did, keeps these clowns in check. The result is interesting and important.
Acquisition costs.
The heavy losses the industry has suffered so far.
Low sports wagering margins. You become part of an overall wallet including more profitable casino & poker & perhaps brick and mortar.
There is even a quick discussion toward the end of hockey being only 4% with changing rules and strategies (ex:empty net) that they are slow to model. Other sports have so many markets. Hockey hasn’t been developed at all.
https://youtu.be/SAmDjtOUjlQ
I’ve been loving this stuff for years. You’ve seen me post before. My tastes may be odd to you.
You are a resourceful lad. You will find the hockey conference.
I’m hearing Ontario is legal now. I pray for your soul. All the stuff I predicted is coming true.
Please acknowledge seeing this else I will hunt you down and you remember the last time I harassed your secretary.
As for sportsbetting, the only thing I can look forward to is perhaps bonuses as they fight for us as customers?
I can't see the lines getting any better. Right now I have access to Canada + Euro + offshore. If we are limited to Canadian facing books the lines will be shit for betting Leafs, although I guess they have been choking in the playoffs my whole lifetime.....could get some good lines the other way?
Going with the Jays -1.5 +110 today. Good line up in let's hope they can build up a good lead like they did a couple days ago.
Dallas vs. Utah - Under 214
+1800 down to +1500 now.Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
Speaking of new arrivals to the “one handle” club I don’t think we will see Scottie S trade with 2 handle again for a while, and nor should he.
The golf market is funny to me…. Guys don’t fall off the top of the market as quickly as they should.
Give me Cam Smith, Scottie S, Colin M …. Heck even Burns or Hoge. You can have Rory, X, Speith, Koepka
Yet every week the former in the 20’s and 30’s and the later at 16-1. I don’t fucking get it.
Jamaica -1.5
Fill me in on “free bets” on these legal sites.
The following someone in another forum posted. He’s a clueless fuck. He says these free bets just show up.
I understand the first time deposit bonuses for customer acquisition marketing. I now strongly suspect there is some kind of rake back going on.
This isn’t isolated. EVERYONE gets free bets. I finally asked for a snapshot and here you are. It’s from MGM
St. Peter +8.5 and U138
I’m gonna pull my “one time” limitles. It’s all I can think of when I try to handicap this game.Quote:
Originally Posted by Pablo
Where To Now St. Peter - Elton John.
Ann Wilson (Heart) singing background.
I think Elton John does the Toubadour in LA and America “discovers” him at the time the album is released.
https://youtu.be/mOHLQg4VfqE
I know March Madness is a “made for television” extravaganza and I don’t think networks want them in the Finals. I disagree but have you looked at their programming. They have no clue.
I’m off for now.
Dallas 56% from the field and 57% from 3-point land, hitting 16 of them.
That ain't gonna cut it for the under. Sad!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Don't know how to feel.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Under looked fucked. Then a scoring drought in mid-4th caused it to only have 203 points with 1:37 left, in trash time.
Easy win, right?
Nope... 9 straight points in next 37 seconds.
Then a miss... then Rudy Gay has it with 39s left. Shoots with 22s... misses. Dallas up by 16, I win, right?
No. Gay gets offensive board and puts it in to make it 114-100.
Dallas holds ball as expected. Tie for me.
Sadly had I bet this later in the day, I would have won.
Time for a blowout bet.
Sacramento is missing Fox, Sabonis, Jackson, and Holmes. Normal line is Miami -13.5.
Miami -20.5 +300 vs. Sacramento
The new look NBA is suddenly irresistible.
Warriors 33 pointw at half?
I’m in. More alts please
Celtics lose Williams to a season ending knee injury. They go to Toronto w/o Horford and are leading late. “Fallen Hero” handicap.
So I look ahead cause that’s a classic “let down” spot in sports. It’s Miami. I look and see Miami is locked is a battle with Celts for the top spot. So I pass.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Thanks for the GIF
They had to make me nervous all 4th. Got up 27, then gave up 8 straight, then sat between 19-24 for a long time.
Then I thought I had it, up 24 with 40 seconds left... but then a 3 sank with 31 secs left, and I pictured Miami missing and Sac putting in a final bucket in trash time. Well, Miami did miss, but they got an offensive board and put it back in. Had to fade a 3-pointer at 1 second which would've made it a 20-point finish, but fortunately it bricked, and that's that.
It's +300 though, so comes with the territory.
I knew some sharps who liked Toronto given that Brown/Tatum/Williams/Horford were out, but I wasn't feeling it. 106-102 Celtics with a minute left.
To Sandwich:
I got the +300 at Betonline. Here's where to find it:
Go to "NBA GAME PROPS" from the normal betting sidebar, and then scroll down. You'll see each matchup as a bet you can place on the point margin, and you'll be choosing "21 points ore more", which means -20.5. Don't bother with any of the others, as those margins are incredibly hard to hit (like 17-to-20).
I'm looking at possibly Dallas today (no Lebron or Davis for Lakers) or Brooklyn (against Detroit, with Jerami Grant now out for season), but still deciding.
Brooklyn is only +250 for -20.5, and Detroit has been good at keeping games close, despite repeatedly losing. Last Pistons loss by 21+ was on February 11. Lakers have also kept it surprisingly close in the games without Lebron/AD, including one on March 7.
I might skip both. They're coming up at 4:40 PT.