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Yeah that's gotta be wrong. It would also wipe out most smokers within 10 years.Quote:
Originally Posted by BetCheckBet
That can’t be right. You are telling me if you are a smoker in India you have a 8 percent chance of dying within a year?Quote:
Originally Posted by simpdog
I get I’m playing with the numbers but the smoker to death ratio looks too high.
The ratio is USA is about 1.5 percebt
My bad. It’s over 61k now. The reason for this post was I saw this video making the rounds a few days ago. Two Bakersfield quacks who run urgent cares comparing the death rates for the flu to this thing. Typical Facebook retard nonsense. I ignored it even though it was being gobbled up. I’m sure these guys have some financial incentive for misleading people and comparing yearly rates to something that’s been around in any real numbers for six weeks.Quote:
Originally Posted by BCR
https://banned.video/watch?id=5ea4994ea881fd00808e95ad
I didn’t care until I saw them on Fox News spouting the same garbage to a much larger audience.
Arguments about the cost to the economy v human life are fair arguments. I don’t consider anyone Mengele for questioning our approach and if what we are doing is worth the cost. That’s pragmatism.
This continued drumbeat of false equivalencies that I see coming out of right wing media is why they’ll always own this virus here in the US and many of the deaths. Make an honest survival of the fittest argument based on actual facts. Explain the societal costs of a down economy for a prolonged period of time. Quit lying about the cost of the virus though.
It’s so fucking disingenuous and it’s been constant since this thing has arrived from Trump on down through his media machine. Always lying and minimizing. It’s going to blow up right in their face come election time if we are sitting at 250k dead.
If you make a true argument with real facts and projections, put the question to the American people , then it’s a societal decision. He didn’t create the virus. Lying about the implications though, that’s entirely different.
Quote:
Originally Posted by BCRMy bad. It’s over 61k now. The reason for this post was I saw this video making the rounds a few days ago. Two Bakersfield quacks who run urgent cares comparing the death rates for the flu to this thing. Typical Facebook retard nonsense. I ignored it even though it was being gobbled up. I’m sure these guys have some financial incentive for misleading people and comparing yearly rates to something that’s been around in any real numbers for six weeks.Quote:
Originally Posted by BCR
https://banned.video/watch?id=5ea4994ea881fd00808e95ad
I didn’t care until I saw them on Fox News spouting the same garbage to a much larger audience.
Arguments about the cost to the economy v human life are fair arguments. I don’t consider anyone Mengele for questioning our approach and if what we are doing is worth the cost. That’s pragmatism.
This continued drumbeat of false equivalencies that I see coming out of right wing media is why they’ll always own this virus here in the US and many of the deaths. Make an honest survival of the fittest argument based on actual facts. Explain the societal costs of a down economy for a prolonged period of time. Quit lying about the cost of the virus though.
It’s so fucking disingenuous and it’s been constant since this thing has arrived from Trump on down through his media machine. Always lying and minimizing. It’s going to blow up right in their face come election time if we are sitting at 250k dead.
If you make a true argument with real facts and projections, put the question to the American people , then it’s a societal decision. He didn’t create the virus. Lying about the implications though, that’s entirely different.
I believe for some its a psychological coping mechanism designed to hide the reality of the situation by living in a make believe world which they get to set the rules and boundaries
I agree with most of this. As you've seen, I've been on the "this is very dangerous" train for a long time, and have never minimized the seriousness, despite being an obvious right winger. As I've told fellow Republicans, "You can still be a good right winger and take this seriously at the same time."Quote:
Originally Posted by BCRMy bad. It’s over 61k now. The reason for this post was I saw this video making the rounds a few days ago. Two Bakersfield quacks who run urgent cares comparing the death rates for the flu to this thing. Typical Facebook retard nonsense. I ignored it even though it was being gobbled up. I’m sure these guys have some financial incentive for misleading people and comparing yearly rates to something that’s been around in any real numbers for six weeks.Quote:
Originally Posted by BCR
https://banned.video/watch?id=5ea4994ea881fd00808e95ad
I didn’t care until I saw them on Fox News spouting the same garbage to a much larger audience.
Arguments about the cost to the economy v human life are fair arguments. I don’t consider anyone Mengele for questioning our approach and if what we are doing is worth the cost. That’s pragmatism.
This continued drumbeat of false equivalencies that I see coming out of right wing media is why they’ll always own this virus here in the US and many of the deaths. Make an honest survival of the fittest argument based on actual facts. Explain the societal costs of a down economy for a prolonged period of time. Quit lying about the cost of the virus though.
It’s so fucking disingenuous and it’s been constant since this thing has arrived from Trump on down through his media machine. Always lying and minimizing. It’s going to blow up right in their face come election time if we are sitting at 250k dead.
If you make a true argument with real facts and projections, put the question to the American people , then it’s a societal decision. He didn’t create the virus. Lying about the implications though, that’s entirely different.
Unfortunately, there's a mix of conspiratards, freedomtards, Trump fanatics who think the mainstream media and Democrats are exaggerating this in order to harm Trump.
I think the proper solution -- one which will always have some kind of cost -- is to carefully open the economy in phases, wait 3 weeks each time, and see what happens after each one. If things don't get much worse, move to the next phase. If they do get worse, either hold at that phase or dial it back.
The "open everything" people do have one fair point -- that there may not ever be a vaccine or super-effective treatment, nor does there seem to be one just over the horizon -- so we are just shooting ourselves in the foot by being overly restrictive at this point, especially since the hospital and ventilator capacity seems to be sufficient now.
For the most part, I am not thrilled with how my party is handling this. At the same time, a lot of Democrats are also completely out in the weeds, with some advocating long-term shutdowns and large payments to every family, which would cause hyperinflation beyond belief. And then there's the whole #cancelrent bullshit. Just a lot of lunacy coming from both sides, to be honest.
I would like to see a good projection model, though, because I believe all of them are shit.
Like there was a recent University of Washington projection which says that 66-73k people will die from this by August 4. Total. What?? They made that projection on a day when 59k had already been confirmed dead.
I'm feeling like the total number is going to be 300k, and it wouldn't surprise me if it ends up over a million, if we can't get a handle it for a long time.
Quote:
Originally Posted by OSAQuote:
Originally Posted by BCR
I believe for some its a psychological coping mechanism designed to hide the reality of the situation by living in a make believe world which they get to set the rules and boundaries
Just say we are going to lose half a million people and possibly your mom or dad. Would you prefer to go to the gym and fuck twinks or spare your parents? I have you down for option 1 as a -500 favorite. That assumes your parents are still with us. -10000 if they have met an early death.
some good news
Dr. Fauci Praises Remdesivir Success in Treating Coronavirus: ‘Quite Good News’
https://www.mediaite.com/news/dr-ant...g-coronavirus/
"Fauci went on to claim that the Safety Monitoring Board notified him 'that the data shows that Remdesivir has a clear-cut, significant positive effect in diminishing the time to recovery.'"
apparently the drug caused a 31% improvement in terms of recovery time in an actual legit randomized placebo-controlled trial
Quote:
Originally Posted by BCR
jesus has the wheel tho.
Well were just talking about my mom and I would stay indoors the rest of the year if it was necessary. However, I could do option 1 and my mom would still be ok staying at home, walking around with masks, washing hands etc. However, if you asked old people if they want to spend their last years doing this or just living the last years they have left on Earth to the fullest. My mom went through 2 WTC terrorist attacks and having to raise me. I think she deserve to take her chances if she wants to.Quote:
Originally Posted by BCRQuote:
Originally Posted by OSA
Just say we are going to lose half a million people and possibly your mom or dad. Would you prefer to go to the gym and fuck twinks or spare your parents? I have you down for option 1 as a -500 favorite. That assumes your parents are still with us. -10000 if they have met an early death.
Honestly I trust yours and my guess as much as any model. How can you model anything when testing has been so sporadic? We are still getting 23k-30k new cases a day. My gut says testing is easier to come by than three weeks ago which means more less severe cases than when every positive was an ER case.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
That’s just what I see locally I’m guessing we will see deaths of like 1k a day in a few weeks but I’m just guessing. I said 70k deaths heading into summer earlier, but after seeing another over 2k day today, I think I’m low. Either way, so much depends on summer having some effect and whether they send kids back to school in fall. If they do, it will be carnage. That’s always the sickest time right when they go back here in the Midwest.
Kids go back and are sick two weeks later with something. I think common sense is anywhere from 200k-500k if kids go back and whether that peak hits in the calendar year and if it’s a cool fall and a bunch of other factors. More than 500k if you do March to March almost certainly barring a miracle drug.
we totally engineered this shit didnt we.
Hurry the fuck up, super scientists! Smaller/independent truckers are getting decimated out here!Quote:
Originally Posted by blake
A third of small fleets shut down as COVID-19 guts freight market
https://www.overdriveonline.com/smal...reight-market/
Gotta get out there and live work fuck shit and lose some or we will lose all.
Our founding fathers would be embarrassed of this time.
Kushner calls US coronavirus response a 'success story'Quote:
Originally Posted by BCRMy bad. It’s over 61k now. The reason for this post was I saw this video making the rounds a few days ago. Two Bakersfield quacks who run urgent cares comparing the death rates for the flu to this thing. Typical Facebook retard nonsense. I ignored it even though it was being gobbled up. I’m sure these guys have some financial incentive for misleading people and comparing yearly rates to something that’s been around in any real numbers for six weeks.Quote:
Originally Posted by BCR
https://banned.video/watch?id=5ea4994ea881fd00808e95ad
I didn’t care until I saw them on Fox News spouting the same garbage to a much larger audience.
Arguments about the cost to the economy v human life are fair arguments. I don’t consider anyone Mengele for questioning our approach and if what we are doing is worth the cost. That’s pragmatism.
This continued drumbeat of false equivalencies that I see coming out of right wing media is why they’ll always own this virus here in the US and many of the deaths. Make an honest survival of the fittest argument based on actual facts. Explain the societal costs of a down economy for a prolonged period of time. Quit lying about the cost of the virus though.
It’s so fucking disingenuous and it’s been constant since this thing has arrived from Trump on down through his media machine. Always lying and minimizing. It’s going to blow up right in their face come election time if we are sitting at 250k dead.
If you make a true argument with real facts and projections, put the question to the American people , then it’s a societal decision. He didn’t create the virus. Lying about the implications though, that’s entirely different.
He is a bad as trump almost.
Two cocksuckers
You don’t know what you are fucking talking about. The “founding fathers” were well versed in the practice of using quarantines to stem the spread of infectious diseases.Quote:
Originally Posted by splitthis
https://tullyhistoricalsociety.org/tahs/medical.php
Here’s a passage about one particular contagious disease that the authorities in the colonies, and later the early US used quarantines to eliminate from the resident population.
Quote:
Yellow Fever
John Duffy calls it a "strange and unaccountable pestilence that brought death in a horrible fashion to its victims". Known also as "Bilious Plague" and "Black Vomit" it was transmitted by mosquitoes and often arrived from the West Indies. The mosquitoes are thought to have survived in buckets or containers of stagnant water on board ship; and once the mosquitoes hit port cities with temperate climates-like Charleston-the yellow fever quickly spread. The virus transmitted by the mosquitoes had a quick on set and left its victims tired, feverish, jaundiced, and they often would hemorrhage. Duffy says it "was one of the most dreaded diseases in the affected regions [and had it] adapted itself to all areas in the British American colonies, yellow fever would undoubtedly have ranked with small pox as a leading cause of death". And like malaria, whites were more susceptible to the disease than blacks. Charleston was the hardest-hit, though as evidenced by the following chart, other large port cities suffered epidemics. Most outbreaks started in the tropical West Indies and Bahamas where fatalities were higher than in the American colonies. Between the years of 1760 and 1793, Duffy tells us that yellow fever disappeared from the colonies. He credits this to stronger and better-enforced quarantine laws.
Care to explain? What is your basis for saying so?Quote:
Originally Posted by splitthis
They didn't even know what causes disease and had very few tools for curing them. One thing they did do was quarantine. Would they ever have contemplated how to choose from among the options that we have available now? It would be like asking you to evaluate the options for dealing with a complex scenario described to you in Chinese.
You know what the Founders would have absolutely hated? Trump.
For the Kushners and the Trumps it is a success story. They got a massive tax cut out of it. (Another one.)Quote:
Originally Posted by big dickKushner calls US coronavirus response a 'success story'Quote:
Originally Posted by BCR
He is a bad as trump almost.
Two cocksuckers
the owners of that funeral home should be arrested
women, poc's and all marginalized peopleQuote:
Originally Posted by Walter Sobchak
Slaughterhouses across the country have been closing because of the coronavirus. About 5,000 employees have tested positive for the virus and a couple dozen have died so far.
Trump then signs an order to keep them open anyway by labeling them critical infrastructure.
So if you get infected by the coronavirus from eating contaminated meat, pork or chicken, please blame Donald Trump.
https://render.fineartamerica.com/im...n-corcoran.jpg
never thought id say it but Adelson is a close 2nd to trump on my death list
the fat orange pig takes over the top spot by a nose
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheXFactor
I hadn’t heard the neat is contaminated. I know over 30 have died given the cool temps and necessity to work closely. That shot lives a long time on cool surfaces. Has there been verified cases of contaminated food? I don’t know how you’d verify that given people don’t know where the fuck they catch this, but I hadn’t heard that. I have seen the Union guys pissed.
No cases of contaminated meat yet.
Why take a chance?
If you eat meat, pork, or chicken, it would be best if you buy organic or from a high end supplier that raises their own grass-fed product that is not from the slaughterhouses.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vVVXcGEnRKM
You think the run on supermarkets were bad just dealing with toilet paper?
Just wait till you close down these factories. Chicken thighs are going to be going for 20/lb
Why is Andrew Cuomo getting a pass for the disaster in his state? Why is de Blasio getting a pass for the disaster in his city?
They're still running crowded subway trains and other crowded trains from Long Island, Connecticut, and New Jersey. Cuomo just announced that they're going to start sanitizing the subways overnight. Yeah, great idea... why did you decide until late April to decide to do this?
I realize that NYC is largely dependent upon public transportation, but they haven't taken the public transportation angle seriously at all, and they've suffered for it.
And what about de Blasio getting a pass for telling Jews that he's going to arrest them for getting together? He put out a message specifically addressed to Jews about this, because of one group of Jews attending a funeral. Can you imagine if black people were at a funeral? Would de Blasio have scolded all black people for this and threatened to arrest them? I doubt it.
How are either of these two clowns getting any kind of credit? Their results have been dreadful. You can say that NYC is cramped and was destined to be a hotspot, but why isn't San Francisco (also similarly cramped) suffering the same fate?
I guess since Cuomo likes to scold Trump in his brusque New York manner, that makes him sound "in charge" and like someone who knows what he's doing.
New York City is worse than Italy and Spain in terms of death per 1,000,000 people. If you take greater NYC out of the stats, the rest of the US has one of the best death-per-million results in the entire world. Seriously. Look it up.
No one who isn't black is a far of Mayor DeBlasioQuote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
If there were gatherings like the one in Chicago, in NY, I would hope DeBlasio would say that same thing. But the fact is that the Orthodox Jewish community have not respected any rules that the city have put out to maintain safety. Religion supersedes everything else. If you seen what they were doing to Jews in Israel, you wouldn't be so harsh with DeBlasio.
In regards to the public transportation, the homeless have taken over and crime has shot through the roof. I wouldn't take the train just based on those 2 factors.
Yes, the homeless are the reason they are finally deciding to "sanitize" the subway!Quote:
Originally Posted by OSANo one who isn't black is a far of Mayor DeBlasioQuote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
If there were gatherings like the one in Chicago, in NY, I would hope DeBlasio would say that same thing. But the fact is that the Orthodox Jewish community have not respected any rules that the city have put out to maintain safety. Religion supersedes everything else. If you seen what they were doing to Jews in Israel, you wouldn't be so harsh with DeBlasio.
In regards to the public transportation, the homeless have taken over and crime has shot through the roof. I wouldn't take the train just based on those 2 factors.
Andrew Cuomo recently called it "disgusting" that homeless were sleeping on the trains and making them gross. Can you imagine the outrage if a Republican governor ever called the homeless "disgusting"?
For the same reason Obama got a pass for 8 years. They both present themselves very well, creates the illusion they’re playing great.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
You know what would happen? Fox news, therefore people like you and sidestep and tgull, would come to rescue and validate everything that GOP said.
This isn’t a guess.
Plus he didn't call them disgusting, obviously. You, like a true Fox "news" viewer, conflated the two statements.
He's done more for homeless people than everyone on this forum combined, so save it.
Trump calls Baltimore ‘disgusting ... rodent infested mess,’ rips Rep. Elijah Cummings over border criticism
https://www.baltimoresun.com/politic...5zi-story.html
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
I think its simply because they come off as functioning, dependable adults next to your jenius.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Imagine if Trump even had Mike Pence's demeanor and simply could gaslight with a calm, straight face.
Instead, Trump uses them to lash out as the media, seems more doddering by the day and floats truly insane notions of ingesting disinfectants.
Turns out being an insane lunatic helps your opposition in the eyes of the public .
Looks like Trump is putting pressure on scientists and intelligence agencies to conclude that the virus came from a lab in Wuhan.
The facts show this is very likely NOT the case.
The virus came from China and China deserves plenty of blame for trying to cover things up. Fuck those assholes. BUT that doesn't mean it came from a lab. It almost certainly came directly from animals, probably in those wet markets.
This reminds me of how W and Cheney tried to force intelligence to fit their Iraq WMD allegations. Totally irresponsible.
Good intelligence, science and data should drive policy decisions. NOT the other way around.
tl;dr: fuck China but fuck Trump too. (As always.)
Interesting post. Rich with detail.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
The pandemic is several months old. Trump has been spoken for hours nearly every day. I have never seen any thoughtful detailed criticism of the President from you.
You generally acknowledge he doesn’t excel at this but otherwise crickets.
Folks value those who can suspend partisan politics and think critically at all times.
Carry on
Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarInteresting post. Rich with detail.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
The pandemic is several months old. Trump has been spoken for hours nearly every day. I have never seen any thoughtful detailed criticism of the President from you.
You generally acknowledge he doesn’t excel at this but otherwise crickets.
Folks value those who can suspend partisan politics and think critically at all times.
Carry on
here comes with a post with the first sentence being about how trump can vaguely "be doing better" followed by 10 sentences about how unfair the democrats are
Well in fairness, if everyone else posting in this thread is criticizing Trump, I don't see a compelling reason Druff needs to jump on the bandwagon.
I am EXTREMELY critical of how Trump has handled this, and his presidency as a whole. I will definitely vote for whoever runs against him in the general election, I don't care who it is. I believe Reade and think Biden is senile and would just be a figurehead for DNC party rule and I still would vote for Biden over him.
That being said, I don't waste a lot of energy regurgitating the Trump hate. I don't really have any unique insights in that area. You guys have it covered pretty well, and then some. I definitely spend more energy pointing out that people are using their dislike of Trump to cloud their judgement of everything else going on in the world.
Let me know that you have listened to this BCR. I’m going to have to insist you do. Otherwise, I’ll have to hunt you down.
This piece frames the discussion exquisitely. It offers a quick historical review for those harboring misinformation and ignorance about China’s performance. You can only wish we were as efficient and successful.
https://www.npr.org/sections/health-...ournalist-saysQuote:
"I hear anecdotally that people [in the U.S.] are holding ... barbecues and people are still going out on Internet dates and having play dates with kids," he says.
"Unfortunately, that's the reason that we have about 30,000 new infections a day in this country. ... China didn't reopen until they had zero new infections a day."
I read the article. I do agree with the author that if people who recover from infection have immunity (and despite scare-mongering there is no reason to assume they wouldn't, although we don't know definitively) we are going to have this perverse incentive/reward structure where people that are disobedient and unconscientious go about their lives (and get infected and recover) will be rewarded for it, and the rest of us who are doing our civic duty will be punished.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Verm. Things I’m still thinking about a day or two later
China’s process. Removing a patient from family.
Willfully infecting oneself. Historical anecdotes
Lol, contact tracing when there are 30k new cases a day. Just stupid.
China opening only after achieving near zero new cases.
Lol sports returning
Update on rental situations in NY
Friend just signed a 2 year lease extension and get this....
He's paying $50 more a month for the first year and staying the same the 2nd year.
I told him he is playing his cards and not the situation. He tells me because he lives a block from Central Park, in the UWS, people aren't struggling to make ends meet and are actually moving in the neighborhood.
He spent so much money making the place nice and moving in furniture etc he didn't want to lose the apartment. I'm like ok, whatever. Enjoy.