If leaning steelers that should knock price down like $50Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Dallas?
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If leaning steelers that should knock price down like $50Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Dallas?
The Bengals have scored 113 points the last 3 weeks. Sure they are 1-2 in those three games. But the one win was against Pittsburgh.
Scary spot
For reference, here are the teams I've used:
AZ, Dal, TB, Hou, Ind, GB, KC, NE, LAR, Den
I have said for a long time that Week 11 is going to be one of my most challenging. I am monitoring the Pittsburgh situation. I am seeing the line has moved from -6.5 on 11/4 to -5.5 -105 today. It was still -6 on 11/9. That's not good!!
The problem is I have limited viable choices. Atlanta is -3.5 at home versus Carolina, but Atlanta has eaten a lot of Survivor tickets, including 3 of mine.
There's Baltimore, but again, this is on the road and I'd hate to waste them in this spot.
Minnesota is -3 at home against Chicago.
That's pretty much it. It's going to be one of those four: Atlanta, Baltimore, Minnesota, or Pittsburgh.
New wrinkle:
Joe Burrow says he is targeting coming BACK by Thanksgiving Day, just in time to play... Baltimore!!
Which makes my targeted pick on the Ravens for Thanksgiving not so great anymore.
This means I might have to shift to the Eagles for that game, opening up Baltimore for this week. Maybe.
Then my plans to use Philly on Week 16 fall apart, which would force me to use Buffalo. That would mean I can't use Buffalo for anything else.
Decisions, decisions...
51.5% of people have NE left. I don't. The vast majority will fire it in Thursday against the Jets. Of course you know who I'll be rooting for, but I don't have high hopes that the Jets can upset them, especially on the road.
To review how good my ticket is -- at least for the moment -- note the % of the field which has these teams left:
Buffalo: 18.3%
Detroit: 23.9%
Seattle: 29.4%
The only good team which has over 50% left which I've already used is KC.
At the moment I am leaning Baltimore for W11. I have found a way to use them this week and still have each remaining game projected (at the moment) 65% or better probability to win.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
of these, only looking at this week, i would be most afraid of Atl. Balt has played pretty good the last two weeks, cleveland is cleveland, though at home. Minn should beat Chicago by more than the 3pt line and are at home, inside. chicago has gotten lucky so far against not very good teams. Pittsburgh is so unpredictable but should beat cinncy. shit, you didn't list them, but LAC should beat JAX tho they too are unpredictable. Atl has lost 4 in a row. but have beaten some good teams in their 3 wins.
i'd lean balt, minn/pitt, atl in that order w/o considering future use for the moment.
NE, Det, Bal seems like logical path next 3 weeks.
:noQuote:
Originally Posted by Daly
NE already used
Bal has gone to 7.5 from 8.5
Pitt BACK to 6
Ugh. This is going to be a tough decision.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
If you got Chargers open for week 13 can go
bal, Det, LAC
If you want to build some real equity and go Pitt I could see it.
This would be the last week you could even semi comfortably pick Pitt. Balt has a lot of chances.
i still show pitt at -5.5 and balt at -8. regardless, i am now getting more concerned with Pitt though its hard to say why beyond their lack of consistency on both sides. fwiw, they have a really tough road ahead as well, so if they are going to force a win, this has to be it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by DalyQuote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
If you got Chargers open for week 13 can go
bal, Det, LAC
Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tellafriend
Not about building equity.
You know as well as anyone, Daly, when there's a TD+ line for a road favorite which keeps drifting toward 7, you end up seeing a lot of OUTRIGHT victories for the home dog.
If this continues, I'm going to have to skip Baltimore this week and go with Pitt or someone else.
Looks like it's probably going to be Pittsburgh, and I'm going to sit on pins and needles during the game.
They can't all be easy. Hell, Denver was -9 last week and it was really tough! (I predicted that, though, and was nervous about the pick.)
I'm seeing some sharps on Pittsburgh -5.5. I'm not seeing any on Cincy so far. However, I am seeing a lot on Cleveland +7.5. That doesn't mean Cleveland still can't win outright, but at the moment I feel really uncomfortable about this one, like Baltimore is going to get upset.
Ironically, a close-call pick involving Pittsburgh is what sunk me two years ago in Week 10. As part of the PFA group, we agonized over whether to pick Cincinnati or Pittsburgh, as both were questionable, but both were really our only two realistic choices. We went with Cincy against Houston, which barely lost, and we were out. Pittsburgh barely won. Both came down to the final play, so essentially we fell on the wrong side of the coin flip.
This time it's between Pittsburgh and Baltimore for me. I don't trust Atlanta, and Minnesota is falling to -2.5 on some books, so big nope on that.
This time I will probably go with Pittsburgh, rather than picking the other option.
Oh, and Daly, I can't take Detroit next week because of the Christmas pick. I have to hold them for that. In non-Circa, it would be a different story. I am highly likely to take Seattle next week if I survive this one.
Regarding selling pieces, I'm going to wait until after tonight's game, as that can drastically alter value if the Jets win (though not alter much if the Jets lose).
Keep in mind that over 50% of the field still has NE left, and I have to imagine most will fire on them here. My guess is 37% of the picks this week will be on the Patriots.
One other good thing about the Pittsburgh pick is that, as Daly stated, it will have value if it wins. Not only is there little use for Pittsburgh going forward, but they will probably be grabbed by a fairly low percentage here.
Survivor Atlas predicts:
NE 34%
HOU 32%
BAL 14%
PIT 8%
ATL 4%
I think they're a bit low on NE and a bit high on HOU, but the Pitt 8% is probably roughly accurate.
https://x.com/PatrickE_Vegas/status/1989016390658109920
Ugh.
This is so tough.
However, I will say that it hasn't been 6.5 in awhile, meaning this is probably going back several days, and might not mean much.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
i have several of these types in my algo. i've noticed they are often either wrong or diverge from each other. so i wouldn't put too much stock in what they say re where the "sharps" are. you can look at tickets/money bet and usually see if there is a divergence and then follow the line movement. you know all this, just pointing out these types of tweets are little more than what to read while on the toliet.
speaking of toilets, isn't it time for you to shit or get off of it and let us know what you are going to do now that your tnf miracle fell through?
There is a Las Vegas podcaster/tout named Steve Fezzik (who won Circa survivor twice when it was smaller) who bought someone's pick a couple years ago when there was only a few weeks left and they won it all. And they spent a lot of time talking about it on the pod (RJ Bells Dream Podcast) and even had the guy they bought the pick from on their podcast.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
If/when you are ready to hedge you could look him up, and maybe even get some promotion for Pokerfraudalert.
Then again, half the threads on the first page of this forum are Jew hate, so maybe not a good idea to promote on a widely listened to podcast.