*** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

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Originally Posted by Sol

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Originally Posted by snake_in_the_ass

Shields is done. The guy can't pitch anymore.

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Not just pitch, looks like he can't throw the ball to second base anymore either. Nor can White Sox players catch a popup. zzzzz

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The damn White Sox will probably let him throw as many innings as possible knowing this game is over and not try to tire their bullpen for the next few games.

Warriors out to an energetic start. Having a guy like Iguodala to come in replacing Draymond for game such a luxury that very few teams (if any at all) have.

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Originally Posted by DJ_Chaps

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

Phillies (Eickhoff) +174 at Toronto (Dickey)
Minnesota (Nolasco) at LA Angels (Weaver) Over 9 +110

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PHILLIES GONNA GET BLASTED IN THE ASS HARD, UNLUCKY PICK THERE TODD.


TONIGHT'S PARLAYS:

06/13/2016 @ 06:40 PM MLB [956] ARI DBACKS -165

06/13/2016 @ 05:15 PM MLB [963] CLE INDIANS -129

06/13/2016 @ 04:05 PM MLB [969] TOTAL o9EV (PHI PHILLIES vrs TOR BLUE JAYS)

06/13/2016 @ 04:05 PM MLB [952] WAS NATIONALS -125




AND


6/13/2016 @ 04:10 PM MLB [953] TOTAL o8½-120 (CIN REDS vrs ATL BRAVES)

06/13/2016 @ 06:00 PM NBA Championship - Game #5 GS WARRIORS -5½-115

06/13/2016 @ 04:05 PM MLB [970] TOR BLUE JAYS -200

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Philly 7, Toronto 0

I took that UNDER 209.


of course, exactly 1 fucking point is scored in the final, what, 4 minutes?!!!


209 pts exactly.

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Originally Posted by DRK Star

I took that UNDER 209.


of course, exactly 1 fucking point is scored in the final, what, 4 minutes?!!!


209 pts exactly.

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Unreal that it even had a chance. Live it was 225.5 for awhile.

Never put yourself in a posistion to hold a ticket Vegas wants you to hold.

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Originally Posted by DRK Star

I took that UNDER 209.


of course, exactly 1 fucking point is scored in the final, what, 4 minutes?!!!


209 pts exactly.

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You got lucky cause that game was looking like the easiest over ever early on and more so after the 3rd quarter.

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Originally Posted by Daly

When I come in here and start saying to bet a side of total it's a good chance it's time to take the other side of the trade. That said I'm feeling good about the Cavs tonight.

#Cavs (+5.5) receiving 31% of spread bets. That ties for the most lopsided public betting of any #NBAFinals* game in our database.

Whenever you can take the side of Vegas where it's a deep pool of money and they aren't moving the line despite this level of lopsided action it's usually where you want to be.

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nice call! I didn't bet it, but your post helped me stay away from GS. Vegas just made huge $ tonight.
Lot of crazy high scoring MLB. Should be some interesting follow up games tomorrow.

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Originally Posted by Daly

When I come in here and start saying to bet a side of total it's a good chance it's time to take the other side of the trade. That said I'm feeling good about the Cavs tonight.

#Cavs (+5.5) receiving 31% of spread bets. That ties for the most lopsided public betting of any #NBAFinals* game in our database.

Whenever you can take the side of Vegas where it's a deep pool of money and they aren't moving the line despite this level of lopsided action it's usually where you want to be.

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Dropping knowledge all day today. Like what you're doing.

Drilling us on the fundamentals.

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Originally Posted by BeerAndPoker

I felt the Tigers might be able to hit him if he continued on pitching as he has all year (tho he could rise the the occasion) but not exactly was I expecting this. As a Tigers fan this would have been more fun for me if I didn't bet it.

"Not So Big Game James" going to give up the 10 runs himself. Good trade White Sox, especially when this team needs hitters more then they needed starting pitchers

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Define fun.

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Originally Posted by Sanlmar

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Originally Posted by BeerAndPoker

I felt the Tigers might be able to hit him if he continued on pitching as he has all year (tho he could rise the the occasion) but not exactly was I expecting this. As a Tigers fan this would have been more fun for me if I didn't bet it.

"Not So Big Game James" going to give up the 10 runs himself. Good trade White Sox, especially when this team needs hitters more then they needed starting pitchers

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Define fun.

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Very true based on that outcome.

What a crazy game that was!

I guess when you are on the wrong side of a bet whether it's a sweat that you lose or a just being way off you still lose it so it don't matter that much.

6/14

Braves -124
Rockies +100

Some random thoughts.

Cubs totals under last 17 games 12-5. I have been feeling this lately. Dabbled with a few but have always glanced at their Runs Scored this year and looked elsewhere. Oops.

Lotta strike outs. Today really brings this home. Gotta focus on this trend.

Saw VMar is hurt. Thought Bogaerts and VMar were locked in a battle for offense. Turns out - not so much. Reminded me that Theo Epstein traded VMar & Beltre to collect draft choices which has resulted in the 2011 Red Sox draft which many are beginning to call the best in history. God.

5 position players & 3 pitchers on the team now. Bogaerts, for instance, now crushing WAR and BA (everything else for that matter.) Betts, Bradley.

As time marches on Theo Epstein looks like a certified genius.
Ortiz, Millar & Schilling to win 2004.
2011 draft.
The trade with the Dodgers to get rid of salaries and crap.
Recently Arrietta and on and on.
They are saying if he wins with Cubs he will be considered the greatest exec in baseball history.

I just don't know about Cubs in playoffs. Didn't fare well against Mets playoff pitching. Cubs outing today smells familiar.

I need to work the Cubs more.

Edit:
Not for nothin but the light hitting Dodgers last 17 also 12-5 on total under.

I have been fading them but this is another ATM that requires more focus and hate.

I mean aren't the Cubs and Dodgers the inverse of the Sawks?

Sawks are great offense with shitty pitching.
Cubs/Dodgers no offense with great pitching

For a 317 page thread we have a very small tag cloud.

Just saying.

2-0 yesterday for +2.84 units, so that was nice.

For today:

Cincy (Finnegan) at Atlanta (Teheran) - Under 8 -110
Yankees (Eovaldi) at Colorado (J. De La Rosa) - Over 11.5 +110

2 and 1 yesterday. should have been 3 and 1 on the WS over but I never got my 9...

today,
cincy f5 plus cincy/atl over 8
tam, stl, laa, and SFO ML, plus SFO RL (welcome back Garza, SF will make for a rude greeting)
det/wsox over 9 (hope i am not chasing!)

Gonna take the Cubs under out for a test drive.

BET#: 496712932
STRAIGHT WAGER 06/14/16 12:33 EDT
Bet $ 165.00 to win $ 157.00 Result: Pending
Chicago Cubs J Lackey vs Washington Nationals G Gonzalez 06/14/16 19:05 EDT Under 8 (-105)

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Originally Posted by Daly

Checks Sawks lineup.

Price isn't in it

Betting over

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I think this mistaken impression that Price is an ace is where the value is. The HR hitting Orioles in Fenway against a guy who gives up the long ball.

Price's fastball ain't gonna get guys out. Instead they put it out. Price needs to figure shit out.

The Sawks bullpen is kinda rested and this is a concern but the damage will be done.

Sawks o8.5 -115

Grab it early.

Won them both, making it 4 in a row for me, with 3 being dogs.

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Originally Posted by Sanlmar

Gonna take the Cubs under out for a test drive.

BET#: 496712932
STRAIGHT WAGER 06/14/16 12:33 EDT
Bet $ 165.00 to win $ 157.00 Result: Pending
Chicago Cubs J Lackey vs Washington Nationals G Gonzalez 06/14/16 19:05 EDT Under 8 (-105)

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Originally Posted by Daly

Checks Sawks lineup.

Price isn't in it

Betting over

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I think this mistaken impression that Price is an ace is where the value is. The HR hitting Orioles in Fenway against a guy who gives up the long ball.

Price's fastball ain't gonna get guys out. Instead they put it out. Price needs to figure shit out.

The Sawks bullpen is kinda rested and this is a concern but the damage will be done.

Sawks o8.5 -115

Grab it early.

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I'm not going to try and tell you that I've put a lot of deep thought into it, I'm just betting what's working. Scoring is down in most games Price is on the hill. I think some is it is just some basic thinking by sox players. If I'm JBJ and I see Price out on the hill I don't feel the need to have to go 3-4 at the plate that night to win. If I see Clay Bucholz I know 2-4 ain't going to get it done. But like I said this isn't a psych play, keep it to what's working.

Found a local bartender who's a agent for a local book today. It's a different book then some of my others so I'll scout it out for props. Any day you can find a local out is a good day!

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Originally Posted by snake_in_the_ass

6/14

Braves -124
Rockies +100

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1-1, Rockies almost blew 12-3 lead.


6/15
Brewers +180
Braves -110
Tigers +155

Two more overs for you:

Seattle (Karns) at Tampa Bay (Smyly) - Over 8 -110
Minnesota (Duffy) at LA Angels (H. Santiago) - Over 8.5 -110

I am waiting on betting Minnesota because the lines on my books are -115 right now for that game's over, but I think it will improve in the morning.

5 and 3 yesterday so slowing down a bit, still slight profit. I needed SF to pound the Brewers and make the RL to make real $ yesterday. Too bad.

Onward
ML Win: Miami, SF, Boston, Toronto, Cincy and LAA
Overs: Miaimi/SD 8.5, Rangers/As over 8, Seattle/TB over 8

Detroit and WSox have been hitting the over hard, line at 8.5 says Sale will slow it down some. Sale's last outing not so good so I am tempted with the over again.

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Originally Posted by Daly

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Originally Posted by Sanlmar

Gonna take the Cubs under out for a test drive.

BET#: 496712932
STRAIGHT WAGER 06/14/16 12:33 EDT
Bet $ 165.00 to win $ 157.00 Result: Pending
Chicago Cubs J Lackey vs Washington Nationals G Gonzalez 06/14/16 19:05 EDT Under 8 (-105)



I think this mistaken impression that Price is an ace is where the value is. The HR hitting Orioles in Fenway against a guy who gives up the long ball.

Price's fastball ain't gonna get guys out. Instead they put it out. Price needs to figure shit out.

The Sawks bullpen is kinda rested and this is a concern but the damage will be done.

Sawks o8.5 -115

Grab it early.

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I'm not going to try and tell you that I've put a lot of deep thought into it, I'm just betting what's working. Scoring is down in most games Price is on the hill. I think some is it is just some basic thinking by sox players. If I'm JBJ and I see Price out on the hill I don't feel the need to have to go 3-4 at the plate that night to win. If I see Clay Bucholz I know 2-4 ain't going to get it done. But like I said this isn't a psych play, keep it to what's working.

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Manny Machado hits a two run blast is the 1st inning off a Price fastball and I am looking like a damn genius. Look at the wicked smaht guy.

Running against the crowd in the face of two number one starters really is the important thing. Gonna admit to a bit of hubris.

Price gave up another (solo) bomb that left Fenway park entirely. Bases loaded in second for Sox --> resulted in zip.

Price won with a fucking great change up.

I don't subscribe to the theory that players nap it out at the plate when an ace hits the mound. No one wants to strike out. It's a personal humiliation in a selfish sport. Maybe the manager does. Shaw is 1-17 and Hanley Ramirez is absolutely lost with his stance and swing. This affects pitches Ortiz gets and it snowballs.

A smartass bet that looks needless now but I am guilty of that from time to time. I fall in love with an idea and just can't leave it alone.

Gonna be a little cautious on Sawks overs for now.

Looking at the menu right now. First thing that grabs me is u9.5 EV for Det/CWS. Thinking about Charhams comment. Gotta look up VMar.

My two new binkys Dodgers & Cubs don't grab me tonight.

I am a Daly buttmunch.

I just bet for fun and hopefully a profit. I really don't watch a lot of games. As I'm out and about I listen with MLB package on Internet in the car or catch late innings when I get home. It's a way to pass the summer.

But it's a game like any other and it's fun to try to learn the edges.

I gotta say that Daly's throw away lines are usually gold. He crystallizes ideas that exist somewhere in the back of your brain in a few words. I gotta start saving them.

Even .500 works when you got dogs on the menu.

That line reads like a damn haiku. Became a bit emotional. I need a moment.

I tilt bet 1k on the Giants/Brewers under 5.5 yesterday after the third inning when score was 0-0, luckily ended up covering by 1/2 a point. I like the Tigers under too but don't really want to bet too much at under 9, factoring in the high probability that Ian Kinsler is on roids and they've been slugging hard in Detroit. Sale has been struggling for a few games but he's a proven winner over big big samples, so I think the under is still a good bet based on the "regression to the mean" argument.

I've also been meaning to export all the baseball reference and basketball reference data into my R software to do some fun statistical analysis, but first have to think about what patterns will be the most helpful in informing my degenerate sports betting habits.

Ichiro also just recorded his 4,256th hit and now just needs 22 more MLB hits to join the 3,000 hit club. I bet Pete Rose is not very impressed.

France today was the fishiest bet I've made in a while. Everyone in the world was on France today, terrible

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Originally Posted by Sol

I tilt bet 1k on the Giants/Brewers under 5.5 yesterday after the third inning when score was 0-0, luckily ended up covering by 1/2 a point. I like the Tigers under too but don't really want to bet too much at under 9, factoring in the high probability that Ian Kinsler is on roids and they've been slugging hard in Detroit. Sale has been struggling for a few games but he's a proven winner over big big samples, so I think the under is still a good bet based on the "regression to the mean" argument.

I've also been meaning to export all the baseball reference and basketball reference data into my R software to do some fun statistical analysis, but first have to think about what patterns will be the most helpful in informing my degenerate sports betting habits.

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In for 1k now that the line moved back to 9.5, used my one time yesterday so need two times

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Originally Posted by Spookygook

France today was the fishiest bet I've made in a while. Everyone in the world was on France today, terrible

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The automatic double hex gets a winner after I posted at the 88 minute or some Shit, Ill take it

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Originally Posted by Sol

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Originally Posted by Sol

I tilt bet 1k on the Giants/Brewers under 5.5 yesterday after the third inning when score was 0-0, luckily ended up covering by 1/2 a point. I like the Tigers under too but don't really want to bet too much at under 9, factoring in the high probability that Ian Kinsler is on roids and they've been slugging hard in Detroit. Sale has been struggling for a few games but he's a proven winner over big big samples, so I think the under is still a good bet based on the "regression to the mean" argument.

I've also been meaning to export all the baseball reference and basketball reference data into my R software to do some fun statistical analysis, but first have to think about what patterns will be the most helpful in informing my degenerate sports betting habits.

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In for 1k now that the line moved back to 9.5, used my one time yesterday so need two times

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Watching all day for that 9.5 which you knew was coming.

1. BET#: 496771875
STRAIGHT WAGER 06/15/16 17:14 EDT
Bet $ 330.00 to win $ 300.00 Result: Pending
Detroit Tigers M Pelfrey vs Chicago White Sox C Sale 06/15/16 20:10 EDT Under 9.5 (-110)

Brilliant bet Sol.

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Originally Posted by Sanlmar

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Originally Posted by Sol

In for 1k now that the line moved back to 9.5, used my one time yesterday so need two times

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Watching all day for that 9.5 which you knew was coming.

1. BET#: 496771875
STRAIGHT WAGER 06/15/16 17:14 EDT
Bet $ 330.00 to win $ 300.00 Result: Pending
Detroit Tigers M Pelfrey vs Chicago White Sox C Sale 06/15/16 20:10 EDT Under 9.5 (-110)

Brilliant bet Sol.

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Brilliance fueled by degeneracy

I also got over 7.5 -110 in the Seattle/TB game, line doesn't seem like it'll get better from here so it's trigger time

A fellow degen hit me with this today. Only 1R through 2 but it's still early.

Sawks 13-1-1 O/U (12-1-1 O/U scoring > 2) at night with a total ≥ 9.

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Originally Posted by Daly

A fellow degen hit me with this today. Only 1R through 2 but it's still early.

Sawks 13-1-1 O/U (12-1-1 O/U scoring > 2) at night with a total ≥ 9.

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Wright & his knuckleball. Machado & Davis were just up. They were swinging looking back at the catcher/umpire and laughing. HOF

I should be able to parse this but I'll admit I can't.

Translation please

My immediate family is in jeopardy of getting hit by a flying object Sol.

Looks at calander tomorrow, sees Price isn't pitching.....

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Originally Posted by Sanlmar

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Originally Posted by Daly

A fellow degen hit me with this today. Only 1R through 2 but it's still early.

Sawks 13-1-1 O/U (12-1-1 O/U scoring > 2) at night with a total ≥ 9.

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Wright & his knuckleball. Machado & Davis were just up. They were swinging looking back at the catcher/umpire and laughing. HOF

I should be able to parse this but I'll admit I can't.

Translation please

My immediate family is in jeopardy of getting hit by a flying object Sol.

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Lol the bet looks around breakeven going into the bottom of the 6th. Haven't really watched the game yet cuz I was busy sweating the Seattle Rays game, they've been stranding like a million baserunners every inning.

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Originally Posted by Sol

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Originally Posted by Sanlmar

Wright & his knuckleball. Machado & Davis were just up. They were swinging looking back at the catcher/umpire and laughing. HOF

I should be able to parse this but I'll admit I can't.

Translation please

My immediate family is in jeopardy of getting hit by a flying object Sol.

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Lol the bet looks around breakeven going into the bottom of the 6th. Haven't really watched the game yet cuz I was busy sweating the Seattle Rays game, they've been stranding like a million baserunners every inning.

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Siqq hold in the Tigers game. Sale pitched well against that Tigers offense. Think we got like a 16 vs dealer ace in a shitty count situation in the Mariners/Rays game, but I've never bet 1k on a single blackjack hand before. Rooting for 3 outs in the bottom of 12th so that team dice gets fresh 6 outs to work with.

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Originally Posted by Sol

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Originally Posted by Sol

Lol the bet looks around breakeven going into the bottom of the 6th. Haven't really watched the game yet cuz I was busy sweating the Seattle Rays game, they've been stranding like a million baserunners every inning.

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Siqq hold in the Tigers game. Sale pitched well against that Tigers offense. Think we got like a 16 vs dealer ace in a shitty count situation in the Mariners/Rays game, but I've never bet 1k on a single blackjack hand before. Rooting for 3 outs in the bottom of 12th so that team dice gets fresh 6 outs to work with.

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You split the 10's you got on the Det/CWS... and bet equal amounts on both games?

Lotta runs but we never expected 3-2. Admit to a little stress though seeing a player named Buck pitch to a guy named Shuck and then it's WTF. Lol, Tigers bull pen.

The deeper we go with Mariners/Rays obv the more likely a multi run implosion.

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Originally Posted by Sanlmar

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Originally Posted by Sol

Siqq hold in the Tigers game. Sale pitched well against that Tigers offense. Think we got like a 16 vs dealer ace in a shitty count situation in the Mariners/Rays game, but I've never bet 1k on a single blackjack hand before. Rooting for 3 outs in the bottom of 12th so that team dice gets fresh 6 outs to work with.

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You split the 10's you got on the Det/CWS... and bet equal amounts on both games?

Lotta runs but we never expected 3-2. Admit to a little stress though seeing a player named Buck pitch to a guy named Shuck and then it's WTF. Lol, Tigers bull pen.

The deeper we go with Mariners/Rays obv the more likely a multi run implosion.

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Lmao yeah I sometimes split 10s in vegas when I'm pounded out, even when I realize that quitting and calling up a hooker is probably the better play. But I'm inclined to say split aces looking at the LOB stats.

I did see Derek Holland scrubbing it hard with 1 out in the 4th and bet 1/2 unit on the over 7.5 @ +100, will see how it goes.

Nationals -150 tomorrow is a fine bet. Normally I wouldn't touch team that go east to west but the Nationals seem to handle it well.

Overnight total on the Sawks is 10. I admit to already punching the ticket but If I would have thought about it for more than .7 seconds id have waited till tomorrow. No way it touches 10.5 I don't think and there is a shot you can buy at 9.5 -120 at some point.