Quote:
Originally Posted by
BCR
It’s possible he wins as big, but he certainly seems less popular with older people and it’s an old state. Also he lived here last election. Watching football today, it was all Biden all day. He is spending his time in PA because he needs it and figures he’ll win Ohio or be fucked anyway. 4 is a big win in a tight election. Obama beat Romney by 3.9 in 12. It was never in doubt, but 8+ was kind of an outlier it felt given he lived here every week. I think it’s going to be way bigger turnout, so that plays with the math a bit even if you win by almost the same number of votes.
If Trump wins Ohio by 4, he is going to lose the election. In 2016, when I saw the early returns come in from the deep south states and how lopsided they were, I knew Trump was going to win. When the results come in from KY, IN and WV, if they are on par with 2016, Trump and the Senate are going to have a good night. Same with Ohio. Trump won the rustbelt because he carried Ohio by 9. He can pull them over the finish line again, and probably MN too if there is the same margin. If Ohio is 4, it means KY probably is lighter than it was in 2016. The red state margins are really a determinative factor in elections.
A smart bettor is going to analyze those KY returns right away and place bets accordingly the rest of the night.
Regardless of what happens in the rustbelt, I think it is a sure bet that FL goes Trump. For whatever reason the Hispanic vote is surging for Trump.
With all that said, I am sitting this election out. I have about $4K left in my sports gambling account. I cash out if I can get to $10K or lose it all. I am down huge in this pandemic, but I had a small condo in Florida I sold for an $90K profit so I guess its a wash, but yeah it still sucks to go on a prolonged losing streak, June was flat out awful. Reminds me how I felt in the 2007 timeframe when I was sodomized at the AC poker tables. LOL.