**OFFICIAL Donald J. Trump vs. Joseph (Joe) R. Biden Thread - 2020 Presidential Election**

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Originally Posted by Salty_Aus

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

I didn't say Shokin was a good guy. He very well may have been corrupt. That's not the point I'm making.

Why do you think Biden cared about this so much? He actually held up a billion in aid, contingent upon Shokin's removal. Highly unusual behavior.

Why do you think Hunter was hired? Do you think it was a coincidence that Hunter was hired, and Joe Biden had such influence over Ukranian matters? What about that e-mail? Are you telling me that is a coincidence, too?

They clearly bought access to Joe through Hunter, and got it. That's a big problem.

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You have clearly tried to make out like Shokin was not corrupt. You say. "Because a few people in Europe said he was corrupt? LOL"

Thats a huge understatement and perhaps disingenuous on your part.

Protesters who were on the streets calling for him to be sacked and prosecuted were shot by snipers, and Shokin refused to even investigate this properoy.

You perhaps should be admiring Biden tor taking a hard line against corruption instead of looking for fanciful conspiracy theories that fit your agends.

Bah.

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This isn't a conspiracy theory. It's an obvious connecting of dots.

1) Burisma hires Hunter so they can have access to Joe Biden.

2) Burisma gets access to Joe Biden, and tells him that they need his help to get rid of the prosecutor investigating them. They inform Biden that this prosecutor is highly suspected of corruption, and that can be the excuse to demand him being fired.

3) Joe Biden, not wanting his fuckup son to be in trouble yet again, demands they fire Shokin. He uses the corruption as the reason, but that's not the actual reason he gives a shit. But it's a good cover. He holds up $1 billion in aid until they do.

4) Shokin gets fired. Mission accomplished!!!


Even if you want to say that Shokin being fired was a good thing, the way Burisma successfully used Hunter to get him to do their bidding should be alarming to anyone thinking of voting for Biden.

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

Toaster Oven, I see you've returned here after a few-year absence, which I was actually happy about, because I'm always glad to see old-school community members come back. However, you've reduced yourself to posting a few terrible one-liners, and that's it.

You said in your red rep of me that I'm a "dumb fucking mark", in response to my last post.

Do you really believe that Biden's intense concern about that Ukranian prosecutor had nothing to do with the investigation's potential affect on his longtime-fuckup son?

If you really think that's just a coincidence, then you're right -- someone here really is a dumb fucking mark.

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he probably thinks ur a mark for falling for "russian disinformation" or something, guy is rachel maddow tier

Embedded Tweet

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

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Originally Posted by Salty_Aus

You are talking garbage!
The investigation into Burisma preceded Hunters arrival.
Shokin was a crook and your guilt by association timeline does not fit.

A few people in Europe wanted him fired hey?
The EU, the IMF, the EBRD along with many significant organisations.... along with thousands of street protestors wanted him removed.

The really hillarious thing is Shokin outright refused to investigate corruption and even snipers who killed people who were demostrating to get him removed.... but now according to Mr Druff he was the good guy who was hampered investigating Hunter Biden.

You really need to brush up on the facts before making ludicrous claims.

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I didn't say Shokin was a good guy. He very well may have been corrupt. That's not the point I'm making.

Why do you think Biden cared about this so much? He actually held up a billion in aid, contingent upon Shokin's removal. Highly unusual behavior.

Why do you think Hunter was hired? Do you think it was a coincidence that Hunter was hired, and Joe Biden had such influence over Ukranian matters? What about that e-mail? Are you telling me that is a coincidence, too?

They clearly bought access to Joe through Hunter, and got it. That's a big problem.

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Speaking of coincidences do you expect anything less from a notorious bully
who is about to be politically embarrassed in a few weeks? He lies about everything.
Most of it means nothing to anybody except him. But he can't stop.

"Fake news, hoax".

He's got em this time. Oh boy what luck just a few weeks away
Voter manipulation, the Electoral College, grandiose claims, it's not
enough. Not after four years of in your face stupidity.

"In July 2019, Trump ordered the freezing of $391 million in military aid^[48] shortly before a telephone conversation with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in which Trump asked Zelensky to initiate an investigation of the Bidens.^[49][50]

Trump falsely told Zelensky that "[Joe] Biden went around bragging that he stopped the prosecution" of his son; Joe Biden did not stop any prosecution, did not brag about doing so, and there is no evidence his son was ever under investigation.^[51]

On September 24, 2019, the United States House of Representatives initiated a formal impeachment inquiry against Trump on the grounds that he may have sought to use U.S. foreign aid and the Ukrainian government to damage Joe Biden's 2020 presidential campaign.<sup>[52][53]"

That's right wikipedia. Go ahead and post your sources Mr. Breitbart

I'm not above this

https://media2.giphy.com/media/l51J4...wIK0/giphy.gif

JOIN IN It's happenin

https://youtu.be/3GwjfUFyY6M</sup>

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

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Originally Posted by Salty_Aus

You have clearly tried to make out like Shokin was not corrupt. You say. "Because a few people in Europe said he was corrupt? LOL"

Thats a huge understatement and perhaps disingenuous on your part.

Protesters who were on the streets calling for him to be sacked and prosecuted were shot by snipers, and Shokin refused to even investigate this properoy.

You perhaps should be admiring Biden tor taking a hard line against corruption instead of looking for fanciful conspiracy theories that fit your agends.

Bah.

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This isn't a conspiracy theory. It's an obvious connecting of dots.

1) Burisma hires Hunter so they can have access to Joe Biden.

2) Burisma gets access to Joe Biden, and tells him that they need his help to get rid of the prosecutor investigating them. They inform Biden that this prosecutor is highly suspected of corruption, and that can be the excuse to demand him being fired.

3) Joe Biden, not wanting his fuckup son to be in trouble yet again, demands they fire Shokin. He uses the corruption as the reason, but that's not the actual reason he gives a shit. But it's a good cover. He holds up $1 billion in aid until they do.

4) Shokin gets fired. Mission accomplished!!!


Even if you want to say that Shokin being fired was a good thing, the way Burisma successfully used Hunter to get him to do their bidding should be alarming to anyone thinking of voting for Biden.

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What the fuck are you talking about?

Every single point you make is a blatant assumption.

You are usually quite good at connecting dots. But in this instance even your dots are nonsense.

You explain the way this happened, Salty.

All coincidental events?

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

You explain the way this happened, Salty.

All coincidental events?

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The Ukrainians obviously value under-qualified rich kids more than any other country.

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

You explain the way this happened, Salty.

All coincidental events?

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You really should be looking at the Shokin links to Dymitro Firtash and his lawyers who are Giuliani associates.
Firtash is connected to the Russian mafia and has his fingers in the Trump pie.

Put those dots together and your dots are meaningless.

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

You explain the way this happened, Salty.

All coincidental events?

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Yea the thing is Shokin wasn't doing anything about Burisma. That's likely a good start. Burisma benefited from Shokin. They don't want Shokin gone because either they already payed him off or he just sucks at his job.

For scale, 30k is enough to have Shokin killed in Ukraine, 300k is more than enough to pay him off and 30m doesn't even get you close to buying the amount of pressure he got from overseas.

It's not that long ago, but as a gentle reminder, in 2015 what happened in Ukraine mattered. It wasn't given that Russia was stopping their campaign of fuckery to Ukraine. That's why US, EU, IMF and handful of other entities meddled in otherwise inconsequential country's internal business.

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Originally Posted by VaughnP

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Originally Posted by blake

what supposedly came out (from hunter's computer that he "abandoned" at a computer repair store in delaware -- lol, ok) is that biden may have met with his son's work connection.

this is literally what every politician does every single day, all day long. they do favors for their friends and family by taking meetings, showing interest, etc.

donald trump probably does this 300 times a day and there is no one on earth that would dispute this.

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It's not fair to call this a conspiracy. Elaborate interpretations of the emails and text messages maybe, but at the very least there is much more to the story.

The bigger issue that they are hinting around at is that Biden might be the "the big guy" and "chairman" referenced in term of payments etc., this is why Giuliani went on television with a print out of a Hunter text saying that Joe takes half of their salaries. Apparently this was just the tip of the leaks.

Also, are we going to pretend like Twitter shouldn't burn for trying to censor this story?

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If this is true it is genuinely disqualifying and enough to tip the election. Apparently there is even more.


https://twitter.com/FoxNews/status/1317267502498537473

In the separate developing story from Bevan Cooney's emails, a picture is painted of Chinese access to Biden facilitated by Hunter and his associates going back to Obama's first term. Obama not wanting him to run is starting to make much more sense.




A 2014 BBC story explaining the CEC.


https://www.bbc.com/news/business-29707913

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It's very hard to imagine the top 50 CEOs in America or Europe happily getting together or going on foreign trips as a group," he adds.
The China Entrepreneur Club consists of 46 of China's top business leaders. They are joined by politicians, academics and other advisers.

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Originally Posted by VaughnP

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Originally Posted by VaughnP

It's not fair to call this a conspiracy. Elaborate interpretations of the emails and text messages maybe, but at the very least there is much more to the story.

The bigger issue that they are hinting around at is that Biden might be the "the big guy" and "chairman" referenced in term of payments etc., this is why Giuliani went on television with a print out of a Hunter text saying that Joe takes half of their salaries. Apparently this was just the tip of the leaks.

Also, are we going to pretend like Twitter shouldn't burn for trying to censor this story?

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If this is true it is genuinely disqualifying and enough to tip the election. Apparently there is even more.


https://twitter.com/FoxNews/status/1317267502498537473

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In your dreams. You are whacked
This guy not only quotes faux news
he quotes himself

https://youtu.be/L9srmft6STc

Firtash is a multi billionaire with links to guys like Semion Mogilevich. Saying he's a Russian Mafia associate is not a stretch of the imagination. More likely he's a bonafide mobster.

Firtash is represented by Joseph diGenova & Victoria Toensing who are Guiliani associates with connections, supposedly because Lev Parnas told him to employ them... and then like magic an affidavit from Shokin appears claiming he was sacked for trying to investigate Burisma and Biden. Which goes completely against what actually happened. Shokin was deeply corrupt and this was not the reason he was sacked.

But you all buy this as genuine and ignore the motives of Firtash who is on $100,000,000+ bail at the time.

If i was a conspiracy theorist I'd say Firtash did a deal with Guiliani to discredit Biden in return for assistance getting his extradition squashed. In fact I'd say this is likely and not a conspiracy theory.
After meeting with the Firtash crew even Barr wasn't stupid enough to go for it.

My dots make more sense IMHO.

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

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Originally Posted by duped_samaritan

bump

Whats your stance Druff?

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Yes, it's likely Biden had the Ukranian prosecutor fired because his son was involved with Burisma. Why do you think Biden cared about that prosecutor so much? Because a few people in Europe said he was corrupt? LOL

Biden took an intense interest in the guy because it was likely to affect Hunter. He probably talked himself into believing that the guy was corrupt anyway, so he was killing 2 birds with one stone.

It's amazing that you and others on the left don't make tis obvious connection.

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Wow. Did you always believe it or not till the last 3-4 months?

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

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Originally Posted by Salty_Aus

You are talking garbage!
The investigation into Burisma preceded Hunters arrival.
Shokin was a crook and your guilt by association timeline does not fit.

A few people in Europe wanted him fired hey?
The EU, the IMF, the EBRD along with many significant organisations.... along with thousands of street protestors wanted him removed.

The really hillarious thing is Shokin outright refused to investigate corruption and even snipers who killed people who were demostrating to get him removed.... but now according to Mr Druff he was the good guy who was hampered investigating Hunter Biden.

You really need to brush up on the facts before making ludicrous claims.

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I didn't say Shokin was a good guy. He very well may have been corrupt. That's not the point I'm making.

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You should do a little research before making any more points.

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Originally Posted by Salty_Aus

Firtash is a multi billionaire with links to guys like Semion Mogilevich. Saying he's a Russian Mafia associate is not a stretch of the imagination. More likely he's a bonafide mobster.

Firtash is represented by Joseph diGenova & Victoria Toensing who are Guiliani associates with connections, supposedly because Lev Parnas told him to employ them... and then like magic an affidavit from Shokin appears claiming he was sacked for trying to investigate Burisma and Biden. Which goes completely against what actually happened. Shokin was deeply corrupt and this was not the reason he was sacked.

But you all buy this as genuine and ignore the motives of Firtash who is on $100,000,000+ bail at the time.

If i was a conspiracy theorist I'd say Firtash did a deal with Guiliani to discredit Biden in return for assistance getting his extradition squashed. In fact I'd say this is likely and not a conspiracy theory.
After meeting with the Firtash crew even Barr wasn't stupid enough to go for it.

My dots make more sense IMHO.

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your audience lacks the intellectual and moral courage to acknowledge anything you just typed, and will at best give you a EVEN IF THATS TRUE style response where they hope to fall back on their bannon-brand gambit to somehow tar and feather a private US citizen for being a business man and a presidential candidate for [ checks notes ] doing business as well.

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Originally Posted by sonatine

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Originally Posted by Salty_Aus

Firtash is a multi billionaire with links to guys like Semion Mogilevich. Saying he's a Russian Mafia associate is not a stretch of the imagination. More likely he's a bonafide mobster.

Firtash is represented by Joseph diGenova & Victoria Toensing who are Guiliani associates with connections, supposedly because Lev Parnas told him to employ them... and then like magic an affidavit from Shokin appears claiming he was sacked for trying to investigate Burisma and Biden. Which goes completely against what actually happened. Shokin was deeply corrupt and this was not the reason he was sacked.

But you all buy this as genuine and ignore the motives of Firtash who is on $100,000,000+ bail at the time.

If i was a conspiracy theorist I'd say Firtash did a deal with Guiliani to discredit Biden in return for assistance getting his extradition squashed. In fact I'd say this is likely and not a conspiracy theory.
After meeting with the Firtash crew even Barr wasn't stupid enough to go for it.

My dots make more sense IMHO.

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your audience lacks the intellectual and moral courage to acknowledge anything you just typed, and will at best give you a EVEN IF THATS TRUE style response where they hope to fall back on their bannon-brand gambit to somehow tar and feather a private US citizen for being a business man and a presidential candidate for [ checks notes ] doing business as well.

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I'd think someone like Druff would hate being played.

Yet it appears he's still willing to consider Guiliani and associates credible. While they all spend the Firtash millions.

Wonder what Druff thinks about Parnas paying RG for the privilige of working for hm. 😀
Was it $500,000 or a million? This alone is fucking hillarious.

The one constant is RG spouting utter lies. So egregious he even conspired to make them up.

Hunter drops off laptop that ends up with RG a few weeks from the election... cool story bro.

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Originally Posted by gimmick

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

You explain the way this happened, Salty.

All coincidental events?

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Yea the thing is Shokin wasn't doing anything about Burisma. That's likely a good start. Burisma benefited from Shokin. They don't want Shokin gone because either they already payed him off or he just sucks at his job.

For scale, 30k is enough to have Shokin killed in Ukraine, 300k is more than enough to pay him off and 30m doesn't even get you close to buying the amount of pressure he got from overseas.

It's not that long ago, but as a gentle reminder, in 2015 what happened in Ukraine mattered. It wasn't given that Russia was stopping their campaign of fuckery to Ukraine. That's why US, EU, IMF and handful of other entities meddled in otherwise inconsequential country's internal business.

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So they paid millions to Hunter just to get access to Joe, got that access, and asked him NOT to get Shokin fired?

And then Joe got Shokin fired anyway? Makes loads of sense.

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Originally Posted by Salty_Aus

Firtash is a multi billionaire with links to guys like Semion Mogilevich. Saying he's a Russian Mafia associate is not a stretch of the imagination. More likely he's a bonafide mobster.

Firtash is represented by Joseph diGenova & Victoria Toensing who are Guiliani associates with connections, supposedly because Lev Parnas told him to employ them... and then like magic an affidavit from Shokin appears claiming he was sacked for trying to investigate Burisma and Biden. Which goes completely against what actually happened. Shokin was deeply corrupt and this was not the reason he was sacked.

But you all buy this as genuine and ignore the motives of Firtash who is on $100,000,000+ bail at the time.

If i was a conspiracy theorist I'd say Firtash did a deal with Guiliani to discredit Biden in return for assistance getting his extradition squashed. In fact I'd say this is likely and not a conspiracy theory.
After meeting with the Firtash crew even Barr wasn't stupid enough to go for it.

My dots make more sense IMHO.

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Except it doesn't explain why they hired Hunter, or why they wanted access to Joe.

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Salty_Aus

Firtash is a multi billionaire with links to guys like Semion Mogilevich. Saying he's a Russian Mafia associate is not a stretch of the imagination. More likely he's a bonafide mobster.

Firtash is represented by Joseph diGenova & Victoria Toensing who are Guiliani associates with connections, supposedly because Lev Parnas told him to employ them... and then like magic an affidavit from Shokin appears claiming he was sacked for trying to investigate Burisma and Biden. Which goes completely against what actually happened. Shokin was deeply corrupt and this was not the reason he was sacked.

But you all buy this as genuine and ignore the motives of Firtash who is on $100,000,000+ bail at the time.

If i was a conspiracy theorist I'd say Firtash did a deal with Guiliani to discredit Biden in return for assistance getting his extradition squashed. In fact I'd say this is likely and not a conspiracy theory.
After meeting with the Firtash crew even Barr wasn't stupid enough to go for it.

My dots make more sense IMHO.

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Except it doesn't explain why they hired Hunter, or why they wanted access to Joe.

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Hunter was perfect for the job. High profile trophy board member who fits the company narrative.
Company was already being investigated this was no secret. Trophy board member to trot out and say we are extra legit now... and of course if this gets them political influence even better.

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

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Originally Posted by gimmick

Yea the thing is Shokin wasn't doing anything about Burisma. That's likely a good start. Burisma benefited from Shokin. They don't want Shokin gone because either they already payed him off or he just sucks at his job.

For scale, 30k is enough to have Shokin killed in Ukraine, 300k is more than enough to pay him off and 30m doesn't even get you close to buying the amount of pressure he got from overseas.

It's not that long ago, but as a gentle reminder, in 2015 what happened in Ukraine mattered. It wasn't given that Russia was stopping their campaign of fuckery to Ukraine. That's why US, EU, IMF and handful of other entities meddled in otherwise inconsequential country's internal business.

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So they paid millions to Hunter just to get access to Joe, got that access, and asked him NOT to get Shokin fired?

And then Joe got Shokin fired anyway? Makes loads of sense.

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WTF are you talking about?

I give up.

And China too, apparently: https://nypost.com/2020/10/16/hunter...source-report/

Hunter gets around more than The Beach Boys.

Nothing to see here, guyz.

As many of you know I have consistently been the most accurate predictor of election outcomes on this site for years and it’s not even close (with the exception of Biden which I still think most Democrats are like wtf). You may have also noticed I have been oddly quiet on the outcome of this election. I think it’s a straight toss-up today. I will make an effort to post changes as I see them the next couple of weeks.

The polling this cycle has been borderline fraudulent and that has made it insanely difficult to figure out what is going on. Mix in maybe the largest enthusiasm gap in US History and you have a real mess on your hands. Just so everyone understands, most models have 2008/2012 turnout modeling in place. I just don’t buy that but I think we could have more potential votes than 2016.

We finally have some data that I feel like I can use to help figure out what is going on.

Election night comes down to 5 States.

The President must win Ohio and Florida and then will need to win two of AZ, MI or NC.

Ohio looks like the easiest of the bunch especially given early returns in MI (more on that in a second). Confidence level here is like 80%.

Florida has had a huge increase in ad spend this election cycle, I do think Trump will get record Latino support in Florida and win the State. I think that could be an interesting theme all night. Latinos are the largest minority group in the US, they hate Blacks and all this media coverage about BLM is driving them straight to the GOP. Confidence level here is 65%.

We finally have some early return numbers and PA and NC don’t look great for the President. Democrats are returning ballots at a higher clip than Republicans in both States, even exceeding polling numbers. To me it looks like PA may quickly be getting too far gone but NC could still surprise. PA - Biden confidence 65%. NC - Biden confidence 51%.

Arizona looks like the double whammy of Californians moving to AZ and the Senate race is going to make it extremely hard for the President to win here. He will need a late surge to win. Biden - Confidence 60%.

MI - this is the fascinating one, polls have Biden up 6-7, early voting returns have it basically dead even in Democrats and Republicans returning ballots. Presumably Democrats need to run up a big advantage in early voting to win on Election Day. This isn’t great news for Biden. I think this is 50/50 right now.

WI ditto MI but I think Trump wins here

Some data points to watch on election night.

Suburban women - how much of a swing to Biden is there?
Latinos - how much of a swing to Trump is there?
Black Men - how much of a swing to Trump is there? (Remember pre-Floyd Trump was polling 24% of Black men)

Was watching the Dodgers on the night of the town halls so I couldn't watch either.

I watched them both a few hours ago.

What a bunch of biased bullshit. Savannah Guthrie was super combative with Trump the entire time, and the "citizens" asking him questions were mostly hostile and asking tough things to him.

Biden was gladhandled by Georgie Stephanapolous, and it was mostly Democrats asking Biden friendly questions. The questions asked of Biden were mostly of the "What will you do if elected?" variety, and not anything tough regarding his positions or his past.

Anyone who watched those two town halls and believed they were handled similarly is beyond delusional. It's sad how the media is so overtly biased against Trump that they can't even put together fair debates or town halls.

I'll give Savannah credit for looking very good for being almost 49 (though I imagine she's had work done), but from jump street she was in attack dog mode against Trump.

Sad!

The ABC one for Biden was especially obnoxious because they kept having some voiceover guy quote lines from the Constitution, and the entire broadcast was done with patriotic overtones.

And then they purposely avoid asking tough questions of the candidate they're featuring, because.... well, Trump is a threat to our very existence, and it's important to stack the deck against him so he doesn't win again.

ABC and the mainstream media clearly don't give a shit about the truth or the will of the people. It's all about finding shifty ways to trick people into supporting their preferred candidate.

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

The ABC one for Biden was especially obnoxious because they kept having some voiceover guy quote lines from the Constitution, and the entire broadcast was done with patriotic overtones.

And then they purposely avoid asking tough questions of the candidate they're featuring, because.... well, Trump is a threat to our very existence, and it's important to stack the deck against him so he doesn't win again.

ABC and the mainstream media clearly don't give a shit about the truth or the will of the people. It's all about finding shifty ways to trick people into supporting their preferred candidate.

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The American Left leadership has to be some of the most self unaware people in the history of the world.

They don’t understand how their actions in the media reaffirm what Trump says about them, and make them lose ground with the middle part of the electorate.

It’s actually hilarious to watch Trump scream #FakeNews and then given all the choices they choose to actually do fake news when anything close to balanced reporting would have crushed Trump this cycle.

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Originally Posted by abrown83

As many of you know I have consistently been the most accurate predictor of election outcomes on this site for years and it’s not even close (with the exception of Biden which I still think most Democrats are like wtf). You may have also noticed I have been oddly quiet on the outcome of this election. I think it’s a straight toss-up today. I will make an effort to post changes as I see them the next couple of weeks.

The polling this cycle has been borderline fraudulent and that has made it insanely difficult to figure out what is going on. Mix in maybe the largest enthusiasm gap in US History and you have a real mess on your hands. Just so everyone understands, most models have 2008/2012 turnout modeling in place. I just don’t buy that but I think we could have more potential votes than 2016.

We finally have some data that I feel like I can use to help figure out what is going on.

Election night comes down to 5 States.

The President must win Ohio and Florida and then will need to win two of AZ, MI or NC.

Ohio looks like the easiest of the bunch especially given early returns in MI (more on that in a second). Confidence level here is like 80%.

Florida has had a huge increase in ad spend this election cycle, I do think Trump will get record Latino support in Florida and win the State. I think that could be an interesting theme all night. Latinos are the largest minority group in the US, they hate Blacks and all this media coverage about BLM is driving them straight to the GOP. Confidence level here is 65%.

We finally have some early return numbers and PA and NC don’t look great for the President. Democrats are returning ballots at a higher clip than Republicans in both States, even exceeding polling numbers. To me it looks like PA may quickly be getting too far gone but NC could still surprise. PA - Biden confidence 65%. NC - Biden confidence 51%.

Arizona looks like the double whammy of Californians moving to AZ and the Senate race is going to make it extremely hard for the President to win here. He will need a late surge to win. Biden - Confidence 60%.

MI - this is the fascinating one, polls have Biden up 6-7, early voting returns have it basically dead even in Democrats and Republicans returning ballots. Presumably Democrats need to run up a big advantage in early voting to win on Election Day. This isn’t great news for Biden. I think this is 50/50 right now.

WI ditto MI but I think Trump wins here

Some data points to watch on election night.

Suburban women - how much of a swing to Biden is there?
Latinos - how much of a swing to Trump is there?
Black Men - how much of a swing to Trump is there? (Remember pre-Floyd Trump was polling 24% of Black men)

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I agree with map with the exception of NC and OH. NC is going Trump by 2 or 3 points, and Ohio is deep red, its not in question. I truly think MI is Trump. Detroit population continues to dwindle. AZ is definitely trouble though for Republicans. They might squeeze out one more cycle but it will be blue in the next 10 years, and deep blue in 20 years. On the flip side the upper mid-west will eventually be red.

Say what you will about Trump, but he is a closer and if he has a good debate he will have an election day surge. People are getting used to the virus and anyone reasonable does not blame Trump for it. The people that blame him were never voting for him anyway.

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Originally Posted by blake

my wife and i already voted for biden in PA :)

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Originally Posted by abrown83

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Good post, but I just don’t see Nevada going to Trump. No city has been hit as hard economically by COVID than Vegas (well, maybe Honolulu). The city ain’t coming back until this shitshow is under control. Conventions are Vegas’ bread and butter. They keep those hotel rooms occupied on the weekdays. I’m not saying Biden will do a better job, but we’ve seen what the super-spreader-in-chief has done.

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Originally Posted by abrown83

As many of you know I have consistently been the most accurate predictor of election outcomes on this site for years and it’s not even close (with the exception of Biden which I still think most Democrats are like wtf). You may have also noticed I have been oddly quiet on the outcome of this election. I think it’s a straight toss-up today. I will make an effort to post changes as I see them the next couple of weeks.

The polling this cycle has been borderline fraudulent and that has made it insanely difficult to figure out what is going on. Mix in maybe the largest enthusiasm gap in US History and you have a real mess on your hands. Just so everyone understands, most models have 2008/2012 turnout modeling in place. I just don’t buy that but I think we could have more potential votes than 2016.

We finally have some data that I feel like I can use to help figure out what is going on.

Election night comes down to 5 States.

The President must win Ohio and Florida and then will need to win two of AZ, MI or NC.

Ohio looks like the easiest of the bunch especially given early returns in MI (more on that in a second). Confidence level here is like 80%.

Florida has had a huge increase in ad spend this election cycle, I do think Trump will get record Latino support in Florida and win the State. I think that could be an interesting theme all night. Latinos are the largest minority group in the US, they hate Blacks and all this media coverage about BLM is driving them straight to the GOP. Confidence level here is 65%.

We finally have some early return numbers and PA and NC don’t look great for the President. Democrats are returning ballots at a higher clip than Republicans in both States, even exceeding polling numbers. To me it looks like PA may quickly be getting too far gone but NC could still surprise. PA - Biden confidence 65%. NC - Biden confidence 51%.

Arizona looks like the double whammy of Californians moving to AZ and the Senate race is going to make it extremely hard for the President to win here. He will need a late surge to win. Biden - Confidence 60%.

MI - this is the fascinating one, polls have Biden up 6-7, early voting returns have it basically dead even in Democrats and Republicans returning ballots. Presumably Democrats need to run up a big advantage in early voting to win on Election Day. This isn’t great news for Biden. I think this is 50/50 right now.

WI ditto MI but I think Trump wins here

Some data points to watch on election night.

Suburban women - how much of a swing to Biden is there?
Latinos - how much of a swing to Trump is there?
Black Men - how much of a swing to Trump is there? (Remember pre-Floyd Trump was polling 24% of Black men)

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lmao

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Originally Posted by sonatine

your audience lacks the intellectual and moral courage to acknowledge anything you just typed, and will at best give you a EVEN IF THATS TRUE style response where they hope to fall back on their bannon-brand gambit to somehow tar and feather a private US citizen for being a business man and a presidential candidate for [ checks notes ] doing business as well.

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are referring to Trump in 2016?

abrown, if you truly believe that, go take this bet with Doug Polk and get rich. It's actually a better value than betting on Trump. Biden could win by 6% and you could still be a winner.

MI and WI both to the left of PA and yet they're tossups while PA is shaded blue? NC and AZ are both redder than FL. Red Nevada? Oh lawd

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Originally Posted by gimmick

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

You explain the way this happened, Salty.

All coincidental events?

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Yea the thing is Shokin wasn't doing anything about Burisma. That's likely a good start. Burisma benefited from Shokin. They don't want Shokin gone because either they already payed him off or he just sucks at his job.

For scale, 30k is enough to have Shokin killed in Ukraine, 300k is more than enough to pay him off and 30m doesn't even get you close to buying the amount of pressure he got from overseas.

It's not that long ago, but as a gentle reminder, in 2015 what happened in Ukraine mattered. It wasn't given that Russia was stopping their campaign of fuckery to Ukraine. That's why US, EU, IMF and handful of other entities meddled in otherwise inconsequential country's internal business.

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I think you're perfectly correct.
Burisma would have been happy with the status-quo. Shokin doing jack shit would have suited them.

Yes would have been much simpler to pay him and others off if needed.

For a $30k hit would you expect them to know the windows were bullet proof?... he would be a hard guy to kill, $30k no way. 😀

It's not even going to be close.

Biden will win both the popular and electoral vote with ease. Then Trump will cheat and try to steal the election.

26 states are controlled by Republicans.
Do the electors who actually vote for President have to vote for the one with the most votes? Nope, it's not written down. Perfect opportunity for Trump to cheat.

https://www.270towin.com/maps/WmA9w.png

Big, if true!!!

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Originally Posted by PLOL

abrown, if you truly believe that, go take this bet with Doug Polk and get rich. It's actually a better value than betting on Trump. Biden could win by 6% and you could still be a winner.

MI and WI both to the left of PA and yet they're tossups while PA is shaded blue? NC and AZ are both redder than FL. Red Nevada? Oh lawd

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PLOL I think of you as a smart man.

So what percentage of margin does California represent in the polls?

Turnout matters as much State by State as the overall make up of the State electorate.

AZ used to be red, just look at what has happened the last 4 years.

PA has increased the margin of registered Democrats by 190,000 in the last four years.

Do the work, look at up-to-date data, demographics are changing across the country you have to account for those changes constantly.

The Nevada pick is by far my most out there pick. Probably the highest chance to be wrong. It’s based on 25% unemployment with almost all of that coming from casino workers. Guess who gets the casino workers to the poll to vote Blue? The unions do, who doesn’t have any follow-up/constant email communication with those fired casino workers? The union!

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Originally Posted by abrown83

As many of you know I have consistently been the most accurate predictor of election outcomes on this site for years and it’s not even close (with the exception of Biden which I still think most Democrats are like wtf). You may have also noticed I have been oddly quiet on the outcome of this election. I think it’s a straight toss-up today. I will make an effort to post changes as I see them the next couple of weeks.

The polling this cycle has been borderline fraudulent and that has made it insanely difficult to figure out what is going on. Mix in maybe the largest enthusiasm gap in US History and you have a real mess on your hands. Just so everyone understands, most models have 2008/2012 turnout modeling in place. I just don’t buy that but I think we could have more potential votes than 2016.

We finally have some data that I feel like I can use to help figure out what is going on.

Election night comes down to 5 States.

The President must win Ohio and Florida and then will need to win two of AZ, MI or NC.

Ohio looks like the easiest of the bunch especially given early returns in MI (more on that in a second). Confidence level here is like 80%.

Florida has had a huge increase in ad spend this election cycle, I do think Trump will get record Latino support in Florida and win the State. I think that could be an interesting theme all night. Latinos are the largest minority group in the US, they hate Blacks and all this media coverage about BLM is driving them straight to the GOP. Confidence level here is 65%.

We finally have some early return numbers and PA and NC don’t look great for the President. Democrats are returning ballots at a higher clip than Republicans in both States, even exceeding polling numbers. To me it looks like PA may quickly be getting too far gone but NC could still surprise. PA - Biden confidence 65%. NC - Biden confidence 51%.

Arizona looks like the double whammy of Californians moving to AZ and the Senate race is going to make it extremely hard for the President to win here. He will need a late surge to win. Biden - Confidence 60%.

MI - this is the fascinating one, polls have Biden up 6-7, early voting returns have it basically dead even in Democrats and Republicans returning ballots. Presumably Democrats need to run up a big advantage in early voting to win on Election Day. This isn’t great news for Biden. I think this is 50/50 right now.

WI ditto MI but I think Trump wins here

Some data points to watch on election night.

Suburban women - how much of a swing to Biden is there?
Latinos - how much of a swing to Trump is there?
Black Men - how much of a swing to Trump is there? (Remember pre-Floyd Trump was polling 24% of Black men)

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You were easily the most accurate person last general election. You nailed it. All props.

You and plo are both super sharp on this stuff, which is why I’m really light on this election. I hate when two people I consider very sharp have wildly different opinions.

Here’s my feel, far less educated than either of yours, but we all see what we want to see to a degree, and you didn’t mention seniors. Imo, how wildly they have swung is huge. They are also Election Day voters largely. It makes me feel Michigan and Wisconsin are more Biden than you think and early returns aren’t as disparate as logic dictates.

Also male black voters vote way less than female black voters, and Trump is polling 4% with black women, and his numbers among black males aren’t anywhere close to what they were in a few polls early. I think Trump performs in the same 8-11 range the GOP always does. I’d be shocked at even 13%. I think he will be at 9 if I had to pick a number.

Hispanics are also unreliable voters. They never show to the degree they are projected to. Even if Trump has made inroads, that still hurts dems, but any minor shift to Trump in the Hispanic and black vote is overwhelmed by seniors being 20% a different direction than last go around. They are reliable. The few Trump positives are among the most unreliable voters.

It’s a strange election. The only thing I strongly disagree with you on is turnout. Much if what you think relies on moderate turnout.

This is the most serious business election I have ever seen. The enthusiasm gap is overrated as it’s trump v Trump and everyone I know has already voted and certainly are voting. I also know a ton of Trump supporters who were apolitical in the past, who are now enthused, so it cuts both ways. He certainly has bled off suburban women, but he’s added a lot of rural ones, so it remains to be seen.

It may be because I know so many in PA. How you feel about your governor post Covid is undervalued. I know so many who don’t hate Biden, but hate wolf, that makes me nervous. It’s why I’m always asking blake what he’s hearing because these hillbillies need matched in Blake’s neighborhood. It’s also why I think turnout is going to be huge. That’s really the only wager I feel comfortable about is turnout being high.

I certainly don’t feel like a 87% favorite like 538 says. I feel a 65/35 favorite.

I like hearing both you and plo give your thoughts. I fall somewhere in between you both as far as confidence, but if turnout is what I think, I lean his way. I just feel, for once, we have the more reliable demographics favorably on our side. People who will show. I think you’re way off on Nevada. Maybe you’re right, but I’d be shocked. Your map isn’t insane in a low turnout election. I just don’t see it being a low to average turnout election. I see the opposite, but you’ve earned my respect in the past and I’m glad you’re posting your opinions and I take them seriously.

Just a reminder, Canada is a shithole racist country where no one wants to live.

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

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Originally Posted by gimmick

Yea the thing is Shokin wasn't doing anything about Burisma. That's likely a good start. Burisma benefited from Shokin. They don't want Shokin gone because either they already payed him off or he just sucks at his job.

For scale, 30k is enough to have Shokin killed in Ukraine, 300k is more than enough to pay him off and 30m doesn't even get you close to buying the amount of pressure he got from overseas.

It's not that long ago, but as a gentle reminder, in 2015 what happened in Ukraine mattered. It wasn't given that Russia was stopping their campaign of fuckery to Ukraine. That's why US, EU, IMF and handful of other entities meddled in otherwise inconsequential country's internal business.

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So they paid millions to Hunter just to get access to Joe, got that access, and asked him NOT to get Shokin fired?

And then Joe got Shokin fired anyway? Makes loads of sense.

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They might care one way or the other, but paying 50k a month to Hunter isn't enough to sway EU,IMF or World Bank. 50k is nothing to them. There was vested interest from too many parties.

For instance look into 23 million that UK froze that belonged to owner of Burisma. They made a bid deal about doing stuff to tackle corruption and the end result was that they had to release the funds. Not only lack of evidence from Ukraine, but their prosecutors claimed he wasn't even investigated.

When you make people look bad, someone has to pay.

Oh and IMF was threatening to hold back 40b.

I can't wait to see what kind of shit show Florida is going to be in the 2020 Presidential election.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RAEECjfWKPE