this announcer is basically terrible.
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this announcer is basically terrible.
ball game
gg PFA
they arent mentioning the prop bets but seriously folks ivey has had bigger scores than this riding on a single craps roll.
:gay
UFC New Zealand on right now:
http://www.vipboxam.co/boxing/234256...am-online.html
Lol are you listening or is it on mute.. It's been mention Atleast 3 times in the last 30 mins been watchingQuote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
thinking i would spend more than 5 minutes watching poker?
take a lap.
lol fucking donks better against the GOAT
:kermit
Couldn't hear most of the online stream.
They need to fix the audio, sounds worst that Dan Druff's radio show.
Daniel Negreanu must be really happy right now.
*cant breathe..... CALL 911*
lock and ship
gg
:noose:popcornQuote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Maybe I will make an offer to Daniel that I will attend Choice Center if he pays for it and forgives our $7500 debt to him.
Ask him if you can keep the money, but dole half of it out as the 'Daniel Negraneu PFA Freeroll' over a number of weeks.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Pretty pathetic to see a group of people collectively forfeit someone a bracelet.
Haralabos Voulgaris @haralabob · 23m
That Ivey and @RealKidPoker to win a bracelet bet at even money was straight up stealing.
Haralabos Voulgaris @haralabob 2m
I said right price was -200 or so RT @chinamaniac: @haralabob Did you calculate odds on it and bet it ? or just monday morning Qbing?
Would love to see these calculations, because that makes zero sense to me.Quote:
Originally Posted by chinamaniac
I think he is giving Ivey/Negreanu too much credit.
Keep in mind that we ended up losing on a $1500 event with almost 500 entries. Losing this way was actually kind of a fluke. If we were going to lose, I was almost sure it would be in one of the events I marked "blue" or "purple" (i.e. field of less than 200).
With that said, obviously Haralabob is an expert at figuring out betting odds, so I won't dismiss what he's saying.
He has their edge over the field way higher than we did.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan DruffWould love to see these calculations, because that makes zero sense to me.Quote:
Originally Posted by chinamaniac
I think he is giving Ivey/Negreanu too much credit.
Keep in mind that we ended up losing on a $1500 event with almost 500 entries. Losing this way was actually kind of a fluke. If we were going to lose, I was almost sure it would be in one of the events I marked "blue" or "purple" (i.e. field of less than 200).
With that said, obviously Haralabob is an expert at figuring out betting odds, so I won't dismiss what he's saying.
dieIveydie coming soon!
Ivey had been playing the 50k when this started, I didn't even know he was in this till day 2, The fucking enter whenever you want rule is what cost us, This rule is bullshit, Should be closed 2 hours after it starts. This allows them to enter up to 7 hours late with a short stack and fire away and if they win a few pots which are big at this point then they are right at the top of the chips counts, DN did this a few timesQuote:
Originally Posted by Dan DruffredQuote:
Originally Posted by yaahello
Not even one of the ones I was really worried about, to be honest.
Oh you think?Quote:
Originally Posted by chinamaniac
Seriously what a dickhead thing to say.
Where was all of this -200 talk and "straight up stealing" when we were looking at the One Drop and the $10K Stud 8 left for big tournaments.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan DruffWould love to see these calculations, because that makes zero sense to me.Quote:
Originally Posted by chinamaniac
I think he is giving Ivey/Negreanu too much credit.
Keep in mind that we ended up losing on a $1500 event with almost 500 entries. Losing this way was actually kind of a fluke. If we were going to lose, I was almost sure it would be in one of the events I marked "blue" or "purple" (i.e. field of less than 200).
With that said, obviously Haralabob is an expert at figuring out betting odds, so I won't dismiss what he's saying.
http://pokerfraudalert.com/forum/sho...l=1#post241224
Not only is DN having an amazing WSOP, but his assistant is chipleader in the women's event.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sidewinder
Maybe you are the one full of shit?Quote:
Originally Posted by JimmyG_415
https://twitter.com/haralabob/status/466401536051249152
http://pokerfraudalert.com/forum/att...7&d=1403967169
Quote:
Originally Posted by DJ_Chaps
4th post in this thread. I am your new wormhole.
not gonna lie, took great pleasure in ivey winning this
TAKE IT DOWN
I came here to edit my post to say "I might have read it wrong, but"........." in place of the "he is full of shit" part.Quote:
Originally Posted by Crowe DiddlyMaybe you are the one full of shit?Quote:
Originally Posted by JimmyG_415
https://twitter.com/haralabob/status/466401536051249152
http://pokerfraudalert.com/forum/att...7&d=1403967169
That is funny, I was totally off.
I couldn't find the tweet before I posted, so I must've assumed he was betting the no, I mean seriously, how could you possibly come up w-2.50 that they would win one?
Fucking guy is impressive.
TOOK IT DOWNQuote:
Originally Posted by 4Dragons
Then while this is going on only a few days before the One Drop, the Bellagio throws a $100K that draws 85 people. 4 way chop at the end- Dan Smith $2,044,766, Jason Mercier $1,622181 Tom Marchese $1,465,451 and Jason Somerville $1,327,352. Expected to be the third highest prize pool of the summer including the WSOP.
I think Druff ignored or underestimated the "closing factor". Remember the bet was not about EV, but bracelets and the two are not the same.
The most important factor to consider is - given X number of final tables, how effective is the player relative to the field at closing. There are many players who make final tables with relative ease that can't finish and others who seem very good at it. Ivey, by track record, is very good at it.
A low buy in 500-player 8-game tournament is right in Ivey's wheelhouse as many of the players will totally suck at several games and almost none will be as well rounded. Plus you can expect a relatively soft final table because of the low buy in and because many of the good players will have been busy with the 50K and 10K limit holdem.
Mercier won with TT vs Smith's AA with 5 left. Otherwise hr is out in 5th for 600kQuote:
Originally Posted by shortbuspoker
1 million dollar perfect timing to lay a beat down. Smith did still get the most so he must have had a food chip lead.
Also sucks for Doug Polk who busted 5th
Quote:
Originally Posted by JimmyG_415I came here to edit my post to say "I might have read it wrong, but"........." in place of the "he is full of shit" part.Quote:
Originally Posted by Crowe Diddly
That is funny, I was totally off.
I couldn't find the tweet before I posted, so I must've assumed he was betting the no, I mean seriously, how could you possibly come up w-2.50 that they would win one?
Fucking guy is impressive.
About 70 events... with a thousand random people in each, .1% you win one.. * 70 = 7% chance of winning... * 2 people = 14% chance strictly based on math.
So if you assume Ivey and DN are 15x better prepared to win a bracelet than the average poker herb, right there you have -210 odds for a bink.
HV put them at just over 15x, obv.
And yes some of the events run in parallel but also some of the events have only 500 people, so on, so feel like the math proofs out to the -250 range well enough.
You have to balance that against the rumour that Ivey was going to play more cash and less tournaments as WSOP went on.Quote:
Originally Posted by blueodum
Probably the only plus side from this, EM2 was betting against Ivey only, so he's in the same boat as you.
Except some events have 100 people, hence why averaging is bad idea here. You have to look at events individually.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatineQuote:
Originally Posted by JimmyG_415
About 70 events... with a thousand random people in each, .1% you win one.. * 70 = 7% chance of winning... * 2 people = 14% chance strictly based on math.
So if you assume Ivey and DN are 15x better prepared to win a bracelet than the average poker herb, right there you have -210 odds for a bink.
HV put them at just over 15x, obv.
Druff did a good job breaking this down in other thread explaining that really only a few events mattered (low entry). The big question was trying to calculate Ivey and Daniel's ROI. All they really needed was to be 2-3 times (ROI 100-200) to make it an easy profitable bet for them. If they were 15x more likely this bet is like -1000 for them.
Druff had been pinning them around 30-50% ROI I think. Hence why he took the bet