What’s up with Cle line San? I get Baltimore is good, but LHP having off year, in Cle, I’d think we’d be -140 instead of -115. Am I missing something obvious?
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What’s up with Cle line San? I get Baltimore is good, but LHP having off year, in Cle, I’d think we’d be -140 instead of -115. Am I missing something obvious?
Guards vs LHP last 15~30 days bottom 10 team. Maybe O’s Roger’s is undervalued. Guards ain’t killing it at home either.Quote:
Originally Posted by BCR
Nice sched advantage for Guards though.
O’s Kimbrel will be out today. You are Kimbrel watcher? Gawd he’s an adventure every time he leaves the pen. Load up bases in the 9th. True adventure
I’m off the sides
I did HR small for entertainment.
Satander +310
JRam +340
Everyone else will be on Gunner
They’ve been bad against anything last month, but beat a good leftie last week. They go as Kwan and JRam go. Kwan struggling. I think Jose has figured it out. Like Fry and Noel against this kid. Maybe this Lane kid has a good start. Day off after 12 straight.Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarGuards vs LHP last 15~30 days bottom 10 team. Maybe O’s Roger’s is undervalued. Guards ain’t killing it at home either.Quote:
Originally Posted by BCR
Nice sched advantage for Guards.
O’s Kimbrel will be out today. You are Kimbrel watcher? Gawd he’s an adventure every time he leaves the pen. Load up bases in the 9th. True adventure
I’m off the sides
I did small for entertainment.
Satander +310
JRam +340
Everyone else will be on Gunner
I like team at -115. I’m in. Maybe dumb, but I think this is value.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarGuards vs LHP last 15~30 days bottom 10 team. Maybe O’s Roger’s is undervalued. Guards ain’t killing it at home either.Quote:
Originally Posted by BCR
Nice sched advantage for Guards though.
O’s Kimbrel will be out today. You are Kimbrel watcher? Gawd he’s an adventure every time he leaves the pen. Load up bases in the 9th. True adventure
I’m off the sides
I did HR small for entertainment.
Satander +310
JRam +340
Everyone else will be on Gunner
Even small is nice for effective +650. Nailed both props. Fry showed. New kid looked good. Ramírez. Kwan. We actually sound like we know what we are talking about tonight.Quote:
Originally Posted by BCRThey’ve been bad against anything last month, but beat a good leftie last week. They go as Kwan and JRam go. Kwan struggling. I think Jose has figured it out. Like Fry and Noel against this kid. Maybe this Lane kid has a good start. Day off after 12 straight.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
I like team at -115. I’m in. Maybe dumb, but I think this is value.
Well played sir.Quote:
Originally Posted by BCRThey’ve been bad against anything last month, but beat a good leftie last week. They go as Kwan and JRam go. Kwan struggling. I think Jose has figured it out. Like Fry and Noel against this kid. Maybe this Lane kid has a good start. Day off after 12 straight.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
I like team at -115. ✅ I’m in. Maybe dumb, but I think this is value.
They are a machine
Carassco tmrw night. Might be profitable to blanket first 4 in Balt lineup for HR props tmrw
Pitching does not line up for rest of series. They needed tonight
Dodgers @ Oakland +136
Oakland top wRC+ July. Let’s keep this confidential.
When DK summons the courage to offer BTTS lines I’m gonna pounce. I’ll use the BTTS to fund my OAK +136 (hopefully more than +136)
Trout out for the year after re-tearing his meniscus. Sad. Still a guaranteed HOF easy, but damn. Even if he can pull off a few more healthy seasons, he is stuck on the dumpster fire Angels.
Fun fact, since the start of 2021 until right now, Byron Buxton (always hurt) has played in 320 games, Trout 263.
I care not a wit about the Hall of Fame. Those that do I hold in very low esteem. Don’t be that guy.Quote:
Originally Posted by gut
He will be the subject of an interesting documentary on Netflix and that will be that.
Am I crazy to attempt to catch the Dodgers in Oakland (in person) this weekend?
I might just go do that. Don't laugh.
You can probably sit in the dugout for $35 for you and Ben.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
For $59.99 you get two seats in the dugout and Ben can take batting practice with the team.
Amazingly the tickets are NOT cheap!Quote:
Originally Posted by BCRYou can probably sit in the dugout for $35 for you and Ben.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
For $59.99 you get two seats in the dugout and Ben can take batting practice with the team.
Maybe because the greedy owner is money grabbing at the end, and maybe because it's the Dodgers in town.
Anyway, I learned a lot about the stadium.
On the 2nd and 3rd deck, you do NOT want first three rows, because they have a walkway IN FRONT of the seats there! Can you believe this? What a dumb design. Also, the railing is laughably high, so you never want to sit right behind the railing, unless you're as tall as the average NBA center.
And if you want a good laugh, read the reviews of all the hotels in the greater Oakland area. And by "greater", I mean within a 25 mile radius. Let's just say "catalytic converter" and "car theft" are common keywords in almost every hotel's review.
The Bay Area really has been destroyed.
Granted, i have never been there. But what I have read is that you can buy whatever cheapo seat at the OCo and go sit wherever.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan DruffAmazingly the tickets are NOT cheap!Quote:
Originally Posted by BCR
Maybe because the greedy owner is money grabbing at the end, and maybe because it's the Dodgers in town.
Anyway, I learned a lot about the stadium.
On the 2nd and 3rd deck, you do NOT want first three rows, because they have a walkway IN FRONT of the seats there! Can you believe this? What a dumb design. Also, the railing is laughably high, so you never want to sit right behind the railing, unless you're as tall as the average NBA center.
And if you want a good laugh, read the reviews of all the hotels in the greater Oakland area. And by "greater", I mean within a 25 mile radius. Let's just say "catalytic converter" and "car theft" are common keywords in almost every hotel's review.
The Bay Area really has been destroyed.
The Guardians (1948) & Orioles (1983) have had a longer drought than the Dodgers (1988)
Kinda snuck up on me there.
The year my father was born. He was in high school last time for the Browns.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
All kinds of nonsense written about about the Jack Flaherty trade to save greater Los Angeles from lynching Fraudman for another fail deadline.
Last time Flaherty faced the best offense in MLB he allowed 6 runs. April 7th 2024.
Flaherty HAS been pretty damn good last 60 days but I have to take the value the ploppys give me.
Flaherty was a SoCal kid who pitched with Giolito & Fried in high school. That was over a decade ago but I always loved that story. So we have a homecoming of sorts.
OAK F5 TT o1.5 -105
OAK last 10 @ home 7-3 ROI 41%
LAD last 10 away 3-7 ROI -43%
btw Ohtani sweet Jesus last night. Reminds me of the mega but futile home runs he hit for Anaheim. Let Buehler be a cautionary tale about Dodger hope and 2nd tommy johns in that organization. If Ohtani is so great that he survives Mark Prior and overcomes his 2nd operation I will set up a small alter in my game room
I’ve been riding this for days. Left $ on table with not betting HR props with him and just +105 type wins. Just total bases. So this is a bet where I’m just riding out the streak. He’s usually the guy who still gets hits off good pitchers and he’s facing one today and he’s just making such solid contact. He’s swinging for the fences on every pitch with 5 HRs in last 5 games, but due for hitting a couple doubles and the price is right and I’m not going to jump on HR prop after missing the boat.
Single
@
+125
Open
Aug 4 • 2024 At 11:51:01 AM
Ticket ID: 7699253442
Total Bases Recorded by the Player - Including Extra Innings (Listed player must be in starting lineup for bets to stand): Ramírez, José - Over 1.5
BAL Orioles @ CLE Guardians
my gay illegal offshore doesnt have that giveeeeeeeeeeeee me money please with a normal bet
Everything is such long odds. I legit thought about Twins -2.5, but that’s just crazy talk.
Be happy your book doesn’t offer it. Jose is 0-8 lifetime against pitcher. I’m just riding it out because he’s been so hot that he’s due or will take relief pitcher deep. But it isn’t smart.
Twins 7-0 in 2nd. Not such crazy talk I guess. Should have went with gut, but 2.5 at home is hard to pull trigger on.
Jose getting me there on two infield singles just like I drew it up.
I'm watching today and its basically your typical Twins anxiety experience. Lewis with another homer, but I get nervous when he has to do....anything with movement. Buxton made a nice jumping catch at the wall to save a couple runs in the 6th, of course he's laying on the ground after for too long and he gets pulled from the game as a precaution.Quote:
Originally Posted by BCR
I imagine this is what owning a fancy sports car is like. Brief moments of pleasure before something breaks. Usually that analogy is only used for a player, and not a whole team.
4 games in 3 days next weekend BCR. Chance for the Tribe to put us away for good.
Yeah they have 2 four game series left. I’d take a split in that one in Minny. Bibee I believe is due back, but dealing with hip issue, so who knows how effective he is?Quote:
Originally Posted by gutI'm watching today and its basically your typical Twins anxiety experience. Lewis with another homer, but I get nervous when he has to do....anything with movement. Buxton made a nice jumping catch at the wall to save a couple runs in the 6th, of course he's laying on the ground after for too long and he gets pulled from the game as a precaution.Quote:
Originally Posted by BCR
I imagine this is what owning a fancy sports car is like. Brief moments of pleasure before something breaks. Usually that analogy is only used for a player, and not a whole team.
4 games in 3 days next weekend BCR. Chance for the Tribe to put us away for good.
Sweep one way or the other and Sans Twins ticket becomes super EV or worthless. About to be 4.5 again barring bullpen meltdowns
That -2.5 would have held, as much as the Twins bullpen tried to make it competitive. I think the Twins just ruined this Steven Wilson (reliever sox) kids pro career this weekend. i guess the Royals started it before us but damn:Quote:
Originally Posted by BCRYeah they have 2 four game series left. I’d take a split in that one in Minny. Bibee I believe is due back, but dealing with hip issue, so who knows how effective he is?Quote:
Originally Posted by gut
Sweep one way or the other and Sans Twins ticket becomes super EV or worthless. About to be 4.5 again barring bullpen meltdowns
He issued a bases loaded walk to our #9 hitter. Vazquez hasnt been a threat at the plate since 2020. Just groove him fastballs and he'll foul off half of them. He's a good catcher still but really any opposing pitcher should see him as "time to slow down the pitch count"
Its funny and kinda sad to watch a pitcher so shattered that he's dancing around a nothing hitter with the bases loaded.
Trip report seeing the Dodgers play in Oakland today: https://pokerfraudalert.com/forum/sh...o-Oakland-ever
One year since the Tim Anderson-José Ramírez fight.
I cannot wait for playoffs. This regular nonsense is getting tedious
Freeman is back for Dodgers
I doubt Freddie Freeman was taking live BP this past week
Freeman Ohtani either to hit HR NO & Sawks KCR BTTS 2+ F7 parlay for +135 (DK)
Game is lined 7.5. I’ll fade the HRs like the parlay streets are paved with gold. Bryce Harper is no prize either recently tbf
Well, I'm not the world's most physical guy
But when she squeezed me tight she nearly broke my spine
Oh my Nola. ..
N-O-L-A Nola
Fun game
Jose over 1.5 bases +108. I’m betting till it loses.
Double in first AB works
Two run line bets tonight.
SF -1.5 +133
Baltimore -1.5 +105
Baltimore lineup has hit Bassitt very well in small samples.
SF is just riding Birdsong which has worked well last few outings.
Storms rolling heavy through here.
Might play Guardians live, but with storms and tornado warnings, didn’t want to get caught up. Rodriguez has pitched well against Cle in past, but no rehab starts after being out 9 months is something to ponder.
Baseball trailblazer Billy Bean, who dedicated life to inclusion, dies at 60
Leukemia
The man who sparked moneyball metrics, Bill James, is still kicking
My buddy’s older brother died of acute myeloid leukemia last year. Also exactly 60. I wasn’t that familiar with that cancer. When I looked it up, nasty aggressive fucker.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Well the kid fell apart quickly and blew a 4 run lead and now losing. I’m about to start hitting the cash out button blowing 2 6 run leads in my last 2 losses and now this one going to shit. Hopefully SF can pile some into the bulllen as neither SP is going deep
Obligatory:Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
:laterfag
Man both those bets crashed and burned. We move on. I only care when my greed cost me a 4-3 win when I bet RL. Outright losses sting less and neither was close.
Lots of Cease K props went up in flames last night. It was glaringly obvious the Pirates/Padres was going to be delayed after an inning or two with a wall of thunderstorms heading in that couldn’t miss them and they decided to start the game anyway and both starters got burnt. I never thought they would start it or I’d have fired under props on both starters as it had just hit me and I knew it was a 90 minute to 2 hour delay minimum.
Tribe double header today.
Was cheering for your Twins last night gut for Skenes ROY ticket purposes. Double kick to the balls. What’s the status if that bet atm? My book doesn’t have updated ROY odds. Or at least I don’t think they are updated as Skenes is -5000? One tweak and they shut him down and our bet goes up in smoke.
I’ve won this like 5 days in a row so I can’t quit it, but scary in double header. They happen to get a lead or are losing badly and he’s sitting 1/3 with a single, I could easily lose an AB to rest.
Single
@
+104
Open
Aug 7 • 2024 At 12:10:42 PM
Ticket ID: 7711679422
Total Bases Recorded by the Player - Including Extra Innings (Listed player must be in starting lineup for bets to stand): Ramírez, José - Over 1.5
ARI Diamondbacks @ CLE Guardians
Don’t look now but there’s a rattlesnake train coming up the tracks of the NL West and NL in general. 11 of 13 games won. 4 out of the NL West and could be 3 by the end of the day. 4th best record in NL as well. After a shit start the Dbacks are on a tear kicking ass and taking names despite their closer getting the Yips in fact had Sewald not blown those 4 saves almost in a row they would be tied with LA atop the division right now.
Here’s a fun one
Bosox TT F5 o1.5 & KCR ML parlay +750
Boston bullpen is cooked.
Boston is #1 vs LHP recently
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
DK has Merrill at +1400 and Imanaga at +2000. Only 2 other realistic options unless Busch goes on a tear. I did small hedges with each.Quote:
Originally Posted by BCR
Pirates barely hanging in the periphery of the wild card race. Skenes could make 10 more starts. If they fall out of it, I don't think they would shut him completely down, they might slow him down though....extra days off/try to get him only starting at home.
Assuming everyone stays healthy, Skenes would really have to fall off a cliff to lose pole position. He has the hype, started the all-star game....read an article yesterday where the writer was pondering if he could win cy young lol.
What concerns me is wondering how many cranky traditional voter types might prefer a Merrill (2 HR's yesterday) if he finishes at .285 with a 20/20 and say 85 rbi's to boot. If the Pirates keep blowing Skenes starts, and his final w-l record is like 9-3, do they go the other way? Everyone on this thread knows pitcher wins is a bs stat that is behind the times now, but who knows who is voting.
EDIT: Just saw Skenes actually in 2nd posittion for cy young also lol. Sale +120, Skenes +200.
Braves are cooked. That is all.