*** Official Political Wagering Thread ***

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Originally Posted by Sanlmar

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Originally Posted by Daly

To be fair PLOP had a TON going. I had a bunch of car payments going, he had the whole Car. I wouldn’t have been saying much either.

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I need to be crystal clear. I empathized and sympathized completely. I was a little distraught too.

PLOL sharing his political wagering while remaining apolitical was a gift. StarSpangledWagering was a treat. The world of predictit. He didn’t owe us anything.

Most of us are all too familiar with that sickening feeling.

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While I completely disagree with PLOL politically, I never rejoice in anyone's gambling losses. I still have not added up my horseracing losses from April-July, suffice to say it is north of $40K, likely much more but I refuse to add it up, it's still an awful feeling. So while PLOL is very smarmy for sure, I never root for anyone to lose money. Now, I never want big dick to win money but I would not root for him to lose either.

took a shot on GA...got TRUMP at 45c when it was trading on betfair at -250...

still trading around there while betfair has moved it down to trump -150...

love this value on predictit...

Congrats to PLOL for the diligent research and BACKING UP THE MOTHERFUCKING TRUCK

Serious question, when do I pop this bottle of champagne? Now? When the networks call it? When Trump actually concedes? When PredictIt settles the contracts?

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Originally Posted by PLOL

Serious question, when do I pop this bottle of champagne? Now? When the networks call it? When Trump actually concedes? When PredictIt settles the contracts?

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I’m not celebrating until I’m paid. That’s just me

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Originally Posted by PLOL

Serious question, when do I pop this bottle of champagne? Now? When the networks call it? When Trump actually concedes? When PredictIt settles the contracts?

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I’m feeling very comfortable with the fact that I have $$ coming my way.


I’m not feeling comfortable with the timing of when I’m expecting to get it.

When are we gonna get paid from the offshore books?

god, I want to stop following this shit


I’m not holding my breath. I set the line at Weds.

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Originally Posted by Sanlmar

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Agreed. People are betting on "Who will win the election". Not "Will the president admit that he lost"

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Originally Posted by Sanlmar

When are we gonna get paid from the offshore books?

god, I want to stop following this shit


I’m not holding my breath. I set the line at Weds.

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If Trump pursues a recount/lawsuit strategy, I wouldn't expect it until he exhausts all his options and electors vote in December. If he concedes, then you should get it sooner.

The fact that sportsbooks slow-settle is the reason I rarely bet political futures with them. At least with Predictit you can bail out at 95-99c on the dollar if you get impatient.

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

The fact that sportsbooks slow-settle is the reason I rarely bet political futures with them. At least with Predictit you can bail out at 95-99c on the dollar if you get impatient.

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This is why I didn’t bet on this election.

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Originally Posted by jsearles22

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Originally Posted by PLOL

Serious question, when do I pop this bottle of champagne? Now? When the networks call it? When Trump actually concedes? When PredictIt settles the contracts?

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I’m not celebrating until I’m paid. That’s just me

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I heard Bookmaker isnt paying this out until Jan. Fuck that watch all the back lash.

I got paid by one book for my pa bet not the prez yet??

Makes no sense

My one book paid States not the Prez yet

It states at most of these books if the AP calls it then its official?

If they were smart they put all the money in by tomorrow morning so all the degens will lose it on the NFL.

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

The fact that sportsbooks slow-settle is the reason I rarely bet political futures with them. At least with Predictit you can bail out at 95-99c on the dollar if you get impatient.

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This is one situation I’m with the books. This isn’t a “slow settle”.

This election is still be challenged and is going to court. What happens when they pay out everyone and the Supreme Court comes in and Trumps re-elected, however unlikely?

If you bet Trump you going to live with the explanation that we already paid Biden sorry?

No chance you would live with that, nor would I.

I agree with Daly. It's totally appropriate to wait to settle the big markets. Though you can settle markets like Minnesota, New Hampshire, Ohio, Texas, etc, which aren't in dispute. I got mega-screwed in 2012 by betting on Rick Santorum in the Iowa Caucus. The results initially showed Mitt Romney up by a small handful of votes. I asked Intrade not to settle yet because it was so close, but they snap-settled the contracts and closed the market. Later on they realized they made a mistake and the Iowa DNC reversed the results and Santorum was pronounced the winner. By that point it was too late and InTrade couldn't reverse the trades. All the Santorum betters got a big FU.

Here's the relevant upcoming dates.

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Electoral College electors in each state don’t vote until Dec. 14. The electors’ votes typically align with the popular vote in each state. But not all states require the votes cast by electors to mirror the popular vote. Certificates recording the electoral vote results in each state must be received by the president of the Senate and the archivist no later than Dec. 23.

The official results of the electoral votes are sent to the new elected Congress, which is set to meet in a joint session on Jan. 6, 2021, and announce the results.

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At this point you can make money on PredictIt by predicting the past. We've reached the point where it's fiscally irresponsible to have cash and not be betting on this.

house dems 226-229 is sweetening...trading at 26...

is this even possible?

Trump to win the popular vote trading at 11%. Lol. It's a market that should already be settled at 0 and people are paying 11 cents for it.

I had 1000 "NO" shares on Trump pardoning himself that I paid 65 cents for. I'm dumping at 73 cents now. He's getting way too erratic for me to hold to expiry. No longer like my side. I don't think he can legally pardon himself, but I also don't think he cares what is legal.