*** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

Oh make no mistake, Druff, I am not behind the Red Sox at all. I sunk my entire sportsbook on the Red Sox under 87 Wins. You cannot win without pitching. I am not even sure Price is gonna be all that every 5 days. This team was waaaay overvalued by everyone.

03/28/2016 - ONLINE at 01:39 PM
[Ticket #: 253663019] STRAIGHT BET
10/03/2016 @ 11:00 PM
MLB Regular Season Wins
[14308] TOTAL u87-105 (BOS RED SOX vrs BOS RED SOX)
( ACTION ) RISKING 2000.00 TO WIN 1904.76

Daly is right about these overs. Buccholz is my binkie. Toronto and Baltimore have similar issues with pitching. They trotted out their #4 and this kid really hasn't pitched in MLB to speak of - much less Red Sox offense.

04/12/2016 - ONLINE at 02:56 PM
[Ticket #: 255841329] STRAIGHT BET
04/12/2016 @ 04:20 PM
MLB
[965] TOTAL o9EV (BAL ORIOLES vrs BOS RED SOX)
( M WRIGHT -R / C BUCHHOLZ -R ) RISKING 150.00 TO WIN 150.00

This was almost too good to be true. You wanna give me +148 on a team that just beat the Sox the night before. Who is fucking 6-0????

Even if I didn't believe I would have to take this just on principle.

04/12/2016 - ONLINE at 02:57 PM
[Ticket #: 255841530] STRAIGHT BET
04/12/2016 @ 04:20 PM
MLB
[965] BAL ORIOLES +148
( ACTION ) RISKING 100.00 TO WIN 148.00

You know better than anyone the nature of baseball wagering. Its a volume business. Just grinding small wins and rebuilding after my season long investment - but I am running pretty good lately.

Edit: Red Sox worst ERA in American League. Just got worse. That's hard to do with that payroll. Hammer that shit Daly

My semi educated opinion is if you blind bet the over in every Sox and Blue Jays game you would end up in the black this year.... Assuming they don't start posting 10's every night.

Dodgers/Dbacks tonight:

Rubby De La Rosa versus Alex Wood

Two crap pitchers who have looked bad this year (both spring and early season)

Over 7.5 -120

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Dan Druff

Dodgers/Dbacks tonight:

Rubby De La Rosa versus Alex Wood

Two crap pitchers who have looked bad this year (both spring and early season)

Over 7.5 -120

---

I was looking up Dodgers Wood. I pretty much quit when I saw his 1yr minimum salary. All you need to know. Mix in DBacks Runs scored and this looks good.

I know the Dodgers are suffering some injuries but I'll run with you on this one. Looks good.

I am adding Orioles v Red Sox over 8.5 -120 Dropped from 9
Machine gun Kelly didn't make it out of the 2nd inning last time out. Wild thing.

Curry going nuts in the first quarter.

You can pretty much count this one for GS. They're fortunate their final game is against an injury-riddled team AND at home.

In the meantime, Kobe playing his final game. He's taking a ton of shots, as expected. He's had a few vintage Kobe moments, but also several embarrassing bricks. Utah got eliminated earlier when Houston won, so this game is meaningless.

I should have looked at the Kobe points prop bet cause you knew they were giving him the ball and saying score as much as you can it's your night.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by BeerAndPoker

I should have looked at the Kobe points prop bet cause you knew they were giving him the ball and saying score as much as you can it's your night.

---

I looked and it was 24 early in the day. I intended to bet it. By time I got online last night it was 25.5; I changed my mind. :baddecision

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by jsearles22

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by BeerAndPoker

I should have looked at the Kobe points prop bet cause you knew they were giving him the ball and saying score as much as you can it's your night.

---

I looked and it was 24 early in the day. I intended to bet it. By time I got online last night it was 25.5; I changed my mind. :baddecision

---

Easy for me to say it after the fact but I would have liked it around 28 or 29. None of us knew he was going off for 60 since that is crazy but we had to know they would get him the ball a lot just like the players did in that all star game knowing it would be his last.

I completely forgot to look at it until it was too late.

The NFL Schedules for the upcoming season were released earlier:

http://www.nfl.com/schedules/2016/REG1

Under 6 speaks for itself.

04/15/2016 - ONLINE at 11:09 AM
[Ticket #: 256225963] STRAIGHT BET
04/15/2016 @ 07:10 PM
MLB
[912] TOTAL u6-120 (SFO GIANTS vrs LA DODGERS)
( M BUMGARNER -L / C KERSHAW -L ) RISKING 120.00 TO WIN 100.00


Two big offenses. Dreadful Porcello and a knuckleballer on a cool dry night. Bought it on a dip.

04/15/2016 - ONLINE at 03:13 PM
[Ticket #: 256262095] STRAIGHT BET
04/15/2016 @ 04:20 PM
MLB
[917] TOTAL o8½-120 (TOR BLUE JAYS vrs BOS RED SOX)
( R DICKEY -R / R PORCELLO -R ) RISKING 120.00 TO WIN 100.00

Dickey and porcello are over machines. Still 1 to go but it will happen.

Need to start blindly putting 500 on each of these games. Sigh.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by simpdog

Dickey and porcello are over machines. Still 1 to go but it will happen.

Need to start blindly putting 500 on each of these games. Sigh.

---

That money stealing scumbag Porcello pitched an absolute gem.......

And they still got to 8 runs scored. You couldn't pay me to bet an under in a Sox Jays game.

I didn't post it in time and apologize for it but the play of the day was Volquez under 5.5 Ks. Let's see how he does.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Daly

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by simpdog

Dickey and porcello are over machines. Still 1 to go but it will happen.

Need to start blindly putting 500 on each of these games. Sigh.

---

That money stealing scumbag Porcello pitched an absolute gem.......

And they still got to 8 runs scored. You couldn't pay me to bet an under in a Sox Jays game.

---

I would make that same bet now. Little frustrating cause I was so patient about waiting for it to dip below 9.

Didn't follow whole game. Early on there were two balls off the top of wall that could have been home rums. Couple other bullets off wall that were well fielded.

I loved playing Dickey the knuckle baller on a cool dry night. Knucklers favor humidity (thick air for dance). He def got roughed up.

It's all you can do.

Counting on Bumgarner Kershaw now.

It's all in the game.

As posted in the UFC thread I'm going with Dodson not going the distance as my play of the day, but I got it early at +120.

Rest of my card

Graves -115
Zaleski +125
Torres +175
Evans +185
Bamgboose -185
Dober +160

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Daly

As posted in the UFC thread I'm going with Dodson not going the distance as my play of the day, but I got it early at +120.

Rest of my card

Graves -115
Zaleski +125
Torres +175
Evans +185
Bamgboose -185
Dober +160

---

pretty sure there is no dober fight. opponent got usada'd.

Anyone else waiting on bovada withdrawals from March?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Spookygook

Anyone else waiting on bovada withdrawals from March?

---

http://pokerfraudalert.com/forum/sho...payment-issues

Fluke win, Ovince St Pruex beats Jon Jones.

I think Jon isn't focused enough and OSP isn't a walk in the park.

Darrell Horcher/Khabib Nurmagomedov Under 2½ -117

Nurmagomedov inside distance

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Daly

Darrell Horcher/Khabib Nurmagomedov Under 2½ -117

Nurmagomedov inside distance

---

I can see no scenario where Khabib doesn't finish this fight. I suppose an injury could happen.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Daly

Darrell Horcher/Khabib Nurmagomedov Under 2½ -117

Nurmagomedov inside distance

---

I going along with you. Didn't get as good odds as you.

Under 2.5 Rounds -130

Had Dodgers Giants under 8 last night. Maeda in the zone. Suicide bet for suicide. But admire his game. Druff edge sorting a fan.


Got my eye on Henry's boy Syndergaard (Mets) vs Philly.

Two anemic offenses. Syndergaard goes deep in games. Top top numbers.

Under 7 +105

Thinking about Warriors total. Shoulda hit the under earlier. Wish I had the strength to just pass on this but I am weak.

Took Hawks -6 -110 vs Celts w/o Avery Bradley

Cubs Cardinals is fascinating. I was surprised to see Cardinals surpassed even the Cubs Runs Scored.
Lackey just hasn't been sharp. Lotta historic nonsense about Leake vs previous Cubs teams.
Cubs went to sleep vs Rockies last night. Cubs OTR again tonight.
There's an edge somewhere in all this.
Cubs -1.5 +145 makes no sense but looks so juicy. It's like Cubs porn.

Edit:
Decided to go with over 8.5 Cubs Cardinals. Again, Lackey hasn't been sharp and Molina & Cardinals have the book on the ex-Cardinal Lackey. This bet is not a great price and is more about a 6 pack of Guinness and enjoying the game.

[Ticket #: 256751947] STRAIGHT BET
04/18/2016 @ 05:05 PM
MLB
[957] TOTAL o8½-105 (CHI CUBS vrs STL CARDINALS)
( J LACKEY -R / M LEAKE -R ) RISKING 105.00 TO WIN 100.00

This is my favorite bet tonight.

[Ticket #: 256725407] STRAIGHT BET
04/18/2016 @ 04:15 PM
MLB
[952] TOTAL u7+105 (NY METS vrs PHI PHILLIES)
( N SYNDERGAARD -R / J EICKHOFF -R ) RISKING 200.00 TO WIN 210.00

Line jumped to 7½ just before the first pitch and I had to hit that too

[Ticket #: 256746506] STRAIGHT BET
04/18/2016 @ 04:15 PM
MLB
[952] TOTAL u7½-120 (NY METS vrs PHI PHILLIES)
( N SYNDERGAARD -R / J EICKHOFF -R ) RISKING 120.00 TO WIN 100.00

Basketball for tomorrow. The lesson here is to get it early when you know the change. You knew Curry's ankle was an issue yesterday & we missed a good price on under cause the line caught up today

[Ticket #: 256726648] STRAIGHT BET
04/19/2016 @ 04:05 PM
NBA
Playoffs - Game #2
[524] ATL HAWKS -6-110 RISKING 110.00 TO WIN 100.00

Need an answer to "what the hell am I missing?" since I haven't followed this very closely at all...

Cruz is 26/27 cents to win the republican nomination...from the little I've seen this thing goes contested he will most likely be the choice...question is does this get contested...seems to me like there is a decent chance of that happening...would figure cruz's price would rise if he gets enough delegates to block trump...

Am I just plain off on my read of him getting the nod if trump doesn't win outright and the semi-decent shot that this is a contested convention?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis

Need an answer to "what the hell am I missing?" since I haven't followed this very closely at all...

Cruz is 26/27 cents to win the republican nomination...from the little I've seen this thing goes contested he will most likely be the choice...question is does this get contested...seems to me like there is a decent chance of that happening...would figure cruz's price would rise if he gets enough delegates to block trump...

Am I just plain off on my read of him getting the nod if trump doesn't win outright and the semi-decent shot that this is a contested convention?

---

If it gets contested, Kasich gets it or Walker or Bush gets it 3rd or 4th ballot HOF. The establishment will seed Cruz to dump Trump, then they will in turn dump Cruz for the guy they wanted all along. "Sure Ted, we got your back", while they sharpen their knives in the cloak room. All these dipshit low level party hacks - 'delegates' stand to walk out of this deal with a beach house and a corvette when all this is said and done, playing one candidate off the other.

Pistons +11 was as easy of money as it gets in the NBA for game 1 and they are +10.5 on a lot of books tonight again. I told a few people privately of this play but will admit I didn't post it in here.

The Pistons play the Cavs hard regardless of where the game is so take that into consideration.

During the regular season the Pistons were 3-1 vs. Cleveland and that speaks volumes. They create some match up issues for the Cavs who struggle vs. teams with a center like Andre Drummond.

It's not as much of a beg borrow and steal bet as game 1 was but the Pistons will play hard again in game 2 so take the Pistons +10.5 or higher ftw.

These homer nignog refs might try to fuck this up but the Pistons should still keep it close enough imo.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by 4Dragons

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis

Need an answer to "what the hell am I missing?" since I haven't followed this very closely at all...

Cruz is 26/27 cents to win the republican nomination...from the little I've seen this thing goes contested he will most likely be the choice...question is does this get contested...seems to me like there is a decent chance of that happening...would figure cruz's price would rise if he gets enough delegates to block trump...

Am I just plain off on my read of him getting the nod if trump doesn't win outright and the semi-decent shot that this is a contested convention?

---

If it gets contested, Kasich gets it or Walker or Bush gets it 3rd or 4th ballot HOF. The establishment will seed Cruz to dump Trump, then they will in turn dump Cruz for the guy they wanted all along. "Sure Ted, we got your back", while they sharpen their knives in the cloak room. All these dipshit low level party hacks - 'delegates' stand to walk out of this deal with a beach house and a corvette when all this is said and done, playing one candidate off the other.

---

Interesting take...like I said haven't been following it very closely at all...

Kasich is hella interesting given how he is polling against Hillary...

Wondering if it would be smart to buy some Cruz and kasich and dump them as a trade on a pop if the contested convention starts to be more of a reality...

Also saw hillary is 70 cents to win the general election...that just seems like fucking insanity at this point in the game...I get she is the favorite, but 5:2? No way...figure that might be a good short for a trade as well...

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by 4Dragons

If it gets contested, Kasich gets it or Walker or Bush gets it 3rd or 4th ballot HOF. The establishment will seed Cruz to dump Trump, then they will in turn dump Cruz for the guy they wanted all along. "Sure Ted, we got your back", while they sharpen their knives in the cloak room. All these dipshit low level party hacks - 'delegates' stand to walk out of this deal with a beach house and a corvette when all this is said and done, playing one candidate off the other.

---

Interesting take...like I said haven't been following it very closely at all...

Kasich is hella interesting given how he is polling against Hillary...

Wondering if it would be smart to buy some Cruz and kasich and dump them as a trade on a pop if the contested convention starts to be more of a reality...

Also saw hillary is 70 cents to win the general election...that just seems like fucking insanity at this point in the game...I get she is the favorite, but 5:2? No way...figure that might be a good short for a trade as well...

---

We have to get past the convention for me to gauge how the rest of it shakes out. The way Trump would manhandle Hillary in a debate would be some next level shit. I don't think any of the other Repub candidates can even stand with her. I mean I don't think anyone other than Obama could really beat her in a debate.. but along comes Trump.

thats my point on Hillary...a lot of shit has to shake out...69/70 cents seems like a dogshit price given we have no clue who the republican nominee is going to be...

Would love to sell her at 69/70 and start covering around 60 and be all out by 55...

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis

thats my point on Hillary...a lot of shit has to shake out...69/70 cents seems like a dogshit price given we have no clue who the republican nominee is going to be...

Would love to sell her at 69/70 and start covering around 60 and be all out by 55...

---

I like the way you are thinking about this. Its just a trade and not the endgame.

So, is this the highest price we have seen to date?
Do we want to wait for a top? Can we get a better price? Say, Trump steps on his dick in some small way and sell then.

Regardless, I think you can expect some (errant/mistaken) excitement and love around the convention. The reward seems greater than the risk.

Again, we are not talking about who will win or any of that. You are just playing the swings in public sentiment.

Interested to see if you trade this. Is a 10 point move a profitable trade? I thought Druff said the juice was terrible

Gonna look at Pistons idea. Sounds good.

Fading injured Celts last night was the best playoff NBA bet so far. 7 points first quarter.

Just did this. Line just popped. Been following all day. Explain later. Sorry Druff.


[Ticket #: 257002289] STRAIGHT BET
04/20/2016 @ 04:10 PM
MLB
[960] ATL BRAVES +140
( ACTION ) RISKING 100.00 TO WIN 140.00

Just got +11 -110 on Detroit

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Sanlmar

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis

thats my point on Hillary...a lot of shit has to shake out...69/70 cents seems like a dogshit price given we have no clue who the republican nominee is going to be...

Would love to sell her at 69/70 and start covering around 60 and be all out by 55...

---

I like the way you are thinking about this. Its just a trade and not the endgame.

So, is this the highest price we have seen to date?
Do we want to wait for a top? Can we get a better price? Say, Trump steps on his dick in some small way and sell then.

Regardless, I think you can expect some (errant/mistaken) excitement and love around the convention. The reward seems greater than the risk.

Again, we are not talking about who will win or any of that. You are just playing the swings in public sentiment.

Interested to see if you trade this. Is a 10 point move a profitable trade? I thought Druff said the juice was terrible

---

Yo San...just got bored today so started looking at it...haven't looked at transaction costs, but yeah that would fuck it...

definitely looking at it as a pure trade and not an end game...

this is a 30 and 90 day high for Hillary...she got all the way up to 71 today, right now she is down to 68...interesting...sure she got a bump on that NY victory that took her up towards 70, now she is "fading" a little...id load the boat on Hillary below 50, be interested between 50-55, be agnostic between 55-60, and be a seller above 60 right now...

I like your idea about excitement around the convention...think a time to buy Hillary would be in the week leading up to the convention and then dump her right as she gives her speech...think you could make a few points on that trade...

my cruz/Kasich (as 4D clued me in to) is strictly a trade based on a contested convention...you buy that package for 31 now (24 & 7) and I'm sure you could sell the package for like 50 if you get any likelihood of a contested convention...again I haven't been following as closely as people on this board, but from the little ive read it seems like that is the endgame from the GOP establishment...ive been wrong before on things related to gambling (thought villanova was a sell at 12:1 to win the title) and I'm sure ill be wrong again, but this shit is definitely interesting from a 'lets try to make some money on this shit angle'...

EDIT: just looked that the vig is 10% on all profits...seems pretty fucking bad...

Raptors were +1 on some books prior to the start of the game. I understand they are playing on the road but come on Las Vegas, are you serious?

If you took the Cubs -15 your good.

Arrietta or Syndergaard best pitcher?

Jumped on Warriors -3.5 for 2nd half...Curry out as they are playing it safe with his ankle. Charles Barkley was funny during halftime report and Guarantees (said it dozen times) that GS wins by 10 and that the Rockets are "fake hustle" and hes seen it before lol

Had Rockets ml. They could possibly be the dumbest group of players ever assembled. They tried to fuck that game every which way. Even when the Warriors gave them the fucking thing with 1 second left they throw the fucking inbounds pass towards their own basket. Thought Livingston was going to steal it and lay it in. Feel like I stole one there.

If you have an out that has week 1 NFL go pound Arizona immediately.

BREAKING: US Appeals court reinstates New England Patriots' Tom Brady's suspension over 'deflategate' - Reuters

Steph Curry with a Grade 1 MCL sprain in his right knee and will be re-evaluated in two weeks.

Hillary to win the general election got down to 64 yesterday from a high of 71 after she won NY...

watch to see the price action after what is expected to be a Clinton asskicking in PA...

if you could actually trade this shit in size you could make some good money scalping...but I think the max is like $850 so if you sold 120 shares at $0.70 and covered at $0.65 you made a cool $60 minus $6 in commissions for a $54 profit...

unfortunately not fucking worth it...