Official Presidential Polling and Odds thread

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

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Originally Posted by tgull

I think we can put these "Is Texas in play" or "Is Florida in play" bull shit to bed. Good polls for Trump on the national level.

Texas: Trump vs. Harris NY Times/Siena
Trump 50, Harris 44

Trump +6

Florida: Trump vs. Harris NY Times/Siena
Trump 55, Harris 41

Trump +14

National: Trump vs. Harris NY Times/Siena
Harris 49, Trump 46

Harris +3

National: Trump vs. Harris Reuters/Ipsos
Harris 51, Trump 49

Harris +2

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Each party has certain unrealistic fantasies about states being in play which will definitely not be

For the Democrats, it's Texas, Florida, and Montana.

For the Republicans, it's Minnesota, New Jersey, and Virginia.


Anyway, even Democratic strategists are privately getting concerned. Kamala is losing popularity with every dumb interview she does.

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I don't know anyone who follows politics who thinks or is calling for Minn or Virginia going red.

The one i keep hearing as a surprise is Trump is way more alive in New York that he has any business being. People not happy how he was treated and the in general clown car political seen.

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Originally Posted by big dick

Deal: Trump renting out madison square garden thinking NY is in play.

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How incredible would it be for Harris to perform better than advertised in the rust belt only to have New York turn Red over all the bullshit legal cases that the people did not support.

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Originally Posted by Daly

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Originally Posted by big dick

Deal: Trump renting out madison square garden thinking NY is in play.

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How incredible would it be for Harris to perform better than advertised in the rust belt only to have New York turn Red over all the bullshit legal cases that the people did not support.

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yeah and then a UFO lands but instead of aliens its packed with dog dicks and they all sing Ave Maria out of their space urethras.

man wouldnt that be something.

they will be singing hallelujah like that chick on snl after trump won and it was iconic

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Originally Posted by Daly

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Originally Posted by big dick

Deal: Trump renting out madison square garden thinking NY is in play.

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How incredible would it be for Harris to perform better than advertised in the rust belt only to have New York turn Red over all the bullshit legal cases that the people did not support.

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For the life of me I cant figure out why a guy like you or any American who has prospered in our current system would wanna gamble on changing the current system.

Trump picks Waco, Texas, to kick off his 2024 presidential campaign


Did you know this about Waco? Wasnt kicked off there by accident

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Originally Posted by Texter

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Originally Posted by big dick

Texter- I know you're a smart guy a good guy and a reasonable guy.

Look at some of the people on this board you're in political kahoots with- boxcarr, desert, mickey ect

Why would you or any normal man want to be associated with the morons i mentioned above?

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My main issue is the US border and the out of control government spending. I am pro immigrant but 10 million is too too many.

Of course the republicans have had plenty of opportunities in the past to cut spending and didn’t do shit.

I wish independents in non swing states would vote libertarian just so we could get a 3rd party on stage of the debates, out two party system is a joke. Politics has been ruined by the sheer sums of $$$ to be made, the main goal of most politicians is to get re-elected and keep the money faucet flowing.

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I agree with you the border needs to be fixed as well as the debt issue and probaly agree with you on most issues but these fascist nutjobs who are trying to steal power are not going to solve our problems

I just think we will all regret it in the long run if they somehow get power.

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Originally Posted by big dick

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Originally Posted by Texter

My main issue is the US border and the out of control government spending. I am pro immigrant but 10 million is too too many.

Of course the republicans have had plenty of opportunities in the past to cut spending and didn’t do shit.

I wish independents in non swing states would vote libertarian just so we could get a 3rd party on stage of the debates, out two party system is a joke. Politics has been ruined by the sheer sums of $$$ to be made, the main goal of most politicians is to get re-elected and keep the money faucet flowing.

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I agree with you the border needs to be fixed as well as the debt issue and probaly agree with you on most issues but these fascist nutjobs who are trying to steal power are not going to solve our problems

I just think we will all regret it in the long run if they somehow get power.

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I will regret it no matter who wins.

https://x.com/2waytvapp/status/18449...a39cae48953897

https://x.com/magikalalpha/status/1845070004380745819

Still opportunity if you believe Trump is going to win and Kamala wins the popular vote. Shocked it’s still +205 compared to -135 for just a Trump win.

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Originally Posted by The Boz

Still opportunity if you believe Trump is going to win and Kamala wins the popular vote. Shocked it’s still +205 compared to -135 for just a Trump win.

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Cali just has too many people who vote Democrat. You really are never going to overcome that. The Dems have done a brilliant job in that state to keep people dependent on government checks. I hate it, but if it keeps people like that magnetized over there, it really is worth it when you think about it.

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Originally Posted by big dick

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Originally Posted by Daly

How incredible would it be for Harris to perform better than advertised in the rust belt only to have New York turn Red over all the bullshit legal cases that the people did not support.

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For the life of me I cant figure out why a guy like you or any American who has prospered in our current system would wanna gamble on changing the current system.

Trump picks Waco, Texas, to kick off his 2024 presidential campaign


Did you know this about Waco? Wasnt kicked off there by accident

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“The current system”

If you think things have gone well over the last 3.5 years then I cant help you.

you think im just talking about the last 3.5 years?

how about waco you didnt respond to that

https://x.com/nypost/status/1845155456181805403

^^^^

https://x.com/papitrumpo/status/1845...EENLDqSWyJ3hng

Keep in mind Clinton and Biden were up between 5 and 9 points at this time:

https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status...a39cae48953897

NATIONAL poll 🔴 Trump: 47% (+1) 🔵 Harris: 46% 🟠 Other/unsure: 3% 🟡 Kennedy: 2% 🟣 Oliver: 1% 🟢 Stein: 1% NBC | Oct. 4-8 | N=1,000RV

https://x.com/EricLDaugh/status/1845...a39cae48953897

I was feeling pessimistic about Trump's chances, but I think Kamala's goose is cooked.

The bottom line is that too many Americans are unhappy with the cost of everything, and Kamala hasn't convinced anyone that she's not going to be a continuation of Biden.

Additionally, this looks like a ticket of stupid people. Neither Kamala nor Walz comes off as intelligent or competent in interviews. I think the Vance/Walz debate was actually the turning point. That plus Kamala's disasterous interviews are probably making people nervous to put that ticket in the White House. At least people know what they got with Trump.

Obama is out there crying to black men about not supporting Kamala enough. Trump is about to score the highest percentage of black voters in modern history. This includes Reagan, who only got 9% of the black vote, and 34% of the Hispanic vote in 1984 when he almost won all 50 states.

Trump is going to get clobbered in the white suburban women demographic, but I don't think it's going to be enough for Kamala. Despite a bad debate and many other missteps, Trump is on pace to take this one.

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

I was feeling pessimistic about Trump's chances, but I think Kamala's goose is cooked.

The bottom line is that too many Americans are unhappy with the cost of everything, and Kamala hasn't convinced anyone that she's not going to be a continuation of Biden.

Additionally, this looks like a ticket of stupid people. Neither Kamala nor Walz comes off as intelligent or competent in interviews. I think the Vance/Walz debate was actually the turning point. That plus Kamala's disasterous interviews are probably making people nervous to put that ticket in the White House. At least people know what they got with Trump.

Obama is out there crying to black men about not supporting Kamala enough. Trump is about to score the highest percentage of black voters in modern history. This includes Reagan, who only got 9% of the black vote, and 34% of the Hispanic vote in 1984 when he almost won all 50 states.

Trump is going to get clobbered in the white suburban women demographic, but I don't think it's going to be enough for Kamala. Despite a bad debate and many other missteps, Trump is on pace to take this one.

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Keep thinking

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

I was feeling pessimistic about Trump's chances, but I think Kamala's goose is cooked.

The bottom line is that too many Americans are unhappy with the cost of everything, and Kamala hasn't convinced anyone that she's not going to be a continuation of Biden.

Additionally, this looks like a ticket of stupid people. Neither Kamala nor Walz comes off as intelligent or competent in interviews. I think the Vance/Walz debate was actually the turning point. That plus Kamala's disasterous interviews are probably making people nervous to put that ticket in the White House. At least people know what they got with Trump.

Obama is out there crying to black men about not supporting Kamala enough. Trump is about to score the highest percentage of black voters in modern history. This includes Reagan, who only got 9% of the black vote, and 34% of the Hispanic vote in 1984 when he almost won all 50 states.

Trump is going to get clobbered in the white suburban women demographic, but I don't think it's going to be enough for Kamala. Despite a bad debate and many other missteps, Trump is on pace to take this one.

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My wife voted for Clinton in 2016. She is voting for Trump this go around although she cannot stand him. My wife has kids now. Things change over time. I will admit Harris has cornered the extreme lesbian vote though.

Sunday, October 13
National: Trump vs. Harris NBC News
Harris 48, Trump 48

Tie

National: Trump vs. Harris CBS News
Harris 51, Trump 48

Harris +3

National: Trump vs. Harris ABC News/Ipsos
Harris 50, Trump 48

Harris +2

Florida: Trump vs. Harris NBC 6/Mason-Dixon
Trump 49, Harris 43

Trump +6

Florida Senate - Scott vs. Mucarsel-Powell NBC 6/Mason-Dixon
Scott 48, Mucarsel-Powell 41

Scott +7

President Biden Job Approval NBC News
Approve 43, Disapprove 54

Disapprove +11

2024 Generic Congressional Vote NBC News
Democrats 47, Republicans 47

Tie

Direction of Country NBC News
Right Direction 31, Wrong Track 64

Wrong Track +33

https://x.com/Newsweek/status/184538...a39cae48953897

He is Winning!


https://x.com/EricLDaugh/status/1845...a39cae48953897

so when do the DemonRats try to pull another dirty trick on Trump?? i suspect very quick like with the new recent reports of Tampon Touchy Tim diddling a 14 yr. old boy back in the day when he was coach and a teacher....

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Originally Posted by tgull

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

I was feeling pessimistic about Trump's chances, but I think Kamala's goose is cooked.

The bottom line is that too many Americans are unhappy with the cost of everything, and Kamala hasn't convinced anyone that she's not going to be a continuation of Biden.

Additionally, this looks like a ticket of stupid people. Neither Kamala nor Walz comes off as intelligent or competent in interviews. I think the Vance/Walz debate was actually the turning point. That plus Kamala's disasterous interviews are probably making people nervous to put that ticket in the White House. At least people know what they got with Trump.

Obama is out there crying to black men about not supporting Kamala enough. Trump is about to score the highest percentage of black voters in modern history. This includes Reagan, who only got 9% of the black vote, and 34% of the Hispanic vote in 1984 when he almost won all 50 states.

Trump is going to get clobbered in the white suburban women demographic, but I don't think it's going to be enough for Kamala. Despite a bad debate and many other missteps, Trump is on pace to take this one.

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My wife voted for Clinton in 2016. She is voting for Trump this go around although she cannot stand him. My wife has kids now. Things change over time. I will admit Harris has cornered the extreme lesbian vote though.

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i cannot imagine being married to someone who thinks so opposite of me. now that said, i would vote Bill Clinton now over both of the current fools - or at least the iteration of him in the 90s. Fact.

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Originally Posted by Tellafriend

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Originally Posted by tgull

My wife voted for Clinton in 2016. She is voting for Trump this go around although she cannot stand him. My wife has kids now. Things change over time. I will admit Harris has cornered the extreme lesbian vote though.

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i cannot imagine being married to someone who thinks so opposite of me. now that said, i would vote Bill Clinton now over both of the current fools - or at least the iteration of him in the 90s. Fact.

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Yeah, most single women 10-15 years ago were ardent Clinton fanatics. Over time, they grow, especially when they have kids and get lectured by women that do not have kids.That usually does the trick. It did with my wife, she was like WTF is she talking about, a woman in her 40s talking about high school curriculum with no kids of her own. That kind of ended it. A dinner that went south. I was like see I told you so.

BOL Trump -140

PINNY Trump -143

The last two week rate of change is most astonishing too

i forgot to register to vote so don loses az thats on me yall

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Originally Posted by Daly

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Originally Posted by big dick

For the life of me I cant figure out why a guy like you or any American who has prospered in our current system would wanna gamble on changing the current system.

Trump picks Waco, Texas, to kick off his 2024 presidential campaign


Did you know this about Waco? Wasnt kicked off there by accident

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“The current system”

If you think things have gone well over the last 3.5 years then I cant help you.

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i think the real problem is the notion that trump can improve anything at all. what hes pitching, he cant pull it off. and if he tries, the dollar wont be the global reserve currency for a long. and then the real decline comes. the bloody one.

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Originally Posted by sonatine

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Originally Posted by Daly

“The current system”

If you think things have gone well over the last 3.5 years then I cant help you.

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i think the real problem is the notion that trump can improve anything at all. what hes pitching, he cant pull it off. and if he tries, the dollar wont be the global reserve currency for a long. and then the real decline comes. the bloody one.

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Is what Kamala is pitching any better? The answer is nope.

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Originally Posted by sonatine

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Originally Posted by Daly

“The current system”

If you think things have gone well over the last 3.5 years then I cant help you.

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i think the real problem is the notion that trump can improve anything at all. what hes pitching, he cant pull it off. and if he tries, the dollar wont be the global reserve currency for a long. and then the real decline comes. the bloody one.

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Oh sweetheart, that ship left port several years ago. Trump nor Kamala would have any serious effect

Condi Rice recently pleads that whoever wins strengthens the defense industrial base. That’s gonna happen regardless. So the bloody thing is indeed the long game but you know that too

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Originally Posted by Sanlmar

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Originally Posted by sonatine

i think the real problem is the notion that trump can improve anything at all. what hes pitching, he cant pull it off. and if he tries, the dollar wont be the global reserve currency for a long. and then the real decline comes. the bloody one.

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Oh sweetheart, that ship left port several years ago. Trump nor Kamala would have any serious effect

Condi Rice recently pleads that whoever wins strengthens the defense industrial base. That’s gonna happen regardless. So the bloody thing is indeed the long game but you know that too

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The whole "the dollar will cease to exist as the world's reserve currency" is quite laughable. What are you going to replace it with? The ruble? Yuan? Yen? What makes the US dollar so valuable is it's the world's technological and entertainment center of the planet. We can print money to the end of time and it does not matter. There are no AI chips coming out of China. No movies anyone ever wants to watch. There is no Netflix. No Nike. No Apple. No Warren Buffet. Sure there are rip offs, but they come way too late and after the fact. Russia can build a nice tank and drill oil. India, they supply the world's engineers and that is about it. China can have nice products right up until the founder gets held hostage for a three year stint. The dollar is going nowhere. We can cancel the fucking debt tomorrow and the world can't do shit about it. Outside of China nobody gives a fucking shit about a yuan. You got that?

New General election poll - Georgia 🔴 Trump 50% (+3) 🔵 Harris 47% RMG #C - (@NapolitanNews) - 731 LV - 10/10

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Originally Posted by Sanlmar

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Originally Posted by sonatine

i think the real problem is the notion that trump can improve anything at all. what hes pitching, he cant pull it off. and if he tries, the dollar wont be the global reserve currency for a long. and then the real decline comes. the bloody one.

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Oh sweetheart, that ship left port several years ago. Trump nor Kamala would have any serious effect

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im asking you to have the courage to remember this quote. trump is talking about real systemic changes in a system he understands about .1% of. hes going after fed autonomy, just for starters. then theres his absolutely batshit tariff ideas. the worst thing about kamala is that shes a status quo non-solution. and the blind spot for people saying trump cant do worse is that holy shit he can do much, much worse. hes not here to be a president because a president is a role defined by checks and balances. hes stated very clearly that hes going to go after them and he has the means to do so in the SC.

the good news about a trump win is that its essentially a president vance scenario within 6 months. and vance is probably not nearly as crazy as he seems.


probably.

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Originally Posted by sonatine

the good news about a trump win is that its essentially a president vance scenario within 6 months. and vance is probably not nearly as crazy as he seems.


probably.

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Desantis for Veep?

YEAH!

https://x.com/EricLDaugh/status/1845839735614259408

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Originally Posted by tgull

YEAH!

https://x.com/EricLDaugh/status/1845839735614259408

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https://x.com/IAPolls2022/status/1845872192426258626