I'd make a conservative estimate the confirmed cases are 10% of the actual total and would take the under on that
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I'd make a conservative estimate the confirmed cases are 10% of the actual total and would take the under on that
Even 5% seems too high tbh
https://ncov2019.live/ real time .100 %accurate.
lets assume that on jan 1, 10 people in the US had reached a point where they were able to infect other people. lets assume that some infect 0 people in 3 days, others infect 4 people 3 days.. lets settle on each person infecting 2 people every 3 days as a theoretical average. personally this seems really low to me because very early on, hospital waiting rooms, doctors offices, prisons/jails, bars, clubs, busses, planes, airports, trains, cabs, ATM machine keypads, cash, subway straps would all be totally infected and resulting in constant new infections but whatever, lets just spitball the hilariously conservative 2 new infections every 3 days per infected person math.
jan 1: 10 people infected.
jan 15: 320 people infected.
jan 21: 1280 people infected.
jan 27: 5120 people infected.
feb 1: 10,240 people infected.
feb 10: 81,920 people infected.
feb 19: 655,360 people infected.
feb 26: 5,242,880 people infected.
march 1: 10,485,760 people infected.
btw this is actually flawed because after 5 - 10 days they become symptomatic but the deliberate suppression of the infection rate should, to some extent, compensate for this.
I guess this shit is going to be around for awhile.
i cant get behind those numbers tine
if you are saying 500k infected a month ago then the bodies would have been piling up 2 weeks ago
Quote:
Originally Posted by JACKDANIELS
as of 12 hours ago we clocked 23,000'ish people dead of 'flu'.
at 1.5% mortality, 7500 of those bodies would be c19 related. so my timeline is off by a couple of weeks?
more importantly, im just demonstrating how even a super conservative model kicks the dick off 150k and fucks it back on.
like im literally doodling on a napkin and destroying the 150k figure, that wasnt supposed to be a viable infection model. theres a reason people use supercomputers for those.
or its just a huge nothingburger and italy, china, and south korea are just jew media conspiracies.
Source?Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
Usa 1st death was 1st March, deaths happen around 3-4 weeks after infection
If you are claiming 10mil infected 21 days ago and USA at around 250 total deaths so far it just doesn't add up
Italy currently has 58 deaths per million people on a population of 60m people
So if your estimated infected to death ratio is accurate then literally the entire population of Italy would have the virus now.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SPIT thisSource?Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
im honestly not sure how you want me to respond, if you know of a more infectious virus im happy to concede your point. it sounds like you just want me to spend time proving you right, and im not sure my rates would appeal to you.
It's definitely bad don't get me wrong and I agree total infected is way under reported but don't see us being anywhere near 10m Americans infected 3 weeks ago
Quote:
Originally Posted by JACKDANIELS
so the 15 second exponential growth model i whipped up to simply demonstrate how ludicrous the 150k estimate is isnt accurate.
someone give this man a banana sticker, stat. the crisis is over.
thanks for saving the world, jack, we appreciate it.
honestly tho if you believe march 1 was our first covid death, we arent going to see eye to eye on much here.
He was using those figures as an example.Quote:
Originally Posted by JACKDANIELS
Bolded is very interesting, where are you getting this from ?Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
I'd like to see how reported "flu" deaths right now compare to previous years, it wouldn't be a very effective way to cover up corona deaths if it's 10x higher than usual or whatever.
I didn't that it's a given that it's more contagious than say, Small Pox, or the 1918 fluQuote:
Originally Posted by sonatineQuote:
Originally Posted by SPIT this
im honestly not sure how you want me to respond, if you know of a more infectious virus im happy to concede your point. it sounds like you just want me to spend time proving you right, and im not sure my rates would appeal to you.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SPIT thisI didn't that it's a given that it's more contagious than say, Small Pox, or the 1918 fluQuote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
you actually might be right.. smallpox & measles were both super airborne, this is not so much. but the incubation period and survival time outside a host make it a close race imo.
note that concepts like hygiene in 1918 were pretty bad so im not going to weigh in there.
the reason i trend towards giving it the gold here is because of the sheer volume of viruses doctors are finding in asymptomatic people. like with SARS, they would find N viral load in the back of someones throat, but with c19, the viral load is (not shitting you) N * 1000. days after exposure they are finding 1000 times the viral load they saw with SARS.
the other thing thats coming to light that may or may not negatively impact my comment is here:
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/09/...covery-begins/
but yeah those first 10 days or whatever is wild af.
Quote:
Originally Posted by JACKDANIELSBolded is very interesting, where are you getting this from ?Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
I'd like to see how reported "flu" deaths right now compare to previous years, it wouldn't be a very effective way to cover up corona deaths if it's 10x higher than usual or whatever.
just google flu deaths 2020, its out there.
and i hate to be that guy but we just cant trust any of the numbers at this point. from anyone.
Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatineQuote:
Originally Posted by JACKDANIELS
just google flu deaths 2020, its out there.
and i hate to be that guy but we just cant trust any of the numbers at this point. from anyone.
ok wait:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/29/h...virus-flu.html
im betting flu season includes the tail end of 2019?Quote:
In the current season, there have been at least 34 million cases of flu in the United States, 350,000 hospitalizations and 20,000 flu deaths, according to the C.D.C. Hospitalization rates among children and young adults this year have been unusually high.