Well done but 3 pters in game <> 3 pt contestQuote:
Originally Posted by IAmProfessionalTalk
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Well done but 3 pters in game <> 3 pt contestQuote:
Originally Posted by IAmProfessionalTalk
Running another sim using catch-and-shoot 3P%
The moral of the story is that Curry and Bosh are both WAY overpriced. Should be approximately 20% and exactly 0%, respectively.
Yup, I think the catch and shoot sim will be a better model for this contest.Quote:
Originally Posted by IAmProfessionalTalk
BOOKER FTW
catch-and-shoot model
combined model, essentially double weighting wide-open & catch-and-shoot 3P attempts, the shot most closely resembling the contestCode:curry 20% +411
redick 22% +356
thompson 10% +871
booker 11% +800
middleton 12% +710
lowry 18% +444
mccollum 4% +2654
harden 3% +3528
Code:curry 20% +411
redick 19% +426
thompson 13% +641
booker 12% +718
middleton 12% +752
lowry 11% +844
mccollum 7% +1369
harden 7% +1426
thanks IAPT, fucking phenomenal...guess redick is fairly priced...fuck...
very, very, very interesting on booker...
gonna fire on both and hope for a booker upset...
LOL, just went to fire on booker and the lines have fucking shifted like crazy...wtf!??!
97569 STEPHEN CURRY, GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS +108
97570 JAMES HARDEN, HOUSTON ROCKETS +1078
97571 KLAY THOMPSON, GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS +569
97572 KHRIS MIDDLETON, MILWAUKEE BUCKS +529
97573 KYLE LOWRY, TORONTO RAPTORS +759
97574 JJ REDICK, LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS +337
97575 CHRIS BOSH, MIAMI HEAT +4941
97576 DEVIN BOOKER, PHOENIX SUNS +630
TMMLK'S LOCK OF THE NBA ALL STAR GAME
UNDER 316.5
WEST IS OBV A GOD TEAM, BUT I THINK EAST HAS A SHOT TO COVER AT +6
:hof
:ohh
my bQuote:
Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis
hilarious that bosh is still listed 10 hours after he withdrew
Let's discuss the NBA All Star total.
All the $ is flowing on over. It's gone up to 317.
Last year it finished at 321 (the game, not the line).
TMMLK thinks it will go under.
I kind of think that, too.
One factor is Kobe Bryant. He is old, slow, and can't shoot. He's a starter on the team, and I think they will be giving him the ball a lot, because it's his final year. I think this will slow down scoring. Recall that scoring has to be at breakneck speed (almost 7 points per minute) in order to go over.
Opinions?
No opinion other than the total seems to go up 10 points every year and it still always goes over.
Maybe more effort on defense with the entire week off?
Did the all star game where Magic played with Aids hit under or over?
Quote:
Originally Posted by IAmProfessionalTalk
Thanks for green repping my "last" post on the site. Notexpected.com. I will be in vegas for pac 12 tourney. Washington Huskies are probably the most fun team to watch in basketball right now.
I wonder how the court, rims, and sight lines are in the MGM? I've never seen a game there. I swear I have these teams pegged though. 8k uptick risking only 220 a game. (One degen parlay.) This local bookie is keeping me in the game. I've already got slow payed like 4 times but that got me to stop doing parlays. It's the worst bookie of all time.
And I don't want to be a dick but please don't be a guy setting up a Peter D.C. You remind me of him. For all I know you are nice to me because you fear my loose cannon tendencies. Rolling innocent people is super low.
Also if I don't post much anymore I'm still looking for spots to bet the Magic as I've loved them all year. My other bet on teams are the Nuggets and also the Celtics.
I think if they let Kobe turn loose nobody is going to guard him seriously.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
It has gone over 317 the past 2 years , once by 4 points and once by 1 point
Prior to that it has never hit that number.
I'd play the under and if they score 318 then so be it
If TMMLK says it's an under why are you still looking for another opinion?Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Only a real degenerate would bet on the NBA all star game.
That said put me down for 1 unit of under 317.5
I saw a Pac 12 tournament game there a few years ago. The venue is fine for basketball.Quote:
Originally Posted by Brittney Griner's Clit
"The last bullet is always blank."Quote:
Originally Posted by Brittney Griner's Clit
Let me know if you need a free room at Caesar's. Just charge everything to your credit card but my comps will cover it. I promise.Quote:
Originally Posted by Brittney Griner's Clit
Wow. Thanks. I will decline because it is not something I need but thanks anyway.
Strangely there's actually some value on the hefty lefty, one of the most overrated golfers of all time, as he tries to hold a 2 stroke lead for his last career win
Mickelson to win Pebble Beach Pro-Am ... -177
Mickelson vs Jacobson H2H 4th Round ... -174
IAPT: What do you see as the correct O/U line for the ASG tomorrow?
(Oddly enough, Bovada doesn't have a line right now at all on the game, though I can bet it elsewhere.)
I see its 318 in most places. I keep thinking it will go under.
Also, I see Curry is +500 to be ASG MVP? Is that decent value, or a sucker bet? Lol @ Bryant being +135 on Bovada.
I don't know if anyone was watching the dunk contest but I had Aaron Gordon at 5-1. That was pretty tough to swallow. Nothing against the -300 Levine but Gordon had the best dunks.
Also had Booker at 12-1 in 3 point. He made the finals as well.
If I had to play something it would be East moneyline but I really don't have any opinion on this game at all.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Ok thanks.
I might fire off a last minute bet on the under. I keep seeing it move up (it was 314.5 when I first checked, now it's 318), so I think I would be best off waiting until near tipoff. I'll decide tomorrow.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Brittney Griner's Clit
i had a couple hockey overs going that didnt look like they were gonna get over 5.5 (2-0 after 2, and 0-0 after 1) so i fired off a semi-tilt / semi-value parlay on:
steph OR klay to win 3pt contest -140
&
aaron gordon to win the dunk contest +450... total parlay value was $87 to win $738
after he grabbed it from the mascot doing the 360's with the hover board i thought i had this in the fucking bag! never felt more jobbed in my life and im from MN so part of me is obv a zach levine fan
p.s. the hockey overs both got there, one of em on a sweet fucking empty netter with 30 seconds to play lol
Gordon had the best dunk and lost.
Should have gave them both trophies or somehow gave Gordon a 60 for the one
I started a thread on this, combine if you want.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
the kobe thing is interesting...don't know if it's gonna be more of a coronation or if he's gonna go all kobe and jack up 30 shots...I could see him winning the MVP in the latter scenario although that price is just terrible...
thanks again to IAPT...ended up getting booker at 10:1...felt I got my money's worth on that bet with him making the finals...
It's unfair to make them shoot again for the 1st round tiebreaker.Quote:
Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis
Did you see Harden put his moneyball rack last and then didn't even have time to shoot them. LOL
Heads up guys - got some decent middle opertunities in the NBA All Star game tonight.
I have Curry at 30.5 and 25.5
Durrant at 30 and 24.5
Westbrook 26.5 and 23.5
Also Kobe to win MVP at +175 is a decent bet. They I honestly think it's closer to 50/50.... Maybe even better.
Oh yeah....... Fix won't be in for this one..... And I'm calling bullshit on the 10 minutes.
It will be hard for Bryant to win the MVP if he only plays 10 minutes, like he wants to. But the odds are in his favor and with the fan vote accounting for 25 percent of the overall vote, Bryant could very likely be holding up his fifth All-Star Game MVP on Sunday night.
For the first time, the Kia NBA All-Star MVP Award fan vote will be conducted exclusively through Twitter. Beginning at the start of the fourth quarter of Sunday's NBA All-Star Game on TNT, fans can register MVP votes during a 30-minute window by tweeting #KiaAllStarMVP and #firstnamelastname in the same tweet.
For the fan vote, retweets will count up to 100 times and the fan vote winner will account for 25 percent of the overall vote
The only problem is Kobe has been playing like shit for the most part. Unless he gets hot it will be tough for him to go 12/16 or something for 25+ pts to lock in mvp.
I personally would love to see him do it but unless he hits a game winning shot I don't see it happening.
If it some how happens then great but ain't no chance in hell I am betting Kobe to win the MVP, especially at +175.
Fired under 321 on ASG
Line rose 9.5 since open
I played under 320.5
Kobe MVP going to close -126 on Pinny
Best opening show ever?
lol there's gonna be 400 points in this game
maybe but the pace in these games can change quicklyQuote:
Originally Posted by rollinx420
You have 80 points a quarter average allowed and the first quarter is typically high scoring with everyone having fresh legs.
This game settled down a bit from what could have been 100 points the first quarter finished at 83.