I think it might be higher than 3, even up to 5 or 6 honestlyQuote:
Originally Posted by Daly
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I think it might be higher than 3, even up to 5 or 6 honestlyQuote:
Originally Posted by Daly
Tell me more about this puff piece.....Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan DruffThis is a puff piece for the casino industry. They love stories like this, because they encourage gamblers to take their shot for this "free money" on largely -EV bets.Quote:
Originally Posted by JimmyG_415
The day of the +EV NFL teaser is over. It's sad, because I did very well with these, though I jumped on board in just the final few years it was viable.
NFL teasers are only a decent bet if the 6-point tease crosses the line of 3 AND 7 points (since these are the most common NFL score differences). So if you tease from -8 to -2, that's great. If you tease from +1.5 to +7.5, that's also great. If you tease from +8 to +14, that's a bad tease. If you tease from -16 to -10, again that's bad. If you tease from -3 to +3, that's also not good, though not quite as bad as the other two examples I just gave.
Secondary factors for teasing call for preferring to tease home favorites or road dogs (but within the parameters described above), avoiding teasing games with high totals, and avoiding teasing teams which tend to get blown out often.
But then there's the payouts. You need +180 for 3-teamers, +100 for 2-teamers, and +300 for 4-teamers. If you don't get those payouts (and you can't find this anymore at reputable books), then you're still -EV, even you tease-select perfectly.
Most people teasing NFL teams have no clue what they're doing, and this is a HUGE edge for the casino.
This piece is promoting that people who teased the games -- even the clueless ones -- beat Vegas for a lot of money. That's a fluke. They are not going to eliminate this lucrative bet for the casino, though.
"You can't bet NFL teasers at Caesars this weekend (h/t @ToddFuhrman) following a bloodbath for books last week."
Does this mean NE and Carolina are both going to win?Quote:
Originally Posted by DalyTell me more about this puff piece.....Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
"You can't bet NFL teasers at Caesars this weekend (h/t @ToddFuhrman) following a bloodbath for books last week."
My honest take is Vegas is in a tough spot this weekend. I think the second they move the line to 3.5 on either game they are going to be awash in Denver/Arizona money and with all the NE/Car money they have already written they are going to be Fuct if either game ends on 3.....
I think it's very telling that the juice keeps moving up but the line hasn't moved. I think Vegas thinks these are going to be close FG type games.
Sharpest guy I talk to said All In on theseQuote:
Originally Posted by simpdogDoes this mean NE and Carolina are both going to win?Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
TMMLK $ TRUCK PICKS FOR THE CONFERENCE FINALS
ARIZONA +3
N.E -3
:ohh
:scalir
Been crushing the French Open tailing a few guys
Yulia Putintseva +150
Daria Gavrilova -110
David Goffin + 160
NBA
Pistons/Pelicans over 204 (placed last night)
Griz/Nuggets over 195.5
Spurs/Suns under 201.5 (Parker not playing and Suns whole team not playing will be a JV game) Spurs win 100-84
Cavs -3.5 FIRST HALF
CBB
Tennessee Martin +6
Washington State +5.5
Do you think anybody on earth took ARK +3.5?
Spurs are 30-13 ATS this year. They keep covering at -12 to -18 regularly.
I should probably just be blindly firing them until they cool off covering.
I'll perms ban myself if the Ducks lose to the capitals tonight. Absolute lock.
bold statement -
Not really since the game was cancelled.Quote:
Originally Posted by big dick
Attempting to middle with Lakers/San Antonio game.
Please note that I have been very cold lately before attempting to tail.
First half: Over 94 -115
Game: Under 198 -105
So you see what I'm trying to do. I think this is because SA seems to put up more points in the 2nd half, but this is a pretty big spread, as half of 198 is 99, not 94. Also, this game isn't likely to be close, so the 198 point total isn't factoring an OT possibility very much.
Also threw in Golden State/Indiana Over 217 just because they keep going over (as per my other post).
Would have also went with San Antonio -16, but they are back to back on the road, so not doing that one. The back-to-back-on-road thing is another reason I am firing the middle, because I think SA won't score as much as usual in 2H.
Good thing I didn't blindly fire Miami under today, as that is likely losing (even though Miami only has 52 points in the mid-3rd).
I'd be interested to see how all teams fair in first quarter and half lines when they played the night before and their opponent didn't.
I'm not sure this gets tracked anywhere publically but anytime I watch the Pistons here being the local team they might crush a good team the night before then come out incredibly sluggish in the first quarter and half the next night even versus teams with .400 records.
Very cold lately, Todd? Did I miss the hot streak? Nice post I bet Houston and LaC
Curry just continues so amazing. He throws up a prayer from three quarter court away that he makes but was too late at the end of the 1st and then makes a 3 from beyond half court to end the second quarter.
Well, the over half of my LAL/SAC won. Finished with 99 1st half points, and I needed 95 to win and 94 to tie. So that was very close to the ideal result (95 would have been ideal).
So basically I need 99 in the 2nd half to go 1-0, 98 or fewer to go 2-0, or otherwise I split that bet.
Golden State over looking fairly good after 1 half.
BTW, I mentioned a few days ago about blindly firing on Miami under, Spurs spread, and Golden State over. Since then, Miami is 2-0 on unders, Golden State is 1-0 on overs, and Spurs are 1-0 in spread.
And as I write this, Spurs are on pace to cover again (up by 13 in 3rd, line is 16) and Warriors are on pace to go over.
So that would be 6-0 if both of those come through. Sadly, I only bet on one of them (the Warriors over tonight).
Well, Spurs and Lakers went off in the 3rd, so my under is dead. So looks like the middle is going to get a split. Sucks. I really liked where it was going after the first half.
And Warriors/Pacers has slowed down, and right now it's a tossup whether that covers.
:gay
This is a max bet no?
You must be tied into the same network as me! Same format, different website.Quote:
Originally Posted by DalyThis is a max bet no?
Anyways I just checked and I have the same exact odds. I just max bet it. Insane
If you got this site you should also take a hard look at Shaq over 10.5 NFL draft. I max bet it at 9.5 but I really think he's a day 2 pick, let alone top 10.Quote:
Originally Posted by jsearles22You must be tied into the same network as me! Same format, different website.Quote:
Originally Posted by DalyThis is a max bet no?
Anyways I just checked and I have the same exact odds. I just max bet it. Insane
Yeah Ive been watching it since you first mentioned it. I missed the better line. Right now its 10.5 -140 which Im not comfortable layingQuote:
Originally Posted by DalyIf you got this site you should also take a hard look at Shaq over 10.5 NFL draft. I max bet it at 9.5 but I really think he's a day 2 pick, let alone top 10.Quote:
Originally Posted by jsearles22
Legit free money to be had here, I played it that Cruz will win as that's how Nate Silver has it.
Code:ia dem sanders 386
ia dem clinton -386
ia rep cruz 126
ia rep trump 138
ia rep rubio 978
ia rep carson 4,015
ia rep field 4,900
nh dem sanders -223
nh dem clinton 223
nh rep trump -112
nh rep rubio 822
nh rep cruz 705
nh rep kasich 886
nh rep christie 2,157
nh rep bush 1,390
nh rep paul 9,900
nh rep field 6,269
***Bad line alert***
Bovada and a few other sites that pull lines have Atlanta listed at +200 to be the first team to 20.....
That should be the line on the Suns.
Pound it and wait till closer to game time and lay some off at another site if they don't catch it.
I HATE POOH
This is why I have laid off all my pats -2.5 money
comment
3:42 PM ET
David Purdum
ESPN Staff Writer
The betting action in Las Vegas is piling up on the New England Patriots, leaving sportsbooks with a decision heading into championship Sunday.
On Saturday, the Patriots were holding steady as three-point favorites over the Denver Broncos in the AFC Championship Game. The money was lopsided on New England.
At Caesars Palace sportsbooks, five times as much money had been wagered on the Patriots compared to the underdog Broncos. At William Hill's Nevada book, 85 percent of the money bet was on New England. The story was the same almost everywhere. Barring a dramatic rush of game-day money on the Broncos, Vegas will be a big Peyton Manning fan on Sunday.
At Caesars Palace sportsbooks, five times as much money had been wagered on the Patriots compared to the underdog Broncos. AP Photo/Jim Mahoney
The early money also was siding with the favorite in the NFC Championship Game. The Carolina Panthers are three-point favorites over the Arizona Cardinals. About 75 percent of the money was on the Panthers at sportsbook operator CG Technology. But Carolina wasn't necessarily the sharp side.
"The smartest bet we took this week was on Arizona," CG Technology vice president of race and sports Jason Simbal said Saturday.
Even as money continued to flow in on both favorites -- especially on New England -- the books weren't budging on the point spread. Asked what it would take to bump up the Patriots to -3.5, Nick Bogdanovich of William Hill quipped, "a lot more money."
They'll move to 3.5 as soon as Pinnacle and CRIS do. There isn't any bookmaker in Las Vegas deserving of the slightest bit of respect.
Both Denver/NE have good defenses.Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
NE has a good offense, Denver's offense with Manning is absolute garbage. Good run game for Denver, but that's it.
Just like last weekend my friends, do not bet against the Patriots. You will be sorry.
Denver is about as good a bet as there could possibly be for an NFL conference championship.
The book canceled my Atlanta first to 10/20 about 2 minutes after I put in the $1500 of hedge money on Phoenix at another site.
Phoenix goes out and wins both bets...
:solidgold:
Anyone on Bovada.... Damian Lillard total points/assists/rebound - OVER 37.
Bet the over.... Lillard vs the worst team in the league vs PG, at home. He just got back in Portland from a funeral.
He's going to have a huge game tonight.
I have quite a bit on Pistons/Nuggets over 99.5 2h... First half played at a very fast pace but both teams shot poorly in the 2nd quarter.
Pace should continue, hopefully shooting will improve.
FWIW I posted earlier that "the sharp guy" said NE and Carolina. Well that has changed today to DEN now but he said Carolina heavy
Quote:
Originally Posted by SlowRoll
Great bet. I saw this and fired o24.5 points. He goes off for 36
Thanks
Sportsbook.com
line just moved to -3.5 for New England
So the most square book in the world just moved to 3.5 on Sunday am. Most books in Vegas and sharp off shores are still at 3 and asking for more NE (and Carolina) money?Quote:
Originally Posted by DRK Star
If we see a NE & Carolina cover today the books will get epically slaugthered.
Read that line above because I think it's important.
Watch your ass today boys, good luck.
I guess this makes me feel a little better about NE. First point of fact other than the Sportsbook.ag move this AM that says the books are a little scared of a NE cover.
"You can pay a premium to buy a half a point. But at MGM in Vegas tonight, they're not letting bettors buy Pats down to 3. Too much exposure."
Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
denver +3.5 -110 on bovada
pretty good article-daly approved
https://www.sportsinsights.com/blog/...tting-preview/