Lakers and Denver can't score.
48 points in 15 minutes.
Looks like a 1-1-1 day unless this markedly turns around.
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Lakers and Denver can't score.
48 points in 15 minutes.
Looks like a 1-1-1 day unless this markedly turns around.
dont try to jinx it dangiel this sushi money
Ticket#:38850921
Nov 23 06:42 PM
INTERNET / -1 Nov 23 04:41 PM
NBA
STRAIGHT BET
[1510] TOTAL u112-110
(1H DEN NUGGETS vrs 1H L.A. LAKERS)
138 / 125
OH AND YOU KNOW IM GETTING SO MUCH SHRIMP TEMPURA BRO
druff your aids rubbed off on me this was such a dumb lock and it pushes
NTERNET / -1 Ticket #: 38861417
Nov 23 07:00 PM
CBB
STRAIGHT BET
[1520] TOTAL u73-110
(1H LONG BEACH STATE vrs 1H UCLA)
110 / 100
0
PUSH
PUSH
11/23/2014 06:48 PM
honestly you just cost me a brooks brothers shirt bro
and not the outlet kind breh
Here are my picks today:
Clippers/Charlotte - Under 199 (Type 2)
Indiana/Dallas - Under 197.5 (Type 5)
Phoenix/Toronto would normally be a pick here as Type 4, but I don't like the line of 208. Too high. In fact, I may drop Type 4 into "unpredictable" mode instead of OVER.
Cleveland/Orlando would also be a candidate (Type 2) under my system, but the problem is that Orlando is about average in points allowed, while below average in points scored. So they're not really your typical "defensive" team, and I think together with Cleveland (a club difficult to predict from one night to the next), this game could go either way. So I'm passing.
Clippers are back-to-back on the road and looked terrible yesterday. 4-10 Charlotte has problems scoring (just 94 points average), and if you take away the 122-119 OT win on November 7, their totals are even lower than they appear. I like having 199 points to keep under here.
Indiana is another team which isn't scoring (90.9 ppg), and they are only allowing 94 ppg. So this is your classic defensive team. Regarding Dallas, I mentioned in their matchup against Houston (another defensive team) that their high scoring totals are inflated by monster outputs against weak defensive teams (Lakers, Minnesota, Philly, Boston). Getting 197.5 points in any game involving Indiana (185 ppg average) is great.
Just placed the following:
$770 Clippers/Charlotte UNDER 199 to win $700
$805 Indiana/Dallas UNDER 198 -115 to win $700
So I got a slightly better line on the second game, U198 -115 instead of U197.5 -110. Always nice having that extra half point to tie instead of lose.
Current NBA betting record 7-5-2.
I see you browsing this thread, Weiss.
Yesterday you directly opposed 2 of my picks, and we each went 1-1.
If you want to bet any of these in the future juice-free, let me know. Obv you ship first though, and we have to both agree on a line.
Nov 23, 2014 06:20:18 PM
5 Team Teaser #379244053
Football - NFL Lines (Game) Total
NFL WEEK 12
(275) Dallas Cowboys vs. (276) New York Giants
Over 41½ Nov 23/14@08:30p
Teased 7.0 points
Football - NFL Lines (Game) Total
NFL WEEK 12
(277) Baltimore Ravens vs. (278) New Orleans Saints
Over 43 Nov 24/14@08:30p
Teased 7.0 points
Football - NFL Lines (Game) Point Spread
Write-In Game @ Ford Field - Detroit, MI
NFL WEEK 12
(282) Buffalo Bills +4 Nov 24/14@07:00p
Competitor: (281) New York Jets
Teased 7.0 points
Football - NFL Lines (Game) Point Spread
NFL WEEK 12
(275) Dallas Cowboys +1½ Nov 23/14@08:30p
Competitor: (276) New York Giants
Teased 7.0 points
Football - NFL Lines (Game) Point Spread
NFL WEEK 12
(277) Baltimore Ravens +10½ Nov 24/14@08:30p
Competitor: (278) New Orleans Saints
Teased 7.0 points
Web US$ 100.00 US$ 350.00
Bovada
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Sounds good. Honestly I just took a few shots included into a few big parlays to make the odds more overwhelming. Obv I didn't connect. If I see some stuff I like and you post etc I will def shoot you a msg
Over 82% of the money is on the NO over tonight with the total barely moving off 50.5
I'm waiting till kickoff and taking the under, contra public play.
NO-3
I don't know why u play nba stuff it's no betting allowed for a reason. It's the hardest sport by far to win at
Small play on the non con over 50.5 since I'm on a cant lose runQuote:
Originally Posted by ShadyJ
So as mentioned before, my system picked 4 games but I rejected 2 of them and refused to bet on them, and then went wit the other two.
The system saw Phoenix/Toronto as an over, and Cleveland/Orlando as an under. Both are on pace to go exactly that way, but I didn't bet either of them, as mentioned above.
I did bet on Clippers/Charlotte under 199, and it went into halftime 56-53. So that's not good, though one nice scoring drought can put it back into contention to win again.
My last game didn't start yet.
One frustrating thing has been the lack of blowout wins. Of my 14 bets prior to today, not a single one was an obvious blowout in my favor by the end of the first half. Some of them ended with plenty of room to spare (like yesterday's OKC/GS under), but still zero blowouts in my favor in 14 tries. I don't know what that means, if anything.
Well while I was whining about the Clippers game, a grand total of 2 points scored in the first 2:26 of the third, so now things have improved a bit.
Uggghhh nothing worse than having an under, thinking it is probably winning, and then a crazy scoring frenzy kills it.
Clipperes/Charlotte had 183 with 3:11 left. I needed it under 199. Game was separated by like 14 points. Pretty sure I got this, right?
No. Tons of stupid intentional fouling (why?), tons of rushed shots by the Clippers (why?) which make it, and suddenly 19 points roll in within the next 2 minutes!
:gay
Indy/Dallas looking mediocre with a 41-36 score at the 5:54 Q2 mark. On pace for 200, my O/U is 198. Really don't want to go 0-2.
I took both of these as well so FUCKKKK THATTTTT...Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Fucking NY Jets.....couldnt you cripples score more than 3 fucking points?!!!
I hope the Ferguson protesters burn down Newark.
Blacks trying to fight out of Ferguson frustration here on MNF.
Quote:
Originally Posted by JUSTIFIEDhomicide
I know it's not over, but bink
Headshot you seem to be a cooler. Whenever you take my picks, they lose.
I've lost 7 so far, (7-7-2 overall), and I think you've taken at least 4.
I don't know what happened on both of these. In hindsight my opinion doesn't change. They just didn't stay under.
We should have won the Clips one. That was a last minute screw job. The Dallas one was in trouble for most of the game.
It's been interesting following you as you develop your process
But the consequence of having to watch NBA games has got to make you second guess wether the money is worth it.
GL
You're right - I like the ranking system that you put together and the general logic behind it. Either I'm bad luck or I've been getting cold decked like a silly ass punk..Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
I'll plan on chasing my bball bet losses so you'll have plenty more chances for redemption. Worst case I could end up the Mayor of Coupon City, CA.
Don't bet NBA.
Keep betting overs for prime time games in NFL.
Ravens WR Steve Smith post game interview was excellent. Guy is a smooth talker.
Dilfer, Rice & Young were owned by Smith's style
Okay, so I'm going to get back on the horse after yesterday's beatdown:
Sac/NO O 200.5 (Type 1)
GS/Mi U 202 (Type 5)
Atl/Was U 200.5 (Type 2)
Same system, so no need for explanation.
Keep in mind that this is all experimental. I am not claiming to be the second coming of Haralabob Voulgaris. I am not claiming to have done extensive research on betting the NBA. This is mostly for fun, so bet along with my picks at your own risk.
I will say that if I continue struggling (or just sit at or near .500 for awhile), I will tone down the number of NBA bets I make, as I'm not going to sink a lot of money or effort into this unless it is doing at least fairly well.
Right now I've bet 16 games, so the sample space is tiny. You can easily get something like 13-3 or 3-13 just by flipping coins.
Wow, within seconds it jumped on Bovada from U 201 -115 to U 200 -105 for the Atlanta game. So I will probably end up passing that one, unless it changes back to at least 200.5 (the Vegas line at the moment). Game starts in 12 minutes.
GS/Mia just fell to 201. I'm still betting it, getting 201 -105 for $735 to win $700 on Bovada.
Sac/NO has just fallen to 199 in Vegas. As I want the over, the Bovada line of 200 -105 isn't good enough, so I will wait.
Well, Bovada is being lame. They usually accept my $700-$800 wagers, but today they rejected my $735 bet on GS/Mia Under. So I had to bet $525 to win $500 instead.
Weak.
Anyway, that's my only bet at the moment, but I will bet the others if the line changes on Bovada properly.
Never mind, I rescind the Sac/NO pick.
Somehow I missed that Rudy Gay is out for Sac, so that changes everything.
Won't be touching that one.
:gay
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
This is ridiculous.. I read through your picks for today, decided :whynot , pulled up my site and couldn't get the action booked on GS/MIA in time.. consequently, you're a lock to win given that I am not on board to cooler this bet. The science dictates victory, GL
I did go with Den -2.5 and also at -4.5 so maybe those will work out..
Of course the bet I didn't do because the Bovada line wasn't good is winning easily, and the one I did place isn't looking good (GS/Mia).
I guess even the Headshot anti-jinx didn't help.
I finally lost a posted play on PFA. I did hit the over though.Quote:
Originally Posted by ShadyJSmall play on the non con over 50.5 since I'm on a cant lose runQuote:
Originally Posted by ShadyJ
Bovada is probably one of the strangest Sportsbooks going. They let you bet big for a little bit and even if you go 50/50 they still cut you back. It's like they hope you are a sub .500 player.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
They also cut you on prop bets kind of fast. I got them for $5K on hockey props and they cut me. Sportsbook/5-Dimes take a much longer time before you get cut.
Gosh I wonder what that's like. ONE TIME I want a sportsbook to tell me I might be too smart to bet 5k on a game. They welcome my money I am usually so bad. Shit, I have the option for organs to deposit when I click that link.
Druff--
any opinion on the Lake show tonight catching 7?
funny thing bovada hasn't cut me off shit but I'm no longer eligible for any promotions when they used to load me up. Now I'm not eligible for even the most basic weekly promos there.
BUT my new "local internet" bookie says his bosses are sweating him big time over my plays. He seriously called me and told me a California IP was showing up in my account and was worried that I was working for a sports bettor "banned from casinos." (I haven't been anywhere near California during my time with this account.)
Of course all that he said was bull shit and he was simply sweating the fact that I'm up around 3500 total after losing 925 my first week. It's hilarious. I can almost guarantee his bosses didn't say shit and he was just mad that I'm cutting into his commission...
Question.
I assume that he gets a cut of all his players losses. Actually I know that to be true. But is he for sure getting fucked when he has a player currently winning? Like lets say all his guys together lose around 5K a week and that's what he's used to. Obviously me coming in and head shotting 2500 last week and being up 1000 this week is fucking him up and that's why he's sweating me?
thoughts?
It's so hilarious he was giving me all this complete bull shit reasons for his call when he was trying to feel me out. This guy knows next to nothing about sports betting. I couldn't control my laughter when he suggested that "a guy banned from casino's" was manning my account for a lol small limit. Oh well the guy is a jerk so I'm loving it.
Picks for today:
Clippers/Detroit - Under 199 (Type 2)
Sac/Houston - Under 193 (Type 2) -- Rudy Gay out, also making under good here. Houston also 2-12 in overs so far!
Memphis/Lakers - Under 202 (Type 2)
Decided to stop picking Type 4 games for now, which counts out Toronto/Atlanta over. Also, Atlanta just played yesterday and is probably tired, so I don't like the over anyway.
Milwaukee/Minnesota is a Type 2, but Milwaukee has been giving up high scores lately in a few games, so I decided I don't like the under, especially given how Minnesota is allowing 110ppg.
Skipping Denver/Phoenix Type 1 because total (215.5) is very high (I think they adjusted a lot for the two-offensive-teams situation.)
I have lost my last 4 bets and last 5 picks, so bet with caution.
Take the under in the UAB Wisonsin game and the Gtown Florida game after that at Atlantis.
Have you seen that gym (ballroom)??? It's like a disco. Plus the rims look stiffer than druff sitting down with Oral Hershiser and Tommy Lasorda.
First half might be the best bet for the under in the second game because it will be close.
UAB vs. Wisonsin under
Gtown vs. Florida under FIRST HALF