*** Official Political Wagering Thread ***

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Originally Posted by PLOL

Moving some money into some of the more FUN markets like NYC Mayor. Yang at 30 cents+? That seems like a screaming sell (and I personally love the guy). PredictIt users have a hard-on for Yang and pump him in any market he gets listed (Dem nominee, Commerce secretary, NYC mayor). I'm actually going to work on buying NO shares of everybody listed in that market. There's no obvious front-runners in the race and some new people are definitely going to pop up over the next several months.

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Here's how NYC is going for me:





After my Sliwa/Garcia NO shares go through, my exposure will be down to $0 (or at least below $1). So getting better than 300 to 1 on the field. Now we just need some new blood to jump in the race and I can have negative risk.

Yang hasn't officially jumped in yet, but he did file paperwork to run. If he goes up to 35c+ when he officially jumps in, I'll be picking up some more NO shares.

 

Yang is NOT the favorite to be mayor. He can go be mayor of Santa Clara if he wants.

After looking in to the race a little more strongly, I may soon be reversing my negative position on a certain candidate and going long. Not ready to tip my hand yet as I'm waiting for a dip. Stay tuned.

:outright

Hint: It's not Eric "Stop The Sag" Adams

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images...a39cfdf51d.jpg

https://media.npr.org/assets/img/201...-s1600-c85.jpg


Oof

I've also been trying to probe OSA to see who he supports so I can bet agains them more heavily. Remember, good rule of thumb to getting rich is to always bet against whatever OSA is doing.

Trump's cabinet picks are hitting 10 cents lol. Please please take the free money before you cash out your election wins. The profit there will more than pay for the cashout fee with zero risk. No need to waste your time in Georgia when there's opportunities like this that you can pick off.

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Originally Posted by PLOL

Trump's cabinet picks are hitting 10 cents lol. Please please take the free money before you cash out your election wins. The profit there will more than pay for the cashout fee with zero risk. No need to waste your time in Georgia when there's opportunities like this that you can pick off.

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I am on megatilt that I immediately maxed out on cabinet markets when the election bets were finally graded. They were 3-4 cents at the time, and I thought they'd be hitting 0 very soon with reality finally hitting setting in.

That's what I get for giving MAGAtards too much credit

New market: Will trump be impeached (again). I picked up some NO shares in the 60s

https://www.predictit.org/markets/de...nd-of-his-term



Edit: It's headed to 50 lol

I'm not touching that market. No @ 60c seems like decent value, as congress has gone home and won't be returning until after inauguration. But just this morning Schumer is talking about reconvening to impeach (if 25th amendment isn't invoked) and Illhan Omar has been drafting articles.

It's chaos out there, who the fuck knows

hey PLOP,

lets fucking go baby!!

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Originally Posted by Rick Sanchez

I'm not touching that market. No @ 60c seems like decent value, as congress has gone home and won't be returning until after inauguration. But just this morning Schumer is talking about reconvening to impeach (if 25th amendment isn't invoked) and Illhan Omar has been drafting articles.

It's chaos out there, who the fuck knows

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we will see where the rubber meets the road on this one...it will be very telling if the Dems don't do anything about this...i think PLOP is on the right side of this one....i have a feeling that this is going to be grand political theatre where some people will use it to deflect from their legatorial impotence on certain major issues that would be a benefit to A LOT of people in this country...*cough* M4A *cough*

Biden doesn't need a highly partisan vote right before he takes office. Why waste political capital now? Just wait 13 days.

Having said that, definitely not maxing this market.

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Originally Posted by PLOL

Biden doesn't need a highly partisan vote right before he takes office. Why waste political capital now? Just wait 13 days.

Having said that, definitely not maxing this market.

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i mean i get the dems obviously hate trump with the heat of 1000 suns...but this requires these dumb fucks to get their shit together within 2 weeks...just dont see it...

think anything close to a flip is a good price here...just the market overreacting to what they're seeing on the MSM...

Uh oh

the person with the nuclear codes has been deemed too dangerous to have a twitter account

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Originally Posted by Sanlmar

the person with the nuclear codes has been deemed too dangerous to have a twitter account

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Apparently, they thought his Tweets were the bomb.

People seem to be lining up behind this. Seems like a waste of time to me

This seems pretty tepid, honestly. Please Pence, do this for us. If not, we may consider thinking about possibly doing this if the winds are just right

Embedded Tweet

Will Druff be able to take books out of the Trump Presidential Library if this happens?

Pelosi: I just seem some more time to think about this.
Dems: Well how much longer?
Pelosi: No longer than a month. Two tops

Even some republican congressmen have been calling for 25th/impeachment today.

Once again, Pelosi is a political genius. Instead of saying NO to impeachment, she just passes the ball to Pence.

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Originally Posted by PLOL

People seem to be lining up behind this. Seems like a waste of time to me

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i think the equity here... is if trump creates circumstances even more destructive than yesterdays in the next 2 weeks, the democrats can hang that albatross around republican necks for like, a generation or two.

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Originally Posted by PLOL

Once again, Pelosi is a political genius. Instead of saying NO to impeachment, she just passes the ball to Pence.

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Impeachment is way more live than 25th imo. Pence has future political ambitions, perhaps even a 2024 run for president.

Agreed that 25th amendment is not happening

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Originally Posted by PLOL

Pelosi: I just seem some more time to think about this.
Dems: Well how much longer?
Pelosi: No longer than a month. Two tops

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this is spot on...all we have to do is have her play defense for two weeks on this which she has shown in the past she is better than the great supersonic gary payton at...

i mean im at basically EVEN money on this right now...i like my price...

We might get an answer as soon as today. Things are moving fast and it looks like this one will be an L. Might trade out and spare myself 30 cents.

Gonna hold on to my "Trump won't file to run this year" shares, and "Trump will complete first term" shares.

It sounds like there are people in the administration who are intent on isolating Trump and running out the clock. Preventing him from starting a nuclear Holocaust by tossing him McDonalds’s Double Cheeseburgers as treats for being a good doggie. What’s crazy is I think I’m being mostly serious, that is the fucking strategy.

Pence is a fucking idiot, he is way too conservative to win the Presidency. He would never get enough independents. His best chance was to invoke the 25th and he at least would be President for a week or so.

I do think it’s probable that the House will vote to Impeach in rather short order, maybe Monday. It will be basically a censure vote as the Senate has been adjourned until the 19th. However, Trump (99.9% sure) will be the only President impeached twice. While no chance of removal, the house Dems can say they did what they could.

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Originally Posted by PLOL

We might get an answer as soon as today. Things are moving fast and it looks like this one will be an L. Might trade out and spare myself 30 cents.

Gonna hold on to my "Trump won't file to run this year" shares, and "Trump will complete first term" shares.

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doing the same...really surprised on this one...thought this was more DC bullshit...funny now is the time that they're choosing to be competent in their duties as lawmakers...

no sorrys in gambbbbbbbboling PLOP...you know that :D

was a helluva bet at even money to bet that these morons would actually get their shit together in less than 2 weeks to do this...never in a million years did i think that would happen...

im still waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay ahead on your advice...now onto the NYC mayor shit!!!

Anyone here smart enough to bet on Youngkin v McAuliffe in VA governors race?

Very late obviously, but I kind of like Youngkin

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Originally Posted by JoeD

Anyone here smart enough to bet on Youngkin v McAuliffe in VA governors race?

Very late obviously, but I kind of like Youngkin

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Last two polls:

Virginia Governor - Youngkin vs. McAuliffe FOX News Youngkin 53, McAuliffe 45 Youngkin +8

Virginia Governor - Youngkin vs. McAuliffe Washington Post* Youngkin 48, McAuliffe 49 McAuliffe +1

Whatever you decide, do NOT specify your choice, unless you want a post like 5 minutes later from Walter asking you to bet $500.

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Originally Posted by tgull

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Originally Posted by JoeD

Anyone here smart enough to bet on Youngkin v McAuliffe in VA governors race?

Very late obviously, but I kind of like Youngkin

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Last two polls:

Virginia Governor - Youngkin vs. McAuliffe FOX News Youngkin 53, McAuliffe 45 Youngkin +8

Virginia Governor - Youngkin vs. McAuliffe Washington Post* Youngkin 48, McAuliffe 49 McAuliffe +1

Whatever you decide, do NOT specify your choice, unless you want a post like 5 minutes later from Walter asking you to bet $500.

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That dude that got bodyslammed in Montana years ago even thinks bet on red

Embedded Tweet

duped_by_smollet: "ya i guess the white supremacists are getting emboldened"


where is that guy? has he been around or is it sloppy joe doing all the 30 year old propaganda guzzling libtard work

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Originally Posted by thesidedish

duped_by_smollet: "ya i guess the white supremacists are getting emboldened"


where is that guy? has he been around or is it sloppy joe doing all the 30 year old propaganda guzzling libtard work

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Sounds like they were plants. Mcauliffe, himself a "Clinton-ite," has too many working on his staff.

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Originally Posted by JoeD

Anyone here smart enough to bet on Youngkin v McAuliffe in VA governors race?

Very late obviously, but I kind of like Youngkin

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I don’t know who’s going to win, but I know it’s not predictive of the midterms or of the 2024 presidential race, even though the talking heads will fill tv time babbling about what the result “means.”

I have been accumulating shares of Trump to win the election, as well as various other markets like Trump to win the popular vote. While the price has increased quite a bit lately, they're still undervalued. Bet accordingly.

There's also some pretty strong arbitrage opportunities across the various prediction market sites. I would look in to these in the strongest possible terms.

Happy Fourth!

- plop

This flip between Harris and Biden overnight is wild

I still predict Trump 335 electoral votes no matter who he is against.


I had Biden 306 last election (thanks for the freeroll plop)!

Daly, where is that +1000 on Biden?

I want that. Possibly throwing $ away, but what +1000 bet can't you say that about?

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

Daly, where is that +1000 on Biden?

I want that. Possibly throwing $ away, but what +1000 bet can't you say that about?

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Well, we rigged the last election and Team Retard failed to catch us, so maybe we can do it again.

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Originally Posted by PLOL

I have been accumulating shares of Trump to win the election, as well as various other markets like Trump to win the popular vote. While the price has increased quite a bit lately, they're still undervalued. Bet accordingly.

There's also some pretty strong arbitrage opportunities across the various prediction market sites. I would look in to these in the strongest possible terms.

Happy Fourth!

- plop

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:to