Couldn't agree more. The fact the Mets are 15-21 but just 4 games behind a wildcard is a joke. Don't deserve to be anywhere near playing meaningful September games.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
NL DH is worse though.
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Couldn't agree more. The fact the Mets are 15-21 but just 4 games behind a wildcard is a joke. Don't deserve to be anywhere near playing meaningful September games.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
NL DH is worse though.
That goal/no goal at the end of the Vancouver game last night sending gambling twitter on tilt.
I checked all the main regulated books in Jersey and you can bet all sorts of crazy shit on these games, but I don’t see a Salami anywhere. I did read an article about it and how sharp bettors can take advantage of it, which I’m still processing. The limits on the offshore books on the salami are small? That seemed to be a big takeaway. Also, one postponement and all bets are off. They need to add a number of runs, not simply add totals because games can get out of control. I think with all the bullshit this year and things like the Giants scoring in the twenties yesterday, they don’t want to bother.Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarThe “man on second” extra innings rule spikes scores.Quote:
Originally Posted by JeffDime
10 games in 7 days leads a manager to more quickly punt a game and save your relief.
The line doesn’t miss close. It misses HUGE
(I’ve had good luck Live betting overs on games where the dog & non contender is losing by 5 or more. The live total can’t get big enough. This is a permutation of the position player finishing a game on the mound live betting the three outcome prop we did a few years ago.)
Dodgers as we speak fits that description. Let’s see
With the totals I have disproportionately taken unders First 5, and have found myself leaning towards taking the full game when I like the over. Why deprive myself the chance of teeing off on some shitty relievers? Hoping I get a chance to hotel hop Atlantic City for a week or two and find some decent spots for the live betting. The juice is the real problem with it. Really ridiculous vig on them.
I see your point when the mop up guys come in San Man. Obviously, live betting baseball you have more time than in most other sports to even look at the juice (in Basketball it’s hard enough to get it through before it changes).
In previous years.... when totals started to get comfortable at 9 . I did a lot of salamis. 2 or 3 years ago.
That the books cannot set a line should speak volumes. I’m listening. Absolutely fascinating.
This is trite but the ball is completely juiced atm. Exit velo on every batted ball makes no sense. It’s just anecdotal observation on my part as I listen to announcers marvel at how a player caught that 110mph line drive. They never ask why so hard.
Hey badguy
We doing tennis? Sake today. Tired of flipping coins. Need the reliable tennis money.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
If you can beat tennis with the juice that is saying something. My horses seem to always have a problem when it comes to beak points. The other points, they seem just fine. It's just those pesky break points they seem to shit the bed on.
One last point on the Salami. I think with all the postponements they are trying to avoid a huge headache. Say one game is postponed but it goes way over the number anyways. All the under bettors are happy as clams they got their money back when they would of got smoked anyway. The over bettors are going to be flooding them with emails asking why the fuck it was voided and it shouldn't matter pay me, etc.
When badguy, krypt, GBCP & I get rolling it’s kinda magical.
Live has been a specialty. Aussie Open 12 hours opposite us. Midnite to 6am am live wagering was ridiculous & good money last 2 years for instance
With regard to juice, tennis is a game you parlay preflop.
I feel like I should be passing out cigars. Talk about beating the line. Tough slate.
This one feels weird, but go with it:
Mets (Wacha) at Baltimore (Means) - Under 10 -110
You can get +105 on Bovada, an outlier.
Have you seen their ERAs?Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Houston first q -2 -115
Jays o 7.5 +105
I believe that COVID MLB mirrors the breakdown of society. You see these scores? Defense hanging on by a thread.Quote:
Originally Posted by MrTickleHave you seen their ERAs?Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Live
I wanted Boston Atlanta so so badly also but weather threatened and I wussed out.
Tickle, you should meet a nice girl from San Diego. Your life would have less pain.
That Baltimore under was actually a good pick. Both starters didn't pitch to their ERAs, and the pick was in good shape until the bullpens blew p in the 8th and 9th. Went from a likely winner to losing by 3.
Here's one for the morning. 10:35am PT
Pittsburgh (Brubaker) +139 vs. Cubs (Mills)
Yes, I realize it's Pittsburgh. They actually have the better pitcher going today. Brubaker has decent stuff, and has pitched fairly well (6 K in each of his past 2 starts), and Mills is a stopgap option for the Cubs. Mills has given up 17 ER in the past 19.2 innings, over the past 4 starts.
I missed you at the GA meeting Simp. We looked behind the dumpster and you weren’t there either. I need you to respond or I’m going to exercise my rights as your guardian.
We are on the Baby Jays again. We need to get down now not later. Sawks Perez is battling a blister and has been bumped repeatedly and well might be bumped again. If not I still like this price a lot. Don’t forfeit the value. If he gets bumped on your action bet and some bum (that’s all Sawks have is bums) you will be groovin’
I know some of us have Jays futures and the NYY collapse is making that lottery ticket actually worth something now.
My posted picks have been pure filth lately. Just awful.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
I do have Jays ML and some -1.5 too. I really think they're due for a big offensive game here today and the Sawks are the right customer.
Happ/Gsellmen pitched a 2-1 game last time out against each other. Another under? Need help.
Speaking of Boston I'm glad to hear Chara is finally maybe retiring. Let's get rid of most of the Bruins that have been haunting us Leaf fans for YEARS...
When fools try to compare the physical achievement of Chara vs Brady I lose my mind.
No one is thriving with picks. COVID sports has been sloppy. Even tennis which runs pretty pure statistically has not been great. Long COVID lay-off is the biggest variance.
Yeah it’s been rough. Padres last night though.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gbGfhT1yehwQuote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
I snoozed on Toronto and hopefully I don't pay for it.
No, I'm not talking about the Blue Jays.
I wanted Raptors -1, and I was around and awake when I wanted it. Then I said, "Let me wait a bit to see how the betting market shakes out", and it indeed shook. Toronto is now -2.5. Ouch.
Anyway, I still like it. I like -1 a lot better, but I still think Toronto crushes this.
Toronto -2.5 vs. Boston
Let's talk about the Padres/Angels game tonight.
"Mike Clevinger to the Padres" didn't make me happy as a Dodgers fan, but I'm still rooting for him today, as I'm firing on the under. Andrew Heaney, despite overall mediocre numbers, threw a great outing last time. Yes, it was against the awful Mariners, but still... he struck out 10 and dominated.
While I've lost my last two unders, note that both times I got the starting pitching correct (it was on pace to win entering the 8th in each game). This one looks like an under to me.
4:10pm PT
Angels (Heaney) vs San Diego (Clevinger) - Under 8.5 -110
Yup.
104-103 Toronto
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