Druff Lakers going way over. Keep betting it don't quit
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Druff Lakers going way over. Keep betting it don't quit
I've bet when I know Druff is betting (on lakers) and it hasn't been very awesome.. 0-2 I thinkQuote:
Originally Posted by simpdog
If you're betting on something you think is good value, please post it ahead of time so dudes like me can tail your HOF picks..
Given your significant benevolence, I suspect things are going ok..
TY
Had a minor rough spell. But am still on a ridculous heater.Quote:
Originally Posted by HeadshotI've bet when I know Druff is betting (on lakers) and it hasn't been very awesome.. 0-2 I thinkQuote:
Originally Posted by simpdog
If you're betting on something you think is good value, please post it ahead of time so dudes like me can tail your HOF picks..
Given your significant benevolence, I suspect things are going ok..
TY
Bet on all Lakers overs is all I suggest right now. Maybe hod off on defensive teams but don't shy from big totals on teams like Dallas
I do use live betting a lot so tough to post ahead.
I prefer to give back via free rolls/contests.
Rice just scored with 5 mins left to go up 18
Hold
You were right on this one. I should stop finding reasons to doubt myself. I keep saying the same as you up there (bet Lakers over unless they are playing defensive teams) and then find reasons not to.Quote:
Originally Posted by simpdogHad a minor rough spell. But am still on a ridculous heater.Quote:
Originally Posted by Headshot
Bet on all Lakers overs is all I suggest right now. Maybe hod off on defensive teams but don't shy from big totals on teams like Dallas
I do use live betting a lot so tough to post ahead.
I prefer to give back via free rolls/contests.
My ATL pick won, but I didn't bet it.
I also had a pick I didn't post here (Toronto -8.5) and that won by like 42.
But I didn't bet that either.
For record-keeping purposes, I only count the ones I actually bet, and I'm 5-4-1 on those. Recently I have passed up a ton of winners, and the ones I've actually bet have lost like 3 out of 4, which is annoying.
Sac is in Minnesota tonight.
O/U is 211.5.
I like the over.
Minnesota is allowing a Lakers-esque 110 ppg.
Sac is averaging 102 points scored and 101 points allowed.
This looks like a high scoring contest from my vantage point -- not too different than Lakers/Dallas which I stupidly refused to take last night (and ended up going well over 240!)
Minnesota is 8-3 in overs this year, Sac is 5-6.
Okay, laid out $805 to win $700 on Sac/Min O/U 211 -115. Got a slightly better line than Vegas, which is currently 211.5.
Another O/U I am looking at is Dallas/Houston.
Dallas put 140 points on the Lakers last night, but you have to imagine they are a bit worn out after such a game, and perhaps a bit overconfident. It's a huge adjustment to play the defense-challenged Lakers one night, and then face the defensive-specializing Rockets the next night. While Dallas is averaging 111.3, this is somewhat skewed by 3 huge offensive performances against awful defensive teams -- 140 against LA, 131 against Minnesota, 123 against Philly, and 118 against Boston.
Houston is averaging fewer than 190 points per game thus far, and has gone under 10 of 12 times. Dallas is 6-7 in overs.
I like under 206 here, but I'm waiting for the Bovada line to catch up.
Well glad I didn't take Houston/Dallas under, as that game looks like it will go over.
My Minnesota/Sac over isn't looking particularly good, but it's still fairly early.
Flurry of points near the end of the 1st half puts me in contention but still behind.
100 at half, need 111 to tie in 2nd. Game is 52-48 so OT also possible. Hou/Dal slowed down a lot and is 53-44 with 2:34 left in half, so that under may actually win, though I didn't take it.
I took both of those as a combo.
also got Barboza/Swanson combo on UFC
Congrats on pulling that one out. It looked pretty bad for awhile.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Lookin decent in Houston for the under too.
Fuck Bovada for not dropping the dumb -115 on Hou under. Easily won.
Won Min over in the final 16 secs.
Been hot with my picks but hardly bet any. At least I won $700 on the Min game.
Congrats Chaps.
So forget just the Lakers... we are seeing a strong pattern emerging in 2014-2015 NBA O/U games as follows:
1) Offensive vs. Offensive - OVER
2) Offensive vs. Defensive - UNDER
3) Defensive vs. Defensive - UNPREDICTABLE
4) Offensive vs. Good-Offense/Good-Defense - OVER
5) Defensive vs. Good-Offense/Good-Defense - UNDER
6) Offensive vs. Bad-Offense/Bad-Defense - UNPREDICTABLE
7) Defensive vs. Bad-Offense/Bad-Defense - UNPREDICTABLE
I haven't run the numbers on this (I would need the full data of each game and each O/U to do it), but from my general observation, it seems this is what has occurred in the first 15% of the season thus far.
Definitions of above:
Offensive = Team which both scores and allows more than average points (e.g. Lakers, Boston, Minnesota, etc)
Defensive = Team which both scores and allows fewer than average points (e.g. Houston, San Antonio, Memphis, etc)
Good-Offense/Good-Defense = Team which scores above average and allows fewer than average (e.g. Dallas, Toronto, Golden State, Portland)
Bad-Offense/Bad-Defense= Team which scores fewer than average and allows above average (e.g. Philadelphia, Utah)
So let's look at today' games. I will put the ones in green which matched the above pattern, red if they contradicted the pattern, and black if the game was expected to be "unpredictable".
Today:
Miami/Orlando - Under (Type 3)
Phoenix/Indiana - Under (Type 2)
Toronto/Cleveland - Under (Type 4)
Philly/NY - Under (Type 7)
Sac/Minnesota - Over (Type 1)
Dallas/Houston - Under (Type 2)
Brooklyn/SA - Under (Type 2)
Washington/Milwaukee - Over (Type 3)
NO/Utah - Over (Type 6)
So today these would have gone 4-1.
Haven't looked at the other days yet, but I think I'm onto something.
Yesterday:
Phoenix/Philly - Over (Type 6)
Orlando/Charlotte - Over (Type 3)
Detroit/Atlanta - Under (Type 2)
Milwaukee/Toronto - Over (Type 5)
Cleveland/Wash - Under (Type 2)
Boston/Memphis - Over (Type 2)
San Antonio vs. Minnesota - Over (Type 2)
Brooklyn/OKC - Under (Type 2)
Lakers/Dallas - Over (Type 1)
NO/Denver - Tie (Type 1)
Utah/Golden State - Under (Type 6)
Chicago/Portland - Under (cannot type Chicago, as they are in the middle in both categories)
So we went 4-3-1 on this day. It should be noted that the NO/Denver "tie" line was 214, but that was after it moved from 213 after being there the majority of the day. So that was a win for most people.
Anyway, I will be watching it closely.
Thurs 11/20:
Clippers/Miami - Over (Type 2)
Chicago/Sac - Under (No Type)
Wed 11/19:
Dallas/Wash - Over (Type 5)
San Antonio/Cleveland - Under (Type 2)
Clippers/Orlando - Over (Type 2)
Boston/Philly - Under (Type 6)
Charlotte/Indiana - Under (Type 3)
Phoenix/Detroit - Under (Type 2)
Milwaukee/Brooklyn - Over (Type 2)
Memphis/Toronto - Under (Type 5)
NY/Minnesota - Over (Type 2)
OKC/Denver - Over (Type 2)
Lakers/Houston - Under (Type 2)
So my strategy only went 4-6 here. Hmm...
Tues 11/18:
Lakers/Atlanta - Over (Type 1)
NY/Mil - Over (Type 3)
OKC/Utah - Under (Type 7)
NO/Sac - Over (Type 1)
Mon 11/17:
Den/Cleveland - Under (Type 1)
Dallas/Charlotte - Under (Type 5)
Detroit/Orlando - Over (Type 3)
Miami/Brooklyn - Under (Type 2)
Phoenix/Boston - Over (Type 1)
Houston/Memphis - Over (Type 3)
Philly/San Antonio - Under (Type 7)
NO/Portland - Under (Type 4)
Chicago/Clippers - Under (No Type)
Results: 5-2
Overall results 11/17-11/22: 17-12-1
Small sample space, but I'd be happy to win 17 of 29 NBA bets.
Anyone who wants to compute the dates before 11/17, be my guest.
Here would be the wagers one would make today according to the above system:
Portland/Bos - Over (Type 4)
Clippers/Memphis - Under (Type 2)
Golden State/OKC - Under (Type 2)
Denver/Lakers - Over (Type 1)
Portland is interesting with Over/Unders. This team averages 104 points scored (above avg) and 95 points allowed (below avg). Boston scores a lot and allows a lot (106 for, 108 against). Portland is just 4-8 in overs so far this year, while Boston is 9-2. Portland has shut down several good scoring teams, including Cleveland and New Orleans. They also shut down average-scorer Brookyln (who I think I might drop off my O/U system, as I did Chicago). But against Denver (a team similar to Boston), the totals were 216 and 243 in the games they played. So it would stand to reason that the Boston game would also be high-scoring. However, Boston has shown a difficulty to score a lot against good defensive teams (Houston, OKC, Memphis, Indiana). Therefore, I will skip this one, as I don't have faith that 209 points will score.
I like Clippers/Memphis under a lot. Memphis has allowed over 102 points just once this season, and most of their games have seen fewer than 100 scored against them. The Clippers are fairly good offensively, but are still averaging just 103.5 points, and have allowed just 100, so they are not high-total Lakers/Celtics/Nuggets types. Line is 198 here.
I also like Golden State/OKC under a lot. OKC has allowed 100 points just ONCE in their past 10 games, and that was exactly 100. They even had a game with a staggeringly-low 69-65 score during that time. There just isn't much scoring in an OKC game without Durant and Westbrook. Here you get a total of 196.
Finally, there is the All-Star-like Denver/Lakers game. These are two teams that don't play defense. Denver allows more than 105 per game, while the Lakers, who just gave up 140 to Dallas, allows 112.5. As you might guess, the books are starting to adjust to these Lakers versus offensive opponents games (not ONE has gone under this year), and the line sits at 220.5. Wow. I still think this will go over, and will fire on it, though I wish I could get a total of 215-217 rather than 220.5.
I bet all 3 of these on Bovada. I got slightly better lines on 2 of them:
$805 GS/OKC Under 197 -115 to win $700
$805 Denver/Lakers Over 220 -115 to win $700
$770 Clippers/Memphis Under 198 to win $700
My NBA betting record (games I've actually bet) is 6-4-1 so far.
im now betting over in that golden state game to spite you dangiel
oh and dan im a little bit of magic JUST LETTING YOU KNOW
Ducks/Blackhawks Combo (regulation W only) +320
You're basically throwing away the equivalent of a meal at Joel Robuchon, but ok.Quote:
Originally Posted by lol wow
its what dave would have wanted rip
Took U221 LAL tonight in one of my big parlays and over 197 OKC
Boy everyone just wants to go against me tonightQuote:
Originally Posted by JUSTIFIEDhomicide
To be fair, I will admit that LAL O/U is my least favorite of my 3 bets.
Clips/Memphis looking good so far. Just 64 points scored 19 minutes in.
Clips/Memphis looked like a blowout under, then a ton of points came in during the final 4 minutes of the 1st half, and now it's within striking distance of screwing me. 53-40 at half.
took a baby stab we ride together dangiel we die together Ticket#:38844403
Nov 23 03:11 PM
INTERNET / -1 Nov 23 02:54 PM
NBA
STRAIGHT BET
[506] TOTAL u198-110
(L.A. CLIPPERS vrs MEM GRIZZLIES)
145 / 132
also this is real
icket#:38849318
Nov 23 05:25 PM
INTERNET / -1 Nov 23 04:28 PM
MU
STRAIGHT BET
[80710] DAL/NYG NO SP TEAMS OR DEF TD -195
(DAL/NYG YES SP TEAMS OR DEF TD vrs DAL/NYG NO SP TEAMS
400 / 205
Got Cowboys by 7-12 @ +450 and 13-18 @ +600.
I gambles.
Somehow this is the game Memphis picks to run a fast offense.
Clippers/Memphis now on pace to lose. Golden State/OKC winning at the moment.
We're gonna hit that Lakers over tho. Feelin it. It's the only one I tailed.
WOW can't believe I tied that Clippers game.
Was absolutely hopeless and nobody could score at the end.
9 total points scored in last 4:18 rofl
In the meantime, GS/OKC put up a much needed goose egg in the first 2:13 of 2nd half
ty TB for those lovely TO's and costing me
GS/OKC looking good for me and not so good for Gare.
70-66 at the end of 3. As long as it stays under 60 in 4th, I win. A little afraid of overtime though.
that was the most ridiculous push in human history
Damnit if this OKC/GS game goes into OT, I'll be so pissed.
175 points with 17 secs left, but 89-86 GS with Thunder getting the ball.
Andrew Roberson tried for the game tying 3 and missed.
91-86 GS final.
:yes