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HFT & front runners ?Quote:
Originally Posted by Krypt
Try the exchanges themselves. Many favorite examples but OKCoin often doesn't charge fees (it's a charitable outfit) and takes positions against customers.
Play the playa Holmes.
All markets have a little mischief. "Light regulation"
The leaky balloon show continues and the general mood right now is 'dump everything you have and rebuy in 4 weeks at 230'.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Krypt
This has been noted for years. Our job is to anticipate manipulation and parlay success on it.
Regrettably, without fluency in Mandarin, we are slightly hamstrung.
I have a question with regard to banks and startups working on harnessing the blockchain architecture for government currency (fiat) payments and transfer and the threat this poses to Bitcoin.
Bitcoin mining and blockchain processing appears to require huge investments in computer horsepower.
Is this a barrier? Is blockchain a terribly inefficient way of processing transactions?
Are all those teraflops skewed toward mining and not processing?
This isnt my strong point but Ill take a swing;
Leveraging blockchain tech for transferring funds is trivial and low overhead. Its entirely unrelated to 'mining' eg the computational generation of valid BTC hashes. The latter is intrinsically non-profitable based entirely on energy to BTC hash costs, and we arent even touching on the cost of the hardware itself.
So when you hear about blockchain tech being leveraged by established financial orgs, I believe that is not related to BTC in any respect.
See that candle on Nov 10? If you look at the candlestick's real body and not the shadow, we have something like hi $336 & low $311. So far we have been having a bunch of "inside days". Once we leave the protection of this Nov 10th candle we'll have some fun.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
Not coincidently, those prices correlate roughly to upper and lower fib numbers.
We need a catalyst. You will see the news in the chart before you see it on the web.
You can spin all kinds of bad news scenarios. EU controls, blockchain announcement, China locking down currency flight.
I am coming up zero on good news.
The thing is everyone sees the dark clouds too - that threat is built in to the price. What is not priced in is the good news. Good news would be the bigger risk as it will trigger short squeeze. Or you could skip the fundamentals and just manipulate a short squeeze.
I saw this while trolling Bitcoin recently.
"Be aggressive in a trending market and conservative in a choppy markets." Vadym Graifer
I was floored then not surprised to see Vad Graifer quoted with Bitcoin speculation. I have written before about my experience 10 or 15 years ago with his site Reality Trader. It was an early paid trading forum. I finally cleared up my trading game while on his site. The guy is a trading savant. Russian cab driver in New York (I think) discovers trading and just had a great feel. Binked huge. The guy was just ridiculous. You got to watch him make a call on a stock and 9 out of 10 times he smoked it. God.
I practice what he preached to this day. The quote above is gospel. Sit and wait for the breakout or breakdown & go hard to the hoop.
I wonder if Graifer has been trading Bitcoin. Looks like he has.
The market has gone to sleep today and I am bored and just riffing.
So your guess would be processing pure blockchain transactions sans mining is not prohibitive. That was my feel too.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
It's coming baby. Gonna disrupt huge. Bye bye Bitcoin. The news will be so big surrounding this that Bitcoin will be an afterthought. No one will attend the funeral.
I read this post in the voice of an old newsreel.Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarSo your guess would be processing pure blockchain transactions sans mining is not prohibitive. That was my feel too.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
It's coming baby. Gonna disrupt huge. Bye bye Bitcoin. The news will be so big surrounding this that Bitcoin will be an afterthought. No one will attend the funeral.
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-34918510
"China's biggest brokerage, Citic Securities, had overstated its derivative business by $166bn (£110bn) from April to September, according to the country's securities association."
On the one hand, BTC should drop because people will be pulling their speculation fund wallets and placing them on more conservative, proven markets to recover from the Citic slump.
OR China's confidence in derivatives starts to evaporate and investors attempt to insulate their funds against a struggling yuan via BTC wallets.
Flip a fucking coin.
It's bled away about 4% of value in the past few days.
Not catastrophic, but it is creeping down consistently without any kind of fluctuation.
Could be nothing, or it could be the march back to 225.
Druff, do you trade the Bitcoin forward contracts, or only follow this anticipating to ride the Schadenfreude Express if/when Bitcoin seriously tanks? Or is it that you are waiting to get the emotional strokes by being able to say "I *knew* it was going to tank!!! (See how smart I am?!!!)" on the radio show?Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Personally I'm hoping it goes down big time so I can buy circa $200
:thisQuote:
Originally Posted by MumblesBadlyOr is it that you are waiting to get the emotional strokes by being able to say "I *knew* it was going to tank!!! (See how smart I am?!!!)" on the radio show?Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
obviously
So we are $359 on Bitfinix & Bitstamp. The chart below that I posted previously was a Megaphone pattern and worked out pretty good
Short squeeze was definitely a component. It was fun to read the kids on TradingView when they got wiped out going short.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
You gotta look at the trading volume for the Chinese exchanges like Huobi or OkCoin. Bigger than the MMM bubble. That's important. Something cooking with the Chinese. Shanghai is tanking again.Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarSee that candle on Nov 10? If you look at the candlestick's real body and not the shadow, we have something like hi $336 & low $311. So far we have been having a bunch of "inside days". Once we leave the protection of this Nov 10th candle we'll have some fun.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
Not coincidently, those prices correlate roughly to upper and lower fib numbers.
We need a catalyst. You will see the news in the chart before you see it on the web.
You can spin all kinds of bad news scenarios. EU controls, blockchain announcement, China locking down currency flight.
I am coming up zero on good news.
The thing is everyone sees the dark clouds too - that threat is built in to the price. What is not priced in is the good news. Good news would be the bigger risk as it will trigger short squeeze. Or you could skip the fundamentals and just manipulate a short squeeze.
I post the following chart as my plan for a long term short. It's Chinese but I am gonna short if we reach $385-389 (the sell line corresponds to US $389) . I should get a good rate on Bitfinix when the hope-a-trons are luvin life.
Lotta Fibonacci and Elliott Wave stuff but the big A,B,C,D is a connect the dots exercise. This is how I see the BTC price going down. The "sell" line corresponds to US $389 or so.
Just posting my bet.
I am also looking at scaling in some Nasdaq Q's short. There is a disconnect between Shanghai and US while all the traders are on holiday.
So what you're saying is Bitcoin could go up or down?Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Phenomenal theory!
BTC over $300 for about a month now. This can now be considered the first sustained period of time where bitcoin appreciated in the past 18 months.
Not sure if that means much for the future, though.
Consider revisiting the idea that Bitcoin is just a new gambling game. It's pure speculation. Did Bitcoin jump because of Black Friday sales?Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Trolling around for some MetaTrader 4 supported exchange that would accept US players, allow me to short & not steal my money - felt like I was searching for a new offshore US facing poker site.
The best example of this was seeing "new deposit bonus" shit & click thru referral bonuses (rakeback sites almost)
Wish I had saved one or two. I'll look again for an example if you're interested for the lulz.
Bitcoin is just a new online game with its own GTO.
So maybe fundamentally Bitcoin dies cause of fundamentals like online poker - but it's still a game to be played with some soft competition.
What is interesting about this perspective is that the doomsayers for Bitcoin here don't have any meaningful demand for Bitcoin as a medium of exchange, while many people in more financially repressed countries do. But the lack of independent information about such demand means folks looking at Bitcoin charts are woefully uniformed about underlying demand most of the time. And that is very different from the information environment for securities like stocks, or even established currencies.Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarConsider revisiting the idea that Bitcoin is just a new gambling game. It's pure speculation. Did Bitcoin jump because of Black Friday sales?Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Trolling around for some MetaTrader 4 supported exchange that would accept US players, allow me to short & not steal my money - felt like I was searching for a new offshore US facing poker site.
The best example of this was seeing "new deposit bonus" shit & click thru referral bonuses (rakeback sites almost)
Wish I had saved one or two. I'll look again for an example if you're interested for the lulz.
Bitcoin is just a new online game with its own GTO.
So maybe fundamentally Bitcoin dies cause of fundamentals like online poker - but it's still a game to be played with some soft competition.
Meaning, you guys are going to drive yourself nuts trying to make sense of these minor fluctuations.
"Woefully, uniformed about the underlying demand..." Please offer some meaningful example.Quote:
Originally Posted by MumblesBadlyWhat is interesting about this perspective is that the doomsayers for Bitcoin here don't have any meaningful demand for Bitcoin as a medium of exchange, while many people in more financially repressed countries do. But the lack of independent information about such demand means folks looking at Bitcoin charts are woefully uniformed about underlying demand most of the time. And that is very different from the information environment for securities like stocks, or even established currencies.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Meaning, you guys are going to drive yourself nuts trying to make sense of these minor fluctuations.
Your backwards African nation will find the same utility at $3.85 a Bitcoin as they will at $385. The next incarnation of the blockchain will provide similar utility too.
This thread is primarily following and arguing price. The move to $502 had nothing to do with someone buying a cup of corn meal.
"Going to drive myself nuts"? Speculation and price exploration and the whole market psychology has followed time tested patterns for centuries. All pretty standard. In this case, bubbles have run a pretty predictable course.
Will traders or exchanges spot too many leaning too far short or long and ass rape me or the crowd? Happens, but I'll go a few rounds all day. This has nothing to do with "underlying demand". At best Bitcoin believers are just betting the future. Demand has nothing to do with it.
Actually, I think the calls I have made have been pretty good more often than not.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar-----Quote:
Originally Posted by MumblesBadly
"Woefully, uniformed about the underlying demand..." Please offer some meaningful example.
Your backwards African nation will find the same utility at $3.85 a Bitcoin as they will at $385. The next incarnation of the blockchain will provide similar utility too.
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This is exactly I what I mean. Why did you pick a country that has very likely has little disposable wealth? In fact, your example here speaks to how you -- and most people watching the price -- don't have much useful information related to the aggregate demand for using Bitcoin. Contrast that with how a savvy fundamental stock trader can read trade journals and other publicly available sources of info on a company's activity to develop a valuation of a stock *independent* of stock *trade* info (e.g. price and volume). And that means that the price of Bitcoin will likely fluctuate substantially on very little meaningful information. In other words, it's price will be highly subject to bubbles and crashes.
This thread is primarily following and arguing price. The move to $502 had nothing to do with someone buying a cup of corn meal.
"Going to drive myself nuts"? Speculation and price exploration and the whole market psychology has followed time tested patterns for centuries. All pretty standard. In this case, bubbles have run a pretty predictable course.
Will traders or exchanges spot too many leaning too far short or long and ass rape me or the crowd? Happens, but I'll go a few rounds all day. This has nothing to do with "underlying demand". At best Bitcoin believers are just betting the future. Demand has nothing to do with it.
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Actually, I think the calls I have made have been pretty good more often than not.
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I am inclined to believe you on this. Because of the Bitcoin price followers on this thread, you seem the most sophisticated and disciplined in your technical analysis. And no one else here is even remotely close to you on that matter (Cough! Cough! Tine! Druff! Cough!).
But don't discount the significant possibility of selective memory. Without independent documented confirmation of the profitability of your calls, you could easily be forgetting a number of bad ones. It is natural for people to do so.