I have Saints too. First drive was going good and Rattler fumbled. Ugh.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
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I have Saints too. First drive was going good and Rattler fumbled. Ugh.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Well that explains it.
Please warn me when we have the same pick.
I just have to root that the Indy game goes over.
Almost got fucked on this over. Cam Ward threw an INT right by the goal line with 7 min left, and a 38-7 score. Indy was just interested in eating time at that point. However, Tennessee got the ball back and finally put a TD through, so I'm 1-1 today.
So overall I'm happy with the day, despite breaking even with my bets.
Survivor EV went from $4400 to $9100.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kalam
me too, know i know. god damn it verm.
also had Chi teased to +8.5 and despite 4 attempts from the 1yr line, zip. maddening.
They owe him $54 million, so he is definitely getting the last laugh all the way to the bank.Quote:
Originally Posted by Tellafriend
Funny. The teaser I had was Cincinnati/Baltimore. I made it when everyone was sure Lamar was playing so I had a horrible line and still won the leg. But didn't matter because of Bengals choke job. Obviously Bengals not being able to get a game winning FG drive in the clutch sucks, but just as bad was the insane amount of running yards they gave up. How the fuck do you let a team with such a limited passing offense run for so many yards?Quote:
Originally Posted by TellafriendQuote:
Originally Posted by Kalam
me too, know i know. god damn it verm.
also had Chi teased to +8.5 and despite 4 attempts from the 1yr line, zip. maddening.
Quote:
Originally Posted by KalamFunny. The teaser I had was Cincinnati/Baltimore. I made it when everyone was sure Lamar was playing so I had a horrible line and still won the leg. But didn't matter because of Bengals choke job. Obviously Bengals not being able to get a game winning FG drive in the clutch sucks, but just as bad was the insane amount of running yards they gave up. How the fuck do you let a team with such a limited passing offense run for so many yards?Quote:
Originally Posted by Tellafriend
but for the fucking i recd from chi and cinncy i would have won a lot today.
had Gb huge tonight. wasn't happy at halftime, so i bet more. worked out this time.
next week will be interesting. there is a pattern here that's hard to see, but exists, through all this noise
Cavs are at Detroit tonight. Both played yesterday, but Cavs have to travel on b2b and with Garland out, Strus out, haven’t looked very impressive so far. Detroit was an ascending team at the end of the season last year and just look hungrier to me thus far. I just expect Detroit to win this one by 8-12 and you can get +120.
Single
@
+120
Open
Oct 27 • 2025 At 12:01:10 PM
Ticket ID: 9764798
Moneyline: DET Pistons
CLE Cavaliers @ DET Pistons
Washington +10.5 -115 at Kansas City
Man this looks like a horrible bet. Pistons missed 19 straight shots. Like 6 layups. I’m going to need a collapse which seems unlikelyQuote:
Originally Posted by BCR
So here's a fucking weird thing that happened.
lowvig dot ag is a non-promoted version of BOL, aimed at sharps. It's basically BOL (same ownership) with identical lines on most things, but some reduced juice on mainstream totals and sides. Moneylines are always the same as BOL, as are half-game lines, etc.
So I just take for granted that I will get, at minimum, the same line as BOL. I never post the lowvig line here because it's reduced juice, and most people aren't signed up there, so I just post the best mainstream book line I see, in interest of fairness of record keeping for posted picks.
Anyway, I saw BOL had Washington +10.5 -115. Lowvig I see -112, so I fire there obviously. However, it turns out that Lowvig was +10 -112, not +10.5!
:wtf2
I've never seen that before. It tricked me. I didn't even look at the line because I was so used to it always being the same as BOL. Dirty.
The other oddity here is that +10 -112 is substantially WORSE than +10.5 -115, so why would the "low vig" book be featuring the worse of the two lines?
Hopefully it won't matter.
For a very short time I had low vig on Betanysports, but they killed that very fast when they realized I wasn't a ploppy. My limits on 5 cent juice lines there is lol $50.
Polymarket was -117 so that was no good.
Year of the ploppy continues. Very public bets have been crushing recently in NFL.
Expert strategy:
1) Pick the substantially better team in an NFL matchup
2) Bet on their spread line
3) Profit
This is the first time I have been on in the last 12 hours, so apologies for past posting.
But Lakers just finished playing a back to back with 4 of their top 6 rotation players out, including Luka and Lebron. Portland -3 seemed like free money and it was.
Bronny played 19 minutes off the bench and didn't score. Not great.
Bronny's offense really is a catastrophe. Not just this game. In general.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kalam
I have to imagine that he won't be in the NBA very long, once Daddy has retired.
Sacramento +9 -109 at Oklahoma City
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
:uhhuh
This went well the entire way. Sac actually led at the half. Almost bet first half ML but I decided not to get fancy and just went with the +9 spread. Knew this one would be close.
Only have one pick today.
The Lakers have no Lebron, no Doncic, no Kleber, and now no Smart or Vincent.
Austin Reaves is now the go-to guy.
Minnesota has been having to do without Edwards, and they've split the first 4.
Too many scrubs on the Lakers with all these injuries. I predict a blowout.
Minnesota -7.5 -105 vs Lakers
I have a parlay that just needs Minn to win. Neither of us is looking too good right now. (Lakers up 13 with 3 minutes left in 3rd)Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
I also have Rui O1.5 3's made. He made one 4 minutes into the game and then hasn't taken another one since. He hasn't been getting the ball much, and when he has he has been driving in. Lakers are up 10 so hard to argue it isn't working, but frustrating.
Well I know why Minn is getting their ass kicked. Kalam has the same side as me.
If someone told me that Reaves would be 6/18 in FG through 3, and Randle and McDaniels would have 48 points together, I'd say that this must be crushing.
Instead, it's down 11.
:fail
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Quote:
Originally Posted by KalamI have a parlay that just needs Minn to win. Neither of us is looking too good right now. (Lakers up 13 with 3 minutes left in 3rd)Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
I also have Rui O1.5 3's made. He made one 4 minutes into the game and then hasn't taken another one since. He hasn't been getting the ball much, and when he has he has been driving in. Lakers are up 10 so hard to argue it isn't working, but frustrating.
We never had a chanceQuote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Single
@
-110
Open
Oct 29 • 2025 At 09:24:37 PM
Ticket ID: 97759067
Point Spread: MIN Timberwolves -7.5
That you can’t bust the small stack in online poker until you have the best of it like seven times straight and Kalam=mush are my only 2 superstitions I totally believe
Quote:
Originally Posted by KalamI have a parlay that just needs Minn to win. Neither of us is looking too good right now. (Lakers up 13 with 3 minutes left in 3rd)Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
I also have Rui O1.5 3's made. He made one 4 minutes into the game and then hasn't taken another one since. He hasn't been getting the ball much, and when he has he has been driving in. Lakers are up 10 so hard to argue it isn't working, but frustrating.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Timberwolves Alt Line-11½ +155
Minnesota Timberwolves-7½ -108
god damn it verm, i had them too following druff. had you timely shared no fucking way i'm getting my feet wet.
you and i need a come to jesus; pardon the pejorative.
LOL. After going pretty much the whole game without shooting any, Rui finally took a 3 point attempt. Unfortunately it was an end of shot clock attempt while he was literally sitting on his ass after falling down. It didn't go in.
Edit: Right after he took a real one and it went in and out. Looks like I am going to have to just take the L on both my bets on this game.
Sucks.
I am obviously rooting for T-Wolves to win this game as that is where my $$ is. But as a Laker fan I would be remise to not notice that Austin Reaves "strategy" to dump the ball to Ayton to make something happen at the end of the shot clock isn't working very well. In the future I would suggest not passing it to the slow, clumsy 7'1" guy with 1 second on the shot clock.
Edit: And Reaves with the game winner.
We needed OT, and while we got close to getting it, we didn't get it.
Of course then we needed to win by 8 in OT, so honestly I stopped even watching.
RIP the PFA Wagering Thread participants, as we all fell for this one.
Verm'd out of existence
The Heat have went to a new push the pace offense and even with Herro out, have scored 144, 146, 115, and 121. And three of those games are against Knicks, Orlando, and Memphis who are kind of good defensive teams normally with slower pace.
The Spurs are 4-0 and averaging 121. They have played the leagues weakest competition so far. Their opponents are 3-17 combined and at the bottom of both conferences.
I don’t like betting overs, but o229.5 -105 feels a bit low.
Quote:
Originally Posted by BCR
I get all of this, and it makes sense.
However, I am going the other way. Books are trying hard to get people to bet under. After it rose as high as 232, it's down to 228.5, without any major injury news I'm aware of. With how I've run recently, that might be a good thing for you. All you need is Kalam to bet with me, and it's a lock for your side.
San Antonio vs Miami - Under 228.5 -107
There is no way I am going to bet any unders with how NBA scoring is going right now. If you bet unders, you are good.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan DruffQuote:
Originally Posted by BCR
I get all of this, and it makes sense.
However, I am going the other way. Books are trying hard to get people to bet under. After it rose as high as 232, it's down to 228.5, without any major injury news I'm aware of. With how I've run recently, that might be a good thing for you. All you need is Kalam to bet with me, and it's a lock for your side.
San Antonio vs Miami - Under 228.5 -107
I actually have 2 props for this game:
Bam O20.5 points
Wemby O3.5 assists
Hit both my props. Your under is looking very safe Druff. Condolences BCR.
Do you bet baseball?Quote:
Originally Posted by Kalam
EXTREMELY rarely. I actually made only one bet this season on a whim and won it. Ironically, it was a regular season game between Dodgers and Blue Jays and I bet Guerrero O1.5 bases and he had a monster game with a HR and a double.Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarDo you bet baseball?Quote:
Originally Posted by Kalam
I actually tried to bet Snell's Total Outs prop yesterday (Some tout on X gave it out, and I decided it made sense) but I guess my book doesn't offer that prop, as I couldn't find it. Sucks, cause it would have won too.
I bet early season baseball when big NBA playoff games happen, so here's the reverse.
Boston -116 at Philly
Toronto +165 at Cleveland
Said to myself, "I don't want -1. I could easily see this game being close. I will take the -116 moneyline instead."
Final score: Boston 109 Philly 108
:yes
Boston had a 22-point lead and chunked it off, then threw away a late 11 point lead.
Anyway good betting choice on my part.
Toronto also blew a lead, now is down 2 with 6 min left. Go (basketball) Toronto!
Toronto wins by 11. EZ game. Ignore the fact that they were down 4 in the mid-4th, and were only up 1 in the final 2 minutes.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
I got +177 on it on Polymarket, too.
4 in a row for me in the NBA
:uhhuh
Orlando at Washington - Under 234.5 -115
Starting very soon
Verm - which side did you have here?
https://x.com/barstoolsports/status/1984761254657868256
Druff - what are you playing tomorrow?
Terrible first half for me but...Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
:uhhuh
Turned out to not even be close.