About 4 million estimated are gone.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
http://www.independent.co.uk/life-st...-a8091851.html
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About 4 million estimated are gone.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
http://www.independent.co.uk/life-st...-a8091851.html
A consulting group analyzed this stuff and the number was very large, but only a guess. Basically there are a ton of 50 BTC mined blocks and such that have never moved. No one really knows if the keys are still known by anyone.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
This is more an argument for BTC being underpriced if anything and a warning to those who might lose their keys elsewhere.
Quote:
Originally Posted by donkdowndonediedA consulting group analyzed this stuff and the number was very large, but only a guess. Basically there are a ton of 50 BTC mined blocks and such that have never moved. No one really knows if the keys are still known by anyone.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
This is more an argument for BTC being underpriced if anything and a warning to those who might lose their keys elsewhere.
nod, i was just marveling at how only recently did people really start taking wallet integrity/security seriously, and how even today, you have burgers like nicehash doing it wrong to the tune of an 85.2m USD headshot.
and for every nicehash there are the hundreds if not thousands of people who fat fingered their key when writing it down, or got their laptop stolen out of their car, or left the usb on an airplane, or had a fire in their apartment, or just neglected to hire anyone to do a recovery on a failed hard drive because they thought a few 50 btc blocks would be worth a 10th the cost.
i imagine they dont sleep well.
translation: 'we're not making hundreds of millions on this so go back into our rigged stock market game.'Quote:
Originally Posted by Forum Wars
Well, it is rigged, but it is pretty stupid to pay $16,000 or 19,000 or whatever for 1 unit of nothing, also.Quote:
Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenistranslation: 'we're not making hundreds of millions on this so go back into our rigged stock market game.'Quote:
Originally Posted by Forum Wars
...and I get it...the $16K or $19K is just that much of another rigged currency (USD fiat), but at least everyone in the world will take it for now and it's not being diluted too fast. I.e. it has a history. Like the NFL.
Bitcoin is eloquently described dogshit....
I made this argument several years ago at the Texas Bitcoin conference, I argued that eventually, in the long term, every BTC will be lost. Most people looked at me like I was crazy and that "no it would NEVER happen to me!". This fundamentally means that if there is any demand for BTC, the price for BTC will go up as supply will, based on natural attrition and more difficulty mining, go down.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatineQuote:
Originally Posted by donkdowndonedied
nod, i was just marveling at how only recently did people really start taking wallet integrity/security seriously, and how even today, you have burgers like nicehash doing it wrong to the tune of an 85.2m USD headshot.
and for every nicehash there are the hundreds if not thousands of people who fat fingered their key when writing it down, or got their laptop stolen out of their car, or left the usb on an airplane, or had a fire in their apartment, or just neglected to hire anyone to do a recovery on a failed hard drive because they thought a few 50 btc blocks would be worth a 10th the cost.
i imagine they dont sleep well.
I don't understand these exchanges.
Gemini actually got within about 200 of the Bitstamp value, which was slightly more than 1% difference. Actually reasonable. Stayed between 200 and 400 difference all through the late night.
Now, with Bitstamp still at about the same as it was overnight (16600s), Gemini has it at 17400 and Coinbase 17700.
What's the deal here? Is it just American idiots feeding into the frenzy during the day, and the more niggardly bitcoin purchaser being awake overnight?
There are probably many that were lost, but also a serious amount that are purposely abandoned, especially surrounding the fall of SilkRoad, as well as ones that are untouched due to prison time or death.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
I would bet that there is a lot of value sitting around from disrupted child porn rings, as well as hard drugs and guns.
Quote:
Originally Posted by GringoStarThere are probably man who are lost, but also a serious amount that are purposely abandoned, especially surrounding the fall of SilkRoad.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
I would bet that there is a lot of value sitting around from disrupted child porn rings, as well as hard rugs and guns.
My understanding is that its SOP for law enforcement to confiscate coins in CP/drug raids.. but yeah I guess with hard rugs all bets are off.
You have to understand that the exchanges have nothing to do with the price. The exchanges just bring buyers and sellers together. Prices are set when a trade is done. Sometimes there can be wide bid offer spreads which can mean that the price is both 17400 and 17700 at the same time, if the highest bid is 17400 and the highest offer is 17700, then the price will be set to the last trade done.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
If there's a wide differential between exchanges then there is an arbitrage opportunity which no doubt someone will spot and take advantage of, and this will help keep prices broadly aligned.
I can believe I am asking this but what's the withdrawal time/process for litecoin right now if you are using coinbase?
They can confiscate coins that they can find, but they are difficult to trace and even harder to use without a key. The irony may be that this state-free currency may have law enforcement wings of numerous governments among the global majority share-holders.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatineQuote:
Originally Posted by GringoStar
My understanding is that its SOP for law enforcement to confiscate coins in CP/drug raids.. but yeah I guess with hard rugs all bets are off.
I would bet that the US, China, Russia, Bulgaria, and Japan have more BTC in "evidence" than any of these "thought-leaders" or cryto enthusiasts who claim to be heavily invested.
Also curious how credit card deposits work with chargebacks, and such.
Now that's truly risk free investments.
Lol you thieving bum.Quote:
Originally Posted by OSA
Oh I know this, except at least on Gemini, the buy/sell gap is very small typically.Quote:
Originally Posted by Belly BusterYou have to understand that the exchanges have nothing to do with the price. The exchanges just bring buyers and sellers together. Prices are set when a trade is done. Sometimes there can be wide bid offer spreads which can mean that the price is both 17400 and 17700 at the same time, if the highest bid is 17400 and the highest offer is 17700, then the price will be set to the last trade done.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
If there's a wide differential between exchanges then there is an arbitrage opportunity which no doubt someone will spot and take advantage of, and this will help keep prices broadly aligned.
I'm just wondering why so many people are buying in way over the generally accepted value on these exchanges, and then other times it's not as egregious.
I realize many of the buyers are not planning upon immediately purchasing something with them like I am, so that makes them care less about the price they're buying in, but still, that's a hell of a spread unless you're just planning upon buying, holding, and selling back on the same exchange you used to buy in.
Also from following it last night, the price on Gemini really did go up and down pretty consistently with the Bitstamp price, it was just a matter of how much it went up or down.
So these price movements are not independent of one another, even when the movements are small.
Also, some markets quote mid market vs last trade. And at night those differences can be huge.Quote:
Originally Posted by Belly BusterYou have to understand that the exchanges have nothing to do with the price. The exchanges just bring buyers and sellers together. Prices are set when a trade is done. Sometimes there can be wide bid offer spreads which can mean that the price is both 17400 and 17700 at the same time, if the highest bid is 17400 and the highest offer is 17700, then the price will be set to the last trade done.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
If there's a wide differential between exchanges then there is an arbitrage opportunity which no doubt someone will spot and take advantage of, and this will help keep prices broadly aligned.
I am glad I am seeing and reading commentary that people are finally admitting Bitcoin is not a currency. It cannot be a currency because it has no float and way too volatile. You can never go into a BMW dealership with a flash drive with 5 Bitcoins and walk out with a new car.
What Bitcoin is now, is an asset. Problem is this asset does not produce any value. This is what is driving guys like Jamie Dimon nuts, is Bitcoin is based on a belief and future value, but nobody can identify what that value is.
Because very few people hold bitcoin in large values, say north of 10,000+ coins, there is a high probability these whales know each other. Because bitcoin is unregulated, these owners of large bitcoin quantities can collude (legally) to sell. It's a tremendous risk to the proverbial system. Wealth could rapidly get concentrated to a very few who have never created anything. That is the issue long term, billions are redistributed, but no assets are being created in the process.
Central bankers obviously are going to step in at some point, as many people mortgaging their homes will lose all their money to the market manipulators. A very few are going to make a ton of money, many will lose it all. I suspect central governments will tax bitcoin profits at 75%, basically destroying it's value. Then it's real lure is to tax cheats.
I don't give a shit either way, I like the story. Personally I am not mad at myself for not buying at $20, because I certainly would have sold at $100. I'd like to see the coins get to $100,000, just as I like spectacular hurricanes, I like spectacular crashes.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Scandinavian Bob
a nuance here that has been fascinating me lately is that just because a single bitcoin costs $17k now, it does not mean that N bitcoins represent an aggregate investment of N*17k.
so the 'logical' value of a bitcoin is 17k... to whomever sells before the music stops.
once people start to panic unload, the value is going to go off a cliff, not slide down a ramp, with a lot of people simply never being able to unload their coins because the next guy is going to undercut the buying price (if there even is one) by 10-20% just to make sure he doesnt get fucked, meanwhile the guy behind him is going to do the same, and so on, and so on, and so on.
seriously one weird tweet from Trump about interpol taking a look at exchanges and the 17k ephemeral value drops to exactly fuckall because there wont be buyers anymore to speak of.
THAT IS SOME SCINTILLATING STUFF FATS
Oh the retweets and reactions. Might make twitter crash with traffic.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatineQuote:
Originally Posted by Scandinavian Bob
a nuance here that has been fascinating me lately is that just because a single bitcoin costs $17k now, it does not mean that N bitcoins represent an aggregate investment of N*17k.
so the 'logical' value of a bitcoin is 17k... to whomever sells before the music stops.
once people start to panic unload, the value is going to go off a cliff, not slide down a ramp, with a lot of people simply never being able to unload their coins because the next guy is going to undercut the buying price (if there even is one) by 10-20% just to make sure he doesnt get fucked, meanwhile the guy behind him is going to do the same, and so on, and so on, and so on.
seriously one weird tweet from Trump about interpol taking a look at exchanges and the 17k ephemeral value drops to exactly fuckall because there wont be buyers anymore to speak of.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Scandinavian Bob
Don't worry, the guvment will bail them out, just like they did for the house speculators.
Hopefully the student loan borrowers firstQuote:
Originally Posted by TellafriendQuote:
Originally Posted by Scandinavian Bob
Don't worry, the guvment will bail them out, just like they did for the house speculators.
This is correct, because there is no value in bitcoin, it just takes as much of a rumor to collapse it. Most of the volume on bitcoins reportedly have been in Asia, just about all retail. You literally have people taking their paychecks and dumping it into bitcoin. In my early 20s, I literally was using credit cards to buy dot com stocks, you get wrapped into a dream and can't wake up.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatineQuote:
Originally Posted by Scandinavian Bob
a nuance here that has been fascinating me lately is that just because a single bitcoin costs $17k now, it does not mean that N bitcoins represent an aggregate investment of N*17k.
so the 'logical' value of a bitcoin is 17k... to whomever sells before the music stops.
once people start to panic unload, the value is going to go off a cliff, not slide down a ramp, with a lot of people simply never being able to unload their coins because the next guy is going to undercut the buying price (if there even is one) by 10-20% just to make sure he doesnt get fucked, meanwhile the guy behind him is going to do the same, and so on, and so on, and so on.
seriously one weird tweet from Trump about interpol taking a look at exchanges and the 17k ephemeral value drops to exactly fuckall because there wont be buyers anymore to speak of.
What we are seeing now is the FOBLB effect. Better known as Fear Of Being Left Behind. There was a guy on CNBC saying bitcoin in 20 years would be $1M a coin. When challenged why a $1M and not a Billion, he had no answer, but got right back on his talking points that this was "Digital Gold", and "Stored Value" and all the terminology that get people so excited.
Years ago in college, I almost bit on an MLM scheme, where the math they showed led you to millions. You talk to a mere 50 people in a month, 10 buy, then those 10 people talk to 500 people in total and 50 buy, then 5000, and so forth. It's intoxicating to say the least. LOL.
As soon as enough people start cashing out, the dollars will dry up instantly. There is not enough cash to sustain a run to the exits as you put it. Greed is so beautiful. Gamblers can never get enough that is for sure.
When it eventually goes donkdown, it will drop 50-75% in one day leaving 1000's of bagholders wondering what went wrong.Quote:
Originally Posted by Scandinavian BobThis is correct, because there is no value in bitcoin, it just takes as much of a rumor to collapse it. Most of the volume on bitcoins reportedly have been in Asia, just about all retail. You literally have people taking their paychecks and dumping it into bitcoin. In my early 20s, I literally was using credit cards to buy dot com stocks, you get wrapped into a dream and can't wake up.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
What we are seeing now is the FOBLB effect. Better known as Fear Of Being Left Behind. There was a guy on CNBC saying bitcoin in 20 years would be $1M a coin. When challenged why a $1M and not a Billion, he had no answer, but got right back on his talking points that this was "Digital Gold", and "Stored Value" and all the terminology that get people so excited.
Years ago in college, I almost bit on an MLM scheme, where the math they showed led you to millions. You talk to a mere 50 people in a month, 10 buy, then those 10 people talk to 500 people in total and 50 buy, then 5000, and so forth. It's intoxicating to say the least. LOL.
As soon as enough people start cashing out, the dollars will dry up instantly. There is not enough cash to sustain a run to the exits as you put it. Greed is so beautiful. Gamblers can never get enough that is for sure.
http://dfw.cbslocal.com/2017/12/12/b...es-investment/
honestly i wonder if this is exactly what china was waiting for before the yank the rug.
He was on CNBC yesterday. Like I said, in my mid early 20s I literally was cashing in credit cards to buy dot.coms in the 90s. History proves when this happens, the end is near. I knew barbers in 2006 that were flipping houses.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
With all do respect the end is near is a buying op for us with cash so...thank you.Quote:
Originally Posted by Scandinavian BobHe was on CNBC yesterday. Like I said, in my mid early 20s I literally was cashing in credit cards to buy dot.coms in the 90s. History proves when this happens, the end is near. I knew barbers in 2006 that were flipping houses.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
Giggles. What does this do differently besides it being faster than bitcoin?
But as the cryptocurrency protocol closes on 18 months without an upgrade, is the fun-loving dogecoin finally dying? And what does dying even mean for a distributed software currency?
According to Jackson Palmer, the cryptocurrency's founder (who departed the community amidst growing acrimony in 2015), dogecoin has seen a broad decline on the development side – a state of affairs that doesn't bode well for its longevity.
Palmer, who continues to maintain his distance although he checks in on the parody currency every so often, told CoinDesk:
"New features aren't being implemented into dogecoin because there's no active development anymore. Eventually, it will become outdated. And with that, the network will organically wind down."
TBF, this was in March
Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
Speaking of China, NEO Coin is @ $36 from $6 dollars in July.
https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies...storical-data/
Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
fuck yeah baby, all abooooooooooooaarrrrrrd.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-m...-idUSKBN1E703O
south korea holding emergency meeting on cryptocoin trading and planning to drop The Hammer on friday.
and so it begins.
Bitcoin games are legal.
Poker is illegal.
All pathological phenomena are not created equal
Sonatine has for years contributed tirelessly & selflessly to educate, amuse and informQuote:
Originally Posted by OSAQuote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
Giggles. What does this do differently besides it being faster than bitcoin?
.... and your still asking questions about utility.
I know you’re prolly kidding, OSA - but this is in bad taste - even for you.
Doge was a Sonatine meme. Ironically it has gone up.