Intraday, OVER Cleveland - Arizona, 10 runs. Looking for one of those 9 run innings since both pitchers are awful.
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Intraday, OVER Cleveland - Arizona, 10 runs. Looking for one of those 9 run innings since both pitchers are awful.
Very well done on the Ks prop.Quote:
Originally Posted by simpdog
In my experience Ks are one prop where an over is ok. Kind of correlates to receptions in football..... some smallish number 3-4-5-6 is the line. Its beatable.
This looks like a total fucking bust. I had no idea the hitters for either team were this bad. What a terrible loss. Fucking baseball.Quote:
Originally Posted by tgull
On tilt large bet over Mets and Nationals. Mets have been hitting a lot home runs lately. Over +9, this would catch me up from the disaster I just pulled.
Quote:
Originally Posted by simpdog
Case in point - if you can get plus €€££¥¥ on Misiorowski over 5.5 K tonight I can see that
Agree.Quote:
Originally Posted by DalyQuote:
Originally Posted by simpdog
Case in point - if you can get plus €€££¥¥ on Misiorowski over 5.5 K tonight I can see that
I'm gonna fire on Misiorowski o5.5 K +110
In fact I'm going to double down and bet on the game, too:
Milwaukee (Misiorowski) -115 at Cubs (Rea)
Also I'm going to bet against Rea's longevity. He's failed to go more than 15 outs in 5 of his last 6, and has been throwing a lot of pitches in general to get through each inning, despite overall decent results lately.
Colin Rea u16.5 outs -125
Third inning cost us. Oh well. Plus $$ it was still the right side.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan DruffAgree.Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
I'm gonna fire on Misiorowski o5.5 K +110
In fact I'm going to double down and bet on the game, too:
Milwaukee (Misiorowski) -115 at Cubs (Rea)
Also I'm going to bet against Rea's longevity. He's failed to go more than 15 outs in 5 of his last 6, and has been throwing a lot of pitches in general to get through each inning, despite overall decent results lately.
Colin Rea u16.5 outs -125
Big ouch for me
Misiorowski 5K, only goes 4 innings
Rea walks 5 and throws 96 pitches... but they let him go 5 2/3 before they took him out
Brewers load bases in 9th and lose 4-3
0-3, all as close as you can get
:gay2
Took me damn near all night to get back to even, but got lucky on over on the Dodgers/Rockies, but broke even, yeah not worth it, fuck absolutely not worth it. Win or lose its awful watching baseball. Whatever.Quote:
Originally Posted by tgull
I’ll salt the thread with an idea
Red Sawks team total over 3.5 -110
Yankees bullpen blowing leads and giving up runs. Yanks better bullpen arms have pitched 2 of last 3 days - Leiter, Hill, De Los Santos. Luke Weaver 52 pitches last 2 nights
Max Fried can’t get anyone out. Hitters have figured out his new repertoire. He’s 6.80 era last 8 starts.
It’s 10 cents cheaper than it was last night.
Sawks are a very attractive plus price +153 too. Bello has done great in New York. Yankees are hitting again though. I like the team total more. Sawks BP is no prize. You could play the over too and lose with pride.
So these are the college football futures I did. Less than the last couple years, but unlike other years I tried to avoid betting futures where I am betting the swing games anyways where I am effectively just doubling down (for example I wanted to do a Stanford U3.5 wins; but I am going to be Hawaii -2.5 against them tomorrow, so passed).
ND U10.5 -160
ILL U8.5 -145
Cal U5.5 -145
GT O7.5 -145
Wisc U5.5 -175
Florida U7.5 -120
Purdue O3.5 -225
Rutgers O5.5 -175
Auburn O7.5 -160
N Tex O6.5 -185
W Kent O7.5 -125
To win conference:
James Madison +150
Toledo +100
Liberty -185
Also for week 0 took:
K State -3
Hawaii -2.5
Last minute:
Nola got bombed in his first return game, after being horrible before injury as well.
Parker has been slammed as of late.
Washington (M. Parker) at Philadelphia (Nola) - Over 6 -105 FIRST 5 INNINGS
Ugh, 1 hit so far through 2 innings.
How is Parker doing so well? He's been horrendous for quite some time now.
0-0 through 3 1/2.
6-1 now in bottom 5th.
Not pretty but I’ll take it.
:uhhuh
I know some aren’t the biggest fan of offshore books but Bet Online is running its $1,000,000 NFL survivor contest again for only $30. Its winner take all and I’m not sure how any “deals” late would work but throwing it out there. They offer deals on multiple entries along with a buy 3 get 1 free offer ending today.
Not posting a link to get accused of pushing an affiliate link but it’s easy to find.
IS THE BOZ AFFILIATE LINK SCAMMING?
Shame on all of us.
Tommy winning the PGA playoffs was the most predictable and on brand thing to over happen.
Two first 5 overs, once again involving struggling pitchers on both sides.
Andre Pallante: 5 of last 9 outings with 5 ER or more, only 2 quality starts in that span
Mitch Keller: 21 ER in past 20 IP dating back to July 28
Yusei Kikuchi: 1.44 WHIP overall, 34 hits allowed in past 27 1/3 innings
Pat Corbin: 17 ER over past 13 /3 innings, over 4 starts
Note that Cards/Pirates is getting a lot of over action and not all that much movement, so that might be concerning. Keep that in mind before betting.
St. Louis (Pallante) vs Pittsburgh (M. Keller) - Over 4.5 -115 FIRST 5 INNINGS
Anaheim (Kikuchi) at Texas (Corbin) - Over 4.5 -125 FIRST 5 INNINGS
One of then hit in the 1st, the other in the 2nd.
:uhhuh
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
good job druff! you scared me a bit w your record this month, so i went lightly, but appreciate it nonetheless.
I don't blame you for going lightly.
I've struggled this month, and my recent wins have been of the lucky last minute variety, rather than the "this was a great pick" variety.
To be fair, my last 3 losses were all razor-thin close, so I deserved better than the result there.
Anyway, I suggested these two because there were four pitchers going who have all shown signs of being primed for a bombing, especially two of them. Was hard to pass up over 4.5 in those games. Nice when it works like this and there's no sweat at all.
This space reserved for Simpdog
Homage to Bichette who should be playing the US Open
I will cosign Jays -1.5 +110
Twins stats aren't great against lefties. Lauer super rested.
Just need a lead large enough to fade Jekyll and Hoffman coming into the game. Also not sure what's up with Varland I couldn't believe the Twins gave him up......he was lights out but past 5 games has given up a run each time.
Glad they had a nice comeback victory, but lost a unit on the -1.5......ughQuote:
Originally Posted by simpdog
Quote:
Originally Posted by simpdogGlad they had a nice comeback victory, but lost a unit on the -1.5......ughQuote:
Originally Posted by simpdog
i got lucky and didn't see this until it was underway and they were 0-1. so i live bet bj ML and covered!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
i think we went 2-0 with this one too; well done.
It’s a fun not profit card.
Chance to scout World Series matchup. Sadly the MLB’s best team post ASG lost their closer Trevor Megill to an arm issue. He’s toast.
Skenes fade cause. Also he’s on the road so Pirates leash that hound. He sells Pittsburgh tickets. They don’t care to put Boston mileage on his arm. I’m backing a Sawks call up rookie pitcher who really never pitched in AAA.
The Athletics are gonna be pretty darn good by the time Vegas rolls around unless they have to sell parts to pay a concrete invoice.
Edit: Athletics have the best MLB bullpen last 3 weeks. Kinda not even close. Shocked
If someone parlayed Athletics and Dodgers I wouldn’t ridicule them. I mean I’d really try. I have impulse control issues when it comes to Dodgers
This one is easy for me to root for as a Dodgers fan.
I am going with the Twins to beat the Padres tonight.
Zack Matthews has struck out 67 in 52 2/3 innings. He also has had a problem with giving up hits and walks, which have led to ugly ERA/WHIP numbers.
I watched Nestor Cortes last game against the Dodgers. His numbers were great -- he retired the first 16 batters he faced, and left after 6 innings and allowing just 1 hit and no walks. However, he only struck out 3, and he gave up a lot of hard hit balls, which happened to go to infielders or outfielders. Overall he's been decent for the Padres, but far from dominant.
To the ploppies, San Diego -120 would seem like a steal. You're betting on the superior team, in a pennant race, against a pitcher with bad numbers.
But here's something to chew on. The money is overwhelmingly on SD, yet the line has moved the opposite way. So I shall as well.
Minnesota (Z. Matthews) +112 vs San Diego (N. Cortes)
starts in about 50 minutes CHC @ COL... Cade Horton of CHC over 4.5 strike outs +105
meh, missed it by one... 6 ip and 4k's... he didn't look all that sharp tonight either against a bunch of no names and a team that is 2nd in the MLB in strikeouts.... with a 52% swing rate (highest in MLB)... Horton's strikeouts have actually been up lately... thought i could get it considering the circumstances stated above....Quote:
Originally Posted by 1dollarboxcar
Matthews was okay.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Cortes wasn't good.
The Twins fell behind 2-1 but went up 7-2, before nearly blowing it in the 9th and winning 7-4.
Overall a pretty solid pick, as I mostly predicted what would happen, and the pick itself won.
Ploppies lose, books win, I win.
:uhhuh
Fun not profit was the theme and we stuck to the script
Milwaukee blew the doors off Toronto and I got a deserved L
Brewers have far and away the best record versus teams >.500 in the MLB
Sometimes ya gotta play the best to find out where you’re at - the Jays and I found out. Sorry Simpdog
Texas +1.5
I think Virginia Thumps coastal today
If you get the full 14 (or buy it for .10) give me Eastern Mich
I do appreciate Druff's dedication to the bit that we are all supposed to pretend that there is square money betting small market teams playing Thursday night baseball in the first week of the CFB season.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan DruffMatthews was okay.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Cortes wasn't good.
The Twins fell behind 2-1 but went up 7-2, before nearly blowing it in the 9th and winning 7-4.
Overall a pretty solid pick, as I mostly predicted what would happen, and the pick itself won.
Ploppies lose, books win, I win.
:uhhuh
There is square money on all major sports, especially in the era of online betting.Quote:
Originally Posted by KalamI do appreciate Druff's dedication to the bit that we are all supposed to pretend that there is square money betting small market teams playing Thursday night baseball in the first week of the CFB season.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
There are tons of dudes who look at the MLB schedule and think they are finding brilliant picks in trap lines like these, and are convinced this is why they can beat sports.
Along the same lines...
Here is another trap line.
Merrill Kelly was brilliant last time out, throwing 7 shutout innings, allowing just 4 hits and 2 BB, and striking out 8. How could anyone back his opponent, rookie Mason Barnett, who has struggled even at the minor league level this year?
It's what I call the Nick Martinez rule. Kelly threw 96 pitches. Many MLB pitchers today are not accustomed to long outings, and struggle in their following start. I believe this will happen to Kelly today.
BOL has a great +122 line right now -- far better than other books, even Polymarket.
So we are doing that.
Sacramento (Barnett) +122 vs Texas (M. Kelly)
This... was not a good pick.
Ploppies likely gonna win.
I should have taken more care regarding Barnett's minor league record (which I mentioned). Sucked too much to translate to an effective MLB start. Different than Zack Matthews who had bad MLB numbers, but was striking people out at a high rate, so he had a shot at pitching decently.
Kelly has looked good so far, too. This is gonna be a blowout.
:gay