Cubs (Rea) at Minnesota (Paddack) - Over 9.5 -115
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Cubs (Rea) at Minnesota (Paddack) - Over 9.5 -115
First tournament in a while where he is giving strokes to the field with the flat stick. Maybe he can work another miracle over the weekend.Quote:
Originally Posted by rollinx420
I can already tell you I will be on R Hatton next week. Might take some Tommy Fleetwood but for top 5, not to win.
I think Swiatek will come out all business and Anisimova will be nervous.
I can’t believe Swiatek 2-0 is 19/20.
Tempted by 25/1 to bagel in first set. Swiatek and under 19.5 is also very appealing to me at 17/10.
Daly,
Any early thoughts on CFB under/overs?
2 early plays I made are ND U10.5 -160 and Illinois U8.5 -145.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Starbucks Spunk Bucket
🥯 !!!! WOOOOOOOOO
Yea it was a great call she wins 12 zip. Only bets I’ve won lately are Iga to win in straight sets. I pussied out of taking her to win it all at 4-1 a few days ago thinking Sabelenka was going to be tough. But today man…I missed this one… good call Iga is a beast 6-0 6-0. When Sabelenka lost in the semis I was so fucking tilted at myself for not shipping on Iga when I had the chance.Quote:
Originally Posted by Starbucks Spunk BucketQuote:
Originally Posted by Starbucks Spunk Bucket
�� !!!! WOOOOOOOOO
BTW if you did pull the trigger on an Iga bagel I would consider you a God today. I would just figure on a dried out center grass court, even someone being totally dominated would get a service hold or two. But, either way, nicely done.
Quote:
Originally Posted by JeffDimeYea it was a great call she wins 12 zip. Only bets I’ve won lately are Iga to win in straight sets. I pussied out of taking her to win it all at 4-1 a few days ago thinking Sabelenka was going to be tough. But today man…I missed this one… good call Iga is a beast 6-0 6-0. When Sabelenka lost in the semis I was so fucking tilted at myself for not shipping on Iga when I had the chance.Quote:
Originally Posted by Starbucks Spunk Bucket
BTW if you did pull the trigger on an Iga bagel I would consider you a God today. I would just figure on a dried out center grass court, even someone being totally dominated would get a service hold or two. But, either way, nicely done.
Iga bagels people ALL. THE. TIME. and is very mentally strong, in contrast Anisimova has been open about mental health struggles and this was her first slam final. Iga always comes out wanting to dominate and make it difficult. Add onto that the difference in experience and it’s night and day
Had to sweat a bit at 40-15 in first set though! Lol
Sacramento (J. Lopez) +122 vs Toronto (Gausman)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kalam
Lot of respected play on Over 7.5 for the Illini, so not sure Id touch a under there.
Too late now. Hopefully they go 8-4. Looking at their schedule now, not as confident they will lose 4 games as I thought I would be. Somehow, Ohio St. is the only top tier Big 10 team they play.Quote:
Originally Posted by DalyQuote:
Originally Posted by Kalam
Lot of respected play on Over 7.5 for the Illini, so not sure Id touch a under there.
Alcaraz 6/4 in-play
6/4 on a generational genius? Max bet please
I am net negative on Alcaraz lifetime but I can’t help myself. He is one hell of an athlete.Quote:
Originally Posted by Starbucks Spunk Bucket
Sigh. Of course I had Sinner outright last year too
Ill be on
Sepp
Hatton
Mori
And on principle Ill take both Ben Griffin and Old pal Cam Smith at these long long odds on offer.
My Alcaraz donation du jour. There will be more in the futureQuote:
Originally Posted by Starbucks Spunk Bucket
A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds
- Ralph Waldo Emerson
and I’m a pin head
I should have listened to you Sanimar a long time ago. Didn’t hedge this one because I was -6500
Live going to 18. Then on the playoff hole the other chick has to take a drop
From the water. She holes it on me. I also had Rahm on LIV. Who was second by a stroke. I had them both parlayed together was Alive for piles I ended up losing a few grand.
Glad I didn’t post Jeeno/Rahm last week here Saved everyone alot of pain.
I’ve gotten used to golf losing most weeks but then big scores can come then you get beat in ways that just rip your fucking guts out.
GG
He has not had a very good year but this tournament always plays different with the modified stableford scoring it really frees guys up. Reasoning is pretty simply T18 and T6 last two weeks and then looking at a solo 3rd here last year with a monster closing back nine on Sunday.
Barracuda - Patrick Fishburn 30-1
The Open is tough. I remember 5 years ago getting some great prices on Rory in Vegas at Royal Portrush. He pulls an iron out of bounds on the first tee and makes a quad. Given how painful my losses have been lately maybe the scar tissue is showing because he certainly has the form off last week in Scotland. I’ll let you guys know tomorrow if I can come to a decision.
Putnam for meQuote:
Originally Posted by JeffDime
Carlos was very unlike himself, no spark at all. I wonder was he hiding a minor injury or something.Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarMy Alcaraz donation du jour. There will be more in the futureQuote:
Originally Posted by Starbucks Spunk Bucket
A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds
- Ralph Waldo Emerson
and IÂ’m a pin head
In hindsight should have known Sinner would have done his homework and mixed it up after RG, just didnt think Carlos would rest on his laurels.
Sinner is unbelievably consistent now and only the very best can beat him. Carlos still suffers from losing focus during matches, he is a bastard to bet and so I can see your predicament lol.
Bogey free 67 would sit a lot nicer in a normal stroke play format. In this format you rather have a 67 with 3 bogeys and 7 birdies… you get three more points out of it. Is what it is. None of this was televised… you would like to see guys take some aggressive lines they wouldn’t normally and prob make bogey here or there. But sometimes that’s just the way it goes. In general you want active scorecards ( as long as you can avoid doubles).
Its an interesting format for sure.Quote:
Originally Posted by JeffDime
Looks like both of us are live after day 1.
Far as the open goes we will know where certain players stand tomorrow. The worst the wind if forecasted to be is tomorrow afternoon. The late/early players might catch a break. english, Hatton, Rose and a few others may be able to score before the weather turns. If the weather holds Scottie Fitz Rai Rham and a long list will have a better shot at it.
Everyone +1 or better still has a reasonable chance, and thats 69 runners!
Great scoring this morning, leaderboard is great.
Rory and Sheffler haven’t been hitting fairways at all yet
I held my fire this week and missed the prices on the players I wanted which included Matt Fitz at 35/1 and Christiaan B-hout at 175/1
Ended up backing them both there anyway at much shorter odds as well as Viktor Hovland who’s having himself a morning.
Rory’s not making the most of the scoring anyway, bad morning for him.
Fleetwood also 3 under through 3
A week since a post here?
Oy vey!
I'll get things going again with 2 bets.
First, you might think I'm crazy, but I'm fading Dean Kremer who has been dominant since mid-June, and picking the Rockies on the road. Why? This is mostly an action-related pick. Line has moved from Rockies +187 to +169, despite the ploppies hammering the Orioles. This is a trap if I've ever seen one, so I'm fading it. That's the entire rationale here. Don't blame me if the Rockies lose 10-0.
Second, we have a Braves game, fading Nate Eovaldi despite his 1.58 ERA and sub-0.9 WHIP. Why? Because he's been battling back tightness, and I don't believe he's 100% today.
Atlanta (Wentz) +130 at Texas (Eovaldi)
Colorado (Freeland) +169 at Baltimore (Kremer)
Was close, but Rockies did it. The books remain victorious over the ploppies.
Atlanta sucks and got blown out.
Funny how my bets yesterday involved the two most disappointing teams in MLB. Had I faded them both, I'd have gone 2-0. Instead I went 1-1. At least I made a profit.
San Diego (Vazquez) +121 at St. Louis (Liberatore)
Interesting night game from a betting perspective.
Kodai Senga has quietly been one of the 2025 Cy Young candidates, holding a 1.79 ERA through 15 starts. The Mets have taken the first two games from the Giants, who mustered just 1 run in each of those contests.
On the Giants side, it's a bullpen game, with Matt Gage going 1-2 innings to start, and then likely handing it off to fellow rookie Carson Seymour. Neither of these pitchers inspire a ton of confidence, especially against the Mets lineup.
However, there are a few factors to consider here.
Senga had a bad start last time out against the Angels, but it goes further than that. His velocity was down, meaning that this could be signaling an underlying injury. He also only threw 39 of his 73 pitches for strikes. Something might be wrong here.
The line saw massive reverse line movement earlier, dropping from Giants +132 to Giants +104 between 5:30am and 2pm PDT today. However, it's moved back up to +113, which might be indicative of late smart money coming in on the Mets. Absent that late movement the other way, this would be a no-brainer reverse trap pick, but now it's a bit iffy.
The bets and money seem to be on the Mets, both by sharps and ploppies, but the books still aren't moving the line back all that much.
With all of that said, I will make a bet on the Giants, with the caveat that I don't love it as much as I have some of my other bets in the last few days. Don't worry about the listed pitcher for SF, as that's unimportant. Leave that side as "action" if you can.
San Francisco (bullpen) +113 vs Mets (Senga)
Not gonna happen for me tonight. Ronny Mauricio decided to finally show his talent tonight, and went 4-for-4 with an out-of-the-park HR.
4-3 Mets right now in the 9th, with Mauricio on 2nd with no out.
Giants now 0-for-21 with RISP in this series.
:gay
Kurt k for the win
Quote:
Originally Posted by Michael Jackson
Our old freind. His win at the Arnold Palmer was the longest odds ive ever hit.
Im mad because i took this week off and i would have def had him (and knapp) on my list.
Two baseball picks today:
Kansas City (R. Hill) vs Atlanta (Strider) - OVER 5 -110 FIRST 5 INNINGS
Rich Hill is 45 years old and is somehow back. His first start went okay, but don't let that fool you. His minor league numbers were lousy, and I expect him to eventually get hammered, starting today. Strider has had a semi-solid comeback season, but he only threw 59 out of 104 pitches for strikes last time out. It's not difficult to see him have a bad outing today, either. Between them I expect more than 5 runs to come home over the first 5.
Also:
San Francisco (Whisehunt) -125 vs Pittsburgh (M. Keller)
Marcell Ozuna must have read my criticism of him on PFA and taken it to heart, as he hit a 2 run shot to make it 4-2 in the 4th.
Winner on that bet.
Go Giants (hurts me to write that)
The Giants really are a catastrophe. Swept by the Mets at home, now they can't even beat the lowly Pirates.
6-4 going to the 8th and I'm almost sure this is a done deal.
:gay2
Fired on Rays but forgot to post it here.
Got +163 on Polymarket
Jays sucking in Baltimore this series.
Live bet +350 down 3-0 after 1 inning.
Just some tennis I’m playing small today.
Unless he has a brutal hangover from losing in the finals in Washington Davidovich Fokina (-155) should smoke moutet in Toronto in a few hours. I’m going half and half with straight at +150. You can play it real safe and just take the -155 or you can take the extra risk and just bet +150 in straight sets. I decided the middle ground here but will need straight sets to make decent coin.
BTW I should mention I know -155 isn’t gonna get everyone rich. +150 straight sets is a decent number. The reason I posted a favorite is because imho he should have been -250 or greater in this spot. So even though he was -155 straight up it’s still was mispriced enough imho to warrant posting here.Quote:
Originally Posted by JeffDime
I’m on Jeeno titikuk for the Women’s Open. Honestly, my head is still spinning from the beat a few weeks ago at Evian. So to be frank… I have no choice but to ride with her. Good news is if you join me you missed out on all that pain and you can get 11-1 because all the Lotte Woad hype. GL.
Hopefully Woad is gassed from last week. Nelly continues to miss 3-5 footers on the reg and Jeeno comes out guns blazing after taking last week off. Little FRL 25/1 for old times sake sprinkled on top. She’s got a morning tee time at least.
Chase Burns has a 6.26 ERA in his young career.
But that doesn't tell the whole story.
He has been unlucky:
- .400 BABIP against him,
- 3.01 FIP
- 45:12 K/BB ratio
Note that today they'll be playing on a race track. I kid you not. Bristol Motor Speedway. It will feature a standard 330-foot distance down both foul lines. Center field will be 400 feet from home plate, with a 375-foot alley in right field and a 384-foot alley in left field.
This is making some people nervous to bet the under, so the money has come on the over -- with the belief that unfamiliarity by both sides will lead to defensive miscues and pitching mistakes. I don't believe it. This field looks pretty generic. It's not like learning to play the Green Monster.
Atlanta (Strider) vs Cincinnati (Ch. Burns) - UNDER 8 -105 (Bristol Motor Speedway location)