sounds like sanlmar was kidnapped
RIP
Printable View
sounds like sanlmar was kidnapped
RIP
They aren't +EV, but EV isn't that much worse than a normal bet. For example, if you tease two 6 point favorites to ML, you will be betting -110 to win 100.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Teasers are a horrible, horrible, HORRIBLE value, unless you go "through" the 3 and 7 point lines.Quote:
Originally Posted by gutI was reminded this weekend that other reason not to do teasers; when you hit, but didnt need to tease at all. Feels like a loss. I did separately bet Bucs -6 at least.
Do not tease totals, either.
So you should tease only lines that are +1.5 to +2.5, or -7.5 to -8.5.
Everything else is giving away tremendous value to the books.
My favorite advice: "When you want to tease, parlay instead."
If you bet one 6 point favorite ML (-270) and then let it ride on a second 6 point favorite at the same price you will risk 110 to win 107. So the EV difference isn't that much. Its not like you are playing keno.
San you need to pick up some part time work is thesparten hiring?
Can't be having you watching movies @ theatres.....or did you dump some money in AMC?
Wisconsin +1
Miami Ohio/BG o 39.5
Iowa/Neb u40
Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
Btw - we would have lost full game Tulane under…… maybe its me but i swear this happens a lot
Quote:
Originally Posted by BCR
Adding Cavs -5.5. Repeat against the Hawks. They got complacent and blew game the other day. Hawks shot almost 50% from 3. Hit 92% on 25 free throws. Likely won’t replicate and Cavs look to avenge their second loss.
Only real value i see on the ncaaf board is over 61.5 ole miss.
Im also going to play over 6 in the vegas/Jets game
So far batting .000 on NBA moneylines, but....
Detroit +170 at Indiana
So far so good (end of 1st Q). I was thinking of taking Detroit +4.5, but didn't pull the trigger.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
I took Hawks O39 wins for season win bet, so been following their games. Weird team. They lost to Wizards twice and Blazers, but have beaten Celtics and Cavs twice.Quote:
Originally Posted by BCRQuote:
Originally Posted by BCR
Adding Cavs -5.5. Repeat against the Hawks. They got complacent and blew game the other day. Hawks shot almost 50% from 3. Hit 92% on 25 free throws. Likely won’t replicate and Cavs look to avenge their second loss.
I asked ChatGPT this after the Chiefs extended their record:
What are the odds of an NFL team winning 14 consecutive one score games?
"Winning 14 consecutive one-score games in the NFL is an extraordinary feat, and the probability of it happening depends on several factors, including the general win probability in one-score games and the team’s specific tendencies.
Baseline Probability of Winning One-Score Games
One-score games in the NFL are considered “coin flips” to some extent, as the outcomes are often determined by small differences in performance or luck. Historically, teams win approximately 50%-60% of one-score games depending on various factors (e.g., team quality, coaching, and situational skill).
Let’s assume a 55% win probability for simplicity (a strong but not dominant team in close games).
Probability of Winning 14 in a Row
The probability of winning 14 consecutive one-score games can be calculated using the formula for independent events:

Using a 55% win probability:

This means there is about a 0.04% chance (1 in 2,500 odds) of a team winning 14 consecutive one-score games under these conditions.
Factors That Could Influence the Odds
1. Elite Teams: If a team is significantly better than its competition, their win probability in one-score games might be higher (e.g., 65-70%). Even then, the probability remains extremely low.
• For a 65% win rate:  or 0.9% (1 in 111 odds).
• For a 70% win rate:  or 1.6% (1 in 63 odds).
2. Clutch Performances and Luck: Some teams may benefit from factors like exceptional quarterback play, coaching, or turnover luck, increasing their odds in tight games.
3. Non-Independence of Games: Real-world outcomes may not be truly independent. For example, a team with a psychological or tactical edge may win close games at a higher rate, which could skew the calculations.
Historical Context
Few teams have achieved such streaks. The 2022-2023 Minnesota Vikings won 11 consecutive one-score games, an NFL record at the time, before losing one. Their success was often attributed to clutch play and favorable variance, but it highlighted how rare such streaks are.
Conclusion
Even for a good team, the odds of winning 14 consecutive one-score games are extraordinarily slim, ranging from 0.04% to about 1.6% depending on their likelihood of winning a single close game."
Guys it is totally a coincidence that one team gets every controversial call or no call and plays by seemingly a different set of rules for holding and pass interference.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
how much notice was there on this?
Probably 5 min. The games scheduled for 5 pm (where actual start time is 5:15) are normally open to bet sides and totals until around 5:10. Props tend to shut down much earlier.Quote:
Originally Posted by TellafriendQuote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
how much notice was there on this?
you want daddy to press the button for you too?Quote:
Originally Posted by TellafriendQuote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
how much notice was there on this?
thanks for the pick druff, got it @+200 LIVE
The real odds are actually much longer than this. If you give the Chiefs a generous 60% chance in every one of these situations, the odds of 14 consecutive victories is 1 in 6173.Quote:
Originally Posted by VaughnP
Georgia vs. Georgia Tech is in 6th overtime on ESPN currently.
8th overtime. Correction, this is on ABC. Didn't realize that from my Hulu.
Meant to post the Pistons +170 earlier, but got an important call which lasted an hour.
So I barely got it off.
I added a bit live as well, at even better odds, like our friend Krypt.
Not much of a sweat.
Very meh day. Was lucky to get split as Iowa bet was only good bet. Miami/ BG win was very lucky.Quote:
Originally Posted by BCRQuote:
Originally Posted by BCR
Adding Cavs -5.5. Repeat against the Hawks. They got complacent and blew game the other day. Hawks shot almost 50% from 3. Hit 92% on 25 free throws. Likely won’t replicate and Cavs look to avenge their second loss.
For tmrw.
Kentucky +4
Kentucky ML +145
Kansas -1
Took a point off Army and ND lines and parlayed those two both at -6.5 for +217
NBA
Hornets +150 ML
hornets form is woeful but they’re steadily improving.
After a quick scan of tomorrow’s NFL and from gut feeling I like:
Pats Colts u42.5
Jets Seahawks u41.5
Panthers +6 at home to Bucs
Saints +3 at home to Rams
Eagles +2.5 at Ravens
Titans +6 in Washington
Quote:
Originally Posted by VaughnP
Traveling so I missed this live. Heard it was a barnburner that the refs blew.
I watched it live. What did you hear the refs blew? Nothing super egregious that I can remember. The GT QB fumble that allowed Georgia to tie he looked like he was maybe down, but they didn't show any definitive angle to overturn the call.Quote:
Originally Posted by DalyQuote:
Originally Posted by VaughnP
Traveling so I missed this live. Heard it was a barnburner that the refs blew.
Maybe the 90% of twitter thats going crazy saying Gt was cheated several times were wrong?Quote:
Originally Posted by KalamI watched it live. What did you hear the refs blew? Nothing super egregious that I can remember. The GT QB fumble that allowed Georgia to tie he looked like he was maybe down, but they didn't show any definitive angle to overturn the call.Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
Clemson -2.5
Ohio St -19.5
Zona +8
Nevada +17.5
You could probably find a call or two or three to support this theory. But at the same time they had at least 3 chances to just win it by converting a 2 point conversion and couldn't convert. I was surprised they didnt just go for the conversion at the end of the first OT.Quote:
Originally Posted by DalyMaybe the 90% of twitter thats going crazy saying Gt was cheated several times were wrong?Quote:
Originally Posted by Kalam
Ok. I started scrolling twitter and the main thing seems to be the fumble at the end of regulation was caused by a defender spearing with his head down. And yeah, you can find an angle to show that in replay. But it was in the middle of a scrum and you certainly couldn't see it live. Shrug.
Ok. You convinced me. I don’t trust Day, but that UM offense is horrid. I was going to lay off, but if you like itQuote:
Originally Posted by Daly
Single
@
-110
Open
Nov 30 • 2024 At 10:26:34 AM
Ticket ID: 8356845028
Point Spread: (2) Ohio State -19.5
Michigan @ (2) Ohio State
I just took all dogs (not ML, the points) yesterday and had a good day. Kinda think the same thing will occur today.
They missed two calls on Georgia last TD. The hit that led to the pivotal turnover was targeting by modern definition and it was never even mentioned. They also missed pretty blatant hold. The PI was legit imo even though it may have been tipped negating PI.Quote:
Originally Posted by DalyMaybe the 90% of twitter thats going crazy saying Gt was cheated several times were wrong?Quote:
Originally Posted by Kalam
Georgia benefited no doubt, but Twitter reaction was overblown imo. But then Ga Tech was in no one’s way for playoffs, so you have every fan of teams trying to sneak in, Sec haters which is pretty much everyone outside SEC country, and just people who pull for underdogs all adding to fury. They caught breaks for sure, but I’ve seen 30 much worse called games this year.
This is what I got so far. All -105 unless otherwise stated. Will probably be more made throughout the day. Bets were made throughout the week, so not same lines offered now. Some I get on the right side of line change, some the wrong side.
Louisville -4 (one of the few favorites I took)
UTSA/Army O52.5 -110
UL Monroe +10 -115
Baylor -1
West Virg/T Tech O64
MIch/Oh St O41
WF +3.5
E Mich +6.5 -110
Temple +10.5
S Car +3 -120
New Mex -2.5
Wyoming +17
K State +3
Auburn +11.5
Oklahoma +6
Jack St. +1.5
Mich St -1.5
NW +7.5 -110
Ark St +4
Marshall +3.5
Virginia +7.5
U Mass +10.5 -110
Vandy +11
TCU -3
Texas ML (as part of a parlay all the other legs hit already)
This was strangest and biggest play of game. I see no other contact other than to helmet. They got rid of he’s a runner element and now it’s just forcible contact to head, so this was shadiest play. And the announcers took a pass on even mentioning it. Review clearly took a pass. I didn’t hate it because I hate targeting if it doesn’t have ill intent, and this dude was just trying to make stop on 3rd and 1, but I don’t know what targeting is anymore if this wasn’t.
https://x.com/ChrisLeible/status/1862697197130715501
-I remember seeing this play live and remarking at the time the head shove at the end seemed a pretty easy personal foul to call. Shrug.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
Under 1H
Mich 21.5
Clem 23.5
Miami 34
Smu 28
Ducks 26.5
Unlv over 55 game
Seahawks ML
Chargers -1
Quote:
Originally Posted by DalyQuote:
Originally Posted by Daly
Under 1H
Mich 21.5
Clem 23.5
Miami 34
Smu 28
Ducks 26.5
Unlv over 55 game
would you put the daly seal of approval on a nevada +17.5 & over 55 parlay?
LOL. In the morning session alone going to lose 4 games due to missed 2 point conversions. So sick. Could have been a very good session if a couple of them had hit; instead will be a loss.
Hit 2/3 on both. Not good enough. Might as well have been 0/3.
Sanheim got a shot off in the 2nd, but nothing again. Needed one more. Other two easily covered.
Sarr was awful and only got 10 p+r+a. I needed 19. Both of the others, again, easily covered.
After hitting 3 in row, I've been in a slump with these. But variance is big.
Just one today:
Indianapolis at New England - Under 42 -110
Fairly cold day, 10 mph wind.