:lol2Quote:
Originally Posted by OK2
15 in the 3rd
I feel very.. limitles right now
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:lol2Quote:
Originally Posted by OK2
15 in the 3rd
I feel very.. limitles right now
Under 228.5 9.44 left
Putting my tilt decisions under some reasoning scrutiny not touting
looking to break even on this clunker
I was just about to comment about Max Christie looking promising and then he hits a 3.7 sec left full court inbounded 3 to lose by 1
229
Fuck
Quote:
Originally Posted by some user
Current odds on fanduel:
Detroit Lions superbowl winner +360
Thankfully something I actually have a dialed in read on was on right now. No bud dwyerciding just yet
Australia v South Korea
over 41.5 and -6.5 aus 2nd qtr (watched first then bet 19-19 at end of 1)
29-8 in first 6 1/2 mins 3.5 left
:outright
I'm taking under total at HT
Korean coach will get the defense motivation stick out of the locker after 35-13 2nd oof
Australian team will cool
u169.5 -120
Late 3's in garbage time fucked it
rip
hit one looking good to scoop
china number 1
2/3
9-19 last qtr with 7 missed 3's in last 2 min
total 142
fuck basketball
Any strong NFL pulls today lads
I’m thinking Miami -7 &
Lions Colts over 50
My pal who has been on a heater kind of fancies
Eagles -2.5 &
Arizona ML
Quote:
Originally Posted by rollinx420
Sorry - daly family traveling. For what its worth I had 13 bets and ended up plus .66 units on the day. Nobody got rich and to be honest I was down three units at 3 so I saved everyone some heartache.
All the sharps in the world love Indy.
I'm not kidding. This is one of the biggest differences I've seen between public betting (Detroit) and sharp betting (Indy).
It's even jumped to +7 from +8.
The books really, really want you to go with the mighty Lions and just lay one TD.
I'm going half/half on this:
Indianapolis +292 vs Detroit (0.5 units)
Indianapolis +7 -105 (Bovada) (0.5 units)
Two totals:
Tampa Bay at NY Giants - Under 40 -110
Tennessee at Houston - Under 41 -105 (Bovada)
Colts have gone missing in the red zone
3 min14 left i needed 2 fucking points and it went 11-0
what the fuck NBA
Split my totals bets (won Giants under, lost Titans).
Colts bets didn't come close. Detroit killed 'em.
Sharps everywhere are crying. Seriously. Every sharp on social media was trumpeting their Colts spread pick. Didn't see one on the Lions side.
I guess sometimes you really can outsharp yourself.
Cowboys, Panthers and Titans are worse than the Colts, and all covered as big dogs. Sometimes big favorites cover and sometimes they dont.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
anyone got any plays for tonight's MNF game? i know what i would like to do, but i would rather hear from all you sharps before i do anything.... or is it just stay away on everything for tonight?
i got under 51
that's what i did, .75 under and .25 units ML chargers +146....Quote:
Originally Posted by DrPeters
under 24.5 first half no good, so sick
I was reminded this weekend that other reason not to do teasers; when you hit, but didnt need to tease at all. Feels like a loss. I did separately bet Bucs -6 at least.
Quote:
Originally Posted by gutI was reminded this weekend that other reason not to do teasers; when you hit, but didnt need to tease at all. Feels like a loss. I did separately bet Bucs -6 at least.
Exactly right.
Congrats that you won, but you just pissed away ~400% of winnings that in most cases you dont ever end up using.
Bet 100 to win 150ish on tease (depending on shit book)
Or
Bet 100 to win 550ish on parlay.
+EV to lose the tease 3 times due to the 6 points and get the full payout when it does hit.
If you have underdog you can get Harrison Barnes over 29.5 PRA at 8.33x. He’s been over this mark last three games. He’s also facing the league’s 27th worst defense.
Add two more legs and you’re looking at something like 80-1
something like this pays 131x
all three have hit these numbers last two games
$100 pays $13k
Branching out a bit because I'm on vacation.
NcaaB Bama U71 1H
Nba rockets U220.5
Nba Jazz +2.5
Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
The guy who cut a promo about playing under for 1h vs full game, and ignored his own advice, lost due to OT.
Still almost pulled it off
1 off with Barnes and Castle. +2175 ticket
Final play was Barnes feeding to Castle. If other way around, I win $4350 off $200 bet.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gPcfXhtVOmY
This seems so unlike you. Care to explain yourself young man? Who are you using as a book here?Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
1 off with Barnes and Castle. +2175 ticket
Final play was Barnes feeding to Castle. If other way around, I win $4350 off $200 bet.
POR/IND UNDER 232.5
TOR/NOP OVER 107.5 1H
bonuses and promosQuote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarThis seems so unlike you. Care to explain yourself young man? Who are you using as a book here?Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
1 off with Barnes and Castle. +2175 ticket
Final play was Barnes feeding to Castle. If other way around, I win $4350 off $200 bet.
these sites dish them out almost daily
underdog, draftkings pick6, and prizepicks are the top 3
Druff is using underdog here
I’ve still been hot, but I’m betting smallish on NBA in general, so if you happen to tail, do so lightly as I haven’t put much thought into them.
Two Heat based parlays tonight. Second is boosted so the top odds are pre boost. They are are on b2b but only played two games in a week and Charlotte is struggling to find offense even with Ball going off. I’ve been betting against the Wizards in some form, but Clips slow pace and I jacked up the number a bit.
For those doing fantasy stuff, I made $ lately being p+rebounds on guards a lot lately against Wiz.
Wizards give up more rebounds to guards than any team in league. I had Chicago parlayed with Brogdon 0 17.5 p+r last night and he reached it despite having a shit game and only playing like 22 minutes. I look every night for whatever guards are playing Wiz as guys who average 1.8 rebounds get six and there is usually value on guards in p+r spots. Average teams are better than good teams and PGs are best value. Have to be selective as teams often blow out the Wizards and dudes might sit 4th. I like stuff in that 15-19 range as opposed to over 38 p+r like stars command as they might not play as many minutes. PGs have a lot of 14 point 6 rebound games against them who aren’t natural rebounders.
Parlay (2 Picks)0 of 2 settled
Nov 27 • 2024 At 04:08:52 PM
Ticket ID: 8341456675
Moneyline: MIA Heat
MIA Heat @ CHA Hornets
Total Points: Under 230
LA Clippers @ WAS Wizards
Odds:
+136
Parlay (2 Picks)0 of 2 settled
Nov 27 • 2024 At 04:07:30 PM
Ticket ID: 8341455
Point Spread: MIA Heat -2.0 @ -141
MIA Heat @ CHA Hornets
Point Spread: CLE Cavaliers -5.5 @ -225
ATL Hawks @ CLE Cavaliers
Odds:
+148
+185
Knicks at Dallas - Under 232 -110
Teasers are a horrible, horrible, HORRIBLE value, unless you go "through" the 3 and 7 point lines.Quote:
Originally Posted by gutI was reminded this weekend that other reason not to do teasers; when you hit, but didnt need to tease at all. Feels like a loss. I did separately bet Bucs -6 at least.
Do not tease totals, either.
So you should tease only lines that are +1.5 to +2.5, or -7.5 to -8.5.
Everything else is giving away tremendous value to the books.
My favorite advice: "When you want to tease, parlay instead."
To explain my prop betting further:
Willie got me into this. Blame him.
In California, for whatever reason, player prop betting has become legal through DFS sites. However, these have to be parlays, so there's no straight up betting on props. I believe this is now legal in most states.
There are legalized sites such as Draftkings, Underdog, and Prizepicks which provide these bets.
Normally the odds suck and it's -EV even if you're skilled. However, bonuses and promos (given several times per week) can turn it around in your favor.
In the bets I've been posting, Underdog has been giving me a "50% profit boost", which sounds tremendous, but in reality takes it to fairly close to 0 EV. However, you can bust over that 0 EV by finding props which are mislined there, which I usually do by searching their action/lines elsewhere. I bet the ones where the sharps seem to be betting up one side heavily on the books, but where Underdog hasn't yet adjusted enough (or at all).
In some cases, the prop picks are my own, and unrelated to the above. In other case, my research into these props, including reading sharps' opinions of good props for the day, can also play into it.
I struggled for a bit, then miraculously hit three in a row (+750, +750, +577), as I posted here last week. Then I did that one yesterday for +2175 (!!), and it came one point and one assist away from hitting. So close, yet so far away.
Here's today, in college BB:
Happy thanksgiving
Bears +10
Giants U17.5 1h
Tulane u27.5 1h
No NHL. Tuned into the Bears Lions. Mother of god this is dreadful shite. Traditional though
NFL or Wicked.
Gonna join the tweeners and see what looks to be a woke movie. Obv the sharp play
Sad
Happy Thanksgiving you crazy American lovable bastards.
San you don’t strike me as the woke movie type lol
Jesus BuddyQuote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
How was the movie?Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar