Interesting. For the life of me, I can't understand how they can settle NC and MN but can't settle this:Quote:
Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis
https://www.predictit.org/markets/de...r-vote-in-2020
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Interesting. For the life of me, I can't understand how they can settle NC and MN but can't settle this:Quote:
Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis
https://www.predictit.org/markets/de...r-vote-in-2020
Very sane and normal. Will go to 15 cents after our future former president RTs it.
https://www.predictit.org/markets/de...ntial-election
fuck me seeing it at 9 and i maxed out at 5...goddamn it...Quote:
Originally Posted by PLOL
It actually went to 18 lmao. MAGA stupidity has no limit.Quote:
Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenisfuck me seeing it at 9 and i maxed out at 5...goddamn it...Quote:
Originally Posted by PLOL
jesus christ...you are now hurting my soul PLOP...
i thought i was fucking stealing at 5...
In all seriousness, I just made a Predictit account minutes ago. I'm surprised how fast and easy it was to do that and load several thousand.
I am tilted by the caps on some of these markets. I don't quite understand how it works, but there are certain things I wanted to bet on that it won't let me.
Just dabbling a bit for now. Pushing buttons. In at 89/86/84 respectively
I missed the post about linked margins, so now I will try to wrap my brain around how that math works and seek opportunities there.
EDIT: Okay cool I think I figured it out, and managed to effectively get Biden PA > 75k MOV for 85c. Thanks PLOP!
Hell yes. I got a worse price than was available when you wrote this, but still managed to get GOP NO for 79c which is still insane value imoQuote:
Originally Posted by PLOL
If there's a tiny silver lining in the fact that half of America is being groomed as Trumptard sheep, it's the fact that people who still live in reality will run circles around them. You can't function in modern society if you live in a counterfactual bubble.Quote:
Originally Posted by PLOL
What are some easy ways to get money up on that site? Don't they rape you on a cash out?Quote:
Originally Posted by Rick SanchezIn all seriousness, I just made a Predictit account minutes ago. I'm surprised how fast and easy it was to do that and load several thousand.
I am tilted by the caps on some of these markets. I don't quite understand how it works, but there are certain things I wanted to bet on that it won't let me.
Just dabbling a bit for now. Pushing buttons. In at 89/86/84 respectively
Deposit with a CC that gives you 2%+ cash back. It's a legal site and they take credit cards. Also take the $20 new user bonus.Quote:
Originally Posted by Walter SobchakWhat are some easy ways to get money up on that site? Don't they rape you on a cash out?Quote:
Originally Posted by Rick SanchezIn all seriousness, I just made a Predictit account minutes ago. I'm surprised how fast and easy it was to do that and load several thousand.
I am tilted by the caps on some of these markets. I don't quite understand how it works, but there are certain things I wanted to bet on that it won't let me.
Just dabbling a bit for now. Pushing buttons. In at 89/86/84 respectively
As Thomas pointed out, many markets have hit their 5k trader cap, but there's still plenty of equivalency markets. If you're buying a market at 89 and cashing out right after, probably not worth it because you're paying 5% at cashout. But it's worth it if you're going to run that money through multiple markets before cashing out. And it's still worth it when you can buy free money markets in the high 70s still. Be patient and wait for certain brackets to surge. If it takes several days to get filled, that's OK.
If it takes a few days to get filled is it possible to over-commit and not have the funds to fill orders?Quote:
Originally Posted by PLOLDeposit with a CC that gives you 2%+ cash back. It's a legal site and they take credit cards. Also take the $20 new user bonus.Quote:
Originally Posted by Walter Sobchak
As Thomas pointed out, many markets have hit their 5k trader cap, but there's still plenty of equivalency markets. If you're buying a market at 89 and cashing out right after, probably not worth it because you're paying 5% at cashout. But it's worth it if you're going to run that money through multiple markets before cashing out. And it's still worth it when you can buy free money markets in the high 70s still. Be patient and wait for certain brackets to surge. If it takes several days to get filled, that's OK.
No. You can have more in bids than you can afford to cover across multiple markets. The system is okay with you doing that.Quote:
Originally Posted by Walter SobchakIf it takes a few days to get filled is it possible to over-commit and not have the funds to fill orders?Quote:
Originally Posted by PLOL
Let's say you have $75 in your account. You can put in bids to buy 100 shares at 75 cents in 10 different markets, even though it would cost $750 to cover all those bids if they all went through. However, as soon as somebody matches your offer in one of the markets, your bids in the other 9 markets will be cancelled automatically because now you can't afford to cover any of them. You can never have a negative balance.
Awesome thanks!Quote:
Originally Posted by PLOLNo. You can have more in bids than you can afford to cover across multiple markets. The system is okay with you doing that.Quote:
Originally Posted by Walter Sobchak
Let's say you have $75 in your account. You can put in bids to buy 100 shares at 75 cents in 10 different markets, even though it would cost $750 to cover all those bids if they all went through. However, as soon as somebody matches your offer in one of the markets, your bids in the other 9 markets will be cancelled automatically because now you can't afford to cover any of them. You can never have a negative balance.
Today is the deadline for requesting a recount in Wisconsin, and I woke up to see that it's still trading at 13c.
So I maxed out on No, just as news came out that Trump will be requesting recounts in two individual counties.
However, this market is for a statewide recount so I think this should be fine?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rick SanchezToday is the deadline for requesting a recount in Wisconsin, and I woke up to see that it's still trading at 13c.
So I maxed out on No, just as news came out that Trump will be requesting recounts in two individual counties.
However, this market is for a statewide recount so I think this should be fine?
Yes. You missed the ride though. First news broke that there will be a recount and NO shares plummeted. Then there was breaking news that there will NOT be a statewide recount just a few counties and it skyrocketed again. Luckily I was there and picked up shares once the 2nd tweet hit.
Fun.Quote:
Originally Posted by Rick SanchezToday is the deadline for requesting a recount in Wisconsin, and I woke up to see that it's still trading at 13c.
So I maxed out on No, just as news came out that Trump will be requesting recounts in two individual counties.
However, this market is for a statewide recount so I think this should be fine?
I just bailed, selling @ 92c for a modest profit. I realized I'm essentially betting on the Trump campaign to behave rationally. There's just too much free money on PI to be taking risks like that.
*ahem* this was when it was trading at 50/50.Quote:
Originally Posted by PLOL
Now gather round for OSA story time.
It all starts with a careful research project by our friend OSA.
Since OSA has done the anti-research for us, it allows me to take the opposite position and make some money!
I'll give OSA credit, he was smart enough to not take the $1k bet against me. Kudos.
But he does insist on being stubborn and digging in.
Lol indeed. I just hope we all learned a valuable lesson here. Also, I am starting a service where I give out anti-OSA picks. Unfortunately, because this info is so valuable I cannot continue to give it away for free. I will be charging something very reasonable like $10/mo and I'll be sending out weekly emails. DM to be added to the list.
Let's check in to see how OSA's other pick is going. Is it at 40 cents yet?Quote:
Originally Posted by OSAQuote:
Originally Posted by PLOL
Might wanna recheck that. Biden 90-105k will be 40c in a few days. Get in early guys.
Oh.... yikes. Down to 13.
https://www.predictit.org/markets/de...n-Pennsylvania
A lot of movement in the cabinet markets recently. I scooped up some more NO shares for Pompeo and Ben Carson this morning at 84c. Great value!
Here's an interesting market that I haven't messed with yet. I'm tempted to fire on all the Nos down to Dec22, which is effectively like betting "Yes Dec22 or later" at 16c. Emily Murphy is a Trump stooge who won't even answer what condition she is waiting for to do her job. She just might go the distance.
If I do it won't be for max bet, as this is actually gambling and not free money. It's better to bet on outcomes that have already happened!
Carson went to 23 cents a few hours ago, lol. Maybe Sleepy Joe will keep him on?Quote:
Originally Posted by Rick SanchezA lot of movement in the cabinet markets recently. I scooped up some more NO shares for Pompeo and Ben Carson this morning at 84c. Great value!
Once the states start paying out, I'll be moving more money into the cabinet markets.
Cabinet markets?Quote:
Originally Posted by PLOL
What a delightful hobby. My mind is blown
At some point you have to describe your discipline to keep your mind unadulterated by sosh noise and infotainment like Fox & CNN
Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarCabinet markets?Quote:
Originally Posted by PLOL
What a delightful hobby. My mind is blown
At some point you have to describe your discipline to keep your mind unadulterated by sosh noise and infotainment like Fox & CNN
Quote:
Originally Posted by PLOLLet's check in to see how OSA's other pick is going. Is it at 40 cents yet?Quote:
Originally Posted by OSA
Oh.... yikes. Down to 13.
https://www.predictit.org/markets/de...n-Pennsylvania
Final check-in on OSA's stellar prediction. Now at 2 cents. Yikes. Thankfully OSA's reputation is pretty well known to where I don't think anybody is dumb enough to listen to his picks.
Just a heads up, you may want to short SWBI. OSA has a large long position on it. Could be a good opposite pick.
just curious, anybody had any sportsbook pay them out yet?
still waiting on mine...not expecting anything until it's officially official, but just wanted to see if anybody else is in the same boat...
I’m owed 4K stillQuote:
Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis
WOW, I really wasn't expecting this. Nov 23 or earlier was the least likely in my opinion and was also the concensus on PI. But here we are. I'm glad I never bet on this.Quote:
Originally Posted by Rick SanchezHere's an interesting market that I haven't messed with yet. I'm tempted to fire on all the Nos down to Dec22, which is effectively like betting "Yes Dec22 or later" at 16c. Emily Murphy is a Trump stooge who won't even answer what condition she is waiting for to do her job. She just might go the distance.
If I do it won't be for max bet, as this is actually gambling and not free money. It's better to bet on outcomes that have already happened!
I can no longer find the market for this though. Does PI close and pay these out so fast? Is there any way to look at closed markets?
Betonline has not paidQuote:
Originally Posted by DalyI’m owed 4K stillQuote:
Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis
I am resigned to Dec 14th with a chance Dec 8th when states have to be finished certifying
Picked up some NO shares at 38 cents in the market "Will Trump file to run before the end of 2021". I think it's pretty overpriced in the 60s. I think it's pretty likely that Trump either announces he'll run for president in 2024 or says he's "looking in to it very strongly". But I think it's unlikely that he actually goes through with filing with the FEC, which is what needs to happen for these shares to resolve YES. Trump always wants to build up suspense and string the media along for as long as possible with "will he/won't he talk". It's what he used to always do with his presidential runs. Why would he kill that suspense by filing right away?
I don't know if he will ultimately run for president, but I see filing to run in 2021 as a pretty big dog. Now please don't compete with me on price too hard because I'm still building a position. If the price crashes, I will dump the shares. I think this is a market that will see a lot of pumps every time Trump goes on TV saying he's very seriously considering a 2024 run because of the disaster job Biden is doing. Buy NO shares on the pumps and then dump them when the market crashes. Rinse. Repeat. Profit.
https://www.predictit.org/markets/de...he-end-of-2021
Certification does not equal official results. Georgia certified their results, and yet they're now doing a recount (which will change nothing). Books won't pay out until litigation ends.Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarBetonline has not paidQuote:
Originally Posted by Daly
I am resigned to Dec 14th with a chance Dec 8th when states have to be finished certifying
Quote:
Originally Posted by PLOLCertification does not equal official results. Georgia certified their results, and yet they're now doing a recount (which will change nothing). Books won't pay out until litigation ends.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
You can’t blame them. God fucking forbid they paid everyone out and then there was a reversal or some court decree.
Be something if the predictit folks closed up shop and declared bankruptcy.
Welp... Bovada paid out today.
Recount in Iowa has become a mess, and now it's about 50-50 as to which candidate will win IA-02. Glad I bailed out of that one at near-peak value.
NY-22 remains very close, but is more likely to stay R.
Oh, and the Michigan market for Trump/Biden opened up (as of last night, at least), and now you can get in and buy shares at 91c Trump NO. Free money if you have cash sitting around on the site, and you don't plan to use it for something else.
One of the many sacrifices I make for your freedom.Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarBetonline has not paidQuote:
Originally Posted by Daly
I am resigned to Dec 14th with a chance Dec 8th when states have to be finished certifying
We have hit the stage where Biden bettors are now upset and looking for compensation because they have missed the runup in BTC
Mybookie is paying out bets... on both sides.
Quote:
Originally Posted by PLOL
This is brilliant. They have already doubled or better most of the BTc deposits so they doubled up money on both candidates and where Biden was 1:2 they really cleaned up.
about 1 out of 9 will be able to roll over the freeplay.
Talk about walking away happy for almost everyone..... but in truth it’s the book that really cleaned up.
How is this possible? Seriously, I'm not a big bettor. Are these people pouring money into Trump winning right now on November 26th?