yeah what the fuck is going on over there exactly?
is this all theater?
what strategic goal is israel pursuing here exactly?
yeah what the fuck is going on over there exactly?
is this all theater?
what strategic goal is israel pursuing here exactly?
AND ANOTHER THING
https://x.com/LordofBathrobes/status...99079743131935
so are you saying these underground uranium enrichment caverns don't exist? (that's what i'm hearing) kinda like the WMD's that never existed...? please explain, sometimes i miss interpret your sarcasm (if that's what you're doing) and don't know how to take some of your statements at times...
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1dollarboxcar
no i think the only pragmatic purpose of this attack was to provoke a situation that the US can justify getting directly involved in. the underground caverns absolutely 100% exist.
perhaps the endgame is to topple the regime and allow a more progressive / less belligerent government to step into its place?
because if thats the case it only happens with US assistance.
Why can’t Israel just cut a check to Palmer Luckey directly?Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
By the way, what economic miracle has their GDP so flush in 2024?
Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarWhy can’t Israel just cut a check to Palmer Luckey directly?Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
By the way, what economic miracle has their GDP so flush in 2024?
wait who iran or israel?
because israeli tech grifter founders are the headlice of the nasdaq.
also the only way youre taking out those bunkers are with low yield nukes in like depleted uranium sabots. it will be another few years before palmer has that access.
Maybe Netanyahu and Trump made a deal where Israel would strike first, so Iran would use up most of their arsenal on them. So when the US comes in Iran has nothing to target US forces with.
As the IRGC is an existential threat to them, Israel has a much larger threshold to accept casualties than the US does. If Iran took out one US bomber it would probably be game over for whatever plan Trump has. His base would revolt and demand we leave.
Given the wide range conflicting responses from the Trump team (particularly Rubio) shortly after the initial attack I think you are attributing 4D chess to the gang. This was Netanyahu and frankly the chances of Israeli success were greater if he operated independently.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kalam
What is success though? Israel tanks aren't rolling into Tehran no matter how well this goes for Israel. So unless they were planning on prompting regime change (which would be nice, but realistically probably a long shot) the IRGC can rebuild/repair/resupply whatever Israel destroys or they use up attacking Israel. So what was the actual goal?Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarGiven the wide range conflicting responses from the Trump team (particularly Rubio) shortly after the initial attack I think you are attributing 4D chess to the gang. This was Netanyahu and frankly the chances of Israeli success were greater if he operated independently.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kalam
its a strange thing the more i think about it.
someone knew about it early enough to scalp the polymarket lines but somehow china didnt mention to iran that they might want to get their senior talent and leadership in hideyholes?
its all so fucking odd.
israel are acting like they sent boots on the ground in but really all they did was clip a few big names. reminds me of when they used a remote control .50 machine gun to assassinate one of the previous nuke scientists but on a much grander scale of course.
maybe its really just as simple as lakud going rogue? we know they gave trump notice tho. and again no one can tell me this was a situation where 'oh iran was minutes away from crafting a nuke' because no one has touched the most critical elements of the iranian nuke program.
i think it was just a feint. and iran hasnt taken the bait by going after american bases in the region, so we cant drop any rods of god on them.
good way to destabilize the regime a bit tho.. i suppose...
You’re more tuned up on this subject than I. Maybe that gives me an advantage.
I’ll offer this. Perhaps this is just an opening gambit leading to more (undetermined as yet) strategic play by Natenyahu.
He is the craftiest player on this stage. We are here to serve.
Any kind of win in Iran and Netanyahu doesn’t have to go into exile after he leaves office. Just keep the Mideast chaos going.
Had to remove a garrett troll post and also remove him from the thread.
garrett, you are welcome to express your distaste for sonatine, but please don't fuck up serious threads with that stuff. You already started a thread recently about hating sonatine (which I let stand), so please do any bashing over there. Thank you.
To me this isn't particularly complicated.
Israel has wanted to do this ever since 10/7/23. With Trump in office, they figured they had a legit shot. By their own admission, this plan has been in the works for 8 months. That puts preparations starting in mid-October 2024 -- right around when it was starting to look like Trump was the favorite to win the election.
I'm guessing Trump has known most of the way -- possibly soon after he got re-elected, and has just been quietly waiting for Israel to make its move. This is actually ideal for the US, because they don't have to send any troops or actively join the war, and at most they will quietly provide funding or weaponry.
According to reports, Iran lost their 3 top nuclear scientists, and the facilities have severely been damaged. If they attempt to repair and restart, the same thing can happen again.
I'm assuming that Israel's goal here is to make Iran realize that they're going to get the shit bombed out of them every time they attempt this nuke program from now on, so not to bother. It's also probably a message along the lines of, "You keep fucking with us? We're gonna fuck with you."
Iran has to be a bit shaken by this. Not only did they lose a number of top IGRC guys, but their own facilities were used against them to disable or destroy their anti-aircraft weaponry, as Mossad apparently gained access to this stuff within Iran, which is crazy.
This was basically punching the bully really hard in the face, knocking him on his ass, and saying, "Stop what you've been doing, or you're getting it much worse next time."
The question becomes what Israel does if Iran puts up more of a retaliation than just firing some rockets into Tel Aviv. If it gets to the point where Israel has to start obliterating Tehran itself from the air, this can get really, really messy. But it's probably a gamble they're willing to take. The alternative is to allow Iran to develop nukes, which will pretty much be game over for Israel's deterrent power in the region.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
yeah this is a strong take.
i think im confused by israel's rhetoric, which is of a very 'we have ended the nuclear threat from iran' timbre and it just has no real basis in reality.
that said, iran has now stated that it will 100% be going after US bases in the coming days/hours and that says to me the bunker busters are coming if we cant just facilitate a regime change and donate all the existing tech to peter thiel.
Iran has to give some response, so the leaders do not look weak.
After the rockets were sent into Tel Aviv, a bunch of state-sponsored Iranian accounts (though not officially listed as such) went into full propaganda mode, taunting Israel and overstating the damage that was caused.
I have no doubt that there will be some kind of attack on the US, but it will likely be minimal enough to where we won't further retaliate. Might be like the 2020 Soleimani situation, where Iran let a US base know that it would be attacked, everyone evacuated, and then rockets hit it. Iran could claim "victory" by hitting a US base with rockets, no US servicemen were hurt, Soleimani was dead, and everyone moved on.
Iran does NOT want to draw the US into actively attacking them. If they make this into a 2025 Pearl Harbor, a very harsh response will come from the US, including possibly full scale war.
Iran is that weird sort of enemy who doesn't want to do anything to seriously antagonize the US, yet at the same time, cannot be made friendlier by olive-branch type overtures or humanitarian aid. They should be regarded as a true enemy of this country, but one which is very afraid of a major military conflict with us.
At the same time, you cannot sleep on Iran, because the only reason they're afraid of a major military conflict right now is because they haven't accomplished their fanatical goals yet of destroying Israel.
theres also a sort of x factor here which is a weird stalemate between the US, russia, china, and iran where we are all completely wormed into each others grids / infrastructure but have a literal soft agreement to never ever drop each other's grids because it takes like half a fucking year to restore them once they get taken down.
and there really isnt a path forward for unrolling that situation because the only logical way to do it would be to swap out vast amounts of hardware with new, trusted units. which would require something like 10 manhattan projects worth of resources at once, just for the US. its just not realistic.
so just like russia has said 'whats to stop us from launching nukes in a world where russia would cease to exist', iran does have a trap card where a collapsing regime facing ionizing radiation leaking from power plants and centrifuges and christ knows what else really could create blackouts in LA and NY and DC that would persist well into winter.
full disclosure this was the lay of the land maybe 5 years ago but i doubt much has changed since then, all things considered.
At this point the IRGC might be seen as a liability to China. China has (had?) a lot of business in the Arab world. But Iran and their proxies destabilizing the region, starting a bunch of wars, getting bootstomped, and getting pushed out seems to have shifted a lot of power to the Sunni Muslim Brotherhood Qatar-Turkey axis and by association the US. China cant be happy about that.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
Seems the way power has shifted Turkey-Qatar-US are going to have the inside track in rebuilding Syria, Lebanon and Gaza; as opposed to Chinese contracts.
China might be looking forward to a post IRGC world where they have a close economic relationship with a more functional Iranian govt that isn't stuck a liability.
We would've needed the GEP B61 Mod 12s had we not developed the MOP aka the GBU-57 which makes the MOAB look like nothing. Problem is only the B2 bomber can carry and drop the thing as its 30k lbs. (its kinda like the Sonatine of bombs). Trump I think is hoping Iran does something stupid, because it makes easy justification to level Iran with a flight of B2s loaded with MOPs, if Iran somehow doesnt derail and go full retard Trumps going to have to figure out an excuse or justification so it doesnt look like Lindsey Graham and the other war mongers have their hand up his asshole.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
The problem is unless Iran's nuclear research facility at Fordow which is deep deep underground and only can be taken out by the GBU57 (or a B61-12 Nuke) is eliminated the Iranians, given there obsession with getting a bomb could be right back to where they were prior to Israels campaign a year from now.
I agree 110% with you. Israel had help from anti mullah groups in Iran to smuggle in all that shit over months setting up this attack. Truth is pretty much all of the Arab countries (dont confuse Iran as it is Persian and totally different ethnicity) want the Shite Mullahs gone. Iran has voiced its own belligerant opinions especially towards KSA. (you literally dont hear a peep from any of the Arab Countries over whats going on be they Abraham Accord signatories or not). People worried about US Boots on the ground are overblowing it big time. Its totally unnecessary. The only US military involvement beyond the current supporting to defend Isreal against the missiles from Iran (anybody notice those sorties are dropping in size signficantly) is taking out Fordow because Israel just doesnt have the ability due to how buried it is in the mountains (not quite as buried as our Cheyanne Mtn complex made famous in Wargames but its damn close).Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatineQuote:
Originally Posted by 1dollarboxcar
no i think the only pragmatic purpose of this attack was to provoke a situation that the US can justify getting directly involved in. the underground caverns absolutely 100% exist.
perhaps the endgame is to topple the regime and allow a more progressive / less belligerent government to step into its place?
because if thats the case it only happens with US assistance.
Israel has their own arsenal. Iran knows it. Iran if they dared detonate a nuke on Israel would be hit with multiple Jericho IIIs which all carry warheads basically in the same range yield as our MM3s (roughly 450kt). Its the bigger picture that you have to look at.. KSA has said clearly if Iran gets nukes they will have their own and it wont take long. The Arab world wants the Mullahs gone because an Iran with nukes would destablize the whole damn middle east and likely spark a nuclear arms race among literally the two of the biggest crude oil exporters in world. Yall think the price of oil and gas is bad now. it doesnt end well if Iran and KSA nuke each others oil fields which would be the likely scenario if they got into a shooting war.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
LOL AGAIN?
That fucking guy just doesn't know when to just shut the fuck up.
SHUT THE FUCK UP GARRETT
So it's getting more likely that the US will take part in a mission to destroy Fordow, then probably back away.
A lot of the woke right (Dave Smith, Candace Owens, Ian Carroll, Tucker Carlson, and their followers) are crying foul about this. However, polling data shows that well over 70% of GOP voters would have no issue with the US assisting in taking out Iran's nuclear capabilities, so Trump doesn't have much to worry about.
Who polled this? Generally curious. I’ve seen a number of polls and all were below 50% of GOP.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
I imagine the devil is in the exact wording of the question. I have to imagine this one was super narrow. Most I have saw were do you support the US intervening in the war. This must be a bombing only with zero commitment to do a single other thing.
This is what I expect him to do. Especially since we haven’t done it yet. It seems he is saying go bomb all you want to bomb and we will be the last action.
At least that’s his intention, but once you do it, who knows what it starts?
It won’t cause regime change or any of the other things many want. I don’t think they even have a nuclear weapon anyway or are particularly close, but it won’t hurt him politically too bad to bomb an underground facility if he’s done with it and can extricate us. The 30% would hurt a lot if it held, but likely won’t. The GOP is likely to get hammered in the mid terms anyway with how things are trending and how poorly the administration in power usually does. But that will be as much about his stupid beautiful bill which is garbage and super unpopular as opposed to this action.
Thats right, folks. The lefties on this forum are free to troll. Protected class. But righties shut the fuck up. Do you lefties give druff head for the privileges? Thought so.Quote:
Originally Posted by Gordman
Gourdman is the, ahem, head-master.
But it is entertaining watching retarded left wingnuts debating shit they know nothing about.
Don't criticize the cuisine before dinner is served.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimmThats right, folks. The lefties on this forum are free to troll. Protected class. But righties shut the fuck up. Do you lefties give druff head for the privileges? Thought so.Quote:
Originally Posted by Gordman
Gourdman is the, ahem, head-master.
But it is entertaining watching retarded left wingnuts debating shit they know nothing about.
Go write another tutorial on how to obtain food stamps and be a fucking parasite on society like you were when you were actually an able bodied man. Just write it on the free breakfast comp forum. No one here gives a fuck about the opinion of some dying crippled food stamps hobo.
Garrett already gets his government handout every month. He doesn’t need your instructional advice.
Quit playing the victim for the thousandth time here and wheel yourself back to wherever you came from.
Like I said, druff. You give these maggot libtard punks free reign to troll while stifling those they attack. It has to stop. You need to quit protecting these maggots and clean this place up.Quote:
Originally Posted by BCRQuote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
Go write another tutorial on how to obtain food stamps and be a fucking parasite on society like you were when you were actually an able bodied man. Just write it on the free breakfast comp forum. No one here gives a fuck about the opinion of some dying crippled food stamps hobo.
Garrett already gets his government handout every month. He doesn’t need your instructional advice.
Quit playing the victim for the thousandth time here and wheel yourself back to wherever you came from.
BCR will be over later to give you head.
Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimmLike I said, druff. You give these maggot libtard punks free reign to troll while stifling those they attack. It has to stop. You need to quit protecting these maggots and clean this place up.Quote:
Originally Posted by BCR
Fuck you old man. Quit crying to Druff. He can’t help it you’re retarded and continually embarrass yourself and then play the victim.
Garett didn’t get shut down because of any political opinions you senile moron. He isn’t really political. He has TBI and went on a manic spree posting 200 times one after another. Nothing political, just rambling. Yet you derail a thread to play the victim and whine like a bitch. Constantly the victim. Druff isn’t your social worker or rep from the Montana agency on aging. It’s not his fault you get your ass kicked in every thread you enter.
Stop crying you useless pussyQuote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimmLike I said, druff. You give these maggot libtard punks free reign to troll while stifling those they attack. It has to stop. You need to quit protecting these maggots and clean this place up.Quote:
Originally Posted by BCR
BCR will be over later to give you head.
Well, Druff, you can certainly see how interested the PFA libfags are in keeping this a serious thread lol
put the cost of R & D for all bunker busters on Israel's tab.
Air craft carriers, bill Israel for half the cost.
This new Iron Dome Trump wants over America, I suspect it's acrually for Israel. It's just a clever way to get the US tto pay for it.
The F35 is the most costly military project in history, put that on Israel's tab too.
Can you imagine if we spent a fraction of that on improving Amereica
Holy shit the foot stamps king is still crying like a bitch when he derailed thread to whine about Garrett being banned for his politics.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
No. You can thank Bush II for overthrowing Saddam and creating a power vacuum in the region.Quote:
Originally Posted by desertrunner
You've derailed hundreds of threads with your sniveling negativity. You just can't get away from sniveling like a little bitch everyday....along with spreading misinformation. Your cup is always half empty while everyone else's is half full. You bring nothing but negativity to this forum everyday.Quote:
Originally Posted by BCRHoly shit the foot stamps king is still crying like a bitch when he derailed thread to whine about Garrett being banned for his politics.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
But the worst thing you do is spread disinformation. Like your false claim that fascism is a right wing ideology. Of course, I think your truly believe it. Because your socialist puppet masters revised history to make you believe it came from conservatism. You are their useful dupe, idiot. You want to believe it so badly. Because your whole world will fall apart if it isn't true.
Fascism came from socialism, dupe. There are those of us that don't fall for the revisionist history. A 45 second clip:
https://x.com/i/status/1935440905684795789
I’m not going to argue with some dementia case. Anyone who finished high school can understand why it’s a right wing ideology more than left. I’m not going to explain it to some dropout hobo
Here is grok
Fascists are typically classified as right-wing due to their emphasis on nationalism, hierarchy, and traditional social structures, which align with conservative values. They prioritize strong state control, often led by a charismatic leader, and advocate for economic policies that blend private enterprise with state intervention, rejecting both liberal individualism and socialist collectivism. Historically, fascist movements like Mussolini’s Italy and Hitler’s Germany opposed left-wing ideologies such as communism and socialism, targeting them as enemies, which further cements their right-wing association.
However, the label can oversimplify things. Fascism doesn’t fit neatly on a linear political spectrum, as it borrows elements from both sides—e.g., state control from the left and cultural traditionalism from the right. Its core is authoritarianism and suppression of dissent, which can transcend traditional left-right divides. Still, the right-wing tag sticks because of fascism’s historical alliances with conservative elites and its appeal to nationalist and anti-egalitarian sentiments.
Grok was programmed by socialists. Mussolini was a life long socialist. Hell, he was the leader of the Italian Socialist Party for years. Grok can't change that, only tell socialist revisionist history that your dumb stupid ass believes. Conservatism has always been about freedom, not control that the left wants and needs so desperately. God you're stupid. Do some real research, you dumb fuck.Quote:
Originally Posted by BCR
As someone who was already a college graduate and paying taxes while you were a 40 year old able bodied man eating off my tax dollars, I am exercising my freedom to not also educate you further as it’s a waste of time to educate someone terminally ill. Have you no pride? Hasn’t society given you enough handouts? We have to cut you off now Mickey Foodstamps
You are so easy to trigger.Quote:
Originally Posted by BCR
I went to sea at the age of 16 working in the engine room of a freighter. In the 70's I had a desk job with the State of Alaska. In the 80's I was a bartender. In the late 80's I switched to the Alaska Fisheries where I was working when I decided to pursue poker in the early 90's.
You are so easy to trigger.
I made it in gambling. You didn't. You failed at poker. It chewed you up and spit you out. They called you Deadmoney behind your back. Your best game was a short-handed game. But you could never find one. Every time you sat down the table filled up. You washed out because you didn't have the intelligence to pull it off. Same as sonatine.
You're the bum here with a worthless degree. And a heroin habit. You sure do know a lot about food stamps. How much do you draw per month?
Nothing worse than a junkie sniveling to the public everyday.